[Spoilers] 1920 PD – Silesian Command

kzt wrote:

Theemile wrote:Prior to the Yawatta strike, The RMN had just built a "missile factory in a box" for Mk 23 E missiles and shipped it to the Andies, and after the strike supplied the blueprints to Beowulf for them to produce Mk 23 D and Es there. I would think an emphasis would be on more of these "factories in a box" to disperse production around the Empire.

No, the Andies were completely dependent on RMN supplied Mk-23 missiles per what David told me directly at Honorcon during a session.

The RMN sent a team with a full set of design & production documentation to IAN HQ after the disaster, not sure what the time from that to first missile production is. Based on the ability of Beowulf to build missiles I'd say not long unless plot.

The RMN shipped a packaged factory to Blackbird right before the attack at blackbird, and it was destroyed.

Exactly, + complete vulnerability in modern warfare of near stealthed + non stealthed missiles with near infinite range = why any of the side "small yards" should actually building gargantuan armored shells to build industry inside of which can also create a sidewall of some form or another.

Not high tech. In fact, very LOW tech. But needed.

There currently is no such thing as strategic depth nor even really tactical depth of defense. = Everything must be armored up the wazzoooo or must be dispersed everywhere.

kzt wrote:

Theemile wrote:Prior to the Yawatta strike, The RMN had just built a "missile factory in a box" for Mk 23 E missiles and shipped it to the Andies, and after the strike supplied the blueprints to Beowulf for them to produce Mk 23 D and Es there. I would think an emphasis would be on more of these "factories in a box" to disperse production around the Empire.

No, the Andies were completely dependent on RMN supplied Mk-23 missiles per what David told me directly at Honorcon during a session.

The RMN sent a team with a full set of design & production documentation to IAN HQ after the disaster, not sure what the time from that to first missile production is. Based on the ability of Beowulf to build missiles I'd say not long unless plot.

The RMN shipped a packaged factory to Blackbird right before the attack at blackbird, and it was destroyed.

Damn, I remembered the wrong destination...

However, they have the plans for the packaged factory that Beowulf could produce.

kzt wrote:

Theemile wrote:Prior to the Yawatta strike, The RMN had just built a "missile factory in a box" for Mk 23 E missiles and shipped it to the Andies, and after the strike supplied the blueprints to Beowulf for them to produce Mk 23 D and Es there. I would think an emphasis would be on more of these "factories in a box" to disperse production around the Empire.

No, the Andies were completely dependent on RMN supplied Mk-23 missiles per what David told me directly at Honorcon during a session.

The RMN sent a team with a full set of design & production documentation to IAN HQ after the disaster, not sure what the time from that to first missile production is. Based on the ability of Beowulf to build missiles I'd say not long unless plot.

The RMN shipped a packaged factory to Blackbird right before the attack at blackbird, and it was destroyed.

Damn, I remembered the wrong destination... That's right, they were building the Andy factory during the strike.

However, they have the plans for the packaged factory that Beowulf could produce.

During "Silesian Command," the situation was that the war with Haven had broken out, there was an unease with the SL but no Lacoön yet, so the MMM was still boldly going where everyone used to go. Lacoön One is only declared after the Battle of Spindle, which is after the cessation of hostilities with Haven. Also after the Yawata Strike.

I'll grant you that after Lacoön One, the MMM does have idle capacity, because new traffic with Haven, Talbott, and Silesia can't replace the full SL traffic. But remember that there's more to the Galaxy than the SL and Haven Sectors: Lacoön did not require Manticore-flagged ships to withdraw from neutral or other friendly space, only the League. Moreover, already at Lacoön One were Manticore-controlled termini closed to SL traffic, so that meant that there was some new demand to replace traffic that got blocked. And that was worse with Two, because even further SL traffic was blocked.

We don't know how many termini the GA managed to actually grab once Lacoön Two was declared. Moreover, there's a large delay between those actions and the hiring of new freight companies: the customers affected must know they're affected and must make new business deals. The war with the League ended less than one year after the Battle of Spindle.

This is all to say there were what, 10 months of surplus shipping capacity in the MMM. Sarnow's decisions during "Silesian Command" would have happened earlier than that. Those decisions would most likely have been to turn those shipyards civilian and let them build merchant hulls. How long does it take to build an 8-million-tonne freighter? We know it takes the RMN 24 months for a 9-million-tonne SD, but warships are much more complex beasts, and yet the shipyards in the MBS were also much more advanced than anything that Silesia could boast. So I'd say for 18 to 36 months, all the slips in Silesia would have been busy, either with the scrapping of the SCN, or with building new merchant ships.

There's also no time in which there's overcapacity of ship building: Case Lacoön is only declared after the Yawata Strike, so by the time the ships come home with no contract with the SL, the shipyards in the MBS are gone (well, the RMN ones are; we don't know how much of Hauptman Cartel and their providers was affected).

Therefore, I think Sarnow's decisions above would have been in 1920-1921 and gone unchanged during 1922.

It’s like Australia deciding to not trade with North America, China, Japan and the rest of Asia, Europe, and Brazil. It takes a lot of Bolivias and Russias to make up for the US, Japan and EU. I suspect it takes several times more than exists.

So you can send your 8 million ton shop to North Nowhere 17 times a year instead of once every two years, but I doubt you’ll make money.

kzt wrote:It’s like Australia deciding to not trade with North America, China, Japan and the rest of Asia, Europe, and Brazil. It takes a lot of Bolivias and Russias to make up for the US, Japan and EU. I suspect it takes several times more than exists.

So you can send your 8 million ton shop to North Nowhere 17 times a year instead of once every two years, but I doubt you’ll make money.

I have to wonder how much the SL actually produces compared to consumes. Or how large of a Percentage SL is compared to Verge, protectorates, shell. Off hand I'd say it produces little and imports much based on turning thousands of external worlds into slave production zones and number of SL ships. It makes zero sense to have 10,000+++ of small fry ships if they are not patrolling thousands upon thousands of planets where the actual majority of humanity is living.

MWHJ, if we compare to earth shipping according to DW is Suez+Panama+Malacca+Hormuz+North Sea. This is an extraordinary claim. Those canals/straights/seaways account for ~100% of all tonnage shipped annually. Total is greater than 100% by the way as Hormuz, Suez, and Malacca/Sunda straights often overlap. This says that nearly ALL SL trade goes through the MWHJ in one way or another. Yes...

Since we know where the MWHJ exits are and only one in SL space, this says there has to be a whole HOST of other WHJ which exit near the MWHJ(Idaho) and at Hennessey/Phoenix region going to consuming regions as we are told there are only 2! WHJ in SL space, Beowulf and (mind fart forgot name) of 2nd termini.

It makes ZERO sense for vast majority of traffic to go through MWHJ if there are near zero points of entry into said markets to cut time, or Beowulf termini junction is hopping like mad 24/7/365... and then we have to ask... WHERE are they going... as a SINGLE point or even 2 points does not a 3d network make for cutting off months of transport time.

Anyways. Bed is calling.

The SL has the vast majority of the total human population and the systems with modern industrial technology. They use equipment very similar to what Beowulf and Manticore use to produce stuff. The SL core imports taw materials and exports high value and/or high tech finished goods. Which means the vast majority of the verge produces raw materials and imports finished goods, just like every mercantilist would want.

So, unless the 3 billion people in the star kingdom can use the taw materials that supplied something over three trillion people in the SL, there isn’t a lot to trade on most verge worlds. Manticore doesn’t need the 5 billion tons of iron ore that the SL wants a year, they get plenty of iron from their asteroid mines.

kzt wrote:The SL has the vast majority of the total human population and the systems with modern industrial technology. They use equipment very similar to what Beowulf and Manticore use to produce stuff. The SL core imports taw materials and exports high value and/or high tech finished goods. Which means the vast majority of the verge produces raw materials and imports finished goods, just like every mercantilist would want.

So, unless the 3 billion people in the star kingdom can use the taw materials that supplied something over three trillion people in the SL, there isn’t a lot to trade on most verge worlds. Manticore doesn’t need the 5 billion tons of iron ore that the SL wants a year, they get plenty of iron from their asteroid mines.

I agree, the economy of the SL cannot be discounted. It must be huge, an industrial power-house and making up with numbers where they lacked in quality compared to the old SKM. So I have no doubt that the impact of Lacoön One would have had a massive economic downturn. The economic boon caused by the new Haven and Talbott Sector markets (plus Madras and others newly reachable through the Lynx Terminus) cannot replace that.

However, we have to take that with a grain of salt. We are indeed told that some two thirds of all League shipping went on a Manticore-flagged hull for at least a part of its journey. Lacoön One only affected Manticore ships in League space, not this totality. All the shipping that included transshipping to a Manticore hull outside of League space should continue undisturbed. And shipping that required going into the League can adopt this mode of transport, which does indeed cause higher costs for the clients and lower revenues for both shippers (definitely less for Manticore tax base), but it still allows Manticore ships to be used. They'll save some on having shorter trips.

Then there's the question of how much trade the League represented for the MMM. The answer has to be that it was a huge percentage, but the economics here are wonky. The astrography that we know of wormholes simply can't account for the "two thirds" above, because the transit times through the MWHJ would make no sense for the vast majority of the League.

There are two other mitigating factors I mentioned above: first, it's timing. Lacoön One was declared in February 1922, but the war ended in January 1923, at which point I imagine Case Lacoön was lifted. The time it takes for a message to get to a ship is the time it takes for another ship to rendezvous with that first one. The scenes in the books happen almost immediately after, but that can't be the case for almost any ship, and definitely not for the majority. That time is greatest for a ship that is still outbound; it might take as much as three quarters of the trip (half way back) until the message catches up. So I wouldn't be surprised if ships didn't get to find out that they shouldn't go to the League until six months after Lacoön One was declared, and for the ships bound from a League port to a non-League one, it simply didn't matter.

The second was the escalation of hostilities, with Lacoön Two and the SLN TUFT. Lacoön Two made League shipping nearly impossible. While One was still in effect, MMM ships couldn't trade with League worlds as either endpoint, but they would take up contracts with third parties where SL shipping like Kolokainos used to. Some of that SL shipping was also reduced by the SLN's Taken Up From Trade of commandeering freighters for military purposes. This again has a timing component, but given the centralised nature of the SLN and how the Core worlds are reasonably close to each other, it would have gone further and faster than Lacoön One did to the MMM.

In any event, that is just background to answering the original question. As much as Lacoön One did affect the MMM and was part of the question, I think the answer to it doesn't change with Lacoön.

Sarnow's decisions would have been made in early 1920, after he got to Silesia, as the war with Haven was still escalating, and Talbott was still going through its Constitutional Convention process. That means the time the Hexapuma is going around in the sector there to put out fires (caused by the Alignment, via Firebrand), but there's no League involvement yet. The Battle of Monica doesn't happen until February 1921, with word of it getting to Manticore one month later and leading Prichart to propose the peace summit, not more war.

So all the decisions Sarnow made for the Silesian shipyards were two years old by the time Lacoön happened. The MMM ships that came back wouldn't flood the market there until late 1922. All those build slips should be happily busy building new ships that the 1920 economic projections would have said were needed. And if Manticore economic policy in Silesia was similar to Talbott, then most of the owners were also local, so they wouldn't be affected (yet) by the problems their peers in the old SKM were facing. Those that were partnerships may have found themselves in financial trouble, with some of them dissolved because the old SKM counterpart needing cash to fund their operations, but the ships themselves should continue to get build. And if not, they are tying up a build slip, so no destroyer or frigate can be built there.

One more thing: the original war-time taxes from the 1905 war had never been repealed yet in the old SKM. By the time of Operation Thunderbolt, the High Ridge government must have been awash in cash, which is why they were (corruptly) funding shiny but often useless projects. No doubt a great deal of this was used to fund the RMN rebuild and finish the Python Lump, but we do know that the Crown was investing in Talbott, so I expect that there were generous Crown loans in Silesia too. FY 292 AL must have run a deficit.

In the short run- 1922-23- the effects of Lacoon One were hammering the SL on lack of merchant hulls to move goods.
For every MMM ship that was required to return to SEM space and was to have carried cargo between (or too or from) SL systems, one of two things was going to happen.
One: the shippers would have had to find a merchant ship that had space available going it -if not the same sets of route stops, then some combination that would eventually deliver their goods- to the buyers. Complicated when so many merchant ships were now out of the mix.
Two: the shippers would have to HOLD the goods at whatever system they were last delivery to pending finding another means of transport.

Those SL flagged ships that were turned away from SEM wormholes with Lacoon Two were all also looking at massive disruption of delivery times, particularly if they were heading "back" in the direction of the SL and were going to have to make most of that trip in hyper rather than use the Junction.
So much comes into play in both cases and much of it deals with penalties for lack of performance on either the delivery (as allowed for in shipping contracts and/or purchase contracts for the goods. Either way (whenever the goods may get delivered) the volume of transport slows down and the economy is effected. It has been mentioned that a lot of MMM were going to default on loan payments etc which could have put them out of business. The same thing is going to happen to the involved 1) manufactures, 2 )wholesalers, 3) shipping companies, 4) the companies who had ordered the goods and who now don't have the either the product to sell or can't make their own commitments.
Even shipping companies like Kolokainos are going to be caught in this because they are going to have to find replacements for the MMM ships they lease/hire as carriers. Yes, they COULD swap out a MMM ship heading outbound -out side of the SL- for a non-MMM cargo ship heading in and deal with the problem that way but there is timing and various contractual issues.
The TUFT solution to SLN's difficulties is also in-play with logistics of wet Navies on present day Earth. There are contracts for essentially the TUFT alternative which will have exactly the same effect. That does also include the possibility that the TUFT ships will not only be out of commercial service for months to years but also that they will be damaged or destroyed in military engagements. Every TUFT ship would have had to essentially drop commercial cargos at some warehouse/transfer station for some duration of storage until new transport could be arranged. Think if this as a boatload of grit dumped into the gears of industry and commerce.

Even if every shipping company in the SL (and many outside the SL) imediaitaly placed orders for new commercial transports - to whatever capacity was then available in the SL and other commericial shipyards- it would take probably at least a year to deliver the 1st ships even if they use current "standard" cargo designs.

I don't recall any emergency dropping of cargos to warehousing by MMM ships in the books but that could have been done. Same thing applies- the merchandise would wait (and expensed mount for storage) till an alternative transport can be found.

It is possible that MMM ships could have gotten to Beowulf and found non-MMM shipping with available cargo space (won't get into what that would have cost somebody) BUT that they then headed "away" from SL space via hyper to shift where they would start looking for new business/ loads. How likely (it is not mentioned, not germane to plot) that the SLN would have attempted to set up commerce interdiction outside Beowulf's and the Sigma Draconis Terminus to intercept MMM? That would have created a bad situation given the know reaction of RMN to commerce raiding or siezing against MMM.

Wonderful situation.