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Shifting economic balance

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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by cthia   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:19 pm

cthia
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Amaroq wrote:
HungryKing wrote:You have to remember that Gweon is an agent of the Alignment who probably has instructions to present data in a way furthers the disintregration of the League and disrupts the GA's ability to pick up the pieces.


This was the point I was going to make. How much is truth and how much is playing games with the data to make it look the way Mesa wants it to (or to make the SL see what Mesa wants it to)? Things could be far worse than we think and Gweon is trying to get the SL to underestimate the severity of the problem or they could be better than he indicates but he's trying to panic them into doing (more) stupid things.


That possibility of duplicity is very amusing. But the question I posited in the one-liners thread before the transplant to here, is to what ends? What Machiavellian outcome could McGeon be cooking up?

I'm thinking, in my warped greedy 'battles' mind, that Mesa will supply better technology to the League, upgraded missiles for example, for another grand finale of baby chicks swimming out to near pike!

from one-liners thread...
Cthia wrote:

Whitecold's analysis is frightening. You're suggesting that Captain McGweon is playing all of them as Byng was being played to commit 'hari kari.' After blowing smoke up Byng's ass it was easy to push that baby chick into a stream of near pike. Saved like O'Hanrahan for one big important lie cues...Pink Panther music.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Hutch   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:20 pm

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cthia wrote: .......When Superman caught the falling Lois Lane why didn't the sudden change in vector cause some maladies?

I posit that Superman is able to quickly adjust his vector, quicker than the camera action can capture. Same premise, for my own suspension of belief, an explanation only has to make sense to me. However, an explanation as to how it could work I have posited. I don't wish to disprove the literature that I love. I like to give supporting arguments.


Sorry for the derail, but have you ever had the opportunity to read "Man of Steel, Woman of Kleenex", by the noted SF author Larry Niven? The only place I know it exists is in one of his short story collections "All the Myraid Ways", which is a great story, too). It is a serious essay into the 'facts' of Superman's love life.... :o

Might keep an eye out for it next trip to the used book store or Amazon...
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What? Look, somebody's got to have some damn perspective around here! Boom. Sooner or later. BOOM! -LT. Cmdr. Susan Ivanova, Babylon 5
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by cthia   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:28 pm

cthia
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Hutch wrote:
cthia wrote: .......When Superman caught the falling Lois Lane why didn't the sudden change in vector cause some maladies?

I posit that Superman is able to quickly adjust his vector, quicker than the camera action can capture. Same premise, for my own suspension of belief, an explanation only has to make sense to me. However, an explanation as to how it could work I have posited. I don't wish to disprove the literature that I love. I like to give supporting arguments.


Sorry for the derail, but have you ever had the opportunity to read "Man of Steel, Woman of Kleenex", by the noted SF author Larry Niven? The only place I know it exists is in one of his short story collections "All the Myraid Ways", which is a great story, too). It is a serious essay into the 'facts' of Superman's love life.... :o

Might keep an eye out for it next trip to the used book store or Amazon...


Considering that none of you have even come close to steering me wrong on book recommendations...I am slobbering. I will quickly place it on my inbox list...there!

Thanx!

Damn, you really got the cat's curiosity in me meowing.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by cthia   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:47 pm

cthia
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What are the League/Solarian League Navy financial resources?

Chris is also right, though perhaps not as strongly so as he has argued, about the League's attitude towards naval spending. Despite the League's enormous (read incalculable) wealth, the League government is usually on fairly tight fiscal rations. Proportionately, most of the League's member governments, however poor, have much higher tax revenues than the central government does. This is, in large part, intentional. When the League was first organized, its charter members had been independent worlds and star systems for as much as a thousand years. They had no intention of resigning their individual sovereignties to a central government, especially not one which--by the nature of things--would be arthritic in operation if only because of the communication delays. Accordingly, they opted for a very decentralized federalism and, taking a page from the frames of the US Constitution, deliberately designed as much "grit" as possible into the system to prevent the central government from gradually (and naturally) evolving into something more powerful than they wanted. Accordingly, the League government's funding sources are specifically limited by the League Constitution... and direct taxation of League citizens is expressly prohibited. The central government is funded by a collection of import duties, customs fees, direct assessments for naval spending, etc., plus additional voluntary contributions. This means that while the absolute amount of cash flowing through the League's coffers is stupendous, it is actually quite low compared to the many things the government has to pay for. (This problem has become even more pronounced over the last 200-300 years as the SL's bureaucracies have grown larger and larger. In a very real sense, the bureaucrats are trying to sneak around the flank of the deliberately decentralized Constitution by gradually extending the areas--both physical and governmental--which are controlled by League regulation rather than by League legislation. As this growth has continued, an ever greater slice of the total federal budget has been absorbed by the bureaucracy at the expense of other, more traditional organs of the government... like the Navy. At the same time, the Navy has also developed into a bureaucratic monster which has not fought a war--or seriously considered the need to--for at least 200 years.)

Ok, this is from the pearls that SWM recommended I read. Thanks SWM. But it doesn't answer where the cash cow is for the League. Is it the Core Worlds which represent the bulk of their economy? What? I initially thought the League's main wealth was comprised of The Core Worlds, but a passage, cited in the one-liners thread implies that I'm wrong. Anyone care to enlighten me?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:52 pm

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cthia wrote:Ok, this is from the pearls that SWM recommended I read. Thanks SWM. But it doesn't answer where the cash cow is for the League. Is it the Core Worlds which represent the bulk of their economy? What? I initially thought the League's main wealth was comprised of The Core Worlds, but a passage, cited in the one-liners thread implies that I'm wrong. Anyone care to enlighten me?
I would say the bulk of the League economy is in the core worlds.

But because of the bizarre tax/tariff scheme their government is saddled with, a surprising amount of the government funding comes from the protectorates. (Now whether that's 30%, 50%, or 70% of funding I've no idea. Certainly it seems enough in excess of League government expenses out there that it's an irreplaceable part of their current budget structure)

I believe they're getting more income out there because they're providing services there to the transstellers who are economically exploiting the protectorate; and the SL government can charge businesses for providing services. In the core those services are (if necessary) done by the system government and the League government only gets the basic import duties, customs fees, etc; a much smaller amount.


So even though the trade with a protectorate is a lot less money moving around than in a core world economy, the government through direct fees and payments for services gets a much bigger chunk of it. (Plus there are a lot more protectorates than there are code systems, so they git a bigger piece of many more smaller pies)
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Tenshinai   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:56 pm

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cthia wrote:Laffer Curve


Well, at least that one can be thrown on the scrapheap of history, now that my country spent 7 years of proving it wrong, very, very wrong.
:roll:

Anyhow, economics is not called The Dismal Science for nothing....


Indeed, it is no more science than psychology is a science. Which is, not the slightest.

*I don't know what anyone in the Honorverse would do with molyddenum or why it would be crucial. I don't even know it's properties. But I think it has a neat sounding name so I used it for my example. Chemists, Geologists and Astrophysicists can **** off if they disagree...

Oh it´s a very useful raw material. Used for the metal in some machine tools for example, commonly used added to steel to get better strength.

Well, I had to take three economics classes when I was in College (so many years ago), and it sure was dismal to my Grade point average....

Which may indicate that you actually understood economics. :mrgreen:

If the SL breaks into roughly 3 equal sections with 1 section pro Grand Alliance

I think that is a questionable assumption.

IIRC, the GA currently controls about ~300 star systems. That's about 15% the size of the SL.

So the official SL has 2000 systems, most of which have larger populations and industrial bases than ANY planets in the GA.

While the available money for the SL to spend on navy stuff might be quickly outrun due to its poorly made rules, overall economy, nah.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by cthia   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:49 pm

cthia
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Tenshinai wrote:
cthia wrote:Laffer Curve


Well, at least that one can be thrown on the scrapheap of history, now that my country spent 7 years of proving it wrong, very, very wrong.
:roll:
Well, I had to take three economics classes when I was in College (so many years ago), and it sure was dismal to my Grade point average....

Which may indicate that you actually understood economics. :mrgreen:

Funny! Funny, because it's true.

Also, your country did some fair work in proving some concepts right, as well.

Like the practicality of Geothermal Energy which I wish another country, ahem, would take serious notice.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Dca   » Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:47 pm

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We know Gweon is a plant, although he says he's giving good analysis for now. But the comment about direct taxation seems like a potential plant of an idea to flower later. Given how casually the Mandarins followed up with discussion of what the constitution permits and treason, it wouldn't surprise me if they took this one for a ride. They might even be able to make it stick, in systems who couldn't defend themselves ... Or ally with someone else who could. But is this the best use of Gweon? He probably has more pot-stirring to do. But still, might be a "good" result for a first meeting.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by SWM   » Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:50 am

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Tenshinai wrote:
SWM wrote:It is the League's own analysis (in ART) which says that if Manticore maintains control of the wormholes, the combined economic power of Haven and Manticore will surpass the League's within ten to fifteen years, assuming the League even lasts that long.


“Essentially, the federal government would have to impose direct taxation in some form in order to compensate. There’s an enormous amount of wealth in the League’s economy, even—or especially—in the Core Worlds, alone. If there were some way to tap that wealth, it would completely transform our current analysis of the competing economic trends.”
Tax output and total economy isn´t the same thing.


That's the wrong passage. That passage is talking about how the League can get enough money to fund the war effort. The text describing the Solarian economic analysis of Manticore versus the League is:
"In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”

And:
"I believe those projections are solid. And I'm very much afraid that even they rest on some fairly optimistic assumptions."
. . .
"The two most problematic of those assumptions are that, first, we'll be able to muster the resources on the fedral level to support an ongoing, lengthy, conflict. And, second, that the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough for us to overcome the other side's technological advantages."
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by TheMonster   » Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:52 pm

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Tenshinai wrote:
cthia wrote:Laffer Curve
Well, at least that one can be thrown on the scrapheap of history, now that my country spent 7 years of proving it wrong, very, very wrong.
:roll:
How could it possibly be proven wrong?

The Laffer Curve is simply the observation that tax rates of 0 and 100% both produce no revenue at all, increasing the tax rate above 0 and decreasing it below 100% both increase revenue until the peak is reached somewhere in the middle. It does not say exactly where the peak is; only that there is one.

You might well have proven that the peak exists at a higher marginal rate than the people who controlled things at the time thought, but the fundamental idea: that if you start at 0 revenue on both ends, you must hit a maximum somewhere between those ends, is not really arguable.
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