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Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?

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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by Fox2!   » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:22 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:Good counter-point. Before Warrior (and again before Dreadnought) the Royal Navy had the advantage that while the status quo held they were already the most powerful navy - so they had extra incentive to avoid disrupting that favorable status quo by obsoleting their fleet.

As an aside I think the claims that they scored an own goal with HMS Dreadnought by obsoleting all existing battleships (of which they had major numerical superiority) by allowing the Germans to start a naval arms race without regard to the pre-dreadnoughts are vastly overblown.


The dreadnaught was coming, even if the RN didn't build HMS Dreadnaught. It would have been called South Carolina or Satsuma type battleships. Such would have happened to Manticore, as well.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:23 pm

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Lots of ifs.
The primary one is if the Manticor Prime Minister hadn't been killed in the assassination attempt -and just why didn't either official state vessel have at least serious, multi-layer CM defence?
The government does't fall, the peace overture is not extended by St. Just (or even if it had), Manticore drives on and in a relativly short time presents 8th Fleet at Haven and then the war is mostly over.
I say mostly because it is quite likely that all or many of those units of mostly SS which in the actual time-line decided to set up their own little empires are likely to have still done just that. And, for the most part, Manticore and the Andermani (with some help from other allies) would be dealing with that---but NOT the RHN. No idea what would happen to the surviving RNH but it wasn't going to get the next four to five years to gain experience and skills agains more or less equal capasity ships.
And no clue about Bolt Hole but if Manticore requires it's ONI to sift through the New Octigon that probably would have come out and then.....well,... no secret rearming.

The difference is that a the Duke of Comarty would have been looking to conclude the negotiations with Haven. Both from a position of strength (which High Ridge had but cynicaly didn't use and squandered it) and would have pushed for an actual fair and reasonable treaty. We get to see what Pritchard's thinking was post truce. She was willing to trade off a fair amount of what Haven had already lost to Manticor via occupation after loss but from what we saw from Manticore (not High Ridge) they probably would have left Haven with their original colonies and any of the "acquired" systems that wanted to go back to Haven. Yeah, Manticore would have overseen the refernedums in all those places with RH observers but other than a few places that would be key bases (and of course San Martin) having systems resume independent control would work.

No clue when and how we might have then seen the Alignment come into all of this but I'm sure RFC would have managed it Very Big Smile.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:32 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Lots of ifs.
The primary one is if the Manticor Prime Minister hadn't been killed in the assassination attempt -and just why didn't either official state vessel have at least serious, multi-layer CM defence?
The government does't fall, the peace overture is not extended by St. Just (or even if it had), Manticore drives on and in a relativly short time presents 8th Fleet at Haven and then the war is mostly over.
I say mostly because it is quite likely that all or many of those units of mostly SS which in the actual time-line decided to set up their own little empires are likely to have still done just that. And, for the most part, Manticore and the Andermani (with some help from other allies) would be dealing with that---but NOT the RHN. No idea what would happen to the surviving RNH but it wasn't going to get the next four to five years to gain experience and skills agains more or less equal capasity ships.
And no clue about Bolt Hole but if Manticore requires it's ONI to sift through the New Octigon that probably would have come out and then.....well,... no secret rearming.

The difference is that a the Duke of Comarty would have been looking to conclude the negotiations with Haven. Both from a position of strength (which High Ridge had but cynicaly didn't use and squandered it) and would have pushed for an actual fair and reasonable treaty. We get to see what Pritchard's thinking was post truce. She was willing to trade off a fair amount of what Haven had already lost to Manticor via occupation after loss but from what we saw from Manticore (not High Ridge) they probably would have left Haven with their original colonies and any of the "acquired" systems that wanted to go back to Haven. Yeah, Manticore would have overseen the refernedums in all those places with RH observers but other than a few places that would be key bases (and of course San Martin) having systems resume independent control would work..


Let me add a bit more and in support of your conclusion: the Theisman Coup would have occurred anyway and Theisman would still have placed Pritchart as the head of the provisional government. That's who would have negotiated with the Alliance. In fact, I think Pritchart would have even called for a cease-fire and negotiation, which as you pointed out would be between her and the Duke of Cromarty. They understand, even if Honor hadn't uttered the words yet, that a beaten foe eventually emerges from its defeat and seeks revenge.

Even if there was no cease-fire or even the Coup, Capital Fleet was under Theisman's control. If Eighth Fleet comes to Haven, they won't fight. Theisman is not stupid and he knows that his ships are only targets. Moreover, Honor is in that fleet (probably sitting in the flag bridge of GNS Honor Harrington, either commanding the first division of the Eight Fleet's first battle squadron or commanding the first battle squadron itself) and she knows Theisman from way back. She knows he's an honourable adversary. He was there when Ransom took her away and she could see he hadn't wanted that.

And as head of the RHN, I think he'd have argued for what I'm arguing Kingsford should be asking right now for the SLN: the right to clean up their own previous government's mess. Those StateSec warlords are a scourge in the Sector and by hunting them down, he gets to train his people and prove their worth.

I'm not sure the Alliance would have let him. A system that he liberates is still a system part of the Republic until a plebiscite decides otherwise, whereas a system that the Alliance liberates is nominally independent until a plebiscite votes to rejoin the Republic. The Alliance can severely reduce the Republic's power by stripping systems out of it.

Kind of like what the Grand Alliance is doing now to the Solarian League.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:42 pm

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Fox2! wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:Good counter-point. Before Warrior (and again before Dreadnought) the Royal Navy had the advantage that while the status quo held they were already the most powerful navy - so they had extra incentive to avoid disrupting that favorable status quo by obsoleting their fleet.

As an aside I think the claims that they scored an own goal with HMS Dreadnought by obsoleting all existing battleships (of which they had major numerical superiority) by allowing the Germans to start a naval arms race without regard to the pre-dreadnoughts are vastly overblown.


The dreadnaught was coming, even if the RN didn't build HMS Dreadnaught. It would have been called South Carolina or Satsuma type battleships. Such would have happened to Manticore, as well.

Yep.

Though I do find it amusing that you snipped the quote of my post right before the paragraphs that made pretty much the same point you then made in your response :D
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:55 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Let me add a bit more and in support of your conclusion: the Theisman Coup would have occurred anyway and Theisman would still have placed Pritchart as the head of the provisional government. That's who would have negotiated with the Alliance. In fact, I think Pritchart would have even called for a cease-fire and negotiation, which as you pointed out would be between her and the Duke of Cromarty. They understand, even if Honor hadn't uttered the words yet, that a beaten foe eventually emerges from its defeat and seeks revenge.

Even if there was no cease-fire or even the Coup, Capital Fleet was under Theisman's control. If Eighth Fleet comes to Haven, they won't fight. Theisman is not stupid and he knows that his ships are only targets. Moreover, Honor is in that fleet (probably sitting in the flag bridge of GNS Honor Harrington, either commanding the first division of the Eight Fleet's first battle squadron or commanding the first battle squadron itself) and she knows Theisman from way back. She knows he's an honourable adversary. He was there when Ransom took her away and she could see he hadn't wanted that.

And as head of the RHN, I think he'd have argued for what I'm arguing Kingsford should be asking right now for the SLN: the right to clean up their own previous government's mess. Those StateSec warlords are a scourge in the Sector and by hunting them down, he gets to train his people and prove their worth.

I'm not sure the Alliance would have let him. A system that he liberates is still a system part of the Republic until a plebiscite decides otherwise, whereas a system that the Alliance liberates is nominally independent until a plebiscite votes to rejoin the Republic. The Alliance can severely reduce the Republic's power by stripping systems out of it.

Kind of like what the Grand Alliance is doing now to the Solarian League.
Or that the very least the Alliance might have insisted on joint naval operations against upstart warlords. Given the tech imbalance they'd bring against the rebel ex-Peep warships of the warlord the fights would be over much faster (which does serve humanitarian goals of ending the despotism over those systems). But that quick resolution means Theisman's Haven Republic Navy doesn't get the combat experience to gel its crews and sharpen its skills now that it's freed from the StateSec People's Commissioner and their ability to disappear anyone they thought politically less than loyal (or that they simply disliked for any reason). And with a joint naval operation then it would be perfectly reasonable for the Alliance to also insist on joint oversight of the liberated worlds until a referendum vote could be held.

Not quite as blatantly cutting Haven out of those planet's decisions; but certainly applying more sway than just sending in a team to run one referendum vote.

And of course ongoing joint operations gives the Allied navies, and their intelligence services, much more insight into what the senior or well known RHN personnel are up to. Making it harder to have Shannon disappear off to run Bolthole without questions being asked; or transferring senior captains and officers out there to start working up Haven's new modern navy. (OTOH it also means that the flash points about the disposition of those occupied or rebelling worlds should be settled long before Bolthole has built enough ships to provide any useful military options.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by drothgery   » Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:31 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:Lots of ifs.
The primary one is if the Manticor Prime Minister hadn't been killed in the assassination attempt -and just why didn't either official state vessel have at least serious, multi-layer CM defence?
The government does't fall, the peace overture is not extended by St. Just (or even if it had), Manticore drives on and in a relativly short time presents 8th Fleet at Haven and then the war is mostly over.
I say mostly because it is quite likely that all or many of those units of mostly SS which in the actual time-line decided to set up their own little empires are likely to have still done just that. And, for the most part, Manticore and the Andermani (with some help from other allies) would be dealing with that---but NOT the RHN. No idea what would happen to the surviving RNH but it wasn't going to get the next four to five years to gain experience and skills agains more or less equal capasity ships.
And no clue about Bolt Hole but if Manticore requires it's ONI to sift through the New Octigon that probably would have come out and then.....well,... no secret rearming.

The difference is that a the Duke of Comarty would have been looking to conclude the negotiations with Haven. Both from a position of strength (which High Ridge had but cynicaly didn't use and squandered it) and would have pushed for an actual fair and reasonable treaty. We get to see what Pritchard's thinking was post truce. She was willing to trade off a fair amount of what Haven had already lost to Manticor via occupation after loss but from what we saw from Manticore (not High Ridge) they probably would have left Haven with their original colonies and any of the "acquired" systems that wanted to go back to Haven. Yeah, Manticore would have overseen the refernedums in all those places with RH observers but other than a few places that would be key bases (and of course San Martin) having systems resume independent control would work..


Let me add a bit more and in support of your conclusion: the Theisman Coup would have occurred anyway and Theisman would still have placed Pritchart as the head of the provisional government.


It might have, but it's also possible the McQueen coup happens and succeeds first (if McQueen isn't killed or taken prisoner at Trevor's Star, or shot for failing to hold it), and there's no telling what kind of government she would have set up.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:14 am

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drothgery wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Let me add a bit more and in support of your conclusion: the Theisman Coup would have occurred anyway and Theisman would still have placed Pritchart as the head of the provisional government.


It might have, but it's also possible the McQueen coup happens and succeeds first (if McQueen isn't killed or taken prisoner at Trevor's Star, or shot for failing to hold it), and there's no telling what kind of government she would have set up.


That's going much further back in time. We were discussing what would have happened if Operation Hassan had managed to take out Beth and Benjamin, whether Prestwick and Cromarty died too or not.

On the other hand, if McQueen had been alive, her coup might have launched sooner, pre-empting Hassan.
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by Garth 2   » Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:38 am

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Really interesting thread, any other "white papers" out there?
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Re: Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:41 am

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Garth 2 wrote:Really interesting thread, any other "white papers" out there?


We can write some. Like one that would justify why the MAlign moved on Talbott and Lynx (cf the empire expansion thread right now).
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