SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superiority

Mycall4me wrote:I'm not sure what you meant by victory disease (well, I know what victory disease is, just not NPC?) but I'm pretty sure there isn't any real likelihood of that happening in the GA's case. After what they've observed in the SLN's attitudes, I sincerely doubt that that will become a major problem. Oh sure it already happened to Manticore on High Ridge's watch, but if anything that will be an even bigger reason that it won't happen again, at least not as far as the people in the know are concerned (navy, and other high ranking goverment positions) For instance I doubt if Elizabeth will ever let that happen again, and she is in a position to see to it that it won't. Or Benjamin either.

Is she, though? Elizabeth isn't a dictator, as the whole High Ridge affair showed. Recent constitutional reforms did not increase the Crown's power, it only moved the power from the House of Lords to the House of Commons. And there are very specific constitutional provisions which runs down the electoral preemience which native Manticorans currently enjoy. The Star Empire in 50 to 75 years can become a very different beast to what we expect of the Manticore we're used to.

And it's that new part of Manticore which should be most susceptible to victory disease, given how they got to join up and be quickly victorious without doing much of the heavy lifting. For example, front-row tickets to Crandall's wallers being spanked by cruisers versus audience participation in the Yawata Strike potentially creates two very different perspectives upon future military spending. This is not helped by the simple fact that the Manticore system will always be a higher defensive priority than, say, Spindle or Dresden.

Grayson is sufficiently autocratic yes, but Benjamin himself unfortunately isn't going to be alive for much longer due to not having prolong. There might be a regency and then all that supreme power descends upon a teenager who wasn't even born until six years after Fourth Yeltsin. Spicy.

munroburton wrote:Grayson is sufficiently autocratic yes, but Benjamin himself unfortunately isn't going to be alive for much longer due to not having prolong. There might be a regency and then all that supreme power descends upon a teenager who wasn't even born until six years after Fourth Yeltsin. Spicy.

I would be surprised if Michael, the Protector's brother, does not have prolong; since in HotQ he was hoping to be a graduate student at Manticore. If so, then as the new Protector's uncle, he will be around to advise for a long time and he was the one who gave permission for the events that lead to Third Yeltsin.

Daryl wrote:Sorry to bring a smidgen of reality to this discussion, but it all depends of RFC. He is this universe's creator, and has not just the final say, but all says.

Well of course, but I thought that some of the purposes of the forum was speculation, and hopes to see this or that come to pass. We can all hope at least.

tlb wrote:

munroburton wrote:Grayson is sufficiently autocratic yes, but Benjamin himself unfortunately isn't going to be alive for much longer due to not having prolong. There might be a regency and then all that supreme power descends upon a teenager who wasn't even born until six years after Fourth Yeltsin. Spicy.

I would be surprised if Michael, the Protector's brother, does not have prolong; since in HotQ he was hoping to be a graduate student at Manticore. If so, then as the new Protector's uncle, he will be around to advise for a long time and he was the one who gave permission for the events that lead to Third Yeltsin.

Didn't Michael Mayhew fall victim (among many other formerly prominent characters) get blown up in the Beowolf attacks on the space habitats?

munroburton wrote:

Mycall4me wrote:I'm not sure what you meant by victory disease (well, I know what victory disease is, just not NPC?) but I'm pretty sure there isn't any real likelihood of that happening in the GA's case. After what they've observed in the SLN's attitudes, I sincerely doubt that that will become a major problem. Oh sure it already happened to Manticore on High Ridge's watch, but if anything that will be an even bigger reason that it won't happen again, at least not as far as the people in the know are concerned (navy, and other high ranking goverment positions) For instance I doubt if Elizabeth will ever let that happen again, and she is in a position to see to it that it won't. Or Benjamin either.

Is she, though? Elizabeth isn't a dictator, as the whole High Ridge affair showed. Recent constitutional reforms did not increase the Crown's power, it only moved the power from the House of Lords to the House of Commons. And there are very specific constitutional provisions which runs down the electoral preemience which native Manticorans currently enjoy. The Star Empire in 50 to 75 years can become a very different beast to what we expect of the Manticore we're used to.

And it's that new part of Manticore which should be most susceptible to victory disease, given how they got to join up and be quickly victorious without doing much of the heavy lifting. For example, front-row tickets to Crandall's wallers being spanked by cruisers versus audience participation in the Yawata Strike potentially creates two very different perspectives upon future military spending. This is not helped by the simple fact that the Manticore system will always be a higher defensive priority than, say, Spindle or Dresden.

Grayson is sufficiently autocratic yes, but Benjamin himself unfortunately isn't going to be alive for much longer due to not having prolong. There might be a regency and then all that supreme power descends upon a teenager who wasn't even born until six years after Fourth Yeltsin. Spicy.

Well so was King Roger before the war, and he was able to infuence weapons r&d with project Gram.

And Benjamin isn't dead yet, and with Manticore's medical knowledge there's no reason that he couldn't live for 25 years or more. After all didn't Howard Clinkscales live into his 90's? Benjamin is only in his 50's (?) afterall.

tlb wrote:I would be surprised if Michael, the Protector's brother, does not have prolong; since in HotQ he was hoping to be a graduate student at Manticore. If so, then as the new Protector's uncle, he will be around to advise for a long time and he was the one who gave permission for the events that lead to Third Yeltsin.

Mycall4me wrote:Didn't Michael Mayhew fall victim (among many other formerly prominent characters) get blown up in the Beowolf attacks on the space habitats?

Oh, it looks like you are right. I just found the line in Uncompromising Honor where he was included in the people traveling to the meeting. Now I found the next line where he is listed among the dead.

tlb wrote:

munroburton wrote:Grayson is sufficiently autocratic yes, but Benjamin himself unfortunately isn't going to be alive for much longer due to not having prolong. There might be a regency and then all that supreme power descends upon a teenager who wasn't even born until six years after Fourth Yeltsin. Spicy.

I would be surprised if Michael, the Protector's brother, does not have prolong; since in HotQ he was hoping to be a graduate student at Manticore. If so, then as the new Protector's uncle, he will be around to advise for a long time and he was the one who gave permission for the events that lead to Third Yeltsin.

Yes, Michael Mayhew was young enough to qualify for first generation prolong. Too bad he didn't live long enough to get the benefits from it.

Mycall4me wrote:Well so was King Roger before the war, and he was able to infuence weapons r&d with project Gram.

And Benjamin isn't dead yet, and with Manticore's medical knowledge there's no reason that he couldn't live for 25 years or more. After all didn't Howard Clinkscales live into his 90's? Benjamin is only in his 50's (?) afterall.

Roger III's influence was effective because Haven was obviously expanding. That's what happens when the existence of something like the DuQuesne plan becomes public knowledge, the Havenites name their third largest fleet base(Barnett) DuQuesne and their first (known) class of superdreadnought DuQuesne. Not to mention the hundred or two systems they'd been steadily gobbling up.

What provides that factor for Elizabeth? Haven released all those systems and is allied with Manticore. The second war with Haven only happened because High Ridge didn't finish the first war on Manticore's terms, which is not the case when it comes to the Solarian League. Galton did much to remove the threat of unseen enemies as they now have little reason to fear Darius.

The Manticoran political circumstances have also changed - instead of persuading Lords to see things their way as Roger III had to, Elizabeth now needs the Commons to provide that majority. Which means she needs to win over 50% of the Star Empire's electorate, a considerably larger task even before the Quadrant's electoral value catches up.

Benjamin can hang on for a while, but I think the explanation for how Grayson was able to support such a disproportionate military lies in how they were able to divert the surplus of an enormous economic boom due to extensive modernisation. But that runway isn't infinitely long, even if it does appear to be giving the one in Fast & Furious 6 a... run for its money.

Grayson culture gives its rulers enormous latitude but Keys looking to reassert themselves and reverse Benjamin's seizure of power during HotQ are going to use it as a wedge issue eventually. Against Benjamin, that's not likely to work. But it isn't Benjamin they're pushing against; it's Bernard, who will have only a fraction of Benjamin's personal prestige, experience or connections.

tlb wrote:

jtg452 wrote:'Victory disease' strikes NPC's as much as it hits denizens of message boards.

Mycall4me wrote:I'm not sure what you meant by victory disease (well, I know what victory disease is, just not NPC?) but I'm pretty sure there isn't any real likelihood of that happening in the GA's case.

JTG452 was talking about multi-player online games and comparing to us on message boards. An NPC is a non-player character in one of those games: Free Guy is a recent movie where a NPC (played by Ryan Reynolds) begins to take action on his own volition (instead of just responding to moves by the players). In the first Jumanji movie that starred Dwayne Johnson, the fellow that drove the Land Rover to welcome the players was also a NPC and exhibited all those limitations.

But outside of the movies, NPC's do not get "victory disease", because they do not think nor act; only react.

The Manty politicsl opposition will react by going bsck to their own agenda and, with all that 'free money' not going into defense, they will be pushing their social agenda like mad. Defense cuts to that spectrum of politics acts like chum does for sharks, historically. Himself has shown that he tends to keep true to history and human nature in such things.

I'm also referring to (and poking fun at) the propensity here of any conversation we have devolving into someone suggesting the deployment of so many BC(P)'s or a CLAC and some Sag C's and Rolands.

The British had the same problem at one time. No problem couldn't be solved by deploying a couple regiments of Gurkhas with some supports. Gurkhas were cheaper than Tommies and just as good, or better, within their limits at the time.

jtg452 wrote:
The Manty politicsl opposition will react by going bsck to their own agenda and, with all that 'free money' not going into defense, they will be pushing their social agenda like mad. Defense cuts to that spectrum of politics acts like chum does for sharks, historically. Himself has shown that he tends to keep true to history and human nature in such things.

<snip>

However, the Manty political field is changing - the Lords have lost the power of the Exchequer, San Martin "Peers" and representative are sitting in the houses, and in the next few years, so will reps from Talbot, then hopefully, Silesia.

So the Dynamic, and issues, are a changing. And the wormhole funds will slowly become a smaller percentage of the whole.