Has the Mesan Alignment already lost?

Well according to the theory of narrative causality ... Yes! Its a pretty much a given.

My question is weither their big galactic take over plan has already been scuppered by recent and past events and now simply cannot work, and the only thing left to see is how much damage they cause on the way out.

Consider: -
1) The big secret of their existance has been blown wide open long before they were ready. Albrecht has already said they are not out of Stage 1, and no one was supposed to get even a hint about them until Stage 3.

2) Oyster Bay was done much earlier than intended. It was intended to be a big knockout blow to both Manticore nd Haven, but they went too early after the 1st BofM and have thus tipped their hands even without Ziliwicki and Cachats outting them. Plus the Sollies wouldnt have been able to finish the job quickly even if Haven hadnt joined the Manties.

3) The Grand Alliance now acts as a much more well known and likely more profitable/reassurring future power hub than the Renaissance Factor. They have proved they are more militarily powerful than the League, they are in a better position to help and support other systems via the Wormhole network they control, and they are a known quantity. The League has been static and power bases so estabilished for so long, that a bunch of new people popping up and saying "the league doesnt work, lets get together and be the new power block" is likely to scare off many other systems that the Alignment hasnt already got its claws on.

4) Albrecht has said the Factor is intended to be a helpful and beneficent group in the chaos of the leagues collapse. The MA's plan depended therefore on their ability to control the chaos. But with the GA now in place and with so much proven economic and military power, its likely that the MA's new power structure will now no longer work as planned. Many of their first intended targets will probably sign up and trigger the Leagues true collapse, the Alignments too smart and been planning so long that that part will probably work well. But then as they try to gather up the rest of the system, "the Manticore factor" for screwing up plans will begin to play in and the Factor will end up looking like a just another group playing for grabs in the chaos, not a grand new future for humanity that the MA intended.

I am not saying the GA is likely to become the new Solarian League and rule the galaxy as a massive power house. They have the Leagues history to show them that wouldnt work. But looking over the series my opinion is that the Mesan Alignments grand plan became unhinged almost as soon as they began to move. They first appeared in the main series in At All Costs and the seed of their plans failures pretty much started as soon as Giancolas manipulations became suspect in the next novel.

Its in Webers hands now were the story goes ... and given his attitude on the costs of war its likely the body count will be very high and more beloved characters will be lost. The smart thing for the Alignment to do would be to get back into the shadows and wait, but we all know that they cant. I just hope the damage they cause before going down wont be too costly.

Valen123456 wrote:Well according to the theory of narrative causality ... Yes! Its a pretty much a given.

My question is weither their big galactic take over plan has already been scuppered by recent and past events and now simply cannot work, and the only thing left to see is how much damage they cause on the way out.

...

No, I don't think the MAlign has lost. The haven't even lost this round -- yet.

The MAlign has been manipulating events from the shadows for something like 600 years. A minor detail like having their main plan for universal domination isn't going to destroy them; Even the discovery of Darius and the destruction of the entire Detweiler clan won't kill the roots of the MAlign. It may take another 600 years, but the MAlign is like the villian in a slasher movie franchise; no matter how thoroughly he's destroyed there's always another sequel.

Hmmmm. Let's think about the people currently making up the "Mesa is SO DEAD" list.

Elizabeth Winton, Eloise Pritchart, Thomas Theisman, Honor Harrington, Lester Tourville, Molly DeLaney, Allen Higgins, Benjamin Mayhew, Judah Yanakov, Warner Caslet, Victor Cachat, Mark Brentworth, Thomas Greentree, Hamish Alexander-Harrington, Emily Alexander-Harrington, Alfred Harrington, Jacques Benton-Ramirez y Chou, Jennifer Bellefeuille, Oliver Diamato, Sonja Hemphill, Shannon Foraker, Alfredo Yu, Abigail Hearns, Helen Zilwicki, Naomi Kaplan, Aivars Terekhov, Augustus Khumalo, Estelle Matsuko, Michelle Henke, Jacob Zavala, Michael Oversteegen, Linda Trenis, Tom Caparelli, Patricia Givens, Anton Zilwicki, Ruth Winton, Thandi Palane, the entire Royal Manticoran Navy, the entire Republic of Haven Navy, and the entire Grayson Space Navy. Not to mention the Kingdom of Torch, Oravil Barregos, Luis Roszak, Beowulf, the Andermani Empire, and the galaxy's entire population of treecats.

....yeah, I'd say they've already lost.

roseandheather wrote:Hmmmm. Let's think about the people currently making up the "Mesa is SO DEAD" list.

Elizabeth Winton, Eloise Pritchart, Thomas Theisman, Honor Harrington, Lester Tourville, Molly DeLaney, Allen Higgins, Benjamin Mayhew, Judah Yanakov, Warner Caslet, Victor Cachat, Mark Brentworth, Thomas Greentree, Hamish Alexander-Harrington, Emily Alexander-Harrington, Alfred Harrington, Jacques Benton-Ramirez y Chou, Jennifer Bellefeuille, Oliver Diamato, Sonja Hemphill, Shannon Foraker, Alfredo Yu, Abigail Hearns, Helen Zilwicki, Naomi Kaplan, Aivars Terekhov, Augustus Khumalo, Estelle Matsuko, Michelle Henke, Jacob Zavala, Michael Oversteegen, Linda Trenis, Tom Caparelli, Patricia Givens, Anton Zilwicki, Ruth Winton, Thandi Palane, the entire Royal Manticoran Navy, the entire Republic of Haven Navy, and the entire Grayson Space Navy. Not to mention the Kingdom of Torch, Oravil Barregos, Luis Roszak, Beowulf, the Andermani Empire, and the galaxy's entire population of treecats.

....yeah, I'd say they've already lost.

So what? Mesa was always intended to be a sacrificial pawn, so now it's been sacrificed. As far as the MAlign is concerned, the more time and effort people have to put into rescuing the mess they left behind in Mesa, the less energy they have to put into going after them.

The most likely place the MAlign headquarters moved to is Darius. So let's assume they've moved somewhere else, like, oh, say an artificial habitat located somewhere in the alpha band of hyperspace.

This gives Albrecht time to call a meeting and say: "OK folks, we need Plan B. Ideas?"

Valen123456 wrote:Its in Webers hands now were the story goes ... and given his attitude on the costs of war its likely the body count will be very high and more beloved characters will be lost. The smart thing for the Alignment to do would be to get back into the shadows and wait, but we all know that they cant. I just hope the damage they cause before going down wont be too costly.

Yeah, that would be my argument, too. Duck and cover for another 300-400 years, disappearing completely and if necessary, sacrificing the RF to satisfy the GA.

Then let people start to forget about the evil nasty MAlignment (guessing that individuals won't have longer memories in the future than they do today), while re-building their organs of control, and bring the new power centers into conflict and confusion.

But that is...unlikely, due to Anton's research in Mesa in Cauldron of Ghosts and the survival of Drs. Care and Wix and that peculiar 'bump' in the Torch wormhole.

So we shall see. Eventually.

First off, the usual dis qualifiers. I do not have the physical time to research and deliver specific time frames and events. Too little daily time. This Excellent Forum must compete with other Forums. Hope you all understand.

I look at it differently. Who can hurt the Grand Alliance, (GA) and how badly and when? The Sollies have painted themselves into a horrible corner. They must respond to the GA, (mostly Mantie) defenses and successes BY ATTACKING.

But...direct Sollie attacks do not work. But wars can be fought by other means. Kinetic planetary strikes? How badly could the GA be shattered by last ditch successes by the Sollies ... even with no chance for a Sollie victory?

Then what about the Mal-alignment? (MA) They pulled off Oyster Bay. What else do they have in their shot locker? How easy do they want to go into the night? How bad could the war become for the GA? Wow! Very ugly indeed. Just me.

No rules. No laws. No morality. Just vindictive destruction. Plagues. Kinetic strikes. Poison the wells. Salt the fields. Lots of historical references. Punic wars? Things could get very very nasty for all sides quickly.

YIKES indeed! HB of CJ (old coot) Cm. I love this Excellent Forum. Just fun easy thinking! (sometimes overly morbid)

Interesting topic. I don't know if it's a foregone conclusion but certainly the Alignment's original plans have been disrupted and will need to be altered.

The formation of the GA might almost be more disastrous than the Alignment getting "outed" before it was ready. It was a concentration of power that the Alignment's planners couldn't have foreseen. It also represents another player that has the strength to stand up to the League and the Alignment.

However, the Alignment still has some advantages. The main one being that no-one in the GA really knows where it is or who comprises it. I doubt Mike will find much on Mesa given that Houdini went through and the GA still has no idea about any of the Alignment's special ship types (potentially aside from what they suspect about how the Yawata Strike was carried out). Darius remains completely black and no one on the other side has even a hint as to its whereabouts.

There are certainly interesting times ahead. As much as I would love for the MA to be stomped flat I don't think it will be so clear-cut. It would be boring to read about the GA just rolling over the MA (not to mention it would require too much suspension of disbelief on the part of the readers). I want the MA to put up a fight to make it interesting (which they will) I just don't want the good guys to get too smashed up in the process. Lol.

I honestly expect the GA (especially the SEM) to mess up the MAlign's plans a fair amount, but I also expect the MAlign to mess up the GA's (especially the SEM and Honor) plans a fair about too.

The MAlign knows it's being hunted now, they have to expect that, so they will make every effort to keep eyes away from them and set out a LOT of distractions while they build their forces.

While the GA knows the MAlign is out there. Somewhere... but it can't be seen using a 500 kilo hammer to smash everything it thinks is the Malign. Given its reputation the GA (SEM and RH specifically) -have- to use a lot of discretion or they will turn the opinion of a LOT of the Solarian systems against them. In other words, given the size of the hammer the GA has, they have to be damned selective and positive of their target before they start swatting flies. They just can't start smashing everything that looks like a threat or that they think is the MAlign.

That said, I think the GA will mess up the MAlign's plans more than the MAlign will the GA's, but I think it's very possible the GA (SEM) will have to accept some rump Solarian states larger than they want or would prefer, otherwise the GA looks like the neo-barbarians they have been painted as by smashing -any- possible military rival above a certain size.

So has the MAlign lost? Yes. More or less. But I don't think it will lose as bad as some people think.

Amaroq wrote:The formation of the GA might almost be more disastrous than the Alignment getting "outed" before it was ready. It was a concentration of power that the Alignment's planners couldn't have foreseen. It also represents another player that has the strength to stand up to the League and the Alignment.

On the contrary, the GA or at least an alliance between Haven and Manticore has been the target of the MAlign for a century or so. Starting with the rise of the Legislaturalists and Dolists in Haven to the assassination of King Roger, they've done everything they could to keep Haven and Manticore hostile to each other.

The MAlign has one big advantage: it's a single force and not a coalition. It's techniques of using diplomatic judo throws to turn a much stronger opponent against itself will probably be applied in spades. The difficulty will be that they don't have the deeplai s groundwork that they did in the Solarian League.