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Shifting economic balance

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Shifting economic balance
Post by SWM   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:46 am

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So Cthia has brought up the subject of the shifting economic balance. He cites Captain Gweon's analysis that the economy of the Grand Alliance could surpass the economy of the Solarian League within ten to fifteen years. Since the subject seems to have interest, I'm restarting it here to keep the one-liners thread relatively safe. :D

Cthia, in response to one of your questions, yes, it is fairly clear that Manticore could accelerate the situation. Specifically, Gweon noted that her analysis depended on a couple of optimistic assumptions--that the League would be able to fund the military and research expenditures to reach parity with the Manticoran fleet, and that the League would actually survive long enough to do so. Naturally, if Manticore manages to break the League up, it will greatly accelerate the date which the Alliance economy surpasses the League.

On the other hand, there is a limit to how fast the economy of the Alliance can grow. If you want to estimate how long it would take the Grand Alliance to equal the economy that the League has right now, then I doubt that it can be done in less than Gweon's ten to fifteen years. As is noted in that text, the Solarian economy is many times that of Manticore. It will take time for the trade routes to be established. It will take more time for the economies of Haven, Silesia, the Talbott Cluster, and the rest of the Verge to grow.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by kenl511   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:08 am

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SWM wrote:So Cthia has brought up the subject of the shifting economic balance. He cites Captain Gweon's analysis that the economy of the Grand Alliance could surpass the economy of the Solarian League within ten to fifteen years. Since the subject seems to have interest, I'm restarting it here to keep the one-liners thread relatively safe. :D

Cthia, in response to one of your questions, yes, it is fairly clear that Manticore could accelerate the situation. Specifically, Gweon noted that her analysis depended on a couple of optimistic assumptions--that the League would be able to fund the military and research expenditures to reach parity with the Manticoran fleet, and that the League would actually survive long enough to do so. Naturally, if Manticore manages to break the League up, it will greatly accelerate the date which the Alliance economy surpasses the League.

On the other hand, there is a limit to how fast the economy of the Alliance can grow. If you want to estimate how long it would take the Grand Alliance to equal the economy that the League has right now, then I doubt that it can be done in less than Gweon's ten to fifteen years. As is noted in that text, the Solarian economy is many times that of Manticore. It will take time for the trade routes to be established. It will take more time for the economies of Haven, Silesia, the Talbott Cluster, and the rest of the Verge to grow.


But those economies will grow! One of the purposes of the SL is to grow economies (promote commerce and trade) and it has failed miserably. The only economies it grows are those of the Core Worlds. It loots the economies with the best growth potential. Take away the SL and the economies and industrial potential grows!

Manticore and Haven (The whole GA for that matter) both have lots of practice growing system economies. They have the incentive and shared interest in doing so. The Verge economies also have interest in being grown.

I wonder about the Shell. If one of the legacies of their time as protectorates is the captive economy/company town of a Core World Transtellar model we have seen in the Protectorates and Verge or something similar.

I also would be interested in seeing some of the Sollie Transtellars try to cut deals with the GA and see if they try to engage in business as usual with Elizabeth and Eloise (and what is left of the Sollie Transtellars afterward).

In terms of "nationalizing" Sollie assets in newly liberated systems, I would like to see the idea of "compensating our planetary population" approach. Apply written SL rules for calculating damages to the people as individuals and collectively and bill the Transtellar. Offset with the value of the seized assets and bill the Transtellar in question for the balance.

Just some ideas from a former welfare worker who tried creating jobs for recipients in isolated areas.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by HungryKing   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:43 pm

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You have to remember that Gweon is an agent of the Alignment who probably has instructions to present data in a way furthers the disintregration of the League and disrupts the GA's ability to pick up the pieces.

Besides, the point that he is making is that an important component of the league's trade patterns is exports from the core to the verge and protectorates. It may not be a large component, but economically it is very important, in metaphor, those exports are why the economic engine of the league is not in a permanent idle state.

Now, not only is most of that trade difficult because of travel time, and the fact that Sollie traders used in the area are short haulers, but the GA is going to gobble up that traffic and use it as cause for economic activity.

Note how Gweon is recommending infrastructure raids against the GA, if the point is prevent the GA from absorbing the trade, it would be better to simply send BC squadrons and SD divisions to the protectorates, in nodal packets large enough that the GA shouldn't feel tempted to try light forces, but not large enough to attract a GA Battle Squadron, and CAs out to burn the verge's trading infrastructure.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by SWM   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:00 pm

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kenl511 wrote:
SWM wrote:So Cthia has brought up the subject of the shifting economic balance. He cites Captain Gweon's analysis that the economy of the Grand Alliance could surpass the economy of the Solarian League within ten to fifteen years. Since the subject seems to have interest, I'm restarting it here to keep the one-liners thread relatively safe. :D

Cthia, in response to one of your questions, yes, it is fairly clear that Manticore could accelerate the situation. Specifically, Gweon noted that her analysis depended on a couple of optimistic assumptions--that the League would be able to fund the military and research expenditures to reach parity with the Manticoran fleet, and that the League would actually survive long enough to do so. Naturally, if Manticore manages to break the League up, it will greatly accelerate the date which the Alliance economy surpasses the League.

On the other hand, there is a limit to how fast the economy of the Alliance can grow. If you want to estimate how long it would take the Grand Alliance to equal the economy that the League has right now, then I doubt that it can be done in less than Gweon's ten to fifteen years. As is noted in that text, the Solarian economy is many times that of Manticore. It will take time for the trade routes to be established. It will take more time for the economies of Haven, Silesia, the Talbott Cluster, and the rest of the Verge to grow.


But those economies will grow! One of the purposes of the SL is to grow economies (promote commerce and trade) and it has failed miserably. The only economies it grows are those of the Core Worlds. It loots the economies with the best growth potential. Take away the SL and the economies and industrial potential grows!

Manticore and Haven (The whole GA for that matter) both have lots of practice growing system economies. They have the incentive and shared interest in doing so. The Verge economies also have interest in being grown.

Of course they will grow. I specifically said they would. My point was that it would take a little time for them to grow. It can't happen instantly. Ten to fifteen years is actually a rather short period of time for the economy to double three or four times.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by cthia   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:03 pm

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The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”


My considerations are thus. The GA has plenty of experience building up it's navies. Neither the RMN or RHN has had to build from scratch in a very long time, yet both has been in positions of needing to bid for time to support said build-ups. Oscar St. Just, say what you will about him, was instrumental in Haven's surviving long enough to build it's navy to a competitive posture. Even then, enormous amounts of monies were diverted to Bolthole. Having said that, it appears to me that the GA would be foolish to give The League the time it needs to build its navy. Kick a gorilla while it's down? Hell yea. In what manner should the GA go about hitting the SLN in its pockets?
“Essentially, the federal government would have to impose direct taxation in some form in order to compensate. There’s an enormous amount of wealth in the League’s economy, even—or especially—in the Core Worlds, alone. If there were some way to tap that wealth, it would completely transform our current analysis of the competing economic trends.”

This passage seems to imply that the League's current cash cow isn't the Core Worlds, which is different from what I presumed. Of course the passage alludes to the potential of raising revenue with the help of the Core Worlds, via taxation. If the Core Worlds are not the mainstay of the Leagues economic power, exactly wherein lies the cash cow?

A parallel consideration is how can the League impose such stiff taxes without informing elected civilians of the need and the why. I am thinking of the problem Elizabeth had funding the Navy after that asshole Janacek supported a build-down. There is no formal declaration of war, and without the formal support of the federal government, how is the League supposed to fund such a massive undertaking of, first researching, developing and then building a navy from scratch, considering the negative impact on the Core Worlds, from the inevitable enormous burden?

Having the experience that the GA has it seems their strategy would be to not only ensure the SLN does not get the time it needs to build up its navy but an aggressive raiding of important economic regions is a no brainer, along with aggressive blockades.

In summary, it would be irresponsible for the GA to allow The SLN the time for economic or military growth.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by SWM   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:24 pm

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cthia wrote:This passage seems to imply that the League's current cash cow isn't the Core Worlds, which is different from what I presumed. Of course the passage alludes to the potential of raising revenue with the help of the Core Worlds, via taxation. If the Core Worlds are not the mainstay of the Leagues economic power, exactly wherein lies the cash cow?

See this Pearl:
http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/200/1

Basically, the League constitution prohibits direct taxation of citizens by the central goverment. What individual member nations do for their local governments is up to them and their own constitutions. That means that the central government of the Solarian League has to get its money from import duties, customs fees, voluntary contributions, and other indirect fees. Note that increasing these will also have a negative effect on the Solarian economy. A significant part of the available money has probably come from what the transstellars have ripped from the Verge.
A parallel consideration is how can the League impose such stiff taxes without informing elected civilians of the need and the why. I am thinking of the problem Elizabeth had funding the Navy after that asshole Janacek supported a build-down. There is no formal declaration of war, and without the formal support of the federal government, how is the League supposed to fund such a massive undertaking of, first researching, developing and then building a navy from scratch, considering the negative impact on the Core Worlds, from the inevitable enormous burden?

The problem is even worse, because direct taxation is illegal, they have never had a tax before, and formal motions can be vetoed by any member nation.
Having the experience that the GA has it seems their strategy would be to not only ensure the SLN does not get the time it needs to build up its navy but an aggressive raiding of important economic regions is a no brainer, along with aggressive blockades.

In summary, it would be irresponsible for the GA to allow The SLN the time for economic or military growth.

The discussions we have seen in Manticore in MoH and ART make it clear that Manticore is fully aware of that, and they do not intend to let the Solarian League get its feet back on the ground. We haven't yet seen how they intend to do that.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by kzt   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:26 pm

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SWM wrote:My point was that it would take a little time for them to grow. It can't happen instantly. Ten to fifteen years is actually a rather short period of time for the economy to double three or four times.

Growth that fast seems pretty suspicious. But David Weber books are not where you go to learn about economics. The entire employment and economic structure of Manticore as presented is absurd.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:52 pm

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The SL is in a poor position to increase its revenue from fees. It has lost quite a few wormholes and their income streams.
While the trade inside the Core and even the Shell is probably significant, those markets are having problems right now. They lack the shipping to move the goods even between Core and Shell worlds
The Verge and beyond is even worse. Not only don’t they have the shipping (thank you Lacoon I & II) they are have lost access to a lot of the places they either acquired goods and materials and the markets those systems represented.
OFS, its various partner regimes and the TranStellars who have been looting the Verge and Protectorates are having those systems taken away from them. Even where there has not already been an uprising or there is trouble brewing, the shipping is missing. Goods taken from the Verge and other Frontier worlds (or just poor ones that have to export to acquire anything to build their own production) are no longer flowing in the direction of the SL. Each time one of these “protected” systems is removed from the grasp of OFS and its friends, the money stops flowing to the SL and mostly is more or less available for the Systems and their inhabitants to trade in their own interests and to build their own economies and infrastructure. They may not want to set up shipyards but they are going to want to control more of the revenue possible from selling what they produce AND at least start to manufacture more goods and equipment and products at home. The inference from the story line is that that trade will now shift to the GA and its friends. That is both because it is places like Manticore that has the shipping (and can protect it) and OFS (and co-conspiritors) can’t set artificially low prices for local goods in a captive economic environment that in many cases is just slightly above serfdom.

That is not to say that the Mandarins can’t fund the rebuilding of an SLN on debt or just by issuing credits but it becomes a question of who will buy that debt or extend credit for things like new Battlecrusiers.

The GA, with Haven and Manticore coming out of the war, the opening of Talbott to real competitive trade and the situation in Selisia opening up (with the cleaning up of the political, criminal and local territorial squabbles there) provide a potential for great economic growth whereas the SL has been cut off from markets and sources of both goods and materials it wants.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by Tenshinai   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:03 pm

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Shifting economic balance


Unless i´ve completely misread the source material, this is incorrect.

But as others have noted more or less, the balance of potential tax incomes, yup, that could totally take a leap.

However, if the SL manages to get itself "fixed" before the highly likely collapse, the potential economy it could put to use is utterly massive.

There´s simply too many planets with HUGE populations that could be exploited vastly more effective if needed and allowed.
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Re: Shifting economic balance
Post by TheMonster   » Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:48 pm

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cthia wrote: Neither the RMN or RHN has had to build from scratch in a very long time, yet both has been in positions of needing to bid for time to support said build-ups.
Who was the second-ranking uniformed member of the GSN when it was built essentially from scratch? (Who built stole the Protector's Own (née ESN) from nothing but a couple of shuttles?) The CO of Grand Fleet, that's who! (And her husband is First Lord of the Admiralty, which might come in handy.)

So they do have quite a bit of institutional experience with this, right where it counts.
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