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Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations

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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by SWM   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:29 am

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Lord Skimper wrote:Old people costs are already a problem with old people living to late 70's to early 90's. When old people start living from 222 to 315. That's going to be a long time on a pension, long time in a retirement home.

Now presumably dimensia will be cured otherwise it and arthritis and other age related diseases are going to be a problem.

Actually, the text indicates that prolong postpones age-related disease until very late. Basically, you stay healthy until you are very old, then fail rapidly. The time that you would be incapacitated by old age is actually shorter than in our current society.

But you might have a point regarding how long one might live with other forms of incapacitation, not related to aging.
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by JohnRoth   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:41 am

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I'm not sure where prolong came from. I originally thought it was a plot patch to give Honor Harrington time to do everything she was supposed to, but looking at the timeline she would be a bit under 60 at the Battle of Manticore, which would be a decent age for a full Admiral in an "Age of Sail" equivalent that was physically less stressful than the "ships of wood, men of steel" archetype.

My suspicion is that RFC had a few notes about how he was going to handle it when Part II was scheduled to start 30 to 40 years after the Battle of Manticore; collapsing the series because of Eric Flint's participation means we're not going to see what he had in mind, which I think is a real pity. The subject needs a writer of David Weber's caliber.

It's one of those ideas that seems to be interesting, but once you open the can of worms it just gets worse and worse. As a number of people have suggested, the changes to society would be profound.

I can see any number of ways it could go, but none of the ones I regard as likely have anything like inheritance, nuclear families, letting long term investments accumulate or positions whose incumbents block subordinate's promotions. In other words, the changes would be sufficiently profound and radical that I find it hard to discuss them coherently. The fundamental assumptions are simply too different.
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by SWM   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:47 am

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JohnRoth wrote:I can see any number of ways it could go, but none of the ones I regard as likely have anything like inheritance, nuclear families, letting long term investments accumulate or positions whose incumbents block subordinate's promotions. In other words, the changes would be sufficiently profound and radical that I find it hard to discuss them coherently. The fundamental assumptions are simply too different.

Yes. To actually thrive, a prolong society would have to change quite radically. And I suspect it would take a couple (prolong) lifetimes before the societal changes were completed. The height of the transition period could be quite difficult.
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by cthia   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:16 am

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SWM wrote:Actually, the text indicates that prolong postpones age-related disease until very late. Basically, you stay healthy until you are very old, then fail rapidly. The time that you would be incapacitated by old age is actually shorter than in our current society.

But you might have a point regarding how long one might live with other forms of incapacitation, not related to aging.


Of course, you are aware that some age-related diseases also strike the fairly young.
Arthritis affects many pre-teens, and can, and do strike across the board.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by JohnRoth   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:23 am

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cthia wrote:
cthia wrote:On the other hand Life Insurance policies and similar ventures would suddenly become quite interesting.
Suddenly, payouts have the potential to become astronomical.


I should have made this clear. Sorry. I only meant that it seems longevity of life would somehow affect the insurance industry. (drawbacks to watching tennis and operating in a forum)

What brought this to my attention is that I recently helped a single mother who was trying to dig herself out of an economic crisis. She was considering selling her policy to a company that purchases policies. Would they be interested if her life expectancy had been so high?

Now I know that some companies are only interested in using the policies as collateral and aren't really concerned with the payout. But still.

As far as astronomical payouts, I was considering ventures such as savings accounts, etc.

Personally I don't own a policy.
My loved one's are looked after in my will.
And my burial expenses shouldn't be a problem unless caskets rise to multi-million dollar expenses.

There are certain headaches that accompany the management of one's portfolio. Tracking the performance of stocks and other investments, and tracking the performance of those you pay handsomely to do this for you, for so long will eventually get on my nerves.


What that company was undoubtedly interested in was cashing it in for its cash value, and they were probably quoting a price that was substantially lower than she could have gotten by cashing it in herself.

Lots of people don't understand insurance, which leads to all kinds of interesting scams, some conducted by the insurance companies themselves.
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by JohnRoth   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:26 am

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cthia wrote:
SWM wrote:Actually, the text indicates that prolong postpones age-related disease until very late. Basically, you stay healthy until you are very old, then fail rapidly. The time that you would be incapacitated by old age is actually shorter than in our current society.

But you might have a point regarding how long one might live with other forms of incapacitation, not related to aging.


Of course, you are aware that some age-related diseases also strike the fairly young.
Arthritis affects many pre-teens, and can, and do strike across the board.


We're mostly talking about societies that have decent medical facilities. Do you really imagine that, after 2000 years, they wouldn't have solved most of the currently existing medical problems?
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by namelessfly   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:41 am

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This situation is not new.

The solution is simple.

Dull knife and no anesthetic.



cthia wrote:
Daryl wrote:Good topic.
I'll throw out a controversial point regarding sexuality, in that I can't see how prolong would lead to harmful sexual predation.

Thanks.

I am not implying that prolong would lead us down that road.
We have already been led, down that road.

I am simply saying that young minds are much more easily confounded than we, as responsible denizens of society, would like.

And IMHO, a drug that would visually lend credence to an already established sexual offender's claim of "I'm not even 18, so it's ok," presents a problem.

I do not agree with an earlier post
would not significantly change their predations. It might cause a few naive sorts to lower their guard in the early years of prolong, but it doesn't take long for people raised with it to adjust to the new norms of "how old does he look".


Which seems to imply that we, even now, have adjusted to how old someone looks.

And isn't that the point that I am trying to make.
You can't allow the filtering process to be sieved into "how old someone looks even in our own society without prolong.

My niece is only 12 years old.
She is rather tall for her age, and if she had not been skipped two grades she would tower over kids in her class.
Her high IQ and striking good looks catches the attention of much older boys.

Several months ago, my sister was hotter than a solar flare because a 23 year old boy tried to pass himself off as 15. The kid looked the part, but he didn't count on my sister's thoroughness.

If any of you believe that a society that looks younger wouldn't inherently make it easier for established sexual offenders are kidding themselves.

I am not saying that prolong will create more offenders.

I am simply saying that it will make it easier for the already established pool of offenders to swim in their dirty deeds.

And although I am not implying that prolong will encourage someone to become a predator, it just might.

Consider a much older gentleman, whom finds himself in an under 21 dance club.

Consider an underage girl of 16 whom has gained access to same club.

Gentleman believes that this beautiful 16 year old is actually 18 or older.

Upon finding she is not, he may very well decide that since she does not suspect his age, it will be ok.
Call it, an opportunistic sex-offense act.
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by cthia   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:53 am

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JohnRoth wrote:
We're mostly talking about societies that have decent medical facilities. Do you really imagine that, after 2000 years, they wouldn't have solved most of the currently existing medical problems?

I could be wrong, but it was my understanding that prolong simply postpones age-related diseases. And since they are simply postponed implies that they still exist. No?

And since the treatment is administered at a certain time of development, the age-related diseases can still be acquired beforehand.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by cthia   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:09 am

cthia
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JohnRoth wrote:
What that company was undoubtedly interested in was cashing it in for its cash value, and they were probably quoting a price that was substantially lower than she could have gotten by cashing it in herself.

Lots of people don't understand insurance, which leads to all kinds of interesting scams, some conducted by the insurance companies themselves.


You are probably right in this particular company's motives, but I am not certain.

Honestly, I wasn't even aware of the practice and I took it to my financial analyst, she gave me some interesting input and led me to this online excerpt...
Waiting For You to Die?
You may be asking yourself why a company would want to purchase someone else's life insurance policy. The short answer is that when the policy is sold, the new owner purchases the right to receive the death benefit at the insured's death. For example, if you agree to sell your life insurance policy to a life settlement company, the company is effectively purchasing the right to receive the death benefit that will pay out at your passing. This is an attractive investment for the company if it believes factors ranging from your health status to the specifics of the life insurance policy are favorable.

Many policy owners who consider selling their policies through life settlement transactions are uneasy about the idea of a life settlement company essentially waiting for them to die. The notion of a company counting down the weeks, months or years until death is not very comforting. Some may even go as far to think that a company will resort to criminal activity in order to get access to the death benefit sooner rather than later. However, keep in mind that life settlement companies are in the business of making money. The companies would eventually put themselves out of business if they engaged in any type of criminal behavior.

Another item worth mentioning is that some entities that purchase life insurance contracts from others couldn't care less about when the insured dies. These entities purchase life insurance policies so they can use them for collateral to obtain loans from banks. The loan may be taken out so the company has additional cash to pursue attractive investments. Whether the insured dies in two years or 20 years means little to the company - the company simply wants to own the policy so it can qualify for a loan today.


Again, I don't own a life insurance policy.
And I fail to see what need millionaires have for such policies.
My friends seem to be split down the middle. Many are millionaires.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Prolong and Unforeseen Considerations
Post by cthia   » Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:24 am

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pldew wrote:
What would be the impact on Prince Roger of 200+ years as Crown Prince, and do you want that? Should the Royal Family start a tradition of planned abdication, rather then death, as the usual way to end a monarch's reign? Or how else to keep society dynamic, and not turn into another Solarian League?


But we get to keep Elizabeth and Honor for a very long time.
Miscreant nano-tech and missiles not considered. :D

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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