Defense of Felix

ThinksMarkedly wrote:How the GA finds out about Felix is actually pretty much irrelevant. I don't think it'll be via data correlation at all, but via leak from human intelligence. And specifically I think her name is Jessica Milliken.

Absolutely irrelevant. Interesting for certain, but still irrelevant. Whatever the gossip that leads to 'the argument in the restaurant' is irrelevant. What is relevant is when the argument moves outside into the parking lot and turns to fisticuffs. Felix is the parking lot. All of the bickering and niggling little details culminates at Felix. I am an Alpha too. So I see it coming. As indeed Darius' Alphas see it coming. Eventually. And a contingency plan is set in place.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:But as I said, how they come about it is irrelevant, because the first thing they're going to do is confirm it. Whether they do it covertly because they believe this is used by criminals or the MAlign, or overtly because they think it's just a great economic find, is again irrelevant. If it's covert, then the scout ship that is sent may have a chance of observing a transit and reporting back. But if the ship is discovered and destroyed, that is also information.

So if the GA's survey ship or scout got destroyed, they send a stealth scout with even more care. Felix may already be infested with spider drive ships, but it doesn't have fixed installation gravitic arrays that can detect and track wedges a light-hour out. Worse, they can't track Ghost Rider drones that well, so this scout will have launched a handful of drones to observe the Junction, then translate back up to the alpha band. It comes back 12 hours later at an RV point, collects the drone data and translates back out in less than 5 minutes. Rinse and repeat.

And scouts are cheap. The GA must have at least a thousand of them. So even if one scouting expedition fails, they can keep sending them.

Meanwhile, Felix can't be used for secret transits any more. More importantly, spider drive ships can't use it because you can't hide the 200-km wide bright, shining Warshawski sails after the transit. So those drones that are now observing the Junction will get very good readings on the nature of the spider drive and the capabilities of the ships using them.

The next step up from this is the denial as I described before: launch missiles at the ships that have just transited, to force them to defend themselves, expend munitions, and possibly take damage to their stealth screens.

We are dealing with Alphas. If Felix is the front door to the secret lair, it will only be used sparingly. And there will never be a spider drive sent through Felix from Darius. Never. Until the opening phases of war! After Galton was discovered - indeed after the MA got wind of a leak - the MAN ordered their own version of a lockdown! At that point, there will only be one way transits from Felix to Darius. Upward translations are not visible.

Question: Can a drone burn through the collective wedges of the MSDF hiding any incoming arrivals? I seem to recall that is exactly what the RMN did at Beowulf with Tsang.

penny wrote:

Theemile wrote:
The Question Penny needs to answer is this:

There are 5000 known populated stars in the Honorverse, and an additional 50,000+ stars inside that sphere that are not known to hold human habitation. For every dot on the map of a known human settlement, there are 150 dots that represent some former, hidden, or un-noticed human settlement or outpost.

Why in all that noise, would the GA attack Felix of all places?

Felix, to the best of our knowledge, is completely off the GA's radar currently. There are no inhabitants, just a failed colony like scores of others, with a handful of rights holders, fighting their ownership in the courts. There is no official traffic, just the MAlign's hidden traffic, and the Nearby Mannerheim which is using the abandoned system as a unofficial naval base. Even this is not unusual - Manticore and other powers routinely patrol nearby unoccupied systems to look for pirate activity, update star charts, and exercise their units.

So Why Felix? and not Wanda, or Broudy, or Topaz? or Star 113-14-227?

-blink-

Time and research or whatever serendipitous reason has led them right to Felix, the same as what led them to Galton. Breadcrumbs can be dangerous.

Theemile wrote:But if you had that info, wouldn't that expose the RF as part of the conspiracy first? This whole argument was that the GA would go directly to the Felix system and find the wormhole without exposing the RF. Any paper trail, or bread crumbs, etc, that go to Felix, also expose the RF (or at least a member) as complicit in the affair as part of the trail, and then to Felix - not Felix and then the RF in turn.

It might expose the RF. But I think you are expecting too much of a windfall. By the numbers ...

1. There is a hidden organization called the MAlignment

2. There is a secret organization called the Renaissance Factor.

3. There is a hidden wormhole

We can argue about whether the MA deserves their Alpha status, but I hardly think anyone in their right mind can expect even simpletons to screw up by the numbers. So, my expectations of the GA finding out about two of the above is slim and none. And it is more likely they will find out about Felix w/o it implicating the RF. It won't even implicate Mannerheim because they have a right to protect their WH. They also have a right to deny passage to anyone. So, we have all arrived here at the scene ...

The Defense of Felix.


BTW, my spider senses have always tingled, and I will say it again. I do not think GA drones will be invisible to the MAN. The LDs will be in serious danger if they are.

We must understand that the GA, certainly her Majesty, is not a bunch of criminals. Nor are they completely devoid of morals, scruples and values. If it is determined that Mannerheim has a secret WH, what right does the GA have to go poking around it? Does Haven have to allow transit anywhere near Refuge?

When it comes right down to it, these things will be handled through diplomatic channels, giving plenty of notice to the MA. Is it legal to drop off drones in a system?* If these drones are detected then how will the GA's government respond to the accusation?

At any rate, wars are usually the result of failed diplomacy, first, and not half-cocked half-baked missions.** The Dudley Dorights of the Manties will seek diplomacy first; which is a long drawn out string of red tape and bureaucracy giving Darius time to react.


* In a system where there is a WH that has already been claimed. Would that not appear as if the GA are possibly claim jumpers? (A term made famous in the era of the gold rush.)

** The Peeps at Basilisk Station notwithstanding

Theemile wrote:Even if the GA finds a wormhole, and sees Traffic passing through it, All it knows is Mannerheim has a secret wormhole - unless it gets a drone close enough to see a spider ship make a wormhole transit. If the average ship transiting is just a standard freighter or dispatch boat (remember, this is a population cut off from the universe, so I wouldn't expect many of either) then there is no smoking gun identifying the Malign.

Agreed. At this point, how they came by the information becomes relevant. If they got intel that Mannerheim/RF has a wormhole, they'd ask Mannerheim about it and offer their services to explore it. If they think that Mannerheim is using it for ill-gotten purposes but isn't the Alignment, they may scout it with a simple scout ship but maybe not take too many precautions. But if they got the intel that it was the Alignment's wormhole, they'd scout with a warship instead and very much try to stay hidden.

In the latter case, they'd try to stay there long enough to see a spider ship. If not that case, then the MAlign would get word that Felix is being scouted and not offer any evidence that this is their asset.

And as for tracking Spiders?

1) we have only seen them used in 1 op to date, and no where else, so it's not as if there is constant movement of spider ships, with the Ghosts reporting back on every movement or happening of the GA fleets. That is being done by the normal spy network with Streak drives.

2) the Mannerheim forces in Felix don't seem to be aware of them - the majority of the normal Mannerheim sailors aren't in the conspiracy, so there can't be too many weird things happening in Felix or else the normal sailor would know about the weird ships, with weird shapes and weird invisible drives going back and forth through the secret wormhole.

Good point. There is a backstory being told to the MSDF sailors, which is that Mannerheim needs to keep it quiet so they can acquire the rights to the system. But they aren't seeing ships transiting. I suppose the MAN agents in the MSDF know the schedule or control the sensor feeds or something so the transits of any spider ships can be hidden, but that can't be happening too often.

In fact, we don't know if Oyster Bay was launched through Felix. We have some rough information about Mannerheim because of Galton: we know Galton is 200 light-years from Mannerheim, and Galton is within a certain distance of Tasmania (where Filareta was stationed before launching Raging Justice) and Hole in the Wall. But that doesn't tell us its distance to Manticore and we definitely don't know the distance from Darius to the Haven Sector.

penny wrote:We are dealing with Alphas. If Felix is the front door to the secret lair, it will only be used sparingly. And there will never be a spider drive sent through Felix from Darius. Never. Until the opening phases of war! After Galton was discovered - indeed after the MA got wind of a leak - the MAN ordered their own version of a lockdown! At that point, there will only be one way transits from Felix to Darius. Upward translations are not visible.

I don't think Felix is the front door to the secret lair. Hyperspace is a better analogy for the front door: with the address, anyone can drop in and knock on the front door. The wormhole is more like a secret passage running underneath the neighbourhood: if you know it's there, you can move undetected, but it's also a narrow passage that doesn't allow large movement of troops and, as a funnel, can be easily defended.

So yes, I think the Onion has a plan if Felix is discovered. We even know what it is: Mannerheim claims it's been trying to acquire the rights for the past 15 T-years in secret so the price doesn't go up. Any freighters and couriers observed are claimed to be Mannerheim's (now the RF's). The two termini that we don't know the location of can probably be given as evidence of legitimate business: I wouldn't be surprised if there is a small colony being set up in one of them or if the Mannerheim merchants have been secretly using them to undercut the standard shipping somewhere.

If they play it right, they can make this seem like a "no big deal" so no one bothers to try to observe it to see who else may be using it.

Question: Can a drone burn through the collective wedges of the MSDF hiding any incoming arrivals? I seem to recall that is exactly what the RMN did at Beowulf with Tsang.

Are you talking about how Truman transited into Beowulf right under Tsang's nose? We must remember just how incompetent Tsang was. She was probably very far from the terminus, which is why she mistook superdreadnoughts for freighters. She didn't have recon drones of hers looking at the terminus, because she wasn't expecting the RMN to come out and meet her. She was so incompetent that she announced her plans to transit days ahead of time!

But if the drones were close enough and there were enough of them? I don't think you can hide ships under wedges, not completely. And the wedge shell needs to open at some point to let whoever transited leave, at which point the drones would get a good look. This manoeuvre would be a dead giveaway that they're trying to hide something.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Good point. There is a backstory being told to the MSDF sailors, which is that Mannerheim needs to keep it quiet so they can acquire the rights to the system. But they aren't seeing ships transiting. I suppose the MAN agents in the MSDF know the schedule or control the sensor feeds or something so the transits of any spider ships can be hidden, but that can't be happening too often.

Keep in mind that the MSDF is trying to make sure nobody pokes around Felix long enough to interested in it (or detect hints of its wormhole). But the people who'd be poking around if they got interested in the system would be ignorant of the wormhole so they'd almost certainly be investing the planets or asteroid belts -- mostly inside the hyper limit and then maybe around a few outer system planet.

So that's where it'd make sense to NSDF sailor to be keeping watch. But the terminus is probably light-hours from any of those -- which would be way too far for shipboard sensors to notice anybody transiting it.

So the MAlign might not need to take complicated precautions to avoid detection of Spider ships transiting -- just have enough control of patrol patters to ensure that none of the MSDF (or at least none that isn't entirely inside the onion) is anywhere near sensor range of the terminus.

tlb wrote:So you really see nothing strange in the Grand Alliance sending ships a very long distance to invade the area patrolled by a neutral system?

penny wrote:If their research has led them to the conclusion that the system contains a WH that is the route for criminal activity against the GA, then no?

What would you expect the GA to do in that case; accept abject pacifism? 'Nah, ain't nothing going on here.' And just swallow it hook, line and sinker?

tlb wrote:What research could that be, which did not also implicate Mannerheim, the system with the ships guarding Felix?

penny wrote:Guarding Felix or protecting Felix. The burden of proof is not on the defendant.

tlb wrote:This not a court of law. If the research says that Felix "is the route for criminal activity against the GA", then Mannerheim is going to be strongly encouraged to give the forces of the Grand Alliance everything that they have or know. Complete with inspection teams to encourage thoroughness. With overwhelming force in this situation it is easier to make an apology afterwards than bothering to ask permission.

penny wrote:That statement is valid in life, not simply and only in a court of law. It is simple and fair. If you accuse me of something -- better yet, if you come to my front door accusing me of something -- you had better have some proof. Simple, practical and fair; which is probably why it was adopted by a court of law.

Just how will that be accomplished, except on paper. Overwhelming force is not going to encourage an entity who thrives on secrecy to give away classified information that isn't exactly kept in a filing cabinet. So when the GA does not find anything and apologizes, then what?

We are talking about Mannerheim, NOT the Malign.

penny wrote:We must understand that the GA, certainly her Majesty, is not a bunch of criminals. Nor are they completely devoid of morals, scruples and values. If it is determined that Mannerheim has a secret WH, what right does the GA have to go poking around it? Does Haven have to allow transit anywhere near Refuge?

When it comes right down to it, these things will be handled through diplomatic channels, giving plenty of notice to the MA. Is it legal to drop off drones in a system?* If these drones are detected then how will the GA's government respond to the accusation?

At any rate, wars are usually the result of failed diplomacy, first, and not half-cocked half-baked missions.** The Dudley Dorights of the Manties will seek diplomacy first; which is a long drawn out string of red tape and bureaucracy giving Darius time to react.

* In a system where there is a WH that has already been claimed. Would that not appear as if the GA are possibly claim jumpers? (A term made famous in the era of the gold rush.)

** The Peeps at Basilisk Station notwithstanding

Depending on what the search uncovers it is NOT the case that an apology automatically follows, perhaps ultimatums follow instead.

You began by positing that the GA had evidence that Felix was being used for "criminal activity against the GA". So I think you need to recheck the sequence of events followed by Captain Aivars Terekhov leading up to the confrontation with Monica in Shadow of Saganami. There may have been innocent explanations for the ships, but he still destroyed them after an illegal search and then the Queen supported him.

The GA is going to be very interested when they discover that a wormhole in Felix leads to Torch. Very serious questions are going to be asked about the Harvest Joy.

tlb wrote:

tlb wrote:So you really see nothing strange in the Grand Alliance sending ships a very long distance to invade the area patrolled by a neutral system?

penny wrote:If their research has led them to the conclusion that the system contains a WH that is the route for criminal activity against the GA, then no?

What would you expect the GA to do in that case; accept abject pacifism? 'Nah, ain't nothing going on here.' And just swallow it hook, line and sinker?

tlb wrote:What research could that be, which did not also implicate Mannerheim, the system with the ships guarding Felix?

penny wrote:Guarding Felix or protecting Felix. The burden of proof is not on the defendant.

tlb wrote:This not a court of law. If the research says that Felix "is the route for criminal activity against the GA", then Mannerheim is going to be strongly encouraged to give the forces of the Grand Alliance everything that they have or know. Complete with inspection teams to encourage thoroughness. With overwhelming force in this situation it is easier to make an apology afterwards than bothering to ask permission.

penny wrote:That statement is valid in life, not simply and only in a court of law. It is simple and fair. If you accuse me of something -- better yet, if you come to my front door accusing me of something -- you had better have some proof. Simple, practical and fair; which is probably why it was adopted by a court of law.

Just how will that be accomplished, except on paper. Overwhelming force is not going to encourage an entity who thrives on secrecy to give away classified information that isn't exactly kept in a filing cabinet. So when the GA does not find anything and apologizes, then what?

We are talking about Mannerheim, NOT the Malign.

penny wrote:We must understand that the GA, certainly her Majesty, is not a bunch of criminals. Nor are they completely devoid of morals, scruples and values. If it is determined that Mannerheim has a secret WH, what right does the GA have to go poking around it? Does Haven have to allow transit anywhere near Refuge?

When it comes right down to it, these things will be handled through diplomatic channels, giving plenty of notice to the MA. Is it legal to drop off drones in a system?* If these drones are detected then how will the GA's government respond to the accusation?

At any rate, wars are usually the result of failed diplomacy, first, and not half-cocked half-baked missions.** The Dudley Dorights of the Manties will seek diplomacy first; which is a long drawn out string of red tape and bureaucracy giving Darius time to react.

* In a system where there is a WH that has already been claimed. Would that not appear as if the GA are possibly claim jumpers? (A term made famous in the era of the gold rush.)

** The Peeps at Basilisk Station notwithstanding

Depending on what the search uncovers it is NOT the case that an apology automatically follows, perhaps ultimatums follow instead.

Ultimatums, eh? At the end of the day, that is simply a big word for the Defense of Felix.

tlb wrote:You began by positing that the GA had evidence that Felix was being used for "criminal activity against the GA". So I think you need to recheck the sequence of events followed by Captain Aivars Terekhov leading up to the confrontation with Monica in Shadow of Saganami. There may have been innocent explanations for the ships, but he still destroyed them after an illegal search and then the Queen supported him.

Terekhov -- and his brothers and sisters too -- might would be in over his head here. He'd only get his ass blown out from under him with invisible spider ships that have been alerted that he is coming, the arrogant bastard. You do know that Terekhov was a hothead don't you? Hotheads will only die against an enemy they can not see. Against an enemy they don't even know is there. Against an enemy that has been watching you all along.

tlb wrote:The GA is going to be very interested when they discover that a wormhole in Felix leads to Torch. Very serious questions are going to be asked about the Harvest Joy.

How are they going to discover that? The only thing they can do is die like Harvest Joy. You can't go poking your head through a WH not knowing where it leads. Obviously Harvest Joy got what was coming to her. The only thing the GA can do is kick off the war it is not prepared for. The war of wars. The GA had better hope the MAN is also not prepared for it.

penny wrote:Ultimatums, eh? At the end of the day, that is simply a big word for the Defense of Felix.

Obviously you want to deflect everything away from Mannerheim and only want to talk about the Malign at Felix. I have no interest in that and have written what I wanted to express. To me, Felix has special interest ONLY because of the actions of Mannerheim.

PS: Captain Aivars Terekhov had the full support of the Queen, but then she is a bit of a hothead herself.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:Ultimatums, eh? At the end of the day, that is simply a big word for the Defense of Felix.

Obviously you want to deflect everything away from Mannerheim and only want to talk about the Malign at Felix. I have no interest in that and have written what I wanted to express. To me, Felix has special interest ONLY because of the actions of Mannerheim.

PS: Captain Aivars Terekhov had the full support of the Queen, but then she is a bit of a hothead herself.

This thread is not about the defense of Mannerheim. All bickering roads will lead to the defense of Felix. Felix is what is important. Mannerheim will be thrown under the bus if necessary. At the end of the day, it is no more important than Galton. Mannerheim will simply be another sacrificial lamb if need be.

But do ask yourself. Who destroyed Harvest Joy? And what kind of incisors do the MSDF really have to cut and tear prey with when an arrogant GA contingency arrives with its ... ultimatums?