Speculating on the GA-MAlign Conflict

SWM wrote:

Arol wrote:Am posting the following here as it is; with a bit of latitude, a part of the MAN-GA conflict, and by reading other threads, speculation on future events is encouraged.
Just finished ART, with a Sollie attack to take out Beowulf before Manticore can react is being contemplated.
Now if my remembrance of the timeline is correct; sometime it’s hard to be clear on who’s where when, Beowulf should have Moriaty on line as well as the MDM assembly line up and running
Ergo, the Sollie fleet is toast!
But it might have a stinger in its tail as it withdraws! A Alignment nano infected dupe at the right place and time activates and fires a KEW strike at the planet.
A win-win scenario seen from an Alignments viewpoint.
If successful, a poke in the eye of their hated enemy Beowulf, and if a Sollie ship-of-war is seen violating the  Epsilon Eridani Edict it can only increase dissatisfaction within the League.
,

We do think the assembly lines will be up and running, but it is not clear that Moriarty will be up and running in Beowulf. However, I think everyone who has commented here is confident that the attacking League fleet loses badly in the confrontation. There has been speculation on how it would happen, in particular whether Manticore would need to jump in from the Wormhole to help.

The idea that the Alignment might arrange an apparent Edict violation has been suggested several times, and there are people who believe it will happen or that it might be tried. Others have argued that the Alignment doesn't want to destroy Beowulf, they want to discredit Beowulf and their policy. And a number of people, including David, have pointed out that the Alignment is a band of bloodthirsty mass-murderers (though they do employ such from time to time).

Huh. I got the impression that Moriarty was being placed in the Beowulf system specifically because it was likely to be attacked by the SLN and that it would take about 2 months to get all of the installations in place and up and running. Which would place it in time for a live fire test on the SLN invasion fleet. It's going to take 2-3 months to get enough SLN SDs, DDs, CAs and other ships to have a chance at punching out the Beowulf SDF.

JohnRoth wrote: I like being mysterious. However, since the comment was about the Felix junction, you can assume it's about wormholes and junctions. A close reading will turn it up; it's not like I had to get all Kabalistic and use gematria or anything like that.

SWM wrote:The problem is that there are several things that people have noticed and discussed before about wormholes and junctions based on that text. We don't know which one you are talking about.

I suspect that it is the possibility of direct transit from one terminus to another, without going through the central junction. But it could be the possibility of predicting the destination of a wormhole without traveling through it. I don't think you are talking about the Solarian League's policy of granting a special form of protectorate status for independent systems with wormholes, or the fact that five termini exist within League territory.

Hutch wrote:First, Syed, thanks for the link: I had to cut your comment out to appease the Quotation Gods.

Second, I suspect you're right, SWM, in regards to John's message. I was also struck by the words:

In theory, for example, one should be able to go from any terminus of a wormhole junction directly to any other.

That could be a bit of a game-changer, if anyone ever figured out how to do it(Hmmm, I wonder what Dr. Kare and Dr. Wix have been doing...)

Well, eventually John will tell us if we are right or not--or we'll beat it out of him (with Grayson-approved baseball bats, of course... )

It's the one about avoiding having to stop at the central nexus, of course. It has the potential to punch a big hole in Manticore's finances. It would also let the MAlign go between Darius and The Twins without passing Felix, but I don't see that as being important.

I'd forgotten about the one about finding the other end without having to transit it, however I don't think MWW would use that at this time: it would make finding The Twins, Felix and Darius too easy to support a few more books.

Arol wrote:A Alignment nano infected dupe at the right place and time activates and fires a KEW strike at the planet.

I don't think that's a scenario that can be accomplished with the Assassin-nano. There would be too many variables involved that can't be programmed into muscle memory.

That presumes that Dr Alfred Harrington correctly deduced the way the Assassin-nano works and that Honor didn't garble the explanation.

SAy you could travel directly between secondary terminii, i wonder if it would allow a worm hole to be fully surveyed quicker? THey could use such a method to hide a junction and simply claim it is a bridge.

So no junctions in the league just termiinii. Felix cahnges that. We know five of the terminii in league space. THe thing is isnt the visigoth junction in league space, or is the fact they are independant.

It is said that th manticore junction may yet have unknown terminii, i wonder if the malignment might have a secret back door into the system, just waiting to be found

Weird Harold wrote:I don't think that's a scenario that can be accomplished with the Assassin-nano. There would be too many variables involved that can't be programmed into muscle memory.

That presumes that Dr Alfred Harrington correctly deduced the way the Assassin-nano works and that Honor didn't garble the explanation.

If the firing solution could be compressed into a macro, activated by a few keystrokes, then it fall within the parameters outlined by the good doctor, (again, depending on Honor’s second hand retelling).

Arol wrote:If the firing solution could be compressed into a macro, activated by a few keystrokes, then it fall within the parameters outlined by the good doctor, (again, depending on Honor’s second hand retelling).

Activating a macro isn't the problem, it's creating the macro (targeting solutions) -- especially since the starting location wouldn't be known until the assassin-nano was triggered.

Zakharra wrote: Huh. I got the impression that Moriarty was being placed in the Beowulf system specifically because it was likely to be attacked by the SLN and that it would take about 2 months to get all of the installations in place and up and running. Which would place it in time for a live fire test on the SLN invasion fleet. It's going to take 2-3 months to get enough SLN SDs, DDs, CAs and other ships to have a chance at punching out the Beowulf SDF.

Yes, people have guessed that it would take only a couple months to install Moriarty. But some have suggested that the League could have a fleet at Beowulf sooner than that. After all, they had a fleet ready to go after Manticore, and we don't know what was done with it. So the question is how soon can the League attack?

Arol wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:I don't think that's a scenario that can be accomplished with the Assassin-nano. There would be too many variables involved that can't be programmed into muscle memory.

That presumes that Dr Alfred Harrington correctly deduced the way the Assassin-nano works and that Honor didn't garble the explanation.

If the firing solution could be compressed into a macro, activated by a few keystrokes, then it fall within the parameters outlined by the good doctor, (again, depending on Honor’s second hand retelling).

Re-targeting the KEWs to hit the planet (no self respecting SDF would have its weapons trained/targeted on their homeworld) would be beyond the ability of the assassin nanites. There's also the difficulty of getting the DNA of the right person, then getting him/her infected right before the operation, then have everything happen just right so they can target the planet. The SLN fleet is more likely to be so targeted, but the events there would be even more chaotic in planning exactly when and how to fire since it's very unlikely there would be any preset targeting orders aimed for the planet itself. The Mandarins and SLN will be looking to -not- hit the planet as it would look very bad for themselves if they basically nuked Beowulf. It would also be hard to assume that the right ships would survive intact. In this raid, it's likely most if not all of the SLN ships are going to be mauled.

The SLN plan will come apart soon after it crosses the hyper line. It's not going to go anywhere near how the SLN or the MAlign have planned. The MAlign would be better off somehow making nanites that make someone suffer an irrational and very intense hatred/rage at a major enemy, then gas an entire SD with it so the crew of the SD is more likely to say 'Screw this. Eat missiles traitors!" and launch a full spread at Beowulf.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: Huh. I got the impression that Moriarty was being placed in the Beowulf system specifically because it was likely to be attacked by the SLN and that it would take about 2 months to get all of the installations in place and up and running. Which would place it in time for a live fire test on the SLN invasion fleet. It's going to take 2-3 months to get enough SLN SDs, DDs, CAs and other ships to have a chance at punching out the Beowulf SDF.

Yes, people have guessed that it would take only a couple months to install Moriarty. But some have suggested that the League could have a fleet at Beowulf sooner than that. After all, they had a fleet ready to go after Manticore, and we don't know what was done with it. So the question is how soon can the League attack?

Minor quibble regarding installing Moriarty in the Beowulf system: It will take forever.

Because Moriarty (Republic of Haven Navy light-speed system defense missile control) is NOT being installed in the Beowulf system.

Mycroft (Royal Manticoran Navy Keyhole II-Apollo faster-than-light system defense missile control) IS being installed in the Beowulf system. (As of the end of A Rising Thunder.)

Zakharra wrote:
Re-targeting the KEWs to hit the planet (no self respecting SDF would have its weapons trained/targeted on their homeworld) would be beyond the ability of the assassin nanites. There's also the difficulty of getting the DNA of the right person, then getting him/her infected right before the operation, then have everything happen just right so they can target the planet. The SLN fleet is more likely to be so targeted, but the events there would be even more chaotic in planning exactly when and how to fire since it's very unlikely there would be any preset targeting orders aimed for the planet itself. The Mandarins and SLN will be looking to -not- hit the planet as it would look very bad for themselves if they basically nuked Beowulf. It would also be hard to assume that the right ships would survive intact. In this raid, it's likely most if not all of the SLN ships are going to be mauled.

The SLN plan will come apart soon after it crosses the hyper line. It's not going to go anywhere near how the SLN or the MAlign have planned. The MAlign would be better off somehow making nanites that make someone suffer an irrational and very intense hatred/rage at a major enemy, then gas an entire SD with it so the crew of the SD is more likely to say 'Screw this. Eat missiles traitors!" and launch a full spread at Beowulf.

Yes, I don't think that nanite installed macro could effectively cause an SLN weapons officer to fire KEWs at Beowulf. However, it would be much easier to reprogram some of the Cataphract pods that TIY is going to supply the attacking fleet with.

The SLN comes sailing across the hyperlimit, they make it into range of the BSDF, fire the pods, and a dozen launch straight for the planet rather then the fleet. At that point, I doubt that the BSDF would be accepting surrenders, so nobody to say "we didn't do it!" And even if all of the missiles were stopped, I don't think that the League would stand together for long. And if they were not stopped, so much for the GA ship assembly plan.

Not saying its going to happen, but I could see somebody on Darius coming up with the idea.