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Did the MBS corner the market on trade?

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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by cthia   » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:52 am

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cthia wrote:You know, I wonder if Project Gram and the incredible tech that has come out of it, has enabled breakthroughs in the private sector, made possible by the declassification of certain research. Would such products which are available to the SK's private sector also be made available to all of the SK's allies and newly acquired territories?

It seems like techno-nerds all over the galaxy would visit the SK, who's sole job is to research both common and advanced technologies. Aren't there certain US products that cannot be exported to other countries?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I have no doubt the answer is yes. Metallurgy and composite materials engineering resulting from the study of better armour; better grav controls lead to civilian improvements; the compact fission and fusion reactors once declassified should revolutionise small craft endurance too.

And whenever the FTL communicators get declassified, it'll spawn a whole new industry. I actually expect the RMN has been working with civilian companies for civilian applications on this. The genie is out of the bag, so everyone knows it will happen. Better to ensure it's a Manticoran company that gets first mover advantage.

Jonathan_S wrote:Edit - I see ThinksMarkedly tackled how useful it might be to have these declassified; and rated them somewhat higher than I did. While I mostly tackled whether they'd be declassified anytime soon.

Most, probably all, of Gram would still be classified and restricted to the military. And the issue with export control is that it's fine if you're trying to prevent someone from buying a lot of your stuff to use in ways you disapprove of, but it doesn't stop them from buying it to reverse engineer within your territory. And it's hard to prevent at least a little export controller material from getting smuggled out. So you have to figure that the details behind the functionality of items that are export controlled but otherwise available to the domestic civilian market will rapidly leak to any motivated enemy or competitor. So definitely not to be risked lightly.

It's not clear exactly which bits of advanced tech came out of Gram - but let's attribute it all there and look at the impacts of releasing it.

* Baffles, enabling true MDMs. The grav shielding might have some odd civilian use I'm not envisioning but its militarily critical and while both Haven and the Andies figured out the trick it's still a very valuable secret and not to be shared.

* Micro-fusion plans, enabling the power budgets of the new dazzler & dragon's teeth ECM warheads and the unprecedented endurance of the Ghost Rider recon drones. Seems too poorly shielded for most civilian use and unnecessary in shuttles or starships. Offers a significant military advantage and so far no-one outside Manticore appears to have duplicated it. May have some practical civilian uses but that's not enough IMHO to justify releasing it.

* LAC fission plants. In my opinion the least sensitive tech since once the idea is out there it's no great engineering challenge to match up century old designs with modern rad shielding make churning some out. But I'm not sure where the use would be that would justify the civilian radioactive waste and meltdown concerns just to get reduced fuel consumption at moderate peak power levels.

* FTL comms, high bandwidth FTL comms, FTL fire control. One gives a head starts into the next. The communication is useful for civilians within a planetary systems but the risk to the engineering details getting out still argues to keep the actual designs and hardware under tight government control while possibly letting civilian comm traffic use the hardware (Hermes buoys)

* Beta-squared nodes. Most useful for small in-system civilian runabouts that, like old LACs, couldn't afford the mass/volume for full power old-style nodes. But that doesn't seem a compelling reason to release something that helps small warships cram in significantly more fighting potential. (also not clear to what extent the mass reductions can be separated from the FTL signalling mentioned above - since Shrikes are specifically noted to have high bandwidth FTL due to their Beta-squared nodes). Freighters and Liners would get some benefit from Beta-squared node; but not a huge benefit (not like a little destroyer or CL that's trying to cram in everything it can within a limited displacement)

* Improved compensators (probably didn't fall under Gram) - somewhat useful in slightly cutting down hyper transit times and making it harder for pirates to intercept. But most civilian ship transit time is spent at max velocity where the compenstor doesn't help. And since they rarely justify spending for military grade rad shielding or hyper generators; either of which would provide far more transit time reduction than an improved compensator. Can't see this getting released to most civilians.

* Improved stealth - no civilian use could justify releasing this.

* Improved endurance missile nodes - nothing civilian would use these. So even though several outside governments seem to have independently reproduced this I don't see any upside to making the tech public.

* Bow walls - no legit civilian use. So even though at least Haven, and possibly the Andies had independently figured out the trick, there doesn't seem any upside to releasing this.

Did I forget any major breakthroughs?

Many of these have limited to no civilian use I can see to offset the military risk of releasing them. And the ones that do have civilian uses still seem far to risky to make public yet.


Incredible insight guys! Talk about giving good mind! It is erotic! :)

Jonathan, your post reads like a set of convenient Cliff Notes. Excellent, and brilliant!

Advanced materials is the first area I thought of, and you've covered that. I originally thought materials able to withstand high temperatures could have come from the reactor technology before being informed that high temperature containment is accomplished via gravity. Which could lead to safer reactors down on-planet? It could also lead to specialized furnaces capable of much higher temperatures. I harken back to a time Challenger was engineering the tiles comprising it's external heat shields. I would imagine the heat produced from atmospheric reentry is still a concern.

ThinksMarkedly also covered reactors.

I also considered warship technology filtering down to civilian ships making them more safe. Like private yachts and bus loads full of students on expeditions.

Long time ago I envisioned the Dazzlers being used as the technology behind massive fireworks displays like our own Fourth of July seen over entire Hemispheres, for those who can't make it into space to witness the spectacle on space stations or convertible aircars. LOL For the enjoyment of baby Abigails and Claytons everywhere staring up into space.

But, could anything declassified for the private sector be mandated to remain locally? No exports? Can anything be expected to be guarded locally for non-export in the Honorverse?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:14 pm

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Bases and stations and things in between

Gregor A was and is a set of facilities orbiting relative to the terminus and not, apparenlty the planetless star. It may or may not have much of an orbital repair facility but it probably does have engineering ships bases (in the sence is that is where they go back to if they have to go somewhere to fix a ship). It would also have both civilian facilities- and probably repair ability along with a RMN facility for the staff and focal point for the Station Commander. Thats were the spares were, the storage for weapons, personel point for assignments/rotations other than with a ship going back to Manticore.

What the RMN did for getting work done on ships at systems in the Silesian Confederacy doesn't seem to be spelled out excpt limp/cycle back to Greagor-A for military supplies and repairs/upgrades if they couldn't use the terminus to get back to Manticore and buy consumables etc in the ConFed or indpendent systems. And then came the Marsh System with Sidemore. Inhabited planet, NOT in Silesia (just the edge of the cluster) concerned more the the Andermani's than ConFed and just liberated by Harrington from Warnecki....and now you have a full-up RMN base and Yard as the operational center next to Silesia but not in Silesia and a very nice planet for R&R and local population that works out well with support industries etc.

Linx Terminus has -now- fortresses and formal RMN detachemnt there but the Base that is in formation is at Spindle. That's the Quadrant Center for SEM with the Governor and before the reatification of the admission, it was the naval logistics location with at least one engineering ship for repairs. The orbital faciiities will follow incluiding yard facilites for the Navy and where the logistics will be managed/stored - in freighters or ammuntion ships if nowhere elce- till proper things are built.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:43 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Linx Terminus has -now- fortresses and formal RMN detachemnt there but the Base that is in formation is at Spindle. That's the Quadrant Center for SEM with the Governor and before the reatification of the admission, it was the naval logistics location with at least one engineering ship for repairs. The orbital faciiities will follow incluiding yard facilites for the Navy and where the logistics will be managed/stored - in freighters or ammuntion ships if nowhere elce- till proper things are built.
Though I have to assume that as traffic from that side of the Shell starts adjusting to having the Lynx terminus into the wormhole network that the terminus itself will eventually grow warehousing (because it's cheaper for League and independent freighters to ship to/from the warehouse and the Manticoran bottoms haul material through the Junction). And the Manti freighters doing tight terminus to terminus runs aren't going to want to waste the time flying over the Spindle and back.

That terminus adjacent warehousing will invetable grow some support stations, temporary housing, bars and other R&R, and probably some level of civilian maintenance/repair/resupply.

Given the rebuilding that's happening at Manticore all that probably got delayed, but give it 15-20 years and there will probably be a sizable civilian infrastructure near the terminus. (Possibly sooner if the Cluster systems can build less capable but adequate warehousing and civilian stations there out of resources that aren't up to providing significant help rebuilding Manticore's higher end orbital infrastructure)
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:11 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:Given the rebuilding that's happening at Manticore all that probably got delayed, but give it 15-20 years and there will probably be a sizable civilian infrastructure near the terminus. (Possibly sooner if the Cluster systems can build less capable but adequate warehousing and civilian stations there out of resources that aren't up to providing significant help rebuilding Manticore's higher end orbital infrastructure)


Warehousing at the Lynx Terminus doesn't have to be a Crown investment. With the market opportunity, there are probably enough companies with deep enough pockets and access to engineering resources that would build them for a 20-year concession.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:54 am

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Originally posted in the wrong thread. Begs dozens of pardons for the transplant.

cthia wrote:If the SLN is grounded, who is controlling their terminus?

Theemile wrote:Which Terminus?

cthia wrote:Any of them. They can't leave their system. Having to remain on one side of a door without opening it is beyond the capability of humans. And, who will escort their freighters?

Theemile wrote:They can't leave SL space, not SL systems. As long as the terminus (and wormhole) is associated with an SL system, why would they not be able to police it?

And beyond the attempt to force the closed wormhole at Zunker, when have we ever seen a SLN ship escort a freighter?

Probably never. But they're going to have to now. They've lost their edge. The same pirates they've supported may now be living in a system apart from the SL. Nothing personal, but we still need to eat. And SL freighters are conveniently naked. The previous emperor now wears no clothes. The pirates are going to show him he's naked.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Dauntless   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:20 am

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most pirates in SL/verge space were SLN/OFS mercs pretending to be pirates.

Silesa is a weird exception, something to do with the fact that almost everybody in power, civilian and military was corrupt or just didn't care.

so in general, no the SLN won't start escorting freighters
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Theemile   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:29 am

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cthia wrote:Originally posted in the wrong thread. Begs dozens of pardons for the transplant.

cthia wrote:If the SLN is grounded, who is controlling their terminus?

Theemile wrote:Which Terminus?

cthia wrote:Any of them. They can't leave their system. Having to remain on one side of a door without opening it is beyond the capability of humans. And, who will escort their freighters?

Theemile wrote:They can't leave SL space, not SL systems. As long as the terminus (and wormhole) is associated with an SL system, why would they not be able to police it?

And beyond the attempt to force the closed wormhole at Zunker, when have we ever seen a SLN ship escort a freighter?

Probably never. But they're going to have to now. They've lost their edge. The same pirates they've supported may now be living in a system apart from the SL. Nothing personal, but we still need to eat. And SL freighters are conveniently naked. The previous emperor now wears no clothes. The pirates are going to show him he's naked.


The SL never supported pirates... the SLN WAS the pirates. Case Buccaneer, or whatever it was called, was SLN warships using ECM and false transmitters to pretend to be pirates, so they could forcibly effect politics in regions of the verge without being seen "doing it themselves".

Come on, why would "Pirate Dan" take every traffic and weather satellite in a system after he destroyed their navy and their cargo station? Not because he would make $$ off them, not because he got his jollies being a jerk, no. If he was a real pirate, every regional navy would hunt someone like that down.

The reason he did that was because he was an SLN officer with SLN ships and a scorched earth policy would force the planetary government to cuddle up to the OFS and the Transstellars for protection and "prosperity".
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:26 am

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:lol:

Absolutely. They were the pirates. But, had they fairly recently become the ROOT of piracy? In my original post I included a passage which HoS says the SL also supported Transtellars who operated by piracy. Consider what a huge conglomerate can accomplish here on Earth, if they could operate a department of piracy against it's competition, with the blessing of its own country.

These Transtellars were originally all a part of the SL. With the rampant domino effect of secessions, any particular Transtellar may no longer be a part of the SL. They may have been located outside of the Core League anyway, because off-planet operations would be cheaper, via cheaper labor, and less restrictive laws, etc. Much of the same reasons American companies choose to seek out foreign soil.

Now, these same Transtellars would continue to be as selfish and self centered as they always were. They no longer owe allegiance to a League they are no longer a part. Plus the SL may no longer wish to trade with seceded planets. That may cause a problem if equipment and resources needed by those Transtellars are manufactured within the Core planets. So what's a Transtellar to do?

Take from the rich and give to the richer. It isn't personal, it's just business. It is not going to continue to be business as usual for the League, across the board.

You have to be careful releasing dangers into the wild. One day those dangers can come back home to roost.

You just have to wonder and ask yourself just how far [SL and Transtellar]-sponsored piracy branched out all over the galaxy.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:54 am

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cthia wrote::lol:

Absolutely. They were the pirates. But, had they fairly recently become the ROOT of piracy? In my original post I included a passage which HoS says the SL also supported Transtellars who operated by piracy. Consider what a huge conglomerate can accomplish here on Earth, if they could operate a department of piracy against it's competition, with the blessing of its own country.

These Transtellars were originally all a part of the SL. With the rampant domino effect of secessions, any particular Transtellar may no longer be a part of the SL. They may have been located outside of the Core League anyway, because off-planet operations would be cheaper, via cheaper labor, and less restrictive laws, etc. Much of the same reasons American companies choose to seek out foreign soil.

Now, these same Transtellars would continue to be as selfish and self centered as they always were. They no longer owe allegiance to a League they are no longer a part. Plus the SL may no longer wish to trade with seceded planets. That may cause a problem if equipment and resources needed by those Transtellars are manufactured within the Core planets. So what's a Transtellar to do?

Take from the rich and give to the richer. It isn't personal, it's just business. It is not going to continue to be business as usual for the League, across the board.

You have to be careful releasing dangers into the wild. One day those dangers can come back home to roost.

You just have to wonder and ask yourself just how far [SL and Transtellar]-sponsored piracy branched out all over the galaxy.
Still the Transtellars weren't supporting piracy for kicks. They weren't even supporting it because the captured loot was a good return on investment. They were supporting it because it let OFS take a system over and then turn around and give the Transtellar a sweetheart monopoly deal that was good return on investment.

Now they don't have the OFS to do the planetary occupation for them. They could still try to do it themselves but that's risky since they don't have the 800 lbs gorilla for backing should their freebootery attract the unfriendly attention of someone with a real navy.

There doesn't seem to be significant upside to even independent transtellar turning lose a wave of undirected piracy across all of space. It's too likely to, sooner or later, come to the attention of Manticore who might decide its best cut off at the head. The return on the piracy isn't likely to be high enough to justify the risk of losing their legitimate business.

That doesn't say that they'll become angels. Just that any piracy or freebooting expeditions they quietly fund will likely be very carefully targeted at systems far enough away from prying eyes that their involvement is unlikely to be noticed. Which in turn means that they won't be driving a widespread outbreak in piracy (probably performing less than when OFS was in play)

Now there will be true warlords and pirates, not backed by transtellars. But the harsh economics of piracy means you need a fairly hospitable environment to make a go of it (even if you steal your pirate ship). Missiles, maintenance, and supplies aren't cheap so you need a way to fence your loot, suppliers and yards willing to work with known or suspected pirates (both of which usually require a system government willing to turn a blind eye) or you end up with a non-functioning ship in pretty short order.
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Re: Did the MBS corner the market on trade?
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:49 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
cthia wrote::lol:

Absolutely. They were the pirates. But, had they fairly recently become the ROOT of piracy? In my original post I included a passage which HoS says the SL also supported Transtellars who operated by piracy. Consider what a huge conglomerate can accomplish here on Earth, if they could operate a department of piracy against it's competition, with the blessing of its own country.

These Transtellars were originally all a part of the SL. With the rampant domino effect of secessions, any particular Transtellar may no longer be a part of the SL. They may have been located outside of the Core League anyway, because off-planet operations would be cheaper, via cheaper labor, and less restrictive laws, etc. Much of the same reasons American companies choose to seek out foreign soil.

Now, these same Transtellars would continue to be as selfish and self centered as they always were. They no longer owe allegiance to a League they are no longer a part. Plus the SL may no longer wish to trade with seceded planets. That may cause a problem if equipment and resources needed by those Transtellars are manufactured within the Core planets. So what's a Transtellar to do?

Take from the rich and give to the richer. It isn't personal, it's just business. It is not going to continue to be business as usual for the League, across the board.

You have to be careful releasing dangers into the wild. One day those dangers can come back home to roost.

You just have to wonder and ask yourself just how far [SL and Transtellar]-sponsored piracy branched out all over the galaxy.

Still the Transtellars weren't supporting piracy for kicks. They weren't even supporting it because the captured loot was a good return on investment. They were supporting it because it let OFS take a system over and then turn around and give the Transtellar a sweetheart monopoly deal that was good return on investment.

Now they don't have the OFS to do the planetary occupation for them. They could still try to do it themselves but that's risky since they don't have the 800 lbs gorilla for backing should their freebootery attract the unfriendly attention of someone with a real navy.

There doesn't seem to be significant upside to even independent transtellar turning lose a wave of undirected piracy across all of space. It's too likely to, sooner or later, come to the attention of Manticore who might decide its best cut off at the head. The return on the piracy isn't likely to be high enough to justify the risk of losing their legitimate business.

That doesn't say that they'll become angels. Just that any piracy or freebooting expeditions they quietly fund will likely be very carefully targeted at systems far enough away from prying eyes that their involvement is unlikely to be noticed. Which in turn means that they won't be driving a widespread outbreak in piracy (probably performing less than when OFS was in play)

Now there will be true warlords and pirates, not backed by transtellars. But the harsh economics of piracy means you need a fairly hospitable environment to make a go of it (even if you steal your pirate ship). Missiles, maintenance, and supplies aren't cheap so you need a way to fence your loot, suppliers and yards willing to work with known or suspected pirates (both of which usually require a system government willing to turn a blind eye) or you end up with a non-functioning ship in pretty short order.

That's kind of my point. The Transtellars were getting a windfall that has suddenly dried up. They have to operate honestly now in an environment of competition. Competition that is accustomed to operating and turning a profit legally, and probably offering a superior product. The SL - OFS, allowed the Transtellars to corner the market in their respective industries. I just now realized that the Transtellars are in the same position as the Mandarins were. They have to shit or get off the pot. Translated - either fold or make a bold move to continue to exist.

Fencing the loot shouldn't be a problem either, that infrastructure - contacts - should already be in place, and has been for centuries. Only now the Transtellars will be pilfering to remain in business, probably in part to obtain supplies, parts, other resources and contracts that are now drying up.

Ships shouldn't be a problem either, the League is reeling. They got too much on their plate to be able to plug the leak before lots of goods quickly go out the back door. It is the same old song experienced by big businesses who realize that their profits are flowing out the back door of their warehouses, cash registers, vaults, etc., via theft and espionage. So they send in teams to clean house. The word goes around first and rampant theft increases tenfold before the well dries up.

As far as missiles, they don't need Cataphracts if they will be mostly attacking SL freighters now. They're a new prey, naked and vulnerable. I'd be dumbstruck if the Transtellars don't already have a stockpile of missiles, having long seen the writing on the crumbling walls. Or at least solid contacts with a supplier. Like I said, it isn't personal, but why should Transtellars not turn on the very infrastructure which once supported them? There certainly isn't any honor amongst thieves.

Transtellars should have lots of cash having operated for centuries as they did, unencumbered. What could happen is two or more Transtellars could end up merging to stay afloat. Transtellars could become powerful warlords themselves.

The system government willing to turn a blind eye is the local government they've been operating out of for centuries, who've been receiving part of the loot. I've always said there had to be small niches of small-time Mandarins all around the vast SL.

And if they merge, Transtellars could share resources, clients, fences . . .just like any merger.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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