Attacking Darius:

penny wrote:FYI. It is speculated in some scientific circles that a black hole emerges in another universe. The whole conservation of mass and energy thing.

If the mass went somewhere, it wouldn't be conserved. Black holes have mass we can measure. Information, however, is something different. We have no clue what happens to information that falls into a black hole.

Anyway, you're talking about the maximally-extended Penrose diagrams. See this PBS Space Time video. It's very loopy (pun intended).

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:FYI. It is speculated in some scientific circles that a black hole emerges in another universe. The whole conservation of mass and energy thing.

If the mass went somewhere, it wouldn't be conserved. Black holes have mass we can measure. Information, however, is something different. We have no clue what happens to information that falls into a black hole.

Anyway, you're talking about the maximally-extended Penrose diagrams. See this PBS Space Time video. It's very loopy (pun intended).

It would be conserved if the 'many universes theory' of creation is true. At the macro level with respect to creation.

penny wrote:It would be conserved if the 'many universes theory' of creation is true. At the macro level with respect to creation.

The point is that we can still measure the mass in this universe. So unless we're measuring the whole pocket universe in there, it didn't go to another universe.

I N T A D A FR E



This passage found in TEiF contains the entire gist of this thread on steroids.

TEiF wrote:"I bring this up because it illustrates a point we need to keep very clearly in mind," she continued with a very wintry smile. "Commodore Tremaine may have provided us with a lot of data on the positions and energy signatures of El Dorado's orbital platforms, and we may have what we believe are good counts on their mobile units, but all of you know we have no intelligence at all on these people's actual hardware. The Cataphract and the graserhead missiles we've already encountered are clear empirical proof that they have weapons none of us have ever faced in combat, however, and Commodore Tremaine's drones detected grav pulses indicating El Dorado has a substantially more sophisticated FTL com capability than the Solarian League had, so at the very least, their doctrine for their missile pods almost always has to be more sophisticated than the League's was.

"We've spent the last month refining our plans for this operation, but we've known from the outset that our ability to project threats is suspect. I intend to do everything we can to expand and update our current data files after after we make our alpha translation and begin openly deploying recon drones, but electronic intelligence and visual observation will be able to tell us only so much. We won't be able to peek inside their missiles or know how good their active defenses are until one side or the other opens fire.

"I wish we could expect the other side to be equally ignorant about our capabilities, but we know they had agents—highly placed, in some cases—inside of our own militaries. We believe we've closed down those high-level conduits, but I don't believe anyone in this compartment is foolish enough to assume they don't continue to have penetration at lower levels.

snip

...but unlike the Solarian League, there's no way in the galaxy that these people haven't moved heaven and earth to stay abreast of our doctrine and deployed weapons.

"That means they've had a huge advantage in terms of formulating tactics against the day they might have to defend their Bolthole, so expect me to approach this operation with caution.

Honor's sentiment in this passage still applies. Honor just doesn't know how much it applies. The GA has not found the Alignment's Bolthole. And the passage expresses the assessment I made way upstream that electronic surveillance and visual observation can only tell the GA so much. And... Honor made that statement while being completely ignorant of invisible weapons, infrastructure; and warships.

Some of you seemed to be expecting "a walk in the park?" On second thought, you might be right. There might not be any ships left to do anything but walk.

penny wrote:Honor's sentiment in this passage still applies. Honor just doesn't know how much it applies. The GA has not found the Alignment's Bolthole.

Well, they've found one of two. They just didn't know at the time of that passage that there were two, and it's still unclear whether they've realised that by now.

And the passage expresses the assessment I made way upstream that electronic surveillance and visual observation can only tell the GA so much. And... Honor made that statement while being completely ignorant of invisible weapons, infrastructure; and warships.

Some of you seemed to be expecting "a walk in the park?" On second thought, you might be right. There might not be any ships left to do anything but walk.

Recognising her own ignorance is the first step in addressing it. Compare that to Filareta's discussion of the RMN hardware before leaving Tasmania, when he said that "there must have been some mistake, their superdreadnoughts can't be faster than our destroyers." At no point was she flippant about her chances, and she did everything she could to mitigate the possible advantages the enemy would have. Any CO in her position had to do the same and assume the worst of the enemy, with at least equal capabilities.

That's a different assessment that we the readers can make, because we have data that the in-universe characters don't. That includes the fact that this is the Honorverse in the first place and we know the good guys will win, even if we know David isn't shy about making difficult to do so (though not at George R. R. Martin's levels). We know what the Alignment has and currently lacks because they've told us, albeit with gaps large enough to drive a superdreadnought through. We also know the quality of the COs on both sides and which one has the surplus of arrogance.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:Honor's sentiment in this passage still applies. Honor just doesn't know how much it applies. The GA has not found the Alignment's Bolthole.

Well, they've found one of two. They just didn't know at the time of that passage that there were two, and it's still unclear whether they've realised that by now.

They found the pansies. The scapegoats. And Honor got her undies tore attacking an "unarmed" system. Oh yes they were! Galton was unarmed! Not literally. But relatively; comparatively. Considering that Darius held back almost all of its toys, thus tactics. Talk about fighting a foe at the top of the food chain with one arm tied behind your back with only a few bullets at your disposal. Galton was pinned down fighting with low ammo from the outset. And the GA was circling the wagons.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:And the passage expresses the assessment I made way upstream that electronic surveillance and visual observation can only tell the GA so much. And... Honor made that statement while being completely ignorant of invisible weapons, infrastructure; and warships.

Some of you seemed to be expecting "a walk in the park?" On second thought, you might be right. There might not be any ships left to do anything but walk.

Recognising her own ignorance is the first step in addressing it. Compare that to Filareta's discussion of the RMN hardware before leaving Tasmania, when he said that "there must have been some mistake, their superdreadnoughts can't be faster than our destroyers." At no point was she flippant about her chances, and she did everything she could to mitigate the possible advantages the enemy would have. Any CO in her position had to do the same and assume the worst of the enemy, with at least equal capabilities.

In this case, she doesn't recognize her own ignorance. What's worse, she doesn't recognize that her ignorance runs bone deep, throughout the entire GA. There are more holes in the GA's intel than there were in the SLN's intel when they attacked the GA. And the holes are just as major. If not more.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:That's a different assessment that we the readers can make, because we have data that the in-universe characters don't. That includes the fact that this is the Honorverse in the first place and we know the good guys will win, even if we know David isn't shy about making difficult to do so (though not at George R. R. Martin's levels). We know what the Alignment has and currently lacks because they've told us, albeit with gaps large enough to drive a superdreadnought through. We also know the quality of the COs on both sides and which one has the surplus of arrogance.

Oh, I agree that the good guys will win the war. But they sure as hell are going to lose a lot of the battles before they get it right. There is no way I will ever believe that their first foray into Darius, their maiden voyage into the unknown, will be successful. Nope.

They'll have to come back another day after they've dusted themselves off and shed that infectious SL institutional arrogance.

Anyways, that passage summed it all up. How do you prepare for a foe that knows everything about you, your weapons and ability, but you hardly know anything about either of theirs? Plus! They've had eons formulating their tactics and sharpening their claws.

Like I said, "A Home System that makes the perimeter that the MBS has established look like a Boy Scout Camp." Well, I could have said Girl Scout Camp.

penny wrote:They found the pansies. The scapegoats. And Honor got her undies tore attacking an "unarmed" system. Oh yes they were! Galton was unarmed! Not literally. But relatively; comparatively. Considering that Darius held back almost all of its toys, thus tactics. Talk about fighting a foe at the top of the food chain with one arm tied behind your back with only a few bullets at your disposal. Galton was pinned down fighting with low ammo from the outset. And the GA was circling the wagons.

Indeed the best toys were withheld from them, because Galton at that point was deemed to be expendable for the sake of Darius. But we don't know how well-defended Darius will be yet. There's still the possibility it had been meant to be a paradise, thus had little military presence until relatively recently. We don't know.

But please understand the relative strengths: Galton was the single best-defended system in the entire Galaxy, outside of the GA capital systems themselves and maybe a handful, other regional capitals in the GA. At this point in the history, I don't think there's anything that the MAlign could have given Galton that would have prevented the GF from winning: Gail's analysis was right that the GF could simply rearm and come back. The MAlign and the MAN did not have enough stealth weapons at this point. Plus, you can't win a war standing on defence.

In this case, she doesn't recognize her own ignorance. What's worse, she doesn't recognize that her ignorance runs bone deep, throughout the entire GA. There are more holes in the GA's intel than there were in the SLN's intel when they attacked the GA. And the holes are just as major. If not more.

Sorry, my reading is the exact opposite. And I disagree that the holes are bigger than the SLN's too, but that's actually irrelevant and subjective. I do agree that the holes are there.

The passage to me is very clear that she recognises that she has blind spots and that she lacks intel. The problem is that she and everyone else in the GF don't know what they don't know. We do and can make some assessments (and disagree), but they don't. They can only base their plans and suppositions on the data they have at hand and some extrapolations or educated guesses. And in the passage she was saying that the plan included getting more intel as soon as they crossed the hyperwall, before committing to any particular tactic. That's the best she could do at that time.

Oh, I agree that the good guys will win the war. But they sure as hell are going to lose a lot of the battles before they get it right. There is no way I will ever believe that their first foray into Darius, their maiden voyage into the unknown, will be successful. Nope.

Maybe. I don't actually think they will send a fleet to Darius at all before the final and successful battle. I believe the conflicts will happen all elsewhere, and Darius will be infiltrated by other means first. That would mean they'd get intel out of Darius too.

Anyways, that passage summed it all up. How do you prepare for a foe that knows everything about you, your weapons and ability, but you hardly know anything about either of theirs? Plus! They've had eons formulating their tactics and sharpening their claws.

You do the best you can.

And besides, the MAlign does not know everything, because their infiltration at the high levels has stopped. By the time those climatic battles happen, new techniques and technology will have been developed. As for the MAN's own tactics, they also haven't had a lot of time to sharpen them, because they're fielding completely new ship types and technology that no one has had a chance to sharpen before. They have definitely not had eons: they've had at most a decade.

The MAN has handicapped itself and painted itself into a corner. They just don't realise it yet (q.v. surplus of arrogance).

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:They found the pansies. The scapegoats. And Honor got her undies tore attacking an "unarmed" system. Oh yes they were! Galton was unarmed! Not literally. But relatively; comparatively. Considering that Darius held back almost all of its toys, thus tactics. Talk about fighting a foe at the top of the food chain with one arm tied behind your back with only a few bullets at your disposal. Galton was pinned down fighting with low ammo from the outset. And the GA was circling the wagons.

Indeed the best toys were withheld from them, because Galton at that point was deemed to be expendable for the sake of Darius. But we don't know how well-defended Darius will be yet. There's still the possibility it had been meant to be a paradise, thus had little military presence until relatively recently. We don't know.

Wha—? You still don't believe do you? Even after that passage. Let me reiterate. Darius' defenses will make the MBS look like a Boy Scout Camp.

It is a paradise by design. Being hidden ensures that enemies don't come acallin'. But even a paradise must be protected to ensure that it remains a paradise. An Alpha simply wouldn't make that sort of strategic error.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:But please understand the relative strengths: Galton was the single best-defended system in the entire Galaxy, outside of the GA capital systems themselves and maybe a handful, other regional capitals in the GA.

Yes it was. I agree. The SLN certainly couldn't have taken Galton. But do consider that Galton still retained that distinction after being brutally raped; even much worse than Fearless was raped of her armament. Galton was gang raped. Darius' virginity and hymen will still be intact.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:At this point in the history, I don't think there's anything that the MAlign could have given Galton that would have prevented the GF from winning: Gail's analysis was right that the GF could simply rearm and come back. The MAlign and the MAN did not have enough stealth weapons at this point. Plus, you can't win a war standing on defence.

Winning can be such a misleading term. Honor could have died. The GA would have taken heavy losses if they were being forced to rearm against an appropriate arm of the MAlign. Galton didn't even have enough missiles as any "heavily-defended" system would have. That won't apply to Darius. Galton's toys, missiles, strategy and tactics were torpedoed before the battle even began. The GA was spared any of the MAlign's unprecedented tactics which even Honor herself alludes to.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:In this case, she doesn't recognize her own ignorance. What's worse, she doesn't recognize that her ignorance runs bone deep, throughout the entire GA. There are more holes in the GA's intel than there were in the SLN's intel when they attacked the GA. And the holes are just as major. If not more.

Sorry, my reading is the exact opposite. And I disagree that the holes are bigger than the SLN's too, but that's actually irrelevant and subjective. I do agree that the holes are there.

The passage to me is very clear that she recognises that she has blind spots and that she lacks intel. The problem is that she and everyone else in the GF don't know what they don't know. We do and can make some assessments (and disagree), but they don't. They can only base their plans and suppositions on the data they have at hand and some extrapolations or educated guesses. And in the passage she was saying that the plan included getting more intel as soon as they crossed the hyperwall, before committing to any particular tactic. That's the best she could do at that time.

I base that statement on the fact that even the SLN knew about the GA's weapons. They even had good intel on their weapons. They just chose not to put any credence into the reports.

The GA doesn't even know Spider drive warships exist and how effective they will be, or the unprecedented tactics they will afford. Glaring holes you can drive a fleet through. A fleet of LDs!

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:Oh, I agree that the good guys will win the war. But they sure as hell are going to lose a lot of the battles before they get it right. There is no way I will ever believe that their first foray into Darius, their maiden voyage into the unknown, will be successful. Nope.

Maybe. I don't actually think they will send a fleet to Darius at all before the final and successful battle. I believe the conflicts will happen all elsewhere, and Darius will be infiltrated by other means first. That would mean they'd get intel out of Darius too.

You might be right there. Indeed I hope you are. The MAlign cannot afford to give up the initiative and allow the much bigger GA to attack first. The MA will attrit first and go for a knockout blow with the first truly possible short victorious war. Those battles will give the GA the experience they need and a good look at the MAlign's true capabilities. As it stands, it would be too unrealistic for the GA to go skipping into Darius and hope to win.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:Anyways, that passage summed it all up. How do you prepare for a foe that knows everything about you, your weapons and ability, but you hardly know anything about either of theirs? Plus! They've had eons formulating their tactics and sharpening their claws.

You do the best you can.

And besides, the MAlign does not know everything, because their infiltration at the high levels has stopped. By the time those climatic battles happen, new techniques and technology will have been developed. As for the MAN's own tactics, they also haven't had a lot of time to sharpen them, because they're fielding completely new ship types and technology that no one has had a chance to sharpen before. They have definitely not had eons: they've had at most a decade.

The MAN has handicapped itself and painted itself into a corner. They just don't realise it yet (q.v. surplus of arrogance).

I agree. They will simply have to do the best they can. Which won't be even close to good enough during the first confrontations. Some very unlucky officers will get their asses blown out from under them to get Shannon and Sonja the intel they need to get the right toys to Honor.

They have had eons to contemplate technology that allows them to sidestep traditional weaponry and warships. They have had long enough to formulate their own tactics and defense of Darius, as Honor correctly states in that passage.

Add in the fact that there is a huge hawking glaring hole regarding the fact that the LDs exist. Also add in the fact that surprise is a force multiplier. Then add in the fact that the GA has been infected by the SLN's institutional arrogance (reflected by most posters on the subject) and you have a recipe for disaster.


Late edit: BTW, what is this handicap and corner you say they have painted themselves into? I just don't see it.

penny wrote:Wha—? You still don't believe do you? Even after that passage. Let me reiterate. Darius' defenses will make the MBS look like a Boy Scout Camp.

It is a paradise by design. Being hidden ensures that enemies don't come acallin'. But even a paradise must be protected to ensure that it remains a paradise. An Alpha simply wouldn't make that sort of strategic error.

I do believe it won't be as well-defended as the MBS or the other GA capitals. I don't even believe it will be as well-defended as Galton was. It will have a box of nasty surprises and the MAN will fight dirty, but in terms of military defences, it will be less.

I am basing that on the fact that they weren't a militaristic system, so they didn't build the defences up nearly as much as Galton did. They were relying on being hidden by the wormhole junction. And the main issue is the time it took for them to course-correct that.

Yes they were. I agree. The SLN certainly couldn't have taken Galton. But do consider that Galton still retained that distinction after being brutally raped; even much worse than Fearless was raped of her armament. Galton was gang raped. Darius' virginity and hymen will still be intact.

Metaphors aside, I agree.

But that doesn't mean Darius can be much stronger. Let's assume that Darius is indeed better defended than Galton was, because after all it would have access to the same technology plus more. I'm waving aside my objection to the fact that their construction started late for this. Galton fell because nothing could stop the Grand Fleet with 250 capital ships. Honor brought a massive overkill to take on Galton. She brought reloads to continue fighting for as long as necessary. And she could go home and rearm. No amount of extra weapons that Darius could have allowed Galton would have prevented this.

So can Darius prepare something that can hold the GF off? I don't think so. Nasty surprises, as I said above, sure. Painful losses, sure. But it won't stop the GF. Darius will fall on the first visit, the the GF being victorious in space. See another reason below.

This speculation is contingent on the time between now and this fight being no more than 10 T-years.

Winning can be such a misleading term. Honor could have died. The GA would have taken heavy losses if they were being forced to rearm against an appropriate arm of the MAlign. Galton didn't even have enough missiles as any "heavily-defended" system would have. That won't apply to Darius. Galton's toys, missiles, strategy and tactics were torpedoed before the battle even began. The GA was spared any of the MAlign's unprecedented tactics which even Honor herself alludes to.

I disagree: there was no amount of extra toys that the MAN could have allowed Galton that would have prevented the GF winning. We know what the MAN could have given the Galton Navy and we know it wouldn't have been enough. Where are you getting that they didn't have as many missiles as a heavily-defended system should have had? The problem here is that those Cataphracts didn't have the range to attack the GF, that was staying something like 200 million km away. No amount of them would have saved the system.

Ninurta missiles would have been better than Cataphract, but those can't be as accurate as Apollo at that range. Graser torpedoes would be a nasty surprise, but we've seen the Hasta III were detected by their bowshocks, so there's a good chance that torpedoes would have likewise been detected.

The one thing that could have made Honor go away and come back would have been a massive overkill in number of Leonard Detweiler-class ships, but the MAN doesn't have those yet so they couldn't have given them to Galton even if they wanted to! I'm arguing they won't even have enough of them when Darius falls.

I base that statement on the fact that even the SLN knew about the GA's weapons. They even had good intel on their weapons. They just chose not to put any credence into the reports.

The GA doesn't even know Spider drive warships exist and how effective they will be, or the unprecedented tactics they will afford. Glaring holes you can drive a fleet through. A fleet of LDs!

That's a fair argument, but doesn't change my conclusion. The SLN was incompetent and ignored intel they had and could have had. That doesn't apply to the GA intel services.

They know some things exist and they have little data on. That includes the existence of the spider drive and possible existence of spider-drive ships. They know that the MAN has come up with an unprecedented 3-second-firing graser. And they know the stealth is pretty good.

What they don't know is how effective those weapons are in battle. They don't know for how long they have been in construction, though Adm. White Haven's argument that the Yawata Strike / Oyster Bay was executed on a shoestring is a good hypothesis (that happens to be accurate). They don't know what the industrial power of the hidey-hole is (we don't either). And they don't know what other surprises the MAN may have in reserve.

We have more data. I am speculating that the MAN won't have the time to build a sufficient fleet of LDs before it's taken out.

You might be right there. Indeed I hope you are. The MAlign cannot afford to give up the initiative and allow the much bigger GA to attack first. The MA will attrit first and go for a knockout blow with the first truly possible short victorious war. Those battles will give the GA the experience they need and a good look at the MAlign's true capabilities. As it stands, it would be too unrealistic for the GA to go skipping into Darius and hope to win.

Add to that the fact that the MAN needs the experience too, even more than the GA navies. The GA navies already have it, just not against MAN hardware. The MAN has none and their hardware has never been tested in battle at all.

As for the infiltration of Darius and getting intel out, I want to point out that this is required for the story to even move along. Darius is at the far end of a wormhole, and wormholes can't be assaulted. That means any battle in Darius requires that the GA have found its galactic coordinates in the first place, which will very likely require that someone smuggle information out.

And if there is an active resistance and fifth column working on Darius, then the moment that GF crosses the alpha wall, this rebellion will begin striking too and degrading the MAN command and control.

They have had eons to contemplate technology to sidestep traditional weaponry and warships. They have had long enough to formulate their own tactics and defense of Darius, as Honor correctly states in that passage.

Contemplating technology you don't have is science fiction. You fight wars with the weapons you have, not the weapons you wish you had.

Yes, Galton and Darius defenders did study the GA weapons and try to come up with counters. They haven't had eons to study Apollo missiles, because those have only existed for a few T-years. And they haven't had eons to use their own spider-driven assets. Is that long enough? I don't think so. They have and will again come up short.

Add in the fact that there is a huge hawking glaring hole regarding the fact that the LDs exist. Also add in the fact that surprise is a force multiplier. Then add in the fact that the GA has been infected by the SLN's institutional arrogance (reflected by most posters on the subject) and you have a recipe for disaster.

I remain skeptical on that arrogance argument. It rests on the fact that we don't think Honor did enough to protect against the graser torpedoes and other possible spider-drive assets in Galton. But that all rests on lack of data: we don't know all she did, only those bits that RFC and Erik thought important to tell us.

penny wrote:The GA doesn't even know Spider drive warships exist and how effective they will be, or the unprecedented tactics they will afford. Glaring holes you can drive a fleet through. A fleet of LDs!

The GA would be idiots not to think a spider drive warship existed.

In A Rising Thunder Elizabeth and Honor are talking about how what Simões told of them "what he does know about the ‘spider drive’ dovetails entirely too neatly with what happened to us" -- presumably referring to the Yawata Strike. Are you proposing that they think the strike was carried out by non-warship spider equipped vessels?

Heck, later in that book we have Benjamin and Albrecht discussing how the GA has been busying telling everyone who'll listen about "virus-based nanotech assassinations, the streak drive, and the spider drive, and they’re naming names about something called ‘the Mesan Alignment.’"

While I don't think there's text of the GA discussion warships with spider drives; they know spider drive exist, they know it's super stealthy, and they believe (rightly) it was used in the Oyster Bay attacks. That all adds up (baring terminal stupidity) to them being aware that the MAlign has spider drive warships.

Now they don't (as far as we know) specifically know about the Lenny Dets; nor do they likely have much if any detail on the design or specific capabilities of the Ghosts and Sharks used in OB. But the mere existence of warships built around this spider drive won't be a surprise to them. (And based on what they know of the drive's stealth, and whatever else about it Simões could tell them they'll have people attempting to come up with effective tactics -- and others working to counter such tactics. They've still significant unknowns about the total capabilities -- and they likely won't think up quite the same tactics that the MAlign will; but it won't be because they're ignorant of the broad outline of the threat. (And they might even come up with one or two tactics that are better than what the Malign thinks up )