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Why were they so foolish?

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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Theemile   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:40 am

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Duckk wrote:Your conditions are incorrect. Again, transiting the junction was not the plan. Reread chapter 25 from ART:
“Admittedly, it never occurred to me Beowulf might be so far gone as to actually invite Manty wallers through into Beowulf space to threaten the League Navy,” Kolokoltsov conceded. “On the other hand, I never expected Admiral Tsang to be so frigging stupid as to actually try to fight her way through when Beowulf told her no, either!” It was his turn to shake his head, his expression disgusted. “She was supposed to back off ‘in deference to Beowulf’s expressed wishes’ — to let the Beowulfers stand on their ‘constitutional rights’ so we got the credit for showing restraint in the face of their irrationality!”


It is implied that Rajampet gave secret orders to force a military confrontation with Beowulf as part of the Alignment's plan, but the one officially approved by the Mandarins was simply one of posturing.


I had always read that as Tsang's orders were "If Beowulf brings a fight, break off" not "You arn't supposed to ACTUALLY go through the terminus." She seemed surprised to actually see the Beowulf wall there when she started the move from the space anchorage. (and totally flabbergasted to see the RMN wall)

“I suppose you’d better go ahead and notify Terminus Traffic Control that we’re going to be making transit shortly.”
“Yes, Ma’am.”
“Well, I bet that’s going to make the Beowulfers happy,” Takeuchi murmured, his voice low enough for only Tsang to hear.
“They’re just going to have to live with it,” Tsang replied flatly. “And it’s not as if they haven’t had enough time to adjust—”
“Excuse me, Fleet Admiral.”
Tsang broke off in midsentence and turned back towards Marceau, eyebrows rising as the com officer’s peculiar tone registered.
“Yes, Sherwood?”
“You’ve got an incoming priority com request, Ma’am.”
“From Traffic Control?” Tsang was surprised. She didn’t doubt the traffic control authorities were going to be unhappy with her announcement that she was coming through their terminus anyway, whatever the Beowulfan system government might have decreed. But the terminus was thirty-three light-seconds from Warshawski; there was no way Marceau’s transmission could have reached it yet, and any response would be at least a half-minute behind that.
“No, Ma’am,” Marceau said, still with that peculiar edge to his voice. “It’s originating from near the terminus, but it’s from Vice Admiral Holmon-Sanders, not Traffic Control.”
Tsang glanced quickly at Takeuchi. Marianne Holmon-Sanders was the Beowulf System Defense Force’s senior in-space officer, ranking just behind Admiral Corey McAvoy, the chief of naval operations. She was also the commanding officer of the BSDF’s First Fleet—its only fleet, really—which made the fact that the incoming message was from her even more interesting.


To me, that means Tsang was intending to transit prior to the interaction with the Beowulf fleet.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:37 am

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cthia wrote:Perhaps my understanding is a bit askew. Correct me if so and I'll adjust my ballast tanks.

1) The Mandarin's entire hole card was that the defenses had been gutted. There was no need to investigate whether that logic was true because it was implied. The loss of infrastructure in the MBS could be seen. Or heard if you turn on your HD. It dominated the news. The most proliferous space stations in history had been destroyed. For a navy to do that, Manticoran defenses simply HAD to be gutted. Or how did any navy accomplish that? Everybody in the galaxy knows the RMN will fight right down to the last ship and fire their very last missile before losing that infrastructure. So the Mandarin's logic was sound. And there was no need to waste time confirming what is obviously a given. What simply had to be a given. There is no way they could have known about the essential missing variable. MALIGN STEALTH. You can't blame the Mandarins or the SLN for drawing conclusions based on any conventional Navy's tech. Because, if a conventional navy with conventional tech attacked the RM-frickin-N and was able to destroy Hephaestus and Vulcan, then Mandarin logic would have to been sound, wouldn't it. Any conventional Navy would have had to go through Manty defenses first. The Mandarins just didn't know the RMN couldn't SEE it's invaders. So there was no need to check to see if that assumption was correct. It is implied by the loss of infrastructure and reported lives. And it WOULD have been correct of a conventional navy.

I'd agree that what the Mandarins appear to be thinking. Though even under that it's still unforgivably stupid to assume that the trashing of defenses would include trashing all the Junction defenses.

It's 7 lighthours away from all the targets known to be trashed and an attacker aiming at home fleet and it's yards would have no reason to go pick a fight with the very strong junction defenses as well. Now if they'd gone on to take the system then yes they'd want to eventually take the Junction and might need to fight its defenses then - if they didn't accept a stand down order from the surrendering Manticoran government. But hitting it on the way in just makes the job of defeating the in-system defenses harder without giving you any significant advantage.

So there was zero reason to assume that the Junction was defenseless even after accepting the (flawed) logic that the in-system defenses must have been crushed.

But it does seem the Mandarins honestly were that stupid and, as you say, didn't verify their assumptions and conclusions before acting.
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by cthia   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:50 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:
cthia wrote:Perhaps my understanding is a bit askew. Correct me if so and I'll adjust my ballast tanks.

1) The Mandarin's entire hole card was that the defenses had been gutted. There was no need to investigate whether that logic was true because it was implied. The loss of infrastructure in the MBS could be seen. Or heard if you turn on your HD. It dominated the news. The most proliferous space stations in history had been destroyed. For a navy to do that, Manticoran defenses simply HAD to be gutted. Or how did any navy accomplish that? Everybody in the galaxy knows the RMN will fight right down to the last ship and fire their very last missile before losing that infrastructure. So the Mandarin's logic was sound. And there was no need to waste time confirming what is obviously a given. What simply had to be a given. There is no way they could have known about the essential missing variable. MALIGN STEALTH. You can't blame the Mandarins or the SLN for drawing conclusions based on any conventional Navy's tech. Because, if a conventional navy with conventional tech attacked the RM-frickin-N and was able to destroy Hephaestus and Vulcan, then Mandarin logic would have to been sound, wouldn't it. Any conventional Navy would have had to go through Manty defenses first. The Mandarins just didn't know the RMN couldn't SEE it's invaders. So there was no need to check to see if that assumption was correct. It is implied by the loss of infrastructure and reported lives. And it WOULD have been correct of a conventional navy.

I'd agree that what the Mandarins appear to be thinking. Though even under that it's still unforgivably stupid to assume that the trashing of defenses would include trashing all the Junction defenses.

It's 7 lighthours away from all the targets known to be trashed and an attacker aiming at home fleet and it's yards would have no reason to go pick a fight with the very strong junction defenses as well. Now if they'd gone on to take the system then yes they'd want to eventually take the Junction and might need to fight its defenses then - if they didn't accept a stand down order from the surrendering Manticoran government. But hitting it on the way in just makes the job of defeating the in-system defenses harder without giving you any significant advantage.

So there was zero reason to assume that the Junction was defenseless even after accepting the (flawed) logic that the in-system defenses must have been crushed.

But it does seem the Mandarins honestly were that stupid and, as you say, didn't verify their assumptions and conclusions before acting.

I'm still not convinced Jonathan, because there is a lot that would have been implied to unsound Solarian minds.

Gutted defenses also might mean spent missile supplies. (Which actually was almost true). That kind of battle had to eat into Manty stockpiles like Pac-Man smoking pot. Plus their shipyards and ability to replenish them was gone.

So perhaps I'm wrong and the Sols were thinking what I'm thinking. Even though the junction might not have been attacked, the missile supplies of the Forts would have had to be taken and redistributed amongst the navy. Holding onto the planet is more important than the MWJ. Weren't the Fort's missiles usable by the Navy?

Hence my notion that the Forts could have been posturing with an empty gun.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Theemile   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:15 am

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cthia wrote:I'm still not convinced Jonathan, because there is a lot that would have been implied to unsound Solarian minds.

Gutted defenses also might mean spent missile supplies. (Which actually was almost true). That kind of battle had to eat into Manty stockpiles like Pac-Man smoking pot. Plus their shipyards and ability to replenish them was gone.

So perhaps I'm wrong and the Sols were thinking what I'm thinking. Even though the junction might not have been attacked, the missile supplies of the Forts would have had to be taken and redistributed amongst the navy. Holding onto the planet is more important than the MWJ. Weren't the Fort's missiles usable by the Navy?

Hence my notion that the Forts could have been posturing with an empty gun.



Even if the forts were Winchester (I can see taking some of their supplies - but not all), they still have their energy suites, and there would be minefields and IEWPs deployed to support them. Anything transiting would still have to run the gauntlet of directed energy fire without sidewalls or wedges to defend themselves, while the defenders could sit back beyond 500,000 km where even the heaviest Grasers cannot easily bleed through sidewalls. And if you send singletons, their 8 minutes solo in the emergence lane would cut them to shreds - if you send a max transit of 20 some ships, a few may reach the end of the emergence lane with some combat capability, but it would tie up the wormhole for 17 hours.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by cthia   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:02 am

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Theemile wrote:
cthia wrote:I'm still not convinced Jonathan, because there is a lot that would have been implied to unsound Solarian minds.

Gutted defenses also might mean spent missile supplies. (Which actually was almost true). That kind of battle had to eat into Manty stockpiles like Pac-Man smoking pot. Plus their shipyards and ability to replenish them was gone.

So perhaps I'm wrong and the Sols were thinking what I'm thinking. Even though the junction might not have been attacked, the missile supplies of the Forts would have had to be taken and redistributed amongst the navy. Holding onto the planet is more important than the MWJ. Weren't the Fort's missiles usable by the Navy?

Hence my notion that the Forts could have been posturing with an empty gun.



Even if the forts were Winchester (I can see taking some of their supplies - but not all), they still have their energy suites, and there would be minefields and IEWPs deployed to support them. Anything transiting would still have to run the gauntlet of directed energy fire without sidewalls or wedges to defend themselves, while the defenders could sit back beyond 500,000 km where even the heaviest Grasers cannot easily bleed through sidewalls. And if you send singletons, their 8 minutes solo in the emergence lane would cut them to shreds - if you send a max transit of 20 some ships, a few may reach the end of the emergence lane with some combat capability, but it would tie up the wormhole for 17 hours.

Understood. But if the MBS is so much of a barenaked lady it has to strip the Forts missile supply, then perhaps the mines were reallocated as well. Perhaps even the Forts were repositioned nearer the Queen like Rooks on a chessboard. Granted, that was easily checked. But still, it was a moot point because Filareta shouldn't have needed Tsang if he decided to attack.

At any rate, if the surrounding shoals of supporting mines around the junction are redistributed and the Fort's missiles are redistributed, then the Forts, even with their energy batteries, would have to be repositioned.

Too close to the junction and some ships will escape. Too far and all ships would survive. No?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:38 am

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cthia wrote:Understood. But if the MBS is so much of a barenaked lady it has to strip the Forts missile supply, then perhaps the mines were reallocated as well. Perhaps even the Forts were repositioned nearer the Queen like Rooks on a chessboard. Granted, that was easily checked. But still, it was a moot point because Filareta shouldn't have needed Tsang if he decided to attack.

At any rate, if the surrounding shoals of supporting mines around the junction are redistributed and the Fort's missiles are redistributed, then the Forts, even with their energy batteries, would have to be repositioned.

Too close to the junction and some ships will escape. Too far and all ships would survive. No?

The mines are unlikely, IMO, to be moved. They're hard to employ effectively in free space and they're not that useful around a planet against any serious attacker. So those are the defenses most likely to be left at the Junction.

Now it is possible some of the forts themselves might be called back to cover Manticore and Sphynx. We're told they can move, but at under 100g. However even at only 50g, which their grav plates should completely handle, a fort can move itself from the Junction to the planets in around 3 days.

So the Junction defenses might be weakened (fort removed, missiles/pods confiscated and redistributed) but it's unlikely the defenses would be completely removed.


But the truly mind boggling thing is that even though the Mandarins had a lot of time to covertly double-check their assumptions before Raging Justice could arrive they didn't bother. I can see going on unverified assumptions when there's no time; but because the attack had to go the long way while a recon trip could pop through the wormhole there would be no delay in checking their assumptions!
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:53 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:But the truly mind boggling thing is that even though the Mandarins had a lot of time to covertly double-check their assumptions before Raging Justice could arrive they didn't bother. I can see going on unverified assumptions when there's no time; but because the attack had to go the long way while a recon trip could pop through the wormhole there would be no delay in checking their assumptions!


It's quite clear that the Mandarins' wishes and Tsang's orders were not the same. So even if the Mandarins had ordered covert assessment, that would not have changed the outcome. And who would they have ordered anyway? The same service that was giving Tsang her orders.

From the excerpts Duckk posted above, the Mandarins would not have seen even the need to gather more intel, because they never intended for Tsang to transit. All that Tsang would need to know she could see with her sensors: the Beowulf terminus and its defences (that the RMN could hide 60 SD(P)s was never in anyone's calculations). Their objective was to get Beowulf to stand in the way and thus cause Beowulf to lose face when the SLN showed restraint.

It was a bluff. A well-informed one, because when Adm. Simpson came back and said that the BSDF would stop them, the BSDF would have to make good on its word.

The only question unanswered here is what happens if the BSDF called Tsang's bluff? What were the Mandarins' contingency orders?

Finally, who changed the orders? Was it Kingsford? Someone in his staff, on the way to Tsang? And back to the OP's question: why was Tsang so stupid?
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Brigade XO   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:20 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
It was a bluff. A well-informed one, because when Adm. Simpson came back and said that the BSDF would stop them, the BSDF would have to make good on its word.

The only question unanswered here is what happens if the BSDF called Tsang's bluff? What were the Mandarins' contingency orders?

Finally, who changed the orders? Was it Kingsford? Someone in his staff, on the way to Tsang? And back to the OP's question: why was Tsang so stupid?


Someone in the Naval Side changed the orders- well not so much changed them as issured orders from the CNO as the Mandarins are not writing Naval Orders. Rajampet was still in charge but it could have been under someone else's name at his direction. Remember he had Tsang sequestered at Ganymde when she came back.

Of couse then you have to ask that if she was going to push the BSDF into at least an exchange of fire and was then supposed to transit the wormhole, what happened to her whole sense of duty when "only" 60 RMN SD's dropped stealth and she discovered that both sides had the drop on her.
If she had 30 BSDF SDs to one vector and 60 RMN SDs to another her ability to both attack and defend was what we used to call "compromised". She is supposed to fight her way through BSDF if they stand in the way and then TRANSIT THE WORMHOLE AND GO TO THE SUPPORT OF FILLERTA.
She did not do that. She broke off. Tacticaly that was a very sound move.

What don't we see and what hasn't been talked about? Well there is the little matter of apparently both Beowulf and Manticore knowing that there is this little DB sitting not far off the Junction with impellers hot and waiting for "the word" of an attack on the Manticore Binary System by some 300 wallers. Fillerta shows up, news of that travels across the MBS litteraly faster than light and the Junction goes a bit nuts as merchant shipping starts screaming to be LET ME OUT OF DODGE-THOUGH THE WORMHOLE, along with those who just bail and run for the hyperlimit of the wormhole and get out of the way of any -presumed- other force that would be sent to hit the Junction defences and at least keep them from headding in-system.

So, when Fillerta crosses the hyperlimit into the MBS, and 1st has to make a choice then get's assasinated by the Aligment and the SLN fleet gets crushed buy the now GA fleet......why isn't a DB- actualy more likely at least a DD sent screaming though the Wormhole to the Sigma Draconis terminus and off to Adm Truman (and a DB to Beowulf) to tell her that a State of War now exists between the SLN and SKM (and HAVEN)?

Or has Tsang had enough time to turn tail & run from the combined BSDF/RMN force clearly in control and ready to smash her if she makes any further movement for the terminus?
Or Tsand perhaps just sort of "marches" (at whaever speed and formation would be used to take that posture) to the edge of the terminus hyperlimit and flits back to Sol?

Because when the courier DD arrives within communications range of Truman (and the BSDF) I could see (and it might even be ordered) that Truman might just tell Tsang that " your Admiral Fillerta is dead, your fleet is totaly destroyed or surrenedered and your Navy fired first so get out of my sky or die....you have x minutes. Start acclereating as hard as you can for the hyperlimit. And, yes, I can engage you at xxmil k".
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:58 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Someone in the Naval Side changed the orders- well not so much changed them as issured orders from the CNO as the Mandarins are not writing Naval Orders. Rajampet was still in charge but it could have been under someone else's name at his direction. Remember he had Tsang sequestered at Ganymde when she came back.


Can someone confirm who the CNO was at the time Operation Arbaleta (Tsang's arm of Raging Justice) was launched? The OP in this thread suggests it was Kingsford and the fact that Adm. Simpson was his cousin would indicate so. But that's in contrast with Kingsford's character that we've been seeing.

If it was still Rajampet, it's a completely different story.

What don't we see and what hasn't been talked about? Well there is the little matter of apparently both Beowulf and Manticore knowing that there is this little DB sitting not far off the Junction with impellers hot and waiting for "the word" of an attack on the Manticore Binary System by some 300 wallers.


Quick note: 435.

Fillerta shows up, news of that travels across the MBS litteraly faster than light and the Junction goes a bit nuts as merchant shipping starts screaming to be LET ME OUT OF DODGE-THOUGH THE WORMHOLE, along with those who just bail and run for the hyperlimit of the wormhole and get out of the way of any -presumed- other force that would be sent to hit the Junction defences and at least keep them from headding in-system.


We don't actually know that the news was transmitted faster than light to the DB. We don't even know the actual timing between the two sides because the information flow was controlled by Manticore. As I argued in the previous thread we discussed this, it would be very easy for Manticore to withhold the information from any ship at the Junction for an hour or even two. The Hermes buoys were controlled by the RMN and ACS, so they decided when to disclose; light-speed communication would take 7 hours.

The only possibility for FTL is for a ship to come from the inner system via dogleg. That wouldn't be a freighter, they wouldn't dare use the Junction. But a dispatch or news boat might. In a dog leg course implies four hyperspace transitions, which I estimate at the lowest 40 minutes because of the hypergenerators recharging. Plus whatever time it took this ship to reach the Manticore-A hyperlimit.

So, when Fillerta crosses the hyperlimit into the MBS, and 1st has to make a choice then get's assasinated by the Aligment and the SLN fleet gets crushed buy the now GA fleet......why isn't a DB- actualy more likely at least a DD sent screaming though the Wormhole to the Sigma Draconis terminus and off to Adm Truman (and a DB to Beowulf) to tell her that a State of War now exists between the SLN and SKM (and HAVEN)?


Because there were no DDs left to do that. All ships apparently crossed into the hyperlimit and thus surrendered. Remember also that Tourville transited behind them, so they had no easy escape either.

There's also the limiting factor that Filareta didn't know about Tsang! That entire part of the operation was devised after he got his marching orders to sail to Manticore and rightly so because he would have sent word back not to do such a stupid thing.

There might have been another DB in the inner system ready to go to the Junction. In fact, I think that's likely: that must have been how the SLN expected to get the news from Filareta's arrival to the DB that was in the outgoing queue. But the SLN couldn't count on it: after the SLN attacked, the RMN would be in its rights to block SLN boats from transiting.

Unless you meant the RMN would send such a message to Truman. That wasn't necessary. First, Truman knew that Filareta was arriving and knew of Honor and Theisman's plans to trap him. Second, there was no need for a DD, since the RMN does have the Hermes network, so it could get the message from the inner system to the junction in under 7 minutes and can cross the Junction carried by the next ship. And finally, Manticore had already declared that a state of war existed between the Empire and the League.

Because when the courier DD arrives within communications range of Truman (and the BSDF) I could see (and it might even be ordered) that Truman might just tell Tsang that " your Admiral Fillerta is dead, your fleet is totaly destroyed or surrenedered and your Navy fired first so get out of my sky or die....you have x minutes. Start acclereating as hard as you can for the hyperlimit. And, yes, I can engage you at xxmil k".


Tsang would have no reason to believe that and all the reason to disbelieve it.
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Re: Why were they so foolish?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:42 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:We don't actually know that the news was transmitted faster than light to the DB. We don't even know the actual timing between the two sides because the information flow was controlled by Manticore. As I argued in the previous thread we discussed this, it would be very easy for Manticore to withhold the information from any ship at the Junction for an hour or even two. The Hermes buoys were controlled by the RMN and ACS, so they decided when to disclose; light-speed communication would take 7 hours.

The only possibility for FTL is for a ship to come from the inner system via dogleg. That wouldn't be a freighter, they wouldn't dare use the Junction. But a dispatch or news boat might. In a dog leg course implies four hyperspace transitions, which I estimate at the lowest 40 minutes because of the hypergenerators recharging. Plus whatever time it took this ship to reach the Manticore-A hyperlimit.

Confused me for a moment; but are you saying 4 transitions meaning 2 entries and 2 exits? Certainly a dogleg would require that; and don't forget jumps that short would have a high amount of variability; so set your aim points with room to still be safe if you drop out short. (But for a moment I thought you meant 4 hyper segments and couldn't see what the extra 2 were needed for)


Though actually you might not even need to dogleg at all. Seems to me you could clear the Manticore-A hyper limit at any point along the periphery[1] and just jump to an exit point far enough beyond the Junction's hyper limit that even dropping out short still leaves you abreast of or beyond the Junction. Even being off to a side keeps you out of the RZ and such a jump should put you close enough to eliminate most of the radio transmission lag; even if it'd take you a while to motor your ship over to where you could actually use the junction. (But be really sure you don't drop out short of the Junction cause that could easily place you in the RZ; and your ship wouldn't survive that particular mistake)

[1] Doesn't matter if you're inside the RZ because you can safely enter hyper from there; it's only exiting that's deadly
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