Alizon wrote:SWM wrote:Where do you get the idea that the Junction has been virtually closed? Only one terminus of the Junction leads into Solarian space; all the rest of the termini are open for business. And business is picking up on many of those routes. The Merchant Marine has only been recalled from Solarian space. Manticoran merchants are still plying the spaceways to the Talbott cluster, the Anderman Empire, the Phoenix Cluster, Matapan, Basilisk and the Silesian quadrant, and now into Trevor's Star and Haven space.
Also, by now Manticore has some of its manufacturing capacity rebuilt. If White Haven was correct about his predictions, some of the smaller shipyards have to be in service building the first new ships by the end of Cauldron of Ghosts. If shipyards have been built already, I think we can assume that some factories have also been rebuilt by now.
Manticore is doing fine. They've lost trade within the Solarian League, but they still have plenty of trade with other areas, and manufacturing is coming back online.
The only terminis that really matters in the big picture IS the terminis leading to Solarian space.
The Solarian League IS the market in known space. Take all of Manticore, all of Haven, all of Anderman Space, all of Silesia, all of the Talbot Quadrant, Allof it and put all together it is a miniscule fraction of the economy and markets of the 1,200+ worlds, many of them incredibly wealthy, that comprise the Solarian League.
Regardless of how you slice it, the VAST majority of cargos passing through the Junction are either carrying cargos from League worlds or too League worlds and that trade and everything that goes with it has just ended.
The Manticorian merchant fleet isn't primarily engaged is hauling cargos from Manticore or the rim to Solarian space, the Vast majority if it is hauling cargos from one Solarian world to another Solarian world. That's what happens when you have over 1,000 a large number of the MAJOR worlds that are trading with each other. That produces tax revenues for Manticorian shippers which produces taxes for the crown. Of course you've recalled your entire merchant fleet so that's virtually all dried up as well.
So who do you have left to trade with. Haven has around 100 worlds but only a few of those would actually be considered major worlds in comparison to League standards and they are all trying to pull themselves out of a century of the most hideous economic abuse possible. Then you have the Andermani who have a few decent worlds and then a few score of Verge and Rim worlds with what, by Solarian Standards, would hardly register on the trading scale.
Yes, Manticore can trade with them provided it can produce anything to trade but that will produce a tiny fraction of the revenue that has been lost, provided those shipping firms actually manage to turn a profit of some kind with the economic upheaval going on and their primary markets closed off.
Basically, it's your conjecture that since Manticore can still trade with maybe 5% - 10% of it's market and trading partners that losing the other 90% isn't such a big deal. Well do the math, it is a VERY big deal.
Simply put, if the Alignment has plannedto utterly destroy the entire Manticorian economy, between Oyster Bay and the actions already taken by the crown, they couldn't have come up with a much better plan to do it.
You're right, Manticore is going to be fine because if it isn't then unless you enjoy reading about economic devastation, it's not going to make a very interesting book. But I am eager to see what kind of handwavium or divine writers intervention it's going to take to do so.
Are you under the impression that the Beowulf Terminus is the only terminus of any warp bridge that enters Solarian space?
I have repeatedly stated that one of the reasons the MWHJ is so important is because it gives access to the entire network of termini around the League's periphery. And that network allows access to almost every portion of the Solarian League. Which is the very reason that shutting it down to non-Manticoran shipping adds so much time to any Solarian interstellar transit times.
During the decades of war between Spain and the rebellious Netherlands, the Dutch financed much of their war effort by continuing to provide the carrying trade for Habsburg commerce (including Spain's) even during periods of active operations. Much of the Armada's artillery had been cast in Protestant --- including Dutch and English --- foundries, and the money Spain paid for those guns helped finance the English galleons which defeated it.
The situation in the HV is not completely analogous to that episode, but there are definitely similarities. The SEM now has access to/control of better than 90% of the total wormhole network, and the RMN is in position to provide security against commerce raiders in virtually all of the systems to which they connect. Do you seriously think that Solarian transtellars (or anyone else whose livelihood absolutely depends on moving his products to other star systems) are going to balk at using Manty bottoms to do the moving? If you do, then you have an imperfect understanding of just how corrupt and "go along to get along" Solarian interstellar commerce has become. I do not mean to suggest for a moment that the SL's commerce is going to be booming along at pre-war levels, nor do I mean to suggest that there won't be a great many Solarian businesses which will refuse to use Manty merchies even if it leaves them facing significant financial loss or even bankruptcy. But I will positively guarantee you that there will also be a great many of those businesses who will use those merchies to avoid bankruptcy. And there are even going to be quite a lot of system governments who will wink at the use of Manty shipping, given their lack of institutional loyalty to the Mandarins. And, in the meantime, Manticore is going to be levying special transit fees on all non-Manticoran shipping through any of the termini it now controls as an emergency wartime measure. Again, let me stress that Manticore has no objection to Solarian commerce continuing so long as it does so under Manty supervision and conditions . . . and so long as none of the fees and duties previously going to the SL's bureaucracies continue to do so. Indeed, there are huge arguments in favor of allowing that commerce to continue, so long as it doesn't contribute to the war effort against the GA, if only as a means of generating good PR for the SEM.
"See how reasonable we're being? Or trying to be, anyway, when the League lets us! Unfortunately, we can't allow the Mandarins to use these termini to prosecute the war against us, and we have every reason to deny the League the revenues it's historically generated off of the Solarian merchant marine and the service fees we're no longer allowing anyone to collect. But we don't want to put anyone out of business unless we have to, so we're taking over the astro control functions you used to pay the SL to provide, and our emergency transit fees will come to only 50% of what you used to pay OFS and the League. And as soon as this unpleasantness is concluded, we'll happily go back to allowing free transit to anyone, including Solarian-register freighters."
Manticore is going to take a hit, and it's going to be a heavy one, but the only way it could turn into the sort of debacle you're positing, would be for the GA to lose the war. A war that ran long enough could still do serious damage, even if the GA won in the end, but nothing short of outright defeat --- the kind that leaves the SL in control of the MWHJ --- could produce the sort of free fall you've described.
