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The Problem with Haven

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The Problem with Haven
Post by DarkEnigma   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:15 pm

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So I know the following post will be controversial but hey, why join an internet forum if you’re not going to be controversial right? :D

As I was reading the novels I was continually impressed by how much effort the author spent ensuring internal consistency. I’m sure that is not easy given how long the series is. There is however one issue which stuck in my craw as a reader, and that is the treatment of Haven in recent books. Part of it has to do with the fact that we spend so much time over so many novels building up psychological enmity towards Haven that its abrupt change from enemy to friend left me a bit off-balance. However another part, I think, has to do with the fact that there are some serious questions about how that all came about.

Haven’s Economic Miracle

We are told through the early novels that Haven had an intractable problem with the institutionalized laziness of the Dolists: masses of people who have grown to expect and demand pay though they do nothing. In fact it was the economic pressure of the Dolist class which forced Haven to begin swallowing up its neighbors (which ironically only created more Dolists).

Given this, how are we to believe that that fundamental flaw in Haven’s economy is not still at work? Should not Haven’s economy still be quite fragile? I realize that Rob Pierre began some modest economic reforms and presumably Pritchart has gone even further in that direction, but we are talking about repairing a systemically flawed system that has been in place for decades (centuries?). This is exacerbated by the fact that Haven has prolog.

Let me explain by way of example. We all know how slow and painful the transition was in the US in its treatment of black people. It was a very long journey from the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863 to the Civil rights act of 1964 and even today we are still living with the scars of history. Part of that change, to put it bluntly, was due to the older generations dying off and the younger generations being more open to change. Imagine if the US had prolog and people who grew up owning slaves were still alive today. How much longer would it have taken to change attitudes and laws given that environment?

The same holds true for Haven. They have billions and billions of Dolists who have gotten accustomed to not working. Many have never worked at all. Changing the attitudes and habits of that many people is going to take time. Certainly longer, in my opinion, than the, what, 5 years? 10? since the reforms began. This means that Haven’s economy should still be weak, and the underlying pressures which forced it into conquest should still be simmering, which makes its sudden desire to end hostilities with Manticore somewhat suspect. Even if Pritchart and Theisman are genuinely for peace, surely there must be constituencies in the Congress or other influential places that still look at Manticore (and other systems) with greedy eyes.

We are also told that Haven’s technical inferiority to Manticore has to do with a much inferior educational system. Again this is a problem which will take time, a lot of time, to fix (also exacerbated by prolog). How then were they able to fund the building of Bolthole, staff it with thousands of skilled technicians and, within a period of just a few years (during the cease fire) achieve technical parity with Manticore to the point that they, but for the grace of God and Honor Harrington, came within a hairsbreadth of accepting Elizabeth’s surrender from Manticore’s orbit?

That fact brings up another issue…

Is Haven Really a Friend of Manticore?

As I said before, Haven’s underlying economic fragility (not to mention the years of antipathy between the two nations) should create pockets (probably large ones) of anti-Manticore sentiment in its society, but what is even more troubling to me are Pritchart’s decisions during the High Ridge years.

I am reminded of the old saw “actions speak loader than words.” We read quite often about how “regretful” Haven’s leadership was, but regretful or no, it was they who restarted hostilities and it was they who made a bid for all-out military victory (which nearly succeeded).
Yes High Ridge was a venal, caustic prick. Yes Giancola was manipulating the correspondence to make Manticore seem even more intransigent than it really was. However, by authorizing Thunderbolt, Pritchart signed the death warrant of hundreds of thousands of people, and she had to know that was going to be the outcome beforehand. And for what? To get back the systems they lost in fair combat? Haven lost the first war. How do they get off thinking Manticore owes them anything (except the fair treatment of and eventual return of prisoners of war)? And even if they were frustrated by Manticore’s seeming intransigence, there was no immediate threat to Haven by Manticore, which means that, objectively speaking, the sneak attack oh-so-regretfully authorized by Prichart which resumed hostilities in which thousands died, was prompted essentially by greed.

And then there was Operation Beatrice. However “regretful” or “reluctant” Pritchart may have been, make no mistake, this was a bid for outright military victory. Had it succeeded there would have been a Havenite fleet in Manticore’s orbit. Regardless of whatever good intentions Pritchart and Thiesman may have had, Haven would have been in the position to demand anything it wanted from Manticore including the dissolution of its government. The idea that Haven wouldn’t have taken advantage of that situation (perhaps even over the objections of Pritchart herself) is ludicrous.

Which leads me to my last point…

The Empress Has No Clothes

Given all of the above, and her personal enmity towards Haven for killing members of her family, I found Elizabeth’s actions (and inaction) during and immediately after the High Ridge years to be suspect. In fact, of the entire Honorverse story, I had the hardest time suspending my disbelief on this one issue.

With Operation Buttercup, Manticore finally had Haven on the ropes and victory within reach. I somewhat understand why High Ridge and his cronies decided to accept Saint-Just’s offer of cease fire (although how he missed the political benefit his coalition could have garnered from being the ones to “won the war” and thus co-opt decades of Cromarty’s hard work is beyond me). Elizabeth’s acceptance of that decision however, strains credulity. Yes I understand that it would have set off a constitutional crisis. However, White Haven was weeks or perhaps a few months from being in Haven’s orbit. If Elizabeth had used her authority as commander in chief to order the continuation of Buttercup to its conclusion, then the decades-old threat of Haven would finally be ended and her star nation could deal with the fallout at its leisure in peace.

She is a highly intelligent and savvy leader, so she couldn't have missed the import of this decision, and she has far to much integrity to put keeping her own position over the welfare of her star nation. How she could have let this opportunity to finally end the Havenite threat after being under its pall for decades slip away?

In fact, I can’t remember a single time where Elizabeth uses her executive authority. She has often goaded, cajoled, and threatened, but I can’t remember a time where she countermanded Parliament even once. Perhaps that is simply because she and Cromarty were of a mind most of the time, but she would do well to remember that power unused is the same as having no power at all (see the current British royalty for reference. I often wonder what would happen there if the Queen decided to utilize her theoretical power after all this time).

Am I alone in feeling this way? Did it bother anyone else how quickly Elizabeth and Pritchart became BFFs? Even with the benefit of Treecat truth detectors, she had to still be a bit miffed over that little sneak attack and attempt to take over her star nation if nothing else!

Ok I’m done, had to get that out. Feel free to sharpen your pitchforks and light your torches now. ;)
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by roseandheather   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:29 pm

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I'm not going to touch anything else about this post because all I will be able to manage is apoplectic rage, but - 'abrupt'? 'Abrupt'?? I saw the Grand Alliance coming from book six - well before I had a clue who they'd be fighting against side by side - and the most painful part of the subsequent fourteen books was waiting for it to happen! (Aside for a few character deaths, of course, but We Do Not Speak About Those.) I wouldn't go so far as to say the conclusion was foregone, but Haven had been set up from book two for a switch from antagonist to protagonist and from book six - or eight, at the very latest - to ally with Manticore eventually.

Abrupt?? 'Abrupt' my arse. *stalks off muttering angrily, Ivanova-style*
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by hanuman   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:51 pm

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The economic reforms have been going on since the outbreak of the first Havenite War, when the committee managed to convince the People's Quorum (I think that's what the Havenite legislature was called) to accept a freeze in inflation-related increases of the dole for the 'good of the nation'. That right there was a pretty significant first step.

Also, remember that the upsurge of patriotism which followed upon the Committee's extraordinary successful propaganda campaigns led to countless Dolists actually becoming willing to get off their lazy behinds and enter the work force. Yes, undereducated and for the most part without the necessary skills or mindset, but education and skill can be remedied relatively quickly if it is done 'on the job' (and especially if it is narrowly-focused).

Remember, Haven included about 100 systems at the start of the first Havenite War (I read somewhere). I'm going to make a completely uninformed estimate here, namely that the average system population was about 6 billion. That might or might not be correct, but at 6 billion people per system we have a total population of 600 billion. Somewhere among those 600 billion there had to have been at least a few score billion individuals who had not been reduced to Dolist status and still had the necessary skill levels to make the economy stutter onwards, however lethargically.

I cannot even begin to estimate how many of the latter individuals would be required to make an economy the size of the PRH's run, but there had to be enough to at least provide a core complement for the purpose of training all those Dolists who were entering the work force.

In this regard, Haven's technological inferiority would actually have been an advantage, because it would have required MORE workers to build enough ships and other weapons to stay within touching distance of the Manties, plus those incoming Dolists wouldn't have had to be trained to quite the same level of skill as the Manties' work force.
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by drothgery   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:34 pm

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hanuman wrote:Remember, Haven included about 100 systems at the start of the first Havenite War (I read somewhere). I'm going to make a completely uninformed estimate here, namely that the average system population was about 6 billion. That might or might not be correct, but at 6 billion people per system we have a total population of 600 billion. Somewhere among those 600 billion there had to have been at least a few score billion individuals who had not been reduced to Dolist status and still had the necessary skill levels to make the economy stutter onwards, however lethargically.
The number is systems is too low (the PRH had over 400 systems at its peak -- though this included a fair number of uninhabited systems claimed only for forward bases; for various reasons the new Republic has 'only' about 150), but it seems like the average population of a 2nd-tier or better system in the Honorverse is 1-2 billion, and RFC has said >4 billion is very rare (and pretty nearly nonexistent outside of systems that were League members in 1920 PD).
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by crewdude48   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:04 pm

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drothgery wrote:
hanuman wrote:Remember, Haven included about 100 systems at the start of the first Havenite War (I read somewhere). I'm going to make a completely uninformed estimate here, namely that the average system population was about 6 billion. That might or might not be correct, but at 6 billion people per system we have a total population of 600 billion. Somewhere among those 600 billion there had to have been at least a few score billion individuals who had not been reduced to Dolist status and still had the necessary skill levels to make the economy stutter onwards, however lethargically.
The number is systems is too low (the PRH had over 400 systems at its peak -- though this included a fair number of uninhabited systems claimed only for forward bases; for various reasons the new Republic has 'only' about 150), but it seems like the average population of a 2nd-tier or better system in the Honorverse is 1-2 billion, and RFC has said >4 billion is very rare (and pretty nearly nonexistent outside of systems that were League members in 1920 PD).


Still, his two errors more or less cancel each other out, 3 times high for population and 3 times low for systems.
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by Relax   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:43 pm

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DarkEnigma wrote:So I know the following post will be controversial but hey, why join an internet forum if you’re not going to be controversial right? :D
SNIP
Haven’s Economic Miracle
SNIP

Is Haven Really a Friend of Manticore?

SNIP

The Empress Has No Clothes;)


1) Economy improves quite readily when the lazy selfish douchbags get their suckling strings cut and are forced to either work or starve. The Committee was not shy about shooting folks outright as der boot in der 'ass' obtaining an "optimum" result. Harsh, but effective. The real question is as follows: "After the committee met its demise, is there now a gigantic groundswell from these lazy pampered folks who were forced to work for a few years to revert, implement a return to communism?" How big is this groundswell and what kind of political clout do they carry?

2) Manticore's friend? No. But enemy?

Haven Greedy? Yup. Pride hurt? Yup. Could they have gotten off their collective lazy selfish buns and sent a representative(s) to a conference on Manticore, forcing the politicians in Manticore to actually finish the ceasefire/war as there would be a million cameras watching and actually gotten a deal? Yup. Didn't because of pride. Would have looked "weak". End result, due to pride, and maybe a bit of greed, but near 100% because of pride, they went back to war.

There is a reason the saying goes, "pride goeth before the fall." Pride leads almost all issues.

3) Uh, politics... So, just no. Go read AoV. Read WoH. It is spelled out in both books why Q. Elizabeth could not.
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by SWM   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:49 pm

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Several people have pointed out the efforts at reform that have been ongoing since the beginning of the first war. All of that gives a (barely) plausible explanation for how the current economic vitality of Haven is possible.

I will point out the reason why it feels a bit abrupt. It's because it is a bit abrupt, because David Weber originally planned for Have to take another twenty years recovering economically.

The original plan was for Honor to die at the Battle of Manticore. Her dieing message to the Queen would result in a peace treaty with Haven, but not the current Grand Alliance. The Mesan-inspired crisis with the Solarian League was not supposed to start until Honor's children were adults, and the further stories would cover their their adventures in the new crisis. Haven would have had plenty more time to reform its economy.

Eric Flint's desire to focus on the Cachat, Zilwicki, and Manpower caused David to change plans. That is part of the reason that several things feel like they happened terribly abruptly. David has done his best to make plausible transitions. But it can't hide the feeling that things are happening quickly, because they are.
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by hanuman   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:55 pm

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400 systems? Really? Oh, then I was certainly waaayyyy off course.

Okay, so with an average system population of 2 billion, and given the new info (for me) wrt the number of systems and that several (many?) of them are uninhabited, we get more or less half the population total I estimated. So, 300-350 billion. I told you guys my estimate was uninformed.

Still, the point I made is still valid. A vibrant, growing economy requires a productive and innovative economically-active population. The PRH economy was clearly neither vibrant nor growing, but it has managed NOT to collapse for a long time (I remember that Mr Weber wrote in the companion that was included in the first anthology that Haven had started its economic experimentation well over half a century before Honor's birth - once again, I might be wrong, but I don't own the book so I cannot verify my facts).

The fact that the PRH economy has managed to stay solvent for so long before it reached the critical point beyond which the financial strain of supporting payments to the Dolists could no longer be carried without complete economic collapse, means that there had to exist at least a significant economically-productive class that could ensure the continued solvency of the economy.

Also, the critical point beyond which economic collapse would have become inevitable did not come around because that productive class had suddenly disappeared. Rather, the PRH had become too large, and in the process had destroyed too much of the productive capacity of its newly-conquered subjects, for its economically-productive class to carry all the weight of keeping its economy solvent - even with the inflow of loot from those new conquests.

But the point is that such an economically-productive, educated and skilled class had to exist, and that it had to be significant in number, for the PRH economy to have remained solvent for so long. So once the Dolists started to respond to Ransom's propaganda campaigns and started to enter the work force again, there were still enough skilled personnel to retrain the new workers.
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by DarkEnigma   » Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:36 pm

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SWM wrote:I will point out the reason why it feels a bit abrupt. It's because it is a bit abrupt, because David Weber originally planned for Have to take another twenty years recovering economically.


Is there a post by the author going into this topic? I'd be interested to see some background on this.

roseandheather wrote:I wouldn't go so far as to say the conclusion was foregone, but Haven had been set up from book two for a switch from antagonist to protagonist and from book six - or eight, at the very latest - to ally with Manticore eventually.


Perhaps I missed some subtle cues on that score. I recognized, of course, that there were some honorable people in the RHN but I always assumed they would eventually become disillusioned with Haven and switch sides or at least become neutral. It never dawned on me until Honor showed up in Haven orbit that Haven, with its legions of Dolists, history of underhanded politics (like assassination), and attempt to secure Manticore's orbitals would ever be a friend. A defeated and docile neutral party maybe, but not a friend.

Relax wrote: 3) Uh, politics... So, just no. Go read AoV. Read WoH. It is spelled out in both books why Q. Elizabeth could not.


My recollection of the events in Ashes of Victory are hazy but I seem to recall that the reason given was Elizabeth's fear of a constitutional crisis. While I'm sure that fear was valid, my point was only that her Navy was only a short time away from total victory. Surely the fallout from the crisis could have been put off a few weeks until after Haven was safely dealt with? I admit I haven't gotten to Worlds of Honor yet though. Which story covers this topic?
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Re: The Problem with Haven
Post by Relax   » Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:54 pm

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DarkEnigma wrote:this topic?


Do yourself a favor.

Read "pearls". A pearl is a RFC, MWW, bar post or forum post that has been collected by Joe Buckley, board member Dahak.

www.thefifthimperium.com
Specifically:

http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/series/Harrington/

Bookmark this link please. Read through them ALL. The labels are not always correct. More precisely, MWW, RFC, DW, our author in chief, tends to add nuggets or complete diversionary, distinct, corollary topics in his posts.

Also, select one of Runsforceleries posts and then go under your "friends" section under user control and put him as a friend. This also allows you to read all of his posts on the forum. Several posts are not in the "pearls".

Specifically, the 20 years time gap issue is detailed, in both the pearls and also in the first pages of the authors note of Storm From the Shadows. Or SftS as everyone here on the board calls the book.

After doing yourself a favor by reading the pearls and enjoying the read(s), we also receive the favor of having a much more in depth conversation(informed) here on the bar instead.

The pearls by themselves are equal to a book in length. It will take a while. Do note the date of publication of said pearl. Then remember the publication date of which book was when obtaining a closer grasp on why/when said topic came up and is being answered.

Enjoy
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