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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by Tim
» Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:29 pm
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Tim
Posts: 37
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Absolutely in no way turn over any surrendered SLN equipment to the SL or anyone else you are not 100% sure of. The idea of showing contempt for obsolete equipment is not worth the huge downside. You will get a huge PR black eye with every Verge and Shell worlds the first time those obsolete SLN ships are used by anyone to "pacify" public unrest.
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by lyonheart
» Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:39 pm
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Tim,
Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated roof.  Kudos, and thank you for expressing some common sense. It is interesting to see the shifts in posters over the years, this thread's current attitude appears to seek questionable friends over outright winning a war of survival, partly by misunderstanding or forgetting some details. Back in the '60's, the US government experimented with weather control using nukes, and was all set to try stopping or diverting a hurricane by nuking it when someone pointed out the government would then be liable for any and all damage that followed whether that was in the US or not regardless of it being a 'successful' controlled diversion etc, whereupon the US government dropped the plan along with almost all other weather modification research. Thus the GA will be responsible for whatever damage or destruction the ex- captured SD's do; while the future may be a less litiginous society than our current one, there's textev that Sollie's sue their mothers for the trauma of being born, so even the SEM might not be able to afford all the likely lawsuits from handing out warships. The main result of sending SD's back along with a million plus POW's that will fight again is that the SL will see that the GA leaders are idiots, like High Ridge and his ilk; who are so stupid or ignorant etc that they can be beaten, thus hardening opposition and causing more conflict. OTOH, returning POW's to systems that have joined the GA is a different proposition, you are building their SDF's, if not the GA directly immediately. We already have Kingsford saying the BF reserve is so obsolete its just so much scrap metal [ie ~60 billion tons worth] NTM they can't afford to activate it, so destroying it isn't going to change their budget priorities as some have suggested. However in terms of political calculus, eliminating the huge club the SL has threatened most of its non-core members with for a couple centuries is going to smash and splinter the SL's unity rather splendidly while encouraging hundreds of ex-SL members to join the GA rather soon. If the SLN [ie BF in particular] is gone along with all its bases and building slips etc, essentially leaving only the non nodal FF remaining [1/3-1/2?] there is little reason to stick with the SL. While the FF ships are obviously individually far better than the BF in terms of their tech and crews, most ex-SL systems will feel they can build BC's far sooner than they could build an SD [5+ years?], and so be far less intimidated to start with. If a few FF BC's make it back from their attempts at commerce raiding, there will be far fewer to even attempt intimidating before the GA is in place to meet them, if they were even willing to consider such by then, and even old 'legacy' DD's can kill a couple of FF BC's with tractored MDM pods etc. Given around 4000 GA hyper warships [including 8-1200 SDP's], before getting into tens of thousands of LAC's and at least a few hundred if not ~500 CLAC's to carry them, GA allies will soon be far better protected than their non-allied neighbors, which will be great advertising. Without secure bases to rearm, repair and refit, the FF will soon be nearing useless impotence, assuming the remaining ships don't attempt to attack any GA ships they meet in the first place and are destroyed 'En passant'. Returning to the original intent of this thread, what are keys to the GA's 'information offensive' in the SL, given they can reach most of the SL faster than the mandarins? L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by lyonheart
» Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:02 pm
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi BobfromSidney,
Are you serious? The fact that the SL has already invaded SEM territory twice besides invading a member system, ie Beowulf's twice as well is somehow akin to a sneak attack? Just because those invasions failed, the GA should ignore them? Or that the attack solely on Sol's military assets will likely be only after the other anchorages have been destroyed as fair warning and then only if Sol doesn't get rid of the evident "scrap" first? Right! Regarding the SL somehow getting its act together in 20-50 years, your argument using the US is quite off. First, find the textev that the SL will survive even 5 years. I'd be willing to wait quite a while, but because I know you can't, I won't. The primary problem with your analogy is that the Sollie's don't see themselves as Sollie's but as Beowulfers or Terrans etc first, just as the southern confederacy's problem was that their states had first place in their allegiance; not the confederacy, not the south, not the war effort. Which is one reason Jefferson Davis said "the south died of state's rights". Then there is all the textev from CoS [2003] on regarding various observers seeing the SL collapsing rather soon of its own weight and incompetence; the economic preferences given to the core systems by the mandarins which have ticked off the far larger shell, that the looting of the protectorates can't continue infinitely [what happens when the ex-protectorate members outnumber the non?]; the widespread popularity of Barregos and Rozsak as reformers against the nameless bureaucracy; nor that a quarter of the EC voted with Beowulf despite all the bribes and systemic corruption on Terra, who probably represent more like a third of the member systems, and are even more likely to have their own hyper warships in their SDF's than not; besides the SL apparently being riddled with lots of MAlign agents who're dedicated to the SL's quick destruction yet are not somehow going to finish their jobs? Ri-ight! OTOH, I think we may see signs of some SL members are willing to quit the SL and join the GA just from observing Lacoon 1 & 2; not any particular military action, but just the simple economic castration the SL didn't see coming, indicating its arrogant dangerous stupidity that had created the situation in the first place among other things. For the 2/3 of the SL that rely only on LAC's in their SDF's, the repeated demonstration of GA military superiority will encourage many to seek out the GA as a new protector; one that opposes the OFS etc, indeed supports the RA's 6 pillars [CoS], and so will be far more popular locally than Sollie bureaucrats NTM more equitable in its relationship. I suspect simply getting rid of the OFS will gain the GA a lot of support throughout the SL, NTM the protectorates and verge, or how many FF defectors who're tired of doing the OFS's killing etc. How long before the tales of Mobius and Meyers begin to mount and swell, from a molehill to a mountain as other protectorates seek help? Granted the GA are the good guys, but where is the textev for the SL having a chance of surviving in anything like its present size or capability, let alone 5 years from now? Given how outclassed the SL is, I'd think all the SL survivor supporters would want RFC to clear the decks so as to get a foe who stands a chance of making it interesting, but they appear to prefer delaying the inevitable for as long as possible. Go figure. If it'd be boring for RFC to write it, how long will it take, let alone what will reading it feel like? L [quote="BobfromSydney"][quote="lyonheart"] Taking out Hyperion One and LogCom, both very military targets, after the attack on Beowulf but going no further into Sol should be more than acceptable to any rational observer. [/quote] Under that logic it could be argued Japan taking out Pearl Harbour should be more than acceptable to any rational observer as well. Or Thunderbolt was acceptable to the Manticore's leadership or citizenry. Even if the Solarian League surrendered, the GA would not necessarily get what it wanted - in 20-50 years time the SL would get its act together and come after them with the REAL mother of all fleets. Flipping it around: Imagine the typical scenario where dictator ABC in some foreign country does something despicable or threatening and the U.S. launches an air strike and loses a few planes (and pilots). Some of the pilots survive but become POWs. How does public opinion stand? Some are for the war, some are against the war, many are indifferent. Now dictator ABC uses a submarine (or whatever) to drop a few cruise missiles on the pentagon, or torpedoes Norfolk naval station. Was that a good move for dictator ABC? Where does public opinion stand now? I think most of us hardcore fans are also wargamers of some stripe and can easily fall into the wargame mentality of the winner being the player with the most points on the board or destroys the most enemy units at the end of the game. The size disparity between the GA and the SL means that the SL is an enemy that cannot be defeated by conventional means. In fact they need to change the 'enemy' status and end the conflict as friends of the league's member systems, if not the league itself. Regarding the Solarian POWs: Absolutely don't release them until the GA achieves its goals! Maybe a fleeting morsel of goodwill would be gained by releasing them, but the downsides in terms of propaganda and leverage would dwarf that goodwill by a large measure. Every day those POWs spend in captivity damages the SL, Mandarins and SLN. Furthermore war is an uncertain thing. It is not inconceivable that GA personnel (uniformed or otherwise) may get captured at some stage in the conflict. Not having prisoners to exchange compromises the GA's ability to A) Get their prisoners back and B) Ensure 'Geneva Convention' treatment of their own.[/quote] Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by Brigade XO
» Sat Jun 07, 2014 9:01 pm
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Brigade XO
Posts: 3115
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You absoluitly don't want to give any of the SLN POWs back to the SL. They represent much of the experienced (even if it is that they have been through one massive defeat) other than the FF units which have actually been doing things like killing pirates and pounding rebellions to mush.
You need to get them somewhere safe and out of under foot- similar to what Haven is described as having done with RMN POW or Baroness Madusa has done on Spindle. Then---set up free message service for all of them to start sending letter home. How much can any of them except a few of the bridge and sensor techs tell the SLN about RMN and RHN equipment and tactics that hasn't already been passed along in the reports from surviving Sr. SLN officers that Manticor shipped off to Earth? All of those people writing to how many people back in the league about how badly (and easily the SLN fleets (there have been two now) have been defeated is going to make lousey press for the Mandarins and the SLN in general. Sure, Manticore ONI or someone has to screen the messages for potential problem content but the majority will be mixing the soup back home about getting the war over. |
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by BobfromSydney
» Sat Jun 07, 2014 11:37 pm
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BobfromSydney
Posts: 226
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Your points are well taken. This is the kind of breakup scenario that I expect to see unless the SL member stars get scared into sticking with the SL against the GA. My perspective is that a great deal of the 'public opinion' is still uncommitted within the Solarian League. There are a few reasons why I think this may be the case: 1. The Mandarins have direct control over the Ministry of Education and Information. 2. The Solarian Media have historically not been kind to Manticore. 3. The Solarian Media have historically not been kind to the concept of truthful and unbiased reporting. Accuracy and fairness have certainly taken a back seat. In fact accuracy and fairness might be sitting in the boot, rolled up in a carpet. 4. The Mesan alignment certainly want to break up the SL, but they don't want the GA securing a position of primacy or supremacy. 5. The average Sollie is sheltered and rather ambivalent. The war's effects on them may be just barely felt, or not felt at all (so far). 6. The GA are considered 'Neo-barbs'. This automatically makes them look unfavourable to the average Sollie. Why do I think it's a bad idea to attack Sol? Sol/Earth (I doubt the common person would make the distinction) is considered to be the mother of the human species and the center of human civilisation. There's a reason why 'T-Whisky' is such an expensive and prestigious beverage. Ordinary Solarians would probably feel some kind of distaste for whoever chooses to 'bring war to Earth'. Basically I think attacking Sol gives the Mandarins a chance to 'wave the bloody shirt' and rally support for the SL (by demonising the GA). If enough members are willing to elevate the SL into a real military alliance (contributing funds and military force) and not just a trade federation then the GA is looking at long term trouble. I think if star systems feel threatened by the GA as 'hegemonistic/marauding neobarbs' they will go towards the SL rather than away from it. In the end the USA didn't beat the USSR by bombing Moscow - the USSR broke up by itself for economic and political reasons. Also consider what you are saying - if the GA destroys the SL military directly and makes the SL member systems with only LACs feel exposed and vulnerable - what makes you think those systems will run to the GA with open arms? If an outsider walks into town and shoots the sheriff I certainly wouldn't be sending them flowers, even if I thought the sheriff was an fool. The GA in my opinion are not 'doing nothing' they are allowing the SL leadership to collapse due to lack of funding and alienating the membership. Pretty soon the current SL leadership will be 'voted out' by the membership (one way or another) and many systems will be voting with their feet. Maybe if the GA launches an offensive it will speed this up slightly and catalyse it. But it could also potentially backfire disastrously. I don't think it's worth the risk. |
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by lyonheart
» Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:26 am
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi BobfromSidney,
The SL is not the monolith you keep proclaiming it to be, it simply can't do what you profess to fear, ie gain strength from the GA removing its putative military power. The substantive effect of that act will definitely put the SL's economic well being into question if not its very survival, even if they start with the rest of the SLN reserve and bases. Given the SL doesn't have 5 years if that; worrying about a long term threat of a SL reborn with intelligent vigorous leadership etc is kind of pointless. The argument for leaving Sol alone has been made before, until we get some snippets from HH #15, we'll see more. Your sheriff analogy ignores the fact he's more a bully and criminal than anyone else around, so yes there will be lots of people relieved he's gone, NTM thankful to whoever took him out. Mike and HA-H don't seem to be of the 'leave them alone' persuasion either, then adding the fact they certainly have the support of the GA leadership, that doesn't appear to be the GA strategy. The pitiful 'leave them alone' mentality was certainly expressed by western liberals [in the ridiculous hope they'd leave us alone] during the cold war yet Reagan did anything but leave the soviets alone. Of course, I don't expect the GA to attack Terra tomorrow [ie October 1922 PD] but I do expect it to happen, possibly after the rest of the BF bases and reserve has been destroyed [probably sooner rather than later], so the threat is obvious; 'destroy them or we will' making the SL's impotence even at Sol obvious to all adults one more time in another way. It's been about a year since first NT, almost a year since 2nd NT, around 9 month's from Crandall's crazed public invasion of Spindle and over 4 month's from Filaretta's failed echo at 2ndBoMA; and we still haven't yet seen any major reaction from the verge, protectorate and shell when they ought to have been coming into the GA month's ago at least, if not rather slower to the mandarins who do know how hated they are in the shell, protectorates and verge, and even in the core. The mandarins know their house of cards is going to collapse in a few month's, but between taking Mesa and the Meyers sector, the GA isn't going to let up in demonstrating just how incompetent and ignorant it is. Once the SL does collapse, do you leave the BF reserve for scavengers to grab and use? If the SL self destructs sooner from economic weakness, lack of money, and or perceived military impotence, which will get the most credit? L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by BobfromSydney
» Sun Jun 08, 2014 5:26 am
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BobfromSydney
Posts: 226
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Hello, Lyonheart
I think the GA may be better off taking down OFS/FF regional commands and getting as much propaganda regarding the widespread abuses perpetrated in the Solarian League's name out to the core worlds as possible. Not only does this damage the SL's reputation and morale, stretch the SLN even thinner if they wish to respond it also damages the last remaining income source for the SL. This removing the fuel from the fire strategy is what I would suggest to bring the SL budget crisis to a critical point. In a sense all SL targets are 'soft' by GA standards, but FF/OFS targets would be softer than most. Targeting them would decrease the SLN's active strength, rather than their potential strength. Also crippling OFS/FF would act as enablers for self-determination movements on various planets to succeed (maybe with a helpful nudge from the GA?). Although these shell and verge planets may not necessarily have any immediate financial/military benefit to offer the GA, it may lead to trade agreements, intelligence sharing and potentially basing rights as well as political support/participation in any from of multi-national body the GA wishes to set up after the war. So I'm not advocating no military action. I'm advocating targeting the SL's last remaining resource base, rather than attacking BF, which is a resource sink. I also think action in the verge and shell covered with the right propaganda will be more effective than direct assault on the seat of human culture, governance and society. Let the Mandarins sit impotently (or better, run around counter-productively) while the last resource base of the SL is eliminated. I also think action on the fringes takes advantage of the GA's better lines of communication, so Sol will not be able to respond in a timely/effective manner to events in the shell/verge. |
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by Jonathan_S
» Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:52 pm
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Jonathan_S
Posts: 8300
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The problem I see with this variation of the sheriff analogy is that the SLN/OFS is a somewhat selective bully and criminal. He does provide protection to rich (the core worlds were most of the industrial capability lives) and mostly preys on the weak and outcasts (the shell and verge which are exploited by the rich, but aren't economic or industrial powerhouses) So killing the bully might make the downtrodden happy (although even there people are surprisingly illogical and can be happy that the bully is gone while simultaneously hating you for being the one to intervene), but it's less likely to make the rich and powerful happy - and they're more the very ones you want to prevent from developing any real loyalty to the idea of a strong centralized League. Given the disparity in military power I'm almost tempted to argue for a largely reactionary response. Wait until the SLN attacks or raids a GA system, defeat or drive off that force and only then launch a response raid against the sector logistics base that supported the raid. That cedes too much initiative to them, but from a PR standpoint it keeps the message that the GA is the victim and that they only want this stupidity to end. While they're willing to respond with force, they're keeping it somewhat proportional - not, say, taking out the entire orbital infrastructure of every League world within 100 ly of any GA space just to throw a kink in the logistics of the SLN. (Of course trying to keep "proportional" force can get you into a Vietnam situation, but being perceived or portrayed to be beating up on the underdog can engender support for them, so it's a bit of a fine line) |
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by kzt
» Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:09 pm
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kzt
Posts: 11351
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OFS "peacekeeping" issues have as much significance to the average SL citizen as the endless UN peacekeeper child rape scandals do to citizens of the west. Does this keep you up a night, knowing that your taxes go to pay for this kind of thing? I didn't think so.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_sexu ... acekeepers http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... le4462151/ |
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| Re: GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL | |
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by lyonheart
» Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:02 pm
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Jonathan_S,
We may differ here on the best approach to smash the SL, I'm not too worried about hurting the Sollie feelings; learning that the people you left in charge were incompetent is painful and terrifying, but how do you tone down the results of their own ignorance? Only hit them half as hard as they deserve? We appear to a couple of possible tactical schools here; BobfromSidney's attack only the protectorates to eliminate the mandarin's last source of capital, and your 'more measured or proportional response'. First, given Lacoon 2's virtual blockade of the SL core, much of the protectorate revenue isn't getting through or getting there far later than the bureaucrats can afford, without direct GA military action, though I suspect that will be happening in a rather major way soon, but not for Bob's economic reasons. Given the mandarin's attitude toward the constitution, I suspect amending it to permit direct taxation is quite possible if they got 75% of the vote in the EC against Beowulf, though I am sure many more systems will quit if it is attempted since it will prove what Beowulf said was true. IOW, the economic factors while important won't drive the GA's protectorate offensive, which won't require many if any capitol ships permanently, which thus will handle the core and shell. However RFC has hinted the value of the Solarian Credit depends on it apparent or appreciative value, which if dashed by evidence its military is totally worthless drops the SC into the sewer, so smashing the BF reserve rather dramatically serves the economic war aspect far better than dragging it out going after the protectorate service fees. Further comments below:
[/Given the SL has been the 800 kilo gorilla in the room for the last 7-8 centuries, making them the underdog overnight is a remarkable twist indeed.  Your concern over offending the rich industrialized systems in the core is something I'm sure the GA is aware of in far more detail, and given RFC's warnings about neighbors building up their SDF's because they have plans for or fears of their neighbors indicates our limited reading of various character's thoughts aren't all of those expecting the SL to crash sooner than later, so the GA will pick up more allies there too, neutralizing attempts to unify against the GA or just the SEM quite handily. Between the MAlign and the GA, the collapse is going to be far faster than the MAlign expected, which will continue to mess up their plans, compelling Albrecht to make more adjustments that will also fail, until some alpha line [one of his "sons'?] decides he's really the problem, then does something about it.  L PS: After the Yawata strike and almost 20 years of conflict killing millions, I don't think the GA's seeking any 'fine line' victories, but if you have any textev, I'm willing to read it again. Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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