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Expansion of the Empire: where to?

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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by cthia   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:48 am

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Pardon me for asking, but why is the SEM wanting to grow? Why do they need to expand? The MWJ feeds them all like fatted calfs. Certainly they aren't running out of livable real estate.

Anyway, why would the SEM want to absorb poor systems? And, what are the immediate expectations of poor colonies? I keep salivating about the huge freighters of motivation Beth sent Grayson. Surely that's not the norm? There has to be some sort of long term investment study done before soliciting or accepting admittance. It seems they'd have to bring something to the table except mouths to feed.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:36 am

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cthia wrote:Pardon me for asking, but why is the SEM wanting to grow? Why do they need to expand? The MWJ feeds them all like fatted calfs. Certainly they aren't running out of livable real estate.


I've answered this: it's the other systems that ask for annexation, after seeing the economic boom in Silesia and especially Talbott. Even non-membership is worth it, quod vide Sidemore, Idaho, and Grayson.

Anyway, why would the SEM want to absorb poor systems? And, what are the immediate expectations of poor colonies? I keep salivating about the huge freighters of motivation Beth sent Grayson. Surely that's not the norm? There has to be some sort of long term investment study done before soliciting or accepting admittance. It seems they'd have to bring something to the table except mouths to feed.


Why did they accept the annexation of the Talbott Quadrant? Silesia I can understand as a "use it or lose it" situation: if they didn't, the entire Confederation would become Andermani.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:07 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Why did they accept the annexation of the Talbott Quadrant? Silesia I can understand as a "use it or lose it" situation: if they didn't, the entire Confederation would become Andermani.
Good point. That is a bit surprising.
Accepting Lynx itself, as the nearest inhabited system to the wormhole, I can somewhat see.

But Talbott doesn't seem to provide an immediate benefit to Manticore. Unless, maybe, they were especially worried about having OFS take over so many worlds right next to their new wormhole terminus.

Because it seems like they could have just as easily thanked Talbott for their interest but explained that Manticore just wasn't interested in taking ownership of a bunch more systems right now. However Manticore would be happy to trade with them, there were probably investors looking for opportunities that the new proximity to Manticore and expected new traffic from the League might bring, and the Crown might even subsidize some very attractive loans for education and technology upgrades. Heck if you ask nicely the RMN might even extend some anti-piracy patrols should that become an issue.

OTOH there might be lowered willingness to invest in the Cluster if Manticoran investors feared that systems would rapidly fall under OFS control; with the resulting transtellar capture of their economies. Hard to get return on your investment if Solarian interference cripples, bankrupts, or seizes the companies you invested in. But that's not strictly Manticore's problem. Investors took their chances and can live with it not playing out; though it's a problem for Talbott in that it would likely significantly reduce the amount of investment they could attract.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by tlb   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:58 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Why did they accept the annexation of the Talbott Quadrant? Silesia I can understand as a "use it or lose it" situation: if they didn't, the entire Confederation would become Andermani.

Jonathan_S wrote:Good point. That is a bit surprising.
Accepting Lynx itself, as the nearest inhabited system to the wormhole, I can somewhat see.

But Talbott doesn't seem to provide an immediate benefit to Manticore. Unless, maybe, they were especially worried about having OFS take over so many worlds right next to their new wormhole terminus.

Because it seems like they could have just as easily thanked Talbott for their interest but explained that Manticore just wasn't interested in taking ownership of a bunch more systems right now. However Manticore would be happy to trade with them, there were probably investors looking for opportunities that the new proximity to Manticore and expected new traffic from the League might bring, and the Crown might even subsidize some very attractive loans for education and technology upgrades. Heck if you ask nicely the RMN might even extend some anti-piracy patrols should that become an issue.

OTOH there might be lowered willingness to invest in the Cluster if Manticoran investors feared that systems would rapidly fall under OFS control; with the resulting transtellar capture of their economies. Hard to get return on your investment if Solarian interference cripples, bankrupts, or seizes the companies you invested in. But that's not strictly Manticore's problem. Investors took their chances and can live with it not playing out; though it's a problem for Talbott in that it would likely significantly reduce the amount of investment they could attract.

On the other hand, if they were worried about the OFS, then they made the wrong decision by accepting these planets.

At that time, they did noy know that they should be worried about OFS and were simply happy that a bunch of planets were enthusiastic about joining Manticore. They were certain that; although the planets might be poor now, the benefits of the junction trade would elevate the economic status of the entire quadrant. It is possible that years of fighting a multi-system power made them aware of the advantages brought by having many planets of their own.

You might want to contrast this with all the trouble Manticore had defending weaker allies, but those allies were in easy striking distance of Haven. Of the new members joining the SEM at some point, all are close to Manticore because of the wormhole junction but only San Martin is immediately vulnerable to attack and must be defended at all costs. Both the Talbott Quadrant (joining soon) and half of Silesia (joining at some point) are distant from likely action by Haven.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:54 pm

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tlb wrote:On the other hand, if they were worried about the OFS, then they made the wrong decision by accepting these planets.
I was thinking less about direct confrontations between Manticore and OFS/FF (which is obviously what happened in the books) and more about OFS and the transtellars scooping up the various systems in the Cluster, and thereby wrecking any investments Manticore or Manticorans had made there (and possibly make it hard for Manticoran freighters to make a buck shipping there)

So more an indirect economic worry than a direct military confrontation.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by tlb   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:32 pm

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tlb wrote:On the other hand, if they were worried about the OFS, then they made the wrong decision by accepting these planets.

Jonathan_S wrote:I was thinking less about direct confrontations between Manticore and OFS/FF (which is obviously what happened in the books) and more about OFS and the transtellars scooping up the various systems in the Cluster, and thereby wrecking any investments Manticore or Manticorans had made there (and possibly make it hard for Manticoran freighters to make a buck shipping there)

So more an indirect economic worry than a direct military confrontation.

It seems to me that the Office of Frontier Security, the transtellars and Frontier Fleet are so intertwined that an economic intervention in a planetary system is backed by a threat of military intervention. Now I do not think Manticore itself would be worried, but they know how the system works and saw that they and the planets would benefit if they all came together instead of leaving the planets to OFS.

No one could know that the Mesan Alignment had put wheels in motion to counteract the threat to Mesa that this expansion represented. So they did not know how events would play out and would only realize the effects of this decision afterwards. I doubt that they regretted what they had done.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by cthia   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:01 pm

cthia
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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Pardon me for asking, but why is the SEM wanting to grow? Why do they need to expand? The MWJ feeds them all like fatted calfs. Certainly they aren't running out of livable real estate.


I've answered this: it's the other systems that ask for annexation, after seeing the economic boom in Silesia and especially Talbott. Even non-membership is worth it, quod vide Sidemore, Idaho, and Grayson.

Anyway, why would the SEM want to absorb poor systems? And, what are the immediate expectations of poor colonies? I keep salivating about the huge freighters of motivation Beth sent Grayson. Surely that's not the norm? There has to be some sort of long term investment study done before soliciting or accepting admittance. It seems they'd have to bring something to the table except mouths to feed.


Why did they accept the annexation of the Talbott Quadrant? Silesia I can understand as a "use it or lose it" situation: if they didn't, the entire Confederation would become Andermani.

But asking doesn't obligate the SEM. Like Talbott, I really thought it had something to do with Manticore's long established Dudley Doright of the Galaxy image. Like the US once upon a time. The Galaxy's hero, if you will. IOW, all I could figure is Manticore had a long cultivated reputation to nurture. But still, there are limits. Although, long term studies of real estate may reveal strategic and or economic advantages. I also considered that poor quadrants were poor only because they were being bled to death by the SL, and piracy.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by tlb   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:43 pm

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cthia wrote:I also considered that poor quadrants were poor only because they were being bled to death by the SL, and piracy.

I do not think that either is a major cause of poverty in the Talbot Quadrant. Certainly the Solarian League has not extended itself into the Quadrant. There is some piracy, but it is not shown as widespread. As an example Dresden is being exploited by Rembrandt (Storm from the Shadows, chapter 15):
"Don't get me wrong." She shook her head, and her voice was calmer, as if she were reasserting control over her own passions. "There's no reason why anyone off Dresden should have given us a free ride. We understand that. Charity begins at home, they say, and Dresden is our home, not Rembrandt's, or San Miguel's, or Manticore's. It's not so much that no one came and invested in free clinics or schools for us, but that we had to fight other people tooth and nail to somehow hang onto enough of the profit of our own labor, our own industrial structure—such as it was, and what there was of it—to begin building our own clinics and schools.
"We'd figured that out by the time the RTU finally got around to us, which is why one of the things we insisted on, if they wanted trade deals with us, was that they had to clean their own house where people like the Van Scheldts were concerned—had to put at least some limits on the kind of crap they could get away with. And, to Mr. Van Dort's credit, I suppose, the RTU did just that. Of course, the extent of the limits they could impose was limited by the domestic pull of their own oligarchs who were already invested in Dresden, but they still managed to do a lot. Which is probably one of the reasons Van Scheldt is such a pain where I'm concerned, I suppose, since his family got whacked harder than most . . . since they'd been even worse than most. But even with Van Dort on our side—and I think he really is" she sounded almost as if she wished she could believe otherwise, Gervais thought "—we're still a long way from where we could have been. It's hard to stand on your own two feet when someone else owns the carpet and keeps trying to jerk it out from under you."


In some of the planets the oligarchs have control of the capital, but do not invest it.
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by cthia   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:57 pm

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tlb wrote:
cthia wrote:I also considered that poor quadrants were poor only because they were being bled to death by the SL, and piracy.

I do not think that either is a major cause of poverty in the Talbot Quadrant. Certainly the Solarian League has not extended itself into the Quadrant. There is some piracy, but it is not shown as widespread. As an example Dresden is being exploited by Rembrandt (Storm from the Shadows, chapter 15):
"Don't get me wrong." She shook her head, and her voice was calmer, as if she were reasserting control over her own passions. "There's no reason why anyone off Dresden should have given us a free ride. We understand that. Charity begins at home, they say, and Dresden is our home, not Rembrandt's, or San Miguel's, or Manticore's. It's not so much that no one came and invested in free clinics or schools for us, but that we had to fight other people tooth and nail to somehow hang onto enough of the profit of our own labor, our own industrial structure—such as it was, and what there was of it—to begin building our own clinics and schools.
"We'd figured that out by the time the RTU finally got around to us, which is why one of the things we insisted on, if they wanted trade deals with us, was that they had to clean their own house where people like the Van Scheldts were concerned—had to put at least some limits on the kind of crap they could get away with. And, to Mr. Van Dort's credit, I suppose, the RTU did just that. Of course, the extent of the limits they could impose was limited by the domestic pull of their own oligarchs who were already invested in Dresden, but they still managed to do a lot. Which is probably one of the reasons Van Scheldt is such a pain where I'm concerned, I suppose, since his family got whacked harder than most . . . since they'd been even worse than most. But even with Van Dort on our side—and I think he really is" she sounded almost as if she wished she could believe otherwise, Gervais thought "—we're still a long way from where we could have been. It's hard to stand on your own two feet when someone else owns the carpet and keeps trying to jerk it out from under you."


In some of the planets the oligarchs have control of the capital, but do not invest it.

Thanks. So, I was right about the cause, but wrong about the bleeder.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Expansion of the Empire: where to?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:27 pm

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cthia wrote:But asking doesn't obligate the SEM. Like Talbott, I really thought it had something to do with Manticore's long established Dudley Doright of the Galaxy image. Like the US once upon a time. The Galaxy's hero, if you will. IOW, all I could figure is Manticore had a long cultivated reputation to nurture. But still, there are limits. Although, long term studies of real estate may reveal strategic and or economic advantages. I also considered that poor quadrants were poor only because they were being bled to death by the SL, and piracy.


It doesn't, but Manticore must respond and the answer must be fair. And you know the rejection will be met with "why them and not us?" So we need to answer why Talbott first in order to understand what circumstances made their annexation acceptable before we can dismiss expansion elsewhere.

As I said in the OP, the region most likely to request next is Matapan (provided that politically they were not founded with "we want to be away from you" in the first place). Coming in second would be other systems close to the MBS, but with the advent of the Manticore-Haven Federation, those may simply join that instead and retain some level of independence. What would make the Matapan Cluster any different from Talbott? I quite frankly can't see it.

If you go beyond that, the Madras Sector may request too, since Manticore has just liberated them. But I figure Manticore tells them, "ask again in 20 years, after you've had a chance to actually live without OFS."
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