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Did the MBS corner the market on trade?

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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by tlb   » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 pm

tlb
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cthia wrote:Exactly where in the system are we placing this "News Courier?" What "news" was it there to get? Most news vehicles pretty much become part of the developing chaos. Authorities have a difficult time containing them. They tend to take "Freedom of the Press" too seriously at times.

If it was located at the junction and not in-system, it could have easily known when Filareta arrived by the increased activity, and also known the Forts were fully operational.

If it was there gathering news, what news is it gathering at the junction and not further in-system. Why rely on second hand news, which is totally unlike Newsies.

P.S. I don't understand why everyone got their undies all in a twist about my desire to destroy the Dispatch Boat. I mean, come on, it was a dispatch boat. It was built to be dispatched with. LOL

It has been pointed out to me that there are businesses at the junction. So there could be news to gather there that was not second-hand. There could even be places at the junction where couriers gather to exchange information.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by cthia   » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:22 pm

cthia
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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Byng, nor Crandle, were serious responses by the SL. They still had no clue attall what they faced. Both Byng and Crandall were still operating as poor little misguided arrogant Sollies. Operation Raging Justice was the best the Sollies had. Not only that, they sent their best COs. It was the first serious formal response dispatched by the Sollies.


Correct, but all they had at this point was anecdotal information by Adm. O'Cleary brought from Spindle. All sensor readings they'd received were provided courtesy of the RMN, so they had no way to verify their authenticity. And they weren't inclined to believe it either way.

True, they still weren't convinced of Manty superweapons. But they HAD begun to allow for the possibility, which was mentioned at both Ajay and Hypatia. Unfortunately, their best guestimates were still falling way too short. But if their splinter forces were beginning to at least allow for the possibility, certainly it should have been expected that Filareta and Tsang would as well, and might actually err much more on the side of caution. My point is that there was no way We as readers could have informed the RMN that the biggest parts of the gorilla was impotent as well.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There's simply no way that Filareta could have been adequately prepared. The fact that he had already been in the Verge is the only reason he could attack that quickly, but that also limited any surprises he might have possessed.

I could have sworn he received several ships added to his OOB while he was waiting. Apparently not. At any rate, I was talking about his OOB being upgraded with a few newer ships. I know that isn't possible, now, being reminded of the quickness of his attack. At any rate, the RMN still couldn't have known that.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The only thing that could influence that was if someone had been observing the Manticoran-Havenite Wars for some time and developing their own assets. Which did happen. Which the GA had to prepare for. So, yes, it's possible Tsang had been given further innovations than Filareta.

The RMN should have allowed for it being probable. They didn't. More than that, it would have been the better tactic to let the Manties react and commit to Filareta first and let the real arm of the law hyper in late to the party. The same tactic used by the Salamander. And the Peeps.

cthia wrote:There is NO WAY IN HELL the Alliance could have known without a shadow of a doubt there wouldn't be any surprises in the manner of what Shannon's Triple Ripple did to the RMN. There was still some mystique over what formidable capabilities the SLN had. Didn't the RMN itself say the massive beast could deploy game changing tech in record time? There were still too many variables to take a chance on allowing your enemy forces to consolidate.

It was stupid to take that risk. As readers, WE knew Tsang's Fleet was a pussycat. The RMN couldn't have known. They guessed right. But they didn't HAVE to guess. They allowed galactic coordination of forces. Stupid. It worked out for them because in this case they were fortunate they didn't get bitten on, and deep up in the ass. Remember, the Salamander originally had a fatal missile with her name on it.
ThinksMarkedly wrote: Agreed it was a risk. There was a non-zero possibility that Tsang had some surprise. So, yes, I agree with you that letting the D.B. through invited an unnecessary risk. It might have been (and was!) a negligible risk, but negligible is not zero.

But was it stupid to incur this risk?

Stupid indeed, IMO. But it was also reckless and irresponsible to incur that risk. Defeat the enemy in detail. Don't allow them to consolidate their forces. And certainly don't help them to coordinate their forces.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:What was the risk? The forts were not at risk, there's nothing that could get past them.

As far as anyone knew. But why bank on it when Operation Raging Justice seemed to know something nobody else did? The League certainly has to be aware of how difficult it is to fight thru a fortified terminus, and the entire galaxy knows how well Manticore defends theirs. It is their cash cow! Filareta and Tsang were both billed as being able to lace their boots without assistance. And that damn DB obviously wasn't tasked to tell them about the status of the Forts. Why? It COULD have been because it knew - or powers with bigger paychecks knew - that they already had an answer to the Forts. Or perhaps some other entity was still pulling the strings and was planning that the much needed assistance with the Forts would come from "elsewhere." The MA could have nanited key personnel in the Forts or hacked what Shannon did to StateSec ships. The MA could have caused a little OOPS of their own. We don't really know what Shannon did, so we don't know that the same tactic can't be used on the Forts. But we DO know that nanites would work just fine on key personnel IN those Forts.

"What are you doing? Get those shields back up!"

"BOOM!"

"OOPS. DID WE DO THAAAT?"

ThinksMarkedly wrote:If the SLN had developed a wormhole transit technique, the GA would know through Crandall's databases or via the BSDF.

Not if the technique was a MAlign design and deployed second hand via Malign hands. And possibly accomplished by blowing the Forts from the inside. For one.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There's a danger the MAlign had developed something, but there's no way the SLN had had the time to train on it. Plus, having this technique handed to them would be incredibly difficult to explain away without outside influence. And it's an asset the MAlign would be unlikely to part with, especially since clearly TF 11.6 wasn't serious.

The MA didn't have to part with it. Their ships could have been prepositioned to light the cake with holy hell at the right moment. I don't think even the Sollies would have been dumb enough to look a gift horse in the mouth. Or in the position to.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That leaves the three dozen SDs from the BSDF and the five dozen SD(P)s under Adm. Truman in Beowulf. If there's any new technique that Tsang is bringing to the party, they'd be the ones at the pointy end. But again, Tsang's force was clearly not big enough to make difference, so it was unlikely.

Ahh, that notion depicts more of the arrogance of fools who haven't been forged in the finicky and unpredictable heat of battle who don't know better than to make such assumptions. And I'm gobsmacked. A force smaller than Tsang's could have been much more than enough to defeat what faced her. Recall the various sizes of Honor's forces throughout the years. Twenty five ships equipped with the force of Honor's current hammer would have been more than adequate to do the job. Do recall what happened when the Peeps first got a look at those godawful missiles and completely new tech never before unleashed upon the galaxy. Surprise is its own reward. I simply think it was silly and irresponsible, dangerous and unprofessional to count on the same entity you've been admitting to having the ability to quickly deploy new tech not doing exactly that just in the nick of time. The same thing you have been doing to your own enemy for years.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And besides, Tsang might have unveiled her surprises even if the D.B. had been delayed. Worse, she may have been angered if it had been detained and decide that the Klingon proverb "Heghlu'meH QaQ jajvam" applied so long as she got to fire here missiles at those traitorous Beowulfans.

Dunno what that Klingon proverb says. They never conquered the Federation spreading that much more awfuller than German language. :D

But I don't think that would have happened. Professionals don't throw their strategy out the window at the last minute. The DB that did so in the Basilisk system wasn't part of the Navy. Besides, if Tsang really had been the most powerful force, she would have been using her time wisely, to do things like, well, seed the system with her Apollo killers. Platforms that somehow neutralize Apollo's effectiveness.

That DB could have been the signal for Tsang to act. She could have changed her tactic to holding Beowulf hostage had that DB informed her the Forts were fully online, if she had an answer for Apollo but had no answer for junction defenses. That DB could have given Tsang the time she needed to show a little initiative and think on the spot. Denying the RMN time to complete its work in the MBS and join forces to defeat her in detail before she could occupy Beowulf's orbitals.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:So conclusion: the risk to Manticore was negligible; the risk to the forces in Beowulf was not reduced by allowing the D.B. through. What was the gain?

There may have been a risk to Beowulf. It wasn't as if Case Buccaneer and Parthian Shot could have been carried out on a much more deserving system. In fact, of all the systems the SLN pointed that insane inhumane rage, NONE were as deserving as Beowulf. If your opponent has a pulser on your Ally, you don't want him to receive a dispatch that says go ahead and shoot. The RMN had no way of knowing what that DB was going to set in motion. I bet the British would love to have stopped the famed Paul Revere.

A Rising Thunder, Ch. 21 wrote:“Are we sure this is a good idea, Ma’am?” [...] “Well, it just seems to me that it would have been simpler all around to sit on them,” Captain Dombroski said. “I mean, they wouldn't be going anywhere without our permission. We could’ve just kept them cooling their heels right here until it was all over one way or the other ....”
[...]
“It’d be a hard call for me either way,” she said finally. “I”m sure it was for everyone else involved, too. In fact, even though no one’s told me in so many words, I think it was ultimately the Beowulfers who made the decision, not anyone at our end. And I think the deciding factor was probably that they’re really and truly royally pissed at this Mesan Alignment. There’s no way in this universe they’re going to sit on the sidelines when we go after them, and they’re about as disgusted as anyone could possibly get with the way Kolokoltsov and the Mandarins have botched the entire situation. For that matter, they’re disgusted as hell with all the rest of the League for letting itself get turned into such a botched-up mess instead of a star nation in the first place. So this is their way of punctuating all the reasons they’re doing what they’re doing—jumping ship to sign with us, I mean. And I think they want to draw Admiral Tsang in, get her to openly commit to her part of ‘Operation Raging Justice,’ so they’ll have that additional evidence of just how fast and loose with the League Constitution Kolokoltsov’s apparatchiks are really willing to play.”
cthia wrote:But if the SLN did deploy game changing tech and Tsang's Fleet was the real hammer, then the RMN would have been screwed, considering Honor would've already had her hands full.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:As I argued above, Tsang's fleet needed not just one game-changer innovation. It needed two: one to smash SD(P)s with ease in not one but at least two battles and a second to survive a wormhole transit. What's the chance of that?

Or just one big game changer, like a weapon that neutralizes Apollo. And then help from another entity sent by Murphy.

But to answer your question. What is the chances of them developing three new pieces of tech at once? As large as an entity as they are? You mean like the small neobarbs once did. 1. Apollo. 2. Dazzlers. 3. Dragon's Teeth???

cthia wrote:There's no way in HELL the same decision would have been made facing a foe like the RHN, all else being equal.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Yes and no. There's no way the RHN would get past the Junction forts more than the SLN would. But there would be incredibly more danger to Truman and especially to especially to Holmon-Sanders. If there had been 100 hostile RHN SD(P)s sitting on the other side of a wormhole transit, it behoved the defenders to practice defeat in detail: defeat the force coming to the home system first, then transit and defeat the other before they knew the first front had been defeated.

Exactly.

We don't know that Apollo is immune. Especially from an invisible foe cutting off their communications. Or even if the SLN deployed platforms to confuse Apollo.

And again, what would have been the response to the SLN holding a pulser to the head of the RMN's new lover. Knowing the whole of the League is angry as hell over her damn infidelity.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Rule #1 of Space Warfare: don't help your enemy).

MOVE THAT OFFICER TO THE HEAD OF THE CLASS!


Summation: The RMN broke your number one rule thrice. 1. Failing to shut off lines of communication. 2. Allowing galactic coordination of force. 3. Allowing the enemy's plan to join forces. 4. Smoking crack during their most important battle causing them to become complacent and arrogant. All the things they've been accusing the Sols of, and allowing their infatuation with a new girl cloud their judgement. I think that's called thinking with the wrong head.

Nobody is allowing for the fact the SLN could have finally deployed new tech, as far as the RMN knew. Which is what they were fearing for the longest. Everybody claims the MA is a one-trick-pony. That could just as well be used to describe the RMNs most devastating tech. If Apollo and it's tech can be countered, the playing field would be leveled.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:07 am

ThinksMarkedly
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tlb wrote:You and they are are assuming that the information had to arrive at the forts and Astro Control by relay from Manticore. That would be inefficient: Manticore's gravitic arrays are enormous and ought to be reporting to multiple places, not just to one collection point.

If you don't like that, consider that the forts and Astro Control would need to have much better detection capability; so if they are not tied directly to the main detector arrays, then they would need their own smaller version.


Manticore's enormous gravitic arrays were not necessary to detect 431 SDs transiting to normal space a few million km from the hyperlimit. ANY non-myopic ship in the inner system saw that.

The point I'm trying to make is that the D.B. wasn't in the inner system. It was 7 light-hours away, where its gravitic sensors could not detect the arrival. We have textev of that, because the D.B. crew at that point had not detected the arrival. We know it was enough time to have detected, if they could have, because Astro Control had the information.

How Astro Control determined that is unexplained. It's possible they had gravitic arrays sensitive enough to read the inner system. More likely, Astro Control got instructions via Hermes relays.

That means the D.B. had no way of knowing the attack had commenced if Astro Control hadn't told them. Filareta couldn't have sent a DD there to tell them because Filareta didn't know there was going to be a D.B. waiting for orders.

cthia wrote:Exactly where in the system are we placing this "News Courier?" What "news" was it there to get? Most news vehicles pretty much become part of the developing chaos. Authorities have a difficult time containing them. They tend to take "Freedom of the Press" too seriously at times.


A news organisation not relying on Manticore's Hermes relays would have a stream of boats going back and forth from Manticore to the Junction and onwards to their destinations, and back. This one was pretending it had gathered news in the past N days and was going back to headquarters to deliver them. It was not pretending to be gathering news at the Junction, though it's not impossible that news organisations have an interchange at the Junction where they swap stories. Like Reuters and AP today.

If it was located at the junction and not in-system, it could have easily known when Filareta arrived by the increased activity, and also known the Forts were fully operational.


The increased activity only happened because Astro Control told them. If Astro Control had decided to sit on the information, no one would have known, including the D.B.

Anyway, the only way that the D.B. would have known is if there was another ship in the inner system that performed a dog-leg hyperspace jump to the Junction. That's about an hour, assuming it was already outside the hyperlimit. Which is risky, the RMN might get suspicious if it found a ship loitering and it wouldn't have missed any ship that failed to leave. It might have been in Sphinx orbit instead and that adds another hour in the message loop. Tsang was also an hour from the terminus. So the time between Filareta's arrival and Tsang's earliest possible arrival in the inner system is about four hours.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:41 am

ThinksMarkedly
Rear Admiral

Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:39 am

cthia wrote:True, they still weren't convinced of Manty superweapons. But they HAD begun to allow for the possibility, which was mentioned at both Ajay and Hypatia. Unfortunately, their best guestimates were still falling way too short. But if their splinter forces were beginning to at least allow for the possibility, certainly it should have been expected that Filareta and Tsang would as well, and might actually err much more on the side of caution. My point is that there was no way We as readers could have informed the RMN that the biggest parts of the gorilla was impotent as well.


Hypatia was the only time the SLN came away from an engagement with actual sensor readings of their own., but that hadn't happened yet. Filareta's and Tsang's actions are what led Beowulf to schedule a plebiscite on the question of secession, which in turn is what led Hypatia to organise their plebiscite.

I don't remember if Ajay had, but even if it had, there was no way for Filareta to have received the information. Ajay happened because Manticore had seized the wormholes, which means the SLN couldn't get information out fast enough. Tsang might have heard of Ajay, but that's not an engagement the SLN walked away from with any data. It wouldn't have helped her.

No, at this point, the SLN only had O'Cleary's information.

I could have sworn he received several ships added to his OOB while he was waiting. Apparently not. At any rate, I was talking about his OOB being upgraded with a few newer ships. I know that isn't possible, now, being reminded of the quickness of his attack. At any rate, the RMN still couldn't have known that.


Filareta did receive more ships and he did receive the pods of Cataphract-Cs. Which he did find strange and he knew the provenance of, partially because of how quickly it was coming.

But I specifically said "adequately prepared." Crandall ran 73 SDs into a wall in a secondary system defended by heavy cruisers. Getting 100 SDs and Cataphract-Cs against the RMN was not adequate preparation.

The fact that he was already out of the Core by the time Monica happened limits how much he could receive in reinforcement. His ships were clearly of the same generation and maintenance as Crandall's. His techniques and training were also the same. So he was doomed: the GA had 440 modern SD(P)s ready to give him a warm welcome, plus all the Apollo-based system defence missiles. His forces could have been doubled and that wouldn't have saved him.

The RMN should have allowed for it being probable. They didn't. More than that, it would have been the better tactic to let the Manties react and commit to Filareta first and let the real arm of the law hyper in late to the party. The same tactic used by the Salamander. And the Peeps.

-cut-
Stupid indeed, IMO. But it was also reckless and irresponsible to incur that risk. Defeat the enemy in detail. Don't allow them to consolidate their forces. And certainly don't help them to coordinate their forces.


I said it wasn't stupid. I said it was a non-zero risk and they had the option of not incurring it. But I argued that the risk was small, manageable and that they had reasons for taking it. That makes it non-stupid.

As far as anyone knew. But why bank on it when Operation Raging Justice seemed to know something nobody else did? The League certainly has to be aware of how difficult it is to fight thru a fortified terminus, and the entire galaxy knows how well Manticore defends theirs. It is their cash cow! Filareta and Tsang were both billed as being able to lace their boots without assistance. And that damn DB obviously wasn't tasked to tell them about the status of the Forts. Why? It COULD have been because it knew - or powers with bigger paychecks knew - that they already had an answer to the Forts. Or perhaps some other entity was still pulling the strings and was planning that the much needed assistance with the Forts would come from "elsewhere." The MA could have nanited key personnel in the Forts or hacked what Shannon did to StateSec ships. The MA could have caused a little OOPS of their own. We don't really know what Shannon did, so we don't know that the same tactic can't be used on the Forts. But we DO know that nanites would work just fine on key personnel IN those Forts.


Operation Raging Justice did not seem to know something no one else did. On the contrary, it failed to know things others saw clearly. It was based on the faulty assumption that the Manticoran system defences had been reduced to scrap by whoever had launched the Yawata Strike, as there should have been no possible way that someone could hit the space stations without getting through the defences first. That's why it was launched.

Why bank on their not having an unforeseen game-changer? Let's assume she did. What then? It wouldn't have changed the outcome to allow the D.B. through: if Tsang could have got past the 96 SDs arrayed against her with her 100 SDs and got past the forts, she would have anyway, but she couldn't save Filareta. See argument above.

Second, the BSDF got a good scan of her ships when she showed up. They knew she had nothing new in her OOB. They knew she hadn't been reinforced, because she was under constant surveillance. So the risk that she had something that could get past Truman's 60 SD(P)s and withstand fire from the forts is asymptotically equivalent to zero.

You make a good argument that the MAlign could make an appearance. If it's an appearance not coordinated with Tsang, they run the risk of getting timing wrong. As what happened with the the Beowulf stations later in the war, or even if timing was right as the Silver Bullets: clearly someone else was involved.

If it was coordinated between them:

Not if the technique was a MAlign design and deployed second hand via Malign hands. And possibly accomplished by blowing the Forts from the inside. For one.


Could she have something aboard her ships, given by the MAlign? I again rate this as near zero probability and assume it's the same conclusion that GA planners came to. There's no way such a technique could remain a secret, not if Tsang trained her ships on using it. It would also have loudly screamed "someone else is involved," which the MAlign was trying to avoid.

The MA didn't have to part with it. Their ships could have been prepositioned to light the cake with holy hell at the right moment. I don't think even the Sollies would have been dumb enough to look a gift horse in the mouth. Or in the position to.


This is only 3 months since the Yawata Strike. The defenders were scanning anything larger than a dust in the proximity of the Junction. Plus the forts had their bubblewalls up, which they had the time to do in all forts not just the ready ones because the defenders knew about Filareta's arrival before any hostile force near the Junction could know. The chance that the MAlign could sneak bombs into multiple military installations to blow them up from the inside is zero. Even if that happened, the RMN could reinforce the terminus before Tsang could bring enough ships through to hold it (or any ships at all!). And that's assuming she could get past Truman in the first place.

The Sollies would gladly accept the gift, I agree. But it would still lead to the unavoidable conclusion that someone else was involved, which is exactly what Manticore and Haven had been claiming.

Ahh, that notion depicts more of the arrogance of fools who haven't been forged in the finicky and unpredictable heat of battle who don't know better than to make such assumptions. And I'm gobsmacked. A force smaller than Tsang's could have been much more than enough to defeat what faced her. Recall the various sizes of Honor's forces throughout the years. Twenty five ships equipped with the force of Honor's current hammer would have been more than adequate to do the job. Do recall what happened when the Peeps first got a look at those godawful missiles and completely new tech never before unleashed upon the galaxy. Surprise is its own reward. I simply think it was silly and irresponsible, dangerous and unprofessional to count on the same entity you've been admitting to having the ability to quickly deploy new tech not doing exactly that just in the nick of time. The same thing you have been doing to your own enemy for years.


First of all, let me apologise. When I wrote that TF 11.6 was clearly not serious, I was mis-remembering her OOB. I recalled that she had 37 SDs. That's less than one tenth of what Filareta had. So if Filareta with 431 couldn't get the job done, 37 more 4 hours later wouldn't make a difference.

But she actually had 100 SDs. That's a respectable force. So the argument that the force wasn't serious falls through.

However, see the argument above that the RMN knew exactly what Tsang was bringing to the party. That still stands. More below on the possibility of surprises.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And besides, Tsang might have unveiled her surprises even if the D.B. had been delayed. Worse, she may have been angered if it had been detained and decide that the Klingon proverb "Heghlu'meH QaQ jajvam" applied so long as she got to fire here missiles at those traitorous Beowulfans.

Dunno what that Klingon proverb says. They never conquered the Federation spreading that much more awfuller than German language. :D


"Today is a good day to die." Because she engaged, she was clearly going to die.

But I don't think that would have happened. Professionals don't throw their strategy out the window at the last minute.


What part of the chapters paints her in any light that resembles as professional?

This is not Crandall arriving unannounced. Tsang contacted the BSDF to let them know of her intentions. In doing that, she identified herself, allowing the intelligence services to look up her file, and she showed her arrogance, confirming those files.

The DB that did so in the Basilisk system wasn't part of the Navy. Besides, if Tsang really had been the most powerful force, she would have been using her time wisely, to do things like, well, seed the system with her Apollo killers. Platforms that somehow neutralize Apollo's effectiveness.


Agreed, if she had been the lynchpin force. She did no such thing. Conclusion: she wasn't the lynchpin.

Her forces were under constant surveillance by Ghost Riders. The defenders knew she wasn't preparing any surprises outside the ships.

That DB could have been the signal for Tsang to act. She could have changed her tactic to holding Beowulf hostage had that DB informed her the Forts were fully online, if she had an answer for Apollo but had no answer for junction defenses. That DB could have given Tsang the time she needed to show a little initiative and think on the spot. Denying the RMN time to complete its work in the MBS and join forces to defeat her in detail before she could occupy Beowulf's orbitals.


I don't see how she could do anything if she didn't have an answer to both Apollo missiles and the forts. If she could deploy anti-Apollo defences within the 3 or 4 minutes Truman's missiles would take to arrive, at best she would survive against Truman. That makes no difference to what's happening in the MBS.

There may have been a risk to Beowulf. It wasn't as if Case Buccaneer and Parthian Shot could have been carried out on a much more deserving system. In fact, of all the systems the SLN pointed that insane inhumane rage, NONE were as deserving as Beowulf. If your opponent has a pulser on your Ally, you don't want him to receive a dispatch that says go ahead and shoot. The RMN had no way of knowing what that DB was going to set in motion. I bet the British would love to have stopped the famed Paul Revere.


Beowulf is not your run-of-the-mill defenceless system. Case Buccaneer was only applied against those. That's a bully tactic: bullies never pick on those that fight back. Beowulf had the largest system defence force in the entire SL. And what would Tsang do against the Beowulf industry and habitat from a couple of light-hours away? Fire two-stage Cataphracts with 8 hours of ballistic time?

It's not that there was no risk. It's that the risk was manageable.

Or just one big game changer, like a weapon that neutralizes Apollo. And then help from another entity sent by Murphy.


That's two. See above for arguments on why uncoordinated help is not in the MAlign's interests.

But to answer your question. What is the chances of them developing three new pieces of tech at once? As large as an entity as they are? You mean like the small neobarbs once did. 1. Apollo. 2. Dazzlers. 3. Dragon's Teeth???


There's an entire novel about how those things took decades to produce (House of Steel). They didn't turn up overnight. They also came from a nation with a history of innovation and that had been under existential threat for decades. Inventing game-changing techniques is not in the SLN's grain, nor was it fast when it did anything.

It also leaked like a sieve. Beowulf would have known if such a thing existed, even if it wasn't in Crandall's databases. And as I argued, her ships were under constant surveillance from the moment she arrived: she had the same ships that Crandall did.

And again, what would have been the response to the SLN holding a pulser to the head of the RMN's new lover. Knowing the whole of the League is angry as hell over her damn infidelity.


The proper answer is to prevent the situation from happening in the first place. Which they had the time to do. Tsang was not in a position to threaten Beowulf before Truman and the BSDF overwhelmed her.

Besides, "the whole of the League is angry" is not the case, since Beowulf has not declared independence yet. No one is angry at Beowulf. It's Tsang's and Filareta's actions that provide the proximate cause for the plebiscite, which the Mandarin-friendly media uses to stir up hate.

Summation: The RMN broke your number one rule thrice. 1. Failing to shut off lines of communication. 2. Allowing galactic coordination of force. 3. Allowing the enemy's plan to join forces. 4. Smoking crack during their most important battle causing them to become complacent and arrogant. All the things they've been accusing the Sols of, and allowing their infatuation with a new girl cloud their judgement. I think that's called thinking with the wrong head.


Yes, but Rule #1 of Space Warfare: don't interfere with the enemy while he’s in the process of making a mistake (attributed to Napoleon). Tsang's presence and intention to transit provided Beowulf with the golden opportunity to show that the Mandarins were in violation of the League Constitution.

Nobody is allowing for the fact the SLN could have finally deployed new tech, as far as the RMN knew. Which is what they were fearing for the longest. Everybody claims the MA is a one-trick-pony. That could just as well be used to describe the RMNs most devastating tech. If Apollo and it's tech can be countered, the playing field would be leveled.


They allowed for it. The conclusion was that the benefits of incurring the risk were worth the outcome. You can't let all possible risks paralyse you.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:19 pm

Jonathan_S
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cthia wrote:There may have been a risk to Beowulf. It wasn't as if Case Buccaneer and Parthian Shot could have been carried out on a much more deserving system.
Both of those (not to be confused with the earlier contingency plans, also called Buccaneer, for covert raiding in the verge to encourage systems to accept OFS "protection") were developed after Fileretta lost so badly at Manticore. That doesn't eliminate the possibility that Tsang might make some move against Beowulf. But the GA's grand strategy (aka the Harrington strategy) was to fragment the League. Tsang acting openly against Beowulf assists that strategic goal. That's why IMO they allowed the DB through - to let the SLN shoot themselves in the foot by publicly acting far outside the law against a very highly regarded, and founding member, of the Solarian League.

You even quoted a speculation about using Tsang's actions as "additional evidence of just how fast and loose with the League Constitution Kolokoltsov’s apparatchiks are really willing to play"

cthia wrote:Or just one big game changer, like a weapon that neutralizes Apollo.
The GA didn't need Apollo to defeat Tsang or Fileretta; normal MDMs were more than sufficient. In fact, weren't the missiles fired at Fileretta primarily Havenite ones, since they could replace them as their missile factories were untouched? So those wouldn't even have been Apollo capable.

cthia wrote:What is the chances of them developing three new pieces of tech at once? As large as an entity as they are? You mean like the small neobarbs once did. 1. Apollo. 2. Dazzlers. 3. Dragon's Teeth???
Umm... In addition to ThinksMarkedly's point that they were the separate results of decades of R&D Dazzler's and Dragon's Teeth were refinements of existing ECM capabilities married to the raw power of the Mk23's microfusion power plant. Those were developed and deployed years before Apollo was. Hardly developed, or released, all "at once".

ThinksMarkedly wrote:But she actually had 100 SDs. That's a respectable force. So the argument that the force wasn't serious falls through.
But 100 SD that she can either put through the terminus basically 25 at a time every 13 hours; or one at a time every 72 seconds. 25 isn't a respectable force against the Junction defenses, but one every 72 seconds isn't survivable either. And that's assuming no significant losses fighting through the Beowulf SDF and Truman's 60 SD(P)s.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Brigade XO   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:11 pm

Brigade XO
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Admiral Tsang shows up by Beowulf after another shows up on an individual mission to tell Beowulf essentialy Tsang is comming and will be transiting the wormhole to the Junction

Admiral Tsang doesn't head for an orbit near Beowulf, she shows up elcewehre and the BSDF with all (or almost all) of the BSFD commander in charge and tells Admiral Tsang that if she attempts to force transit the BSFD will open fire and engage. So Beowulf knows what Tsang is going to do. They also have the argument and position statement clearly framed: NO state of war exists between SL and SEM and what Admiral Tsang (and her orders) intend is NOT LEGAL to compel Beowulf's assistance or aquiesence.
And then Admiral Tsang takes up a position NOT in the Beowulf system but out sort of close to the wormhole but well out of traffic to await the next step--specific notification that Fillerta has arrived at the Manticore systems and is engaged.
So just exactly does Admiral Tsang think is going to happen while she is waiting? That nobody is going to mention any of this to Manticore or nobody is going to notice her fleet?

Now, at this moment in time, the entire situation has NOT yet gone to hell between Beowulf and SL.
There is NO mention nor hint that Admiral Tsang has ANY other orders, including she is not being told (with what she has in-hand) that if she encounters any resistance or objection from Beowuld that she is supposed to take her 100 or so SLN SD and escorts into the Beowulf system and secure planet Beowulf's orbitals and take posession of the system and government on behalf of the SL (for any reason). There is NO Operation Buccaneer at this point. The Mandarins (at no level mentioned) know that Beowulf is going to balk at letting Admiral Tsang do as she is ordered nor any move to punish Beowulf.

So there is a DB waiting for a disturbance that will throw a hexapuma into the Junction traffic and generaly indicate (even if there is no formal announcement) that there is a truly massive problem (and just who would expect someone other than Fillerta to show up with an attack on the Manticore Binary System) and run to get Tsang.

I suppose this particular brainstorm was orchestrated by Alignment agents to not so much get teh BSDF (along with Admiral Tsang's force) mangled before Tsang's still wormhole transit capable go charging into a fully allert Junction Defence Network and get obliterated, as just to get Tsang's force slaughtered post transit. Nobody with the SL or SLN has noticed the truly massive volume of shipping between Beowulf and Manticore to let Manticore start trying to rebuild orbital infrastructure (and the military production capacity ) post Oyster Bay? That one Admiral Tsang's fleet takes a run at the Sigma Draconis Wormhole, that nobody in the local Astro Control is going to send messages with each deparing (to the Junction) transport and probaby a local military or even Astro Control Corporation (it is a joint venture between Beowulf and Manticore) DB?
Is it just possible that the Beowulf end of the wormhole has a signifant defensive component- some of it BSDF if not Forts and other things like minefields and a few armed ships as that wormhole would reasonably been considered a possible target for Haven to remove it as a logistic point for Manticore and/or that if Haven did conquer Manticore, Beowulf would have wanted to hold onto the terminus long enough to get SLN assistance in keeping it? And, at this point, would it not also have been unreasonable that MANTICORE would have added a few warships to bolster Beowulf's security on the terminus?

Who would have gone out of their way to not mention to Admiral Tsang any of this was possible? Does NOBODY in the SL or SLN have any idea of what is sitting defensively on a permanent basis around the Junction? Not even passive scans on SL flagged ships from much earlier or on ships operating under other flags who have perhaps military level passive scanning equipment and be able to see at last some of what is active -other than commercial traffic- around the Junction and warehouses?

Admiral Tsang as quite a bit more than startled to discover that there was that massive RMN taskforce essentialy uncloaking really dam close and -I think mentioning to her that the missile range and effectiveness that she has no doubt been briefed about reguarding Admiral Crandal is, in fact, true and the RMN has her locked up and in range now (and if this starts you are NOT within your engagement range with any weapon and we you are at a signifcant disadvantage in terms of numbers and sizes of ships ....say hello to our RDs and yes we can see the warts on your ass......)

Humm......going to get her ass handed to her even if she can do significant damage to BOTH sets of forces arrayed against her --and she has to figure that they will be cooperating and coordinating--- and then she will have to take what ships who can make a wormhole transit though a DEFENDED and probably seriously angry RMN contingent sitting on top of the exit lane and can lock her up and fire before she can see what's there and she will be moving like an arthritic slug when her ships compleat the transit and have NO defences on-line.
Bugger that.......she's going back to Sol to consult with higher authority :)
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:39 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:And then Admiral Tsang takes up a position NOT in the Beowulf system but out sort of close to the wormhole but well out of traffic to await the next step--specific notification that Fillerta has arrived at the Manticore systems and is engaged.
So just exactly does Admiral Tsang think is going to happen while she is waiting? That nobody is going to mention any of this to Manticore or nobody is going to notice her fleet?


She wasn't thinking. She communicated with the BSDF only and at this point wasn't thinking that the BSDF would have let Manticore know. But even then, that's stupid: any passing ship with half a sensor would have picked up the translation of 100 SDs. Her actions should not have relied on her presence being a secret.

So there is a DB waiting for a disturbance that will throw a hexapuma into the Junction traffic and generaly indicate (even if there is no formal announcement) that there is a truly massive problem (and just who would expect someone other than Fillerta to show up with an attack on the Manticore Binary System) and run to get Tsang.


Mind you that at this point, not only did Manticore know that Filareta was coming, the SL knew Manticore knew because Manticore had explicitly and publicly asked the SL government to send a dispatch boat to wait in Manticore and tell Filareta as soon as he arrived to go back. He was mentioned by name.

I suppose this particular brainstorm was orchestrated by Alignment agents to not so much get teh BSDF (along with Admiral Tsang's force) mangled before Tsang's still wormhole transit capable go charging into a fully allert Junction Defence Network and get obliterated, as just to get Tsang's force slaughtered post transit. Nobody with the SL or SLN has noticed the truly massive volume of shipping between Beowulf and Manticore to let Manticore start trying to rebuild orbital infrastructure (and the military production capacity ) post Oyster Bay? That one Admiral Tsang's fleet takes a run at the Sigma Draconis Wormhole, that nobody in the local Astro Control is going to send messages with each deparing (to the Junction) transport and probaby a local military or even Astro Control Corporation (it is a joint venture between Beowulf and Manticore) DB?


This ill-conceived plan had absolutely no other objective than make SL personnel die transiting to Manticore. Oh, it had a bonus benefit of going through the BSDF if those decided to stand in their way, but 24 SDs against 100 of basically the same generation speaks for itself (I assume the BSDF would leave one third of their forces in the inner system). But even that couldn't be counted on.

You're right and telling that the Junction defences were intact was easy. Unlike the inner system defences, which are mostly stealthed and could be obscured by the amount of debris generated by the stations breaking up, the defences at the Junction are visible. They are deterrent. Moreover, ANYONE that was close to the Junction during the Strike could vouch for there being no attack and no debris in the vicinity. This is not relying on Manticore's word, but on a thousand independent sources if they cared to try.

cthia is arguing that the GA couldn't afford to assume Tsang was that stupid to try and transit with nothing new in her arsenal. But Tsang knew she didn't have anything new. How in the Galaxy was she planning on transiting, without ever scouting ahead?

The only answer I have is: she wasn't thinking. She left her brain powered off the moment she boarded her flagship. For such a monumental blunder, she out-Bynged Josef Byng. She gets the trophy for stupidest SL flag officer, hands down. The only reason she didn't get the Darwin Award like Byng did is that she didn't die. Byng was "just" arrogant, overconfident, dim, and a poor officer; Tsang was stupid.

Admiral Tsang as quite a bit more than startled to discover that there was that massive RMN taskforce essentialy uncloaking really dam close and -I think mentioning to her that the missile range and effectiveness that she has no doubt been briefed about reguarding Admiral Crandal is, in fact, true and the RMN has her locked up and in range now (and if this starts you are NOT within your engagement range with any weapon and we you are at a signifcant disadvantage in terms of numbers and sizes of ships ....say hello to our RDs and yes we can see the warts on your ass......)


She was startled by the GA having 60 SD(P)s there at all. As I said above, Manticore had been saying they knew Filareta was coming with 400+ SDs, so Tsang wouldn't be thinking she caught the GA unprepared (then again, they may have failed to tell her). So when 60 of the deadliest ships in the Galaxy unstealth on her side of the Junction, she knows that the GA could spare 60 ships.

Think about it. The GA readied 500 SD(P)s for receiving Operation Raging Justice plus however many CLACs, against 531 of the SLN. (And we don't know if there was any reserve near the Junction or in Trevor's Star)
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by fallsfromtrees   » Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:15 pm

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The SLN thought they had a solution for the forts - they were supposed to have been totally destroyed by whoever trashed the Manticore system (Oyster Bay), which was supposed to have also destroyed all of the system defenses. Bad assumption, but they really didn't think there was any defense left - that's why they chose to attack when they did.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by tlb   » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:51 am

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fallsfromtrees wrote:The SLN thought they had a solution for the forts - they were supposed to have been totally destroyed by whoever trashed the Manticore system (Oyster Bay), which was supposed to have also destroyed all of the system defenses. Bad assumption, but they really didn't think there was any defense left - that's why they chose to attack when they did.

If the SLN really believed all of that, then what did they believe kept the unknown attackers from conquering all of Manticore? The only explanation that I can conceive, if we require the attack to be manned, is that the attackers were a suicide mission and only succeeded by killing all of themselves in the attempt. But that is ridiculous, because it would have left debris that could identify the assailants and the methods they used. Also it is hard to believe that an unknown force would fight until they were all dead.

So the only remaining, logical explanation is that the fighting was done by autonomous machines. Since it is likely that even Solarian ships had used the wormhole junction after the attack (that lone DB cannot be the only one), everyone should know that its defenses were intact. So why did they allow themselves to be persuaded that the attackers had to fight their way in; when a stealth ballistic approach was also possible?
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Robert_A_Woodward   » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:07 am

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tlb wrote:
fallsfromtrees wrote:The SLN thought they had a solution for the forts - they were supposed to have been totally destroyed by whoever trashed the Manticore system (Oyster Bay), which was supposed to have also destroyed all of the system defenses. Bad assumption, but they really didn't think there was any defense left - that's why they chose to attack when they did.

If the SLN really believed all of that, then what did they believe kept the unknown attackers from conquering all of Manticore? The only explanation that I can conceive, if we require the attack to be manned, is that the attackers were a suicide mission and only succeeded by killing all of themselves in the attempt. But that is ridiculous, because it would have left debris that could identify the assailants and the methods they used. Also it is hard to believe that an unknown force would fight until they were all dead.

So the only remaining, logical explanation is that the fighting was done by autonomous machines. Since it is likely that even Solarian ships had used the wormhole junction after the attack (that lone DB cannot be the only one), everyone should know that its defenses were intact. So why did they allow themselves to be persuaded that the attackers had to fight their way in; when a stealth ballistic approach was also possible?


Asking that question to several people in the upper levels of the SLN bureaucracy would be informative, but, alas, they died recently of heart attacks/brain aneurysms.
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Beowulf was bad.
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