Battle of Manticore

The Battle of Manticore has always puzzled me. If the cavalry hadn't arrived, in the form of one Sally Mander, Manticore's goose would have been stuffed with their chestnuts and cooked. Yet, Harrington had those godawful battle changing missiles. Now I know there was a production bottleneck resulting in a limited supply. What puzzles me is the decision to deploy all of the missiles aboard Honor's ship. All?! It just seems to me that the first consideration should have been the Home System. Now, McKeon had a few, but the Home System and Home Fleet had none? Do you not protect your Queen first?

In the simple game of Stratego you must protect your flag. If you forward deploy your main assets then you are toast if/when the enemy penetrates your line and places you in a pickle of a jam. I don't like pickle and jam on toast. In chess, you hold back your rooks to protect your rear. I am simply saying, the decision to forward deploy all of the missiles could have been the wrong decision. Would have been. Almost was.

Moreover, I wonder about Haven's decision to attack Manticore before eliminating Grayson. Grayson would have been filleted — its backbone removed! So what, if Manticore would have been warned of a Case Zulu; what could it have done differently? Recall Honor to fulfill Home Fleet's job?

Disclaimer:
I'm just using Stratego and Chess as examples to make a point. Not to suggest that the strategy and tactics of such epic space battles are in any way analogous to simple board games.

Yes, there are a few... inconsistencies in the Battle of Manticore, or so some users like to say.

The quick and dirty explanation for the lack of Apollo pods in Home and Third Fleets is that all Keyhole-2 ships were assigned to Eighth Fleet and being the only platform specifically designed for Apollo, was the only destination for produced Apollo pods. They did use quite a few of them up at Lovat - any surplus would have been mainly reloaded into Eighth Fleet's emptied pod cores and any ammunition ships operating in support of it. The Apollo stockpile may even have been in the secured military anchorage of Trevor's Star.

Also, not having KH2 meant Third Fleet(with the exception of McKeon's ships) and Home Fleet couldn't use the FTL component of Apollo even if they had it, substantially reducing its effectiveness against Havenite units, even with the fire control multiplier(theoretically 8*). It wouldn't have prevented Home Fleet's destruction - but might have reduced the damage done to Third Fleet by destroying more of Second Fleet.

That's if seeing Home Fleet firing what appears to be an Apollo-pattern missile salvo doesn't bluff Tourville into breaking off or surrendering!

Given the fact that Manticore was still working hard to increase her ship numbers in the wake of Haven's surprise attacks, the RMN couldn't afford to lose any more ships as happened during the battle in which Michelle was captured.

At the same time, Manticore HAD to keep the pressure on Haven, in order to keep the RHN from regrouping and going on the offensive once again (again, because with near-parity in technology, Haven still had a distinct advantage in hull numbers and tonnage).

The best way to keep Haven on the defensive without exposing Manticoran ships to destruction or severe damage, was by equipping the RMN's sole offensive force with a weapon that would give it (8th Fleet) tactical superiority. That is why 8th Fleet received Apollo first and NOT Home Fleet (as well as any available Keyhole-equipped SD(P)s, of course, since the two kind of go together).

I"m one of the biggest whiners about BoM, and I'll say that David's explanation for Apollo deployment and revelation seems perfectly reasonable.

The idea that Haven would throw essentially their entire fleet at Manticore was not considered significantly probable (or they would have kept 8th fleet on the right side of the WHJ, as well as made other adjustments.) So while home fleet made some rather puzzling choices in how to fight, the fact that they didn't have Apollo isn't one. If they did have (even without FTL control) they would have pretty much obliterated 2nd fleet, though they would have still been crushed by the return fire. That wouldn't have made a very good book, now would it have?

Essentially Haven managed to hit at a very good point in time for them, but not one quite good enough. If they had waited a week or three, until 8th was on another raid, then things would have been very bad. Another few months and Apollo would have been on the fortresses and 8th would be about to drop in on Haven.

As had been noted by previous posts, 8th Fleet was Manticore's offensive arm. After Lovat, the plan was to execute a raid on an even juicer target --Jouett in hopes of convincing the Republic that Apollo was even more widely 8 than it was. 8th Fleet was reinforced by the Andermani and what 8th was doing when Tourville appeared over the hyper wall was exercising at Trevor's Star, intergrating the Andermani in prep for the raid on Jouett.

No one believed that after the raid on Lovat, Theisman would have the nerve to commit the major portion of the RHN to a full throated attack on Manticore's home system. But they were mistaken because Theisman properly deduced that Apollo hadn't yet been widely deployed. It was only luck of the draw that 8th Fleet was there to intervene, even though that intervention happened at the last minute. Honor could have been on her way to Jouett, and wouldn't that have been peachy.

Bad judgment in Manticore's part? Not really. Home Fleet had about 100 of the wall, half of which were SDPs. Also backing up Home Fleet was Kuzak's fleet of 60 SDPs at Trevor's Star for backup through the junction. That should have been proof against anything Haven would have had the nerve to do, particularly after Apollo's unveiling at Lovat. But Theisman did the inconceivable and rolled the dice. Had he made the same move prior to Apollo, Haven would have won the war. Manticore was also right to send 8th Fleet out on the offensive with the best weapons tech available. Not to have done so would have cost Manticore the strategic initiative completely and the war just as surely as if Haven had won the BoM.

Don

cthia wrote:
Moreover, I wonder about Haven's decision to attack Manticore before eliminating Grayson. Grayson would have been filleted — its backbone removed! So what, if Manticore would have been warned of a Case Zulu; what could it have done differently? Recall Honor to fulfill Home Fleet's job?

I'm not going to get into a discussion of what I think of AAC because I'm sure that's been done to death a dozen times before, but I will have a go at this point. I think attacking Grayson first is a terrible idea.

Sure, you can take Grayson. No doubt about that. But it's going to cost you. I don't know what sort of weight the Grayson version of Home Fleet is, but you can bet that it's a pretty solid block of SDs. I don't think you get out of there without losing somewhere between 50-100 SDs of your own (properly killed or sent home for repairs, doesn't matter) and that sort of loss significantly affects your ability to take Manticore at all.

Plus you'd lose both your strategic surprise (holy carp there's 400 SDs in a fleet that just pasted Grayson!) plus your tactical surprise (AND they fired a billion missiles at once!) which is going to make actually finishing the job way harder.

Taking Grayson out doesn't end the war. It's not worth the cost / risk. Grayson will sign your peace treaty without too much fuss if you can force Manticore to surrender.

Yeah. That was Manticore's Mistake.
That was what proved that Theisman and Tourville (not
to mention Girard) were still better strategists than
White Haven and Capparelli. The Manties were great at
offense, but not so good at defence.
(Many chessplayers are like that too. In fact, the
ability to save a draw is what separates Grandmasters
from mere Masters.)

Haven had to have some advantage, you know.
There it is!
DW has consistently infodumped about Haven's advantage
in Grand Strategy for a dozen years now.

Me, I fantasy Tourville talking to Harrington after his
capture: "How could you not expect this? How could you
not defend against this? Wasn't it obvious, after you
beat and killed Girard with so few warships, that our
only choices were to try to beat you before you built
more of them, or else surrender immediately?!"

When GA organizes Grand Fleet,
Tourville will be second in command!

HTM

cthia wrote:The Battle of Manticore has always puzzled me. If the cavalry hadn't arrived, in the form of one Sally Mander, Manticore's goose would have been stuffed with their chestnuts and cooked. Yet, Harrington had those godawful battle changing missiles. Now I know there was a production bottleneck resulting in a limited supply. What puzzles me is the decision to deploy all of the missiles aboard Honor's ship. All?! It just seems to me that the first consideration should have been the Home System. Now, McKeon had a few, but the Home System and Home Fleet had none? Do you not protect your Queen first?
[snip - htm]

Liege and Lady. These are your first priority.

The RMN implementing the strategy that it did was a roll of the dice. However, it was a chance that I personally do not think was worth it. The benefit was not worth the risk, IMHO. You do not uncover your Home System. Now before that statement causes apoplexy, an attempt to elucidate.

Of course, the Manticore system was not technically uncovered. However, humor me and consider the definition of one's Home System always being properly protected by the latest and greatest superior technology available, then the Home System was left uncovered. On no level should Home system have been left threadbare. And as per the latest and greatest technology, it was threadbare.

I read the Pearls. I understand the Pearls. The RMN was considering:

1. Strategic initiative. Important, but not worth losing your Home system. Losing your Home system, checkmate.
2. From the very beginning, the Alliance had been determined to demonstrate to Haven that they were prepared to operate/risk their latest and best ships and weapons in deep-raiding operations.
An extension of the above. Not worth losing Home system.
3. Forcing Haven to redeploy and preventing them from hosting the offensive.
While strategically important, it is not as strategically important as your own Home system.

In war, there are risks, risks that must be borne. These risks are weighed, 'possible gains against possible loss.' Risking Trevor's Star is acceptable. Risking Grayson, is possibly acceptable. Risking the Home system, is not acceptable.

The RMN knew that Haven was numerically superior. It is this numerical superiority that drove Sonja Hemphill's direction in hardware R&D — force multiplying technology. Enjoying numerical superiority, one strategy one always, always considers, is an attritional win. Very basic. For a successful navy as is the RMN to not consider an attritional strategy donned by Haven is ludicrous; especially when the snake is cornered, and especially considering that the snake is (materially) 'attritionally' superior. It is what armies have done since the beginning of time. Attritional wars. It is what Crandall attempted with her superior numbers. Even though she was wrong, to her it didn't feel wrong. In fact, to Crandall it felt most logical. It is what the SLN attempted once more in the Second Battle of Manticore — an attritional win. So how could the RMN, not allow for that possibility? It is basic war 101. You can glean that from Sun Tzu cliff notes.

The timing of Sanskrit was such that the Admiralty could be virtually certain that Eighth Fleet could launch Sanskrit, hit the Lovat System, and be back at Trevor's Star well before any Havenite fleet could reach Manticore.

This kind of thinking has torn my undies too many times on the chessboard with my niece. "I can get away with failing to support my pawn En Appui."

Minor Crochet. — The Minor Crochet is formed by deploying the K R P or the Q H P at R 3.
Its use is to sustain the strategic front against an > adverse major oblique refused en echelon.

Major Crochet. — The Major Crochet is formed by posting the K. Kt P or the Q Kt P at Kt 4, to sustain the double front of operations; or to cover a major or grand strategic front, by preventing the alignment of an adverse minor strategic front refused.

En Appui. — The En Appui is formed by posting at R 3 that Rook's pawn which when thus posted does not constitute the minor crochet.
The utility of this formation consists in the support it affords for establishing the echelon by P— Kt 4, and in permitting the K to occupy R 2 in the fronts directed by the right.

If you fail to deploy likewise against an insanely strong player, like Tierney, you'll be served toast. Every time! Her mannerisms change, her body slumps when you fail to do so. You'll be too easily defeated and she wants a good game. Sometimes, I feel like I'll have the time. "You won't have time Uncle, don't even think about it." After all, the things one could do saving a move on defense. Defensive obligations can seem a waste of time when you're on a roll. How many readers have failed to castle simply because you had a foolproof plan and an offensive that seemed insurmountable, only to be drilled by an unseen, unprepared for attack that you never expected, with most of your real power off on a tangent, deployed all wrongly for the arse kicking you are about to receive. Fail to support En Appui and/or 'castle' with Tierney and you'll get this look , then an ass whipping. Every time. And that's on a 2D board, where I can hold my own. Even I'm not stupid enough to entertain that nonsense on a 3D board against her. Over...quickly.

The RMN uncovered. Honor is the Queen of the board, with all of the power. Don't send your Queen off on a tangent until her house is in order. Appropriate pawn supported En Appui, castle. Et cetera. The RMN should have waited until the missiles were fully deployed. Against a numerically superior opponent, an attack on your Home system is ALWAYS a consideration. When the first missiles came off the assembly line, Home fleet deployment should have been a no-brainier along with a castled sigh of relief. I-M-H-O.

The fact that the Admiralty thought it could attack and get Eighth Fleet back and posted up only underlines the acceptance and knowledge of Eighth fleets importance and its proper strategic deployment. To remove that consideration on a roll of the dice...is unworthy of the RMN.

I'd also like to mention that textev hinted that nobody would have guessed Haven would roll the dice as they did except maybe, Honor. The RMN knew they weren't fighting an idiot Navy in one Thomas Theisman. What else could a Navy do when you display a battle changing weapon?

At the time that they planned the various Cutworm raids, on the other hand, they faced a numerically superior Havenite fleet, which had equalized the differences in their combat power to a great extent (at least with the weapons then in use by the two sides) by improvements in hardware, doctrine, and -- especially! -- numbers. Moreover, they faced one which had shown much greater strategic and operational maturity in the successful conduct of Thunderbolt. And they faced a Havenite fleet which was the one thing no Peep fleet had ever been since First Hancock and Third Yeltsin -- confident. The Havenite navy under Thomas Theisman had reinvented itself thoroughly, and it had the confidence in itself which it had won through its successful operations, both against the rebellious elements within the Republic before the current war, and in Thunderbolt. In short, the Manticoran strategists did not have the advantage of a secure, relatively stable strategic situation, and the Havenites were closing the gap between the two sides' deployed hardware with dismaying speed.

Because of that, they didn't believe that they enjoyed the luxury of waiting.

Yet, because of that, they also couldn't afford to uncover.

****** *

It's much easier to analyze conflicts after the fact. We can say what combatants should have done, could have done differently. After all, we have all of the facts and a god's-eye view. I said several times in other posts, it's a copper-plated, full metal Ransom to second guess human nature and to pontificate in foresight. Hindsight is a cake walk. It's just a bit different when it's your ass heating up in the hot seat, and the responsibility of millions of lives are weighing on your shoulders. It is this pressure that pushes one into unsavory, even incorrect decisions. It is only human nature to succumb. RFC achieved a balance and there is no need, me personally, for suspension of disbelief. Human nature responds exactly like the participants. And just like the aftermath of real wars, we, I, am alive to dissect, analyze, and cast aspersions. It's what we do...while sitting at home, safely. Those who died, won us the privilege.

Wish I had more time. But I don't.

This feels most rushed. It is. On the coast preparing for a possible, serious storm.

As everyone by now probably knows, I am very skeptical of the chain of events in the most recent novels which lead to the end of Havenite-Manticoran hostilities. Having said that, though you have brought up some good points cthia, I have to say that, from a purely military perspective, that the decision to give 8th Fleet Apollo, and by extension Haven's decision to launch Beatrice, is perfectly plausible (the lack of political fallout from that decision is less so). After all, if it weren't for the fact that Honor was playing merry hell in Haven's backyard, Haven would have had a lot more assets available for a war-winning strike anyway.

In fact, a better question would be why didn't Haven launch Beatrice sooner? (RFC has said that Beatrice could have been the first offensive of the war after all) Or, after the Battle of Manticore, with the RHN in ruins and the RMN once more virtually unstoppable, why did Elizabeth send Pritchart an olive branch instead of a laser-head?

The answer to all of these questions is: because if things didn't unfold exactly as they did, Manticore and Haven do not become friends and form the Grand Alliance.