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Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)

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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:09 pm

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Bill Woods wrote:
BrightSoul wrote:Probably the greatest potential for leaks hasn't been mentioned yet and I'm kinda stunned.

The McBride family is our key to splitting the onion. Consider that they rest of the family was supposed to die in the shopping center blast but were delayed and survived.
I don't think that the family was targeted; they just happened to live in that neighborhood. The purpose of the bomb was cover the disappearance of a thousand or so people who are now 'missing, presumed dead'.

They didn't just "live in that neighborhood". They lived in the very building where the shopping mall was located. It was only a 1 kt blast, and the way the building was built, they only lost a few pictures off the wall. If the McBryde family had been targeted, the bomb would have been big enough to take the entire thing down.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:10 pm

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Bill Woods wrote:
SWM wrote: I think you misunderstood. The Alignment did not intend for the McBrides to die. If they died, it would have been simple coincidence, not a deliberate act by the Alignment. They did not intentionally target families of the people they were slipping out in Houdini, because they did not want to disenchant them. Houdini had some other cover for Zach's disappearance.
kzt wrote: No, there was at least one whose husband showed up for a conference that got blowed up real good, and she was listed as being there too iirc.
SWM wrote: Since many of the people being hidden by Houdini were scientific or technical experts who would attend such a thing, that conference was a good way to hide the disappearance of a lot of people at once. They weren't specifically targeting the husband--if the husband had not been there but thought his wife was, that would have been perfectly acceptable cover.

No, in that case they did target the left-behind relative.
Jules had been personally invited by Lisa's boss, at Collin Detweiler's instruction. ... The blast would not only explain Lisa Charteris's disappearance. By killing her husband it would also eliminate the one person most likely to probe that disappearance.

Okay, forgot that part. That was an unusual case, then. But there is no evidence that the McBryde family was targeted.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by BrightSoul   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:13 pm

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Cauldron of Ghosts, Chapter 55 wrote:“Target Gamma…now.”
Marinescu keyed in yet another command and a huge shopping center in one of the towers inhabited by citizens was ground zero for another tactical nuke. A larger one, just over one kiloton.
The time was far from ideal, since the lunchtime crowd would have thinned and the evening crowd hadn’t started arrived. But this all needed to be done in a very short span of time. Even as it was, eleven thousand six hundred and three people were killed immediately. Almost as many would die within the next few days from the effects of radiation, burns and radiation poisoning.
Among the people whose lives were spared by the timing were Zachariah McBryde’s mother Christine and his younger sister Arianne. They’d been planning to shop together that evening, after dinner.
They both lived in the building, Dedrick Tower, but their apartments were far enough from the blast that they suffered no injuries. Christine’s apartment was barely even rattled. Arianne’s was closer, and she lost some fragile personal items tossed off their shelves by the concussion. But nothing worse.”


Nothing in here says one way or another whether they were targeted but the immediately previous section had this gem:

[quote"Cauldron of Ghosts, Chapter 55"]
In all, nine thousand, nine hundred and forty-one people were killed outright. Another seven hundred and two would later succumb to their injuries.
The meeting had been sponsored by Bateson University. The speaker had been Mesa’s Assistant Director of Scientific Research. His topic had been Projections for research grants in 1923.
Mesa had just lost a significant portion of its scientific establishment.
One of those slated to speak later that day had been Anastasia Chernevsky. According to the program, she was just returning from a weeks-long stay in a research institute on McClintock Island. Her husband Jules had just entered the auditorium when the blast went off. He’d been looking forward to seeing his wife again. She’d been incommunicado, as was normal procedure for seminars held at that institute.
Jules had been personally invited by Anastasia’s boss, at Collin Detweiler’s instruction.. As always, the Alignment worked in layers. The blast would not only explain Anastasia Chernevsky’s disappearance. By killing her husband it would also eliminate the one person most likely to probe that disappearance.
Chernevsky herself had never been told of the plan, of course. There was no reason to upset her, especially since that would undermine her effectiveness. By the time she found out about her husband’s death, if she ever did, many years would have gone by. Time would have softened her memory and the precise events of that horrible day of carnage so long ago would have been blurred by that same passage of time.
A number of other scientists were supposed to have been there that day, who, in the event, never showed up. Those were the ones who’d already left Mesa as part of Houdini.
The surviving records would, indeed, show that they’d been there. But the blast would have destroyed their physical persons along with the persons of anyone who might have been able to say otherwise.[/quote]

The implication being (in my interpretation) was that they were looking to remove anyone who might look into said family member's disappearance. Keep in mind that the McBrydes were scheduled to go shopping that evening and the blast was described as less than ideal timing due to the rushed nature of the plan.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:36 pm

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BrightSoul wrote:The implication being (in my interpretation) was that they were looking to remove anyone who might look into said family member's disappearance. Keep in mind that the McBrydes were scheduled to go shopping that evening and the blast was described as less than ideal timing due to the rushed nature of the plan.

Planning to go shopping is not the same kind of targeting guarantee that special invitation to see your wife at a convention for the first time in two weeks is. How many people plan weeks in advance to do a shopping trip to a mall in the same building as their apartment? I don't think the Alignment could have known the McBryde plans well enough to specifically target them at the mall. Again, if they had been intentionally targeting the McBryde family, they could have just used one of their larger bombs instead of their (only) 1 kt bomb, and take out their entire building along with the shopping mall on the first floor.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by dreamrider   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:15 pm

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BrightSoul wrote:Probably the greatest potential for leaks hasn't been mentioned yet and I'm kinda stunned.

The McBride family is our key to splitting the onion. Consider that they rest of the family was supposed to die in the shopping center blast but were delayed and survived.

With the rushed nature of Houdini one has to wonder if somehow in the confusion the MA coordinators may have missed that they survived? Could someone in the Mesan Government publish that they had died along with Zack only to be exposed when the Family comes out and says "Nope, he left weeks before that happened on a business trip."

The other thing that could expose the alignment is Jessyk Combine's efforts to secure and explore the Felix Terminus. Not in their files on Mesa, they've had plenty of time to Sanitize those records, but rather in one of their offices within the league branch offices. Consider the info dump on how they were very circumspect in their efforts to secure their ownership of that wormhole without being discovered. Could their be breadcrumbs our intrepid SLN investigators (Al-Fanudahi anyone?) could find as they dig deeper and deeper into Rajampet and corruption at the ministerial level?


Some others have covered some of the erroneous assumptions here, but I started this reply and had to pause...and I've also got some additional points.

Two of the several remaining members of the McBryde family were NOT "supposed" to die in the mall bombing. That bomb went off right on schedule, which just happened to be dictated by the Houdini need for coincidence of events rather than by max casualties at the peak evening shopping hour. Further there is no indication that the Houdini team knew or cared squat about the McBryde mother and daughter's personal shopping plans. Why would or could they? The bomb was of a carefully planned size, there was no mistake, they were not trying to take down the entire tower, or even physically hurt the majority of residents. They were apparently using a size of nuke that was a plausible improvised terror attack.

There is no textev whatsoever as to how often the rest of the McBryde family has contact with Zack. I used to talk to my Mom about once a month when I was in a demanding (and incidentally highly secure) job. He almost certainly would NOT make a habit of telling them about his "business" trips, given the secure nature of his work, and there is no textev that Zack or anyone else did so. They probably have no idea that he is missing; that's sure the way I would work it, given how many casualties in and around Mendel Houdini is planning to make.

Jessyk is not trying to procure all rights to Felix colonization. Mannerheim is trying to do so, through several layers of shell corps and fronts. Which, even if it comes out, is a perfectly reasonable thing for Mannerheim to do. Another layer of onion skin.


Even if some large number of surviving families on Mesa pipe up that they had relations that went missing before the disasters (and, as good starline families, it is very doubtful that they would), So What? Where did they go? To what purpose? Are those nefarious Manties, who have been aiding and abetting the damned seccy/Ballroom mass murderers (Look! Zilwicki is doing it again!), lying about all these supposed 'no longer present' 'survivors'? Any reasonable observer would bet on it!

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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by BrightSoul   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:33 pm

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Rather than trying to debunk ideas how about we actually look for the cracks in the Houdini plan, at least that is my intent.

We've got no Textev either way on the MA plans for the bombs in Houdini. As I said, there is potential here for exposure. If not in the case of the bombs themselves then when someone actually looks into the loss of life in the Cruise Ship accident or the Plane bomb that dropped its wreckage into a hard to reach ravine. According to the MA's records the plane was full and there were roughly twice as many people on the cruise ship than their actually was. In 2000 years you don't think humanity has improved the exploratory equipment to find the wreckage and investigate? Sure, they probably expected to have more time to pass with anyone other than Manticore and the GA investigating the violence on Mesa only to discover that Henke arrived months early, a bare couple weeks after the blasts.

No plan goes off without a hitch and while I agree that if the goal was to kill the McBrydes they could have insured success with a bigger blast. Then again a bigger blast would have required Military ordinance, not jury rigged divvy explosives, nuclear or not. Heck it could even be a case of MA leadership telling McBryde that his family was killed in the shopping center blast only to find out he was lied to.

My point is that it is very early in this process and there are a couple Billion weak spots that could crack to give the Alliance enough material to call into question what really happened.

As for Mannerheim's efforts to secure the Felix junction and rights to the system it is made startlingly clear that Jessyk Combine was hired to do the research. I doubt that upstanding Mannerheim was working exclusively with the Mesan Branch office so the details probably went through a regional office. Again, I obviously have no inside track on what did leak. All I'm looking for are the potential places we might look.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by JohnRoth   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:03 pm

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BrightSoul wrote:
...

As for Mannerheim's efforts to secure the Felix junction and rights to the system it is made startlingly clear that Jessyk Combine was hired to do the research. I doubt that upstanding Mannerheim was working exclusively with the Mesan Branch office so the details probably went through a regional office. Again, I obviously have no inside track on what did leak. All I'm looking for are the potential places we might look.


There are 200 years between the Jessyk Combine survey that discovered the Felix Junction and the carefully orchestrated leak to the Mannerheim government.

RFC hasn't told us how Mannerheim discovered the junction. My guess is that it was a routine Mannerheim SDF training exercise that "accidentally" ran straight into the thing, followed by its own clandestine survey that somehow just managed to discover only two of the four termini.

A junction of that size isn't all that hard to spot if you're within a light-second or so of the thing. Or if you spot the resonance zone. Or some astronomer "just happens" to look at a well-known and totally uninteresting nearby star to see if he can find the fingerprints of a hyper terminus. The harder thing would have been keeping the wrong someone from stumbling across it too early.

There is no reason Jessyk had to be involved at all, and every reason to keep them out of it.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by SCC   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:09 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:There are 200 years between the Jessyk Combine survey that discovered the Felix Junction and the carefully orchestrated leak to the Mannerheim government.

RFC hasn't told us how Mannerheim discovered the junction. My guess is that it was a routine Mannerheim SDF training exercise that "accidentally" ran straight into the thing, followed by its own clandestine survey that somehow just managed to discover only two of the four termini.


Mannerheim is being used as a front man by the MA in the acquisition of the system, likely things are set up so that if someone catches wind of it Mannerheim's name comes up, not someone else.

And Mannerheim was told about the terminus there by the MA, but I have no idea what the official story is.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by JohnRoth   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:21 pm

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BrightSoul wrote:Probably the greatest potential for leaks hasn't been mentioned yet and I'm kinda stunned.

The McBride family is our key to splitting the onion. Consider that they rest of the family was supposed to die in the shopping center blast but were delayed and survived.

With the rushed nature of Houdini one has to wonder if somehow in the confusion the MA coordinators may have missed that they survived? Could someone in the Mesan Government publish that they had died along with Zack only to be exposed when the Family comes out and says "Nope, he left weeks before that happened on a business trip."

...



Why should they bother?

The GA has only two objectives here: first, to demonstrate to all and sundry that the MAlign actually exists, and second, to track them down and eliminate them. A few sets of relatives crazed with grief and seeing conspiracies where there obviously aren't any won't matter.

Exposing the MAlign is going to take a lot more work than that. Even Anton Zilwiki said he was chasing shadows when he concluded he'd seen the footprints.

Trying to document who was spirited off in Houdini, versus who was killed to provide cutouts and who was simply collateral damage is going to take a whole lot of work.

We hope they remember to pack a lunch.
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Re: Houdini and its consequences(CoG spoilers)
Post by BrightSoul   » Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:52 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
Why should they bother?

The GA has only two objectives here: first, to demonstrate to all and sundry that the MAlign actually exists, and second, to track them down and eliminate them. A few sets of relatives crazed with grief and seeing conspiracies where there obviously aren't any won't matter.

Exposing the MAlign is going to take a lot more work than that. Even Anton Zilwiki said he was chasing shadows when he concluded he'd seen the footprints.

Trying to document who was spirited off in Houdini, versus who was killed to provide cutouts and who was simply collateral damage is going to take a whole lot of work.

We hope they remember to pack a lunch.


First off, this set of relatives ARE people known to Manticore since the guy that outed the alignment was their son.

Second, who said put grieving relatives on HD? I said that looking into the bombs used to cover the alignment's escape might not be cut and dried. How does wreckage discovered that was supposed to have 300 people aboard but forensics can prove there was only the flight crew aboard change the narrative?

Recall that the Mesan Government is supposed to claim thousands of deaths in these bombings. The Nukes will be hard to get any forensic evidence from the wreckage but there are a couple of these accidents that didn't involve a nuke as well and the lists of the Dead won't match up if the wreckage is investigated.

Rather than debunking my post why not post some other ideas where our Heroes (tm) might find hints? Come on, are you all just Clerks pointing out the shortcomings of others?
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