Considering the capabilities of a Lenny, 1-2M km is a zero intercept. If Lennys are designed to launch GTs from stealth in the same manner as the Sharks with spider drives, they will not be picked up. Manticoran RDs cannot be picked up. And MA tech is better. SL drones were picked up, but their stealth tech is below the curve.
Pods cannot risk firing on something "between" them and the planet, in such close proximity to the planet. Even IF at that point, Lennys are detected. No?
I saw your calculations. I'm just not certain they will alter the equation if Lennys can get that close. Consider the range the Sharks had to launch GTs and the range the Lennys will launch. Even if TOA is an hour, then Christmas dinner isn't exactly late. And, even if Lennys launch normal, first generation GTs from their closest range, time on target will still be too short for any target to enjoy Christmas.
I don't expect Lennys to risk less than a light second either. Albeit I'm not prepared to think they can't achieve it under ideal conditions -- whatever ideal conditions might entail. I'm considering that the author is using the analogy of modern subs. Those subs launched from mocking distances as well, but in certain instances fired from "within" the blockade.
I'm also considering the fact that the MA may still have operatives. Even operatives who don't have much security clearance should be able to obtain normal traffic patterns about the planet to enable a pre-planned route. I don't imagine their run in will be arbitrary. They'll come in in the system's "for all intents and purposes" blind side. And, we cannot overlook the use of nanites utilized in a more subtle fashion.* Instead of killing, causing someone to overlook what they just saw. Causing them to suddenly grow a conscious like Shannon, then Tourville -- which allowed Honor's possy to escape.
*The concept of a more subtle use of nanite tech was championed by Annachie and I in another thread . . .
Annachie wrote:Damn, the subtle uses of that MAlign control tec can be nasty.
Get a mole in to the office somewhere, inplant the target with a "automatically sign when you smell this on something with that colour on it" or similar.
(Ok stretching, but you get the idea)