OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?

Star Knight wrote:Not that it matters, but she had 15 Apollo capable ships, not 12. She had 3 Keyhole One ships in her wall for a total of 18 before the IAN arrived.

As I said, it's not entirely clear when the other three joined 8th Fleet. They may have been there for Sanskrit or they may have been waiting when they came back.

Or they may have been with Truman's half of 8th Fleet, wherever it managed to wander off to during Sanskrit. They were in McKeon's battle squadron and he did not appear to be present for Sanskrit.

Star Knight wrote:Second, if you expect a decisive attack by Theisman, an attack at Lovat would have been pointless. He’s already committed to attacking you, he’s all in with everything he has. Trashing a secondary target won’t change his mind to for broke. In fact, it will only strengthen him in his decision.

You're probably right. Though the goal of the raids wasn't just to change Theisman's mind; it was targeted at least as much at Haven's politicians.
To force the dispersal of units based on political demands rather than military logic; even over Theisman's potential objections.

Which is exactly what Peep raids accomplished against the RMN in the first war. Far more of RMN and allied forces were scattered in penny packets, to mollify politicians, than the Admiralty thought was wise.


So the Manties tried to replay the favor in the 2nd war.
So even with Theisman's mind made up there's still a chance that an raid could generate sufficient political pressure to cause his forces to be scattered back into defensive deployments even if that preempts a planned offensive action. (A small chance, but a chance. Still, like I said at the beginning you're probably right. If Theisman is that close to an all out attack the politicians can probably be satisfied with promises that the war will soon be over if they just leave him the forces necessary)

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Sorry, I should have been clearer. I didn't mean consultation with Yeltsin or New Berlin on the operational aspects. That would have been a 5-week loop and completely unacceptable for running a war. I would maintain that the resumption of hostilities would have been at least advised, though probably they didn't wait for a reply since it would mean losing the strategic initiative.

The resumption of hostilities was probably agreed upon by the ambassadors in Landing. And the operational decisions were agreed with by the top admirals of the IAN and GSN. Specifically for the latter, that would have been Admiral Judah Yanakov, which was actually the CO of TF 82 that did participate in Lovat.

I'd assume that at the time the talks were agreed to that Manticore, Grayson, and the Andermani would have also hashed out a variety of contingency plans covering not only how to react to what Haven might offer but also what to do if the talks failed. And reactivating the planned and approved next deep raid mission, delayed only because of the offer of talks, is a obvious item to cover during such contingency discussions.


Obviously none of this is mentioned in the books, and the Queen is definitely reacting emotionally. But I'd be quite surprised if the home governments of Grayson and the Andermani hadn't been involved in discussions about what the Alliance would do if the talks failed, and further surprised if such discussions didn't cover whether or not the planned but not yet executed Sanskrit raid was part of that reaction. (Doesn't mean the raid is a good idea - just means that kind of raid was already discussed at high level between the governments)

Star Knight wrote:If you think about it, it’s unlikey Manticore maintains a production capability of tens of thousands of pods every month. The expenditure just isn’t there. We could try to come up with accurate figures from WoH and AAC, but it doubt the RMN used more than a couple hundred thousand missiles during the second war.

This means they’re probably way over-stocked as far as conventional pods go anyway and don’t really need to produce more than a couple thousand pods every month.
And if this is true, this could be one reason why ramping up Apollo production took a fair amount of time and missiles weren’t comming of the line in great numbers until after the talks collapsed and Eighth Fleet departed for Solon.

Also keep in mind – they still would want to maintain a at leask token production capability of conventional missile pods. Most of the fleet wasn’t Apollo capable afterall. Another factor, since they felt the need to test Apollo, they might not commit fully to full scale Apollo production until after they get back results from Lovat. I don’t think that would be particularly smart, but who knows at this point.

Though the the hard part has to have been getting the production lines for Mk23E Apollo control missiles (ACM) debugged and up to volume production.

The pods themselves are extremely similar to the current flat-pack pods for Mk23s; just trading out 2 normal sized tubes for a single oversized one. Wouldn't even surprise me if the same exact production line could flexibly switch, pod by pod, between building 10 slot conventional flatpack pods and 8+1 slot Apollo flatpack pods.

Most of the missiles in the Apollo pods are the same Mk23s that get stuffed into the conventional pods - and the production lines for those were already happily humming along. You just seem to need enough ACMs to match up with them.

One thing that surprised me is Manticore's lack, hence Beth if she was to perform as well as Pritchard, of having a plan ready that was equal to Beatrice in which to assault the Havenite System. I was pissed when Hamish's momentum toward Noveau Paris was preempted by High Ridge, and the plan to invade seemed to have been scrapped.

Now that I think about it, what's the difference in Eloise' role in her Navy than Beth's role in hers? What's good for the geese is good for the gander, isn't it? In fact, that may have been why Hamish had such a heavy hand in the Navy's affairs, since he may have constructed the original plan to attack Haven.

Jonathan_S wrote:Though the goal of the raids wasn't just to change Theisman's mind; it was targeted at least as much at Haven's politicians.
To force the dispersal of units based on political demands rather than military logic; even over Theisman's potential objections.

That's what the Cutworm raids had done and from all looks, they were working.

But here I'm making Star Knight's argument: the Sanskrit op showed that you couldn't defend the system, however many ships you deployed there to attempt to do so. So Theisman could convince the politicians not to leave his SD(P)s there as target practice and instead put them to some other, good use.

Which is exactly what Peep raids accomplished against the RMN in the first war. Far more of RMN and allied forces were scattered in penny packets, to mollify politicians, than the Admiralty thought was wise.

And drawing another parallel from the first war: when Buttercup happened, Saint-Just had no military alternative, he had to sue for peace to attempt to gain time. Sanskrit had the intention of doing the same: making Haven stall for time again, while Foraker got to think about a clever solution.

But unlike the first war, Theisman activated Beatrice. Which was ready to go, much more quickly than Manticore planners had assumed it would be. And still failed.

My problem with AAC is different, and is closer to KZT(s) that the plot hammer drove the battle and in some "less likely than character driven" ways. Strategically, I think there is only one RHN win available, and will name it specifically at the end of the post.

My analogy is the battle of Gettyburg. Lee's goal was to force a battle to destroy the numerically superior Union army with a smaller force; the Union troops are out to capture the Army of Northern Virginia. The "what if there" is the fact that BOTH capitols (Richmond and Washington D.C.) would have been WIDE OPEN for capture during the battle if sufficient forces had been retained in ambush on either side. Capturing the capitol in theory ends the war, but in reality yeah leaving a superior enemy in the field in a Civil war only forces the recapture of that capitol, yadda yadda yadda.

Given that I don't think 8th Fleet is mouse-trappable (Honor figured out that 2nd Fleet's vector and speed were wrong), the the only POSSIBLE half win for the RHN that I have come up with that is close enough to David's plotting is an "astrographic clock, same-day assault that starts at Trevor's Star to draw 8th Fleet even further out from the terminus, set "galactic clock-wise" to start a few hours before Tourville's arrival in Manticoran space.

Even then, since Trevor's star is closed, the RHN can't guarantee which fleet is going to go protect Manticore backside once some additional fleet is engaged at Trevor's star. But it's a half win in the Honorverse because if 8th Fleet is otherwise engaged, according to RFC's series rule, if the RHN gains the high orbitals they win the war. Or alternatively, if they only trash the fleet bases [Hephaestus, Vulcan, and Weyland], the war is effectively over because there's not enough "miracle missile supply" or military ship-building capability left to stop a "second Battle of Manticore".

Strategy wise, the only FULL win available I've come up with -- and this is based on that alt-universe Gettysburg scenario --

...is to let 8th Fleet attack somewhere besides Haven "prime" (Nouveau Paris/Capitol Fleet) and dashing off dispatch boats to wherever Beatrice Bravo is assembled and ready to launch, and have that dispatch boat's near-iota band crashing hyperspace journey be faster-to-Tourville than 8th Fleet's combined time trashing Jouett and returning via Hyper to Trevor's star. I don't know Jouett's position relative to Haven in the Honorverse, but my assumption is "close enough to Trevor's Star" to prevent that exact scenario from even being planned.

Thoughts?

Theemile wrote:

cthia wrote:Why didn't Honor suggest to Kuzak to roll pods before hypering in all half-cocked? Literally.

She couldn't order Kuzak to do anything, but what was wrong with a little friendly advice? When Honor said that the first thing she wanted to do was to roll pods, was, IMO, a swipe at Kuzak's idiocy. That's the vibe I got.

I also wondered if she didn't suggest it because her relationship with Kuzak isn't what it could be, or should be. Given Kuzak's past history with Hamish.

If so, it is a pointed example of the importance of that particular reg.

Keep it in your pants... so you can do the right thing when it's time to dance.

AAC is one of the books that received considerable editing between the EARC and the print version. I, unfortunately, didn't initially buy the print version and kept quoting text from the EARC for almost a year before someone mentioned that my text didn't match theirs.

In the EARC, while planning 3rd fleet moves to reinforce Home fleet, Kusak speaks to her staff just prior to Honor's comm message in snarky tones ( towards Honor), kind of a "I'll do this, If she lets me..." Speech, indicating some resentment towards Honor. That doesn't come through in the final, but gives some background into David's creation of Kusak. Prior to this she has no POV time, so we don't know her.

Anyway, given this, I always felt Kusak resented Honor, possibly for inserting herself into Hamish's life, but definitely her talents. Kusak has decades more experience than Honor, And probably would have distaste for the youngster dictating tactics to her.

As I said, this was edited out of the final, but I thought it shaped Kusak's character. She's been in defensive fleets since the new buttercup tech came out, and never got hands on experience with it. So she (and likewise, DeOrville), are creatures of the past, with old thinking. Someone on their staffs should be up to speed and using the new playbook, just like all the junior commanders we see do, but the Defense Fleet commands seem to be top-heavy with old strategists, untrusting of new strategies, or those who gained notariety using them.

I made a mental note to reference this at a later time when the heat in the thread died down.

It would be interesting to note who all were Admirals of the Red and Admirals of the Green, and how the idiot quotient breaks down between the two.

Also, I know the Admiralty refrains from back seat driving, but does that include a little friendly advice to roll pods? Let's face it, Caparelli had already attempted a little backseat driving when he suggested Home Fleet not go out to meet them. Which, could have led to a discussion about rolling pods before rolling ships. Indeed, should have.

At any rate, I don't understand why input from the Admiralty is shunned, since his position should rank him very high on any top ten strategists and tacticians list. Yet, Caparelli offered no tactical advice whatsoever, beyond staying put.

[quote=“SharkHunter”]Strategy wise, the only FULL win available I've come up with -- and this is based on that alt-universe Gettysburg scenario --

...is to let 8th Fleet attack somewhere besides Haven "prime" (Nouveau Paris/Capitol Fleet) and dashing off dispatch boats to wherever Beatrice Bravo is assembled and ready to launch, and have that dispatch boat's near-iota band crashing hyperspace journey be faster-to-Tourville than 8th Fleet's combined time trashing Jouett and returning via Hyper to Trevor's star. I don't know Jouett's position relative to Haven in the Honorverse, but my assumption is "close enough to Trevor's Star" to prevent that exact scenario from even being planned.

Thoughts?[/quote]I don’t think the timing can work. Yes a dispatch boat willing to run flat out is a little faster than a fleet. But Trevor’s Star is 210ly (25 days by warship) closer to Haven than Manticore is!


Even is every possible target had a dispatch boat waiting to run right to Tourville and Chin’s forward deployed fleets the second 8th appears (and nobody ever has enough dispatch boats so you’d probably have to risk destroyers for this) I don’t think those fleets could reach Manticore before Honor was back in Trevor’s Star.

cthia wrote:

Theemile wrote:AAC is one of the books that received considerable editing between the EARC and the print version. I, unfortunately, didn't initially buy the print version and kept quoting text from the EARC for almost a year before someone mentioned that my text didn't match theirs.

In the EARC, while planning 3rd fleet moves to reinforce Home fleet, Kusak speaks to her staff just prior to Honor's comm message in snarky tones ( towards Honor), kind of a "I'll do this, If she lets me..." Speech, indicating some resentment towards Honor. That doesn't come through in the final, but gives some background into David's creation of Kusak. Prior to this she has no POV time, so we don't know her.

Anyway, given this, I always felt Kusak resented Honor, possibly for inserting herself into Hamish's life, but definitely her talents. Kusak has decades more experience than Honor, And probably would have distaste for the youngster dictating tactics to her.

As I said, this was edited out of the final, but I thought it shaped Kusak's character. She's been in defensive fleets since the new buttercup tech came out, and never got hands on experience with it. So she (and likewise, DeOrville), are creatures of the past, with old thinking. Someone on their staffs should be up to speed and using the new playbook, just like all the junior commanders we see do, but the Defense Fleet commands seem to be top-heavy with old strategists, untrusting of new strategies, or those who gained notariety using them.

I made a mental note to reference this at a later time when the heat in the thread died down.

It would be interesting to note who all were Admirals of the Red and Admirals of the Green, and how the idiot quotient breaks down between the two.

Also, I know the Admiralty refrains from back seat driving, but does that include a little friendly advice to roll pods? Let's face it, Caparelli had already attempted a little backseat driving when he suggested Home Fleet not go out to meet them. Which, could have led to a discussion about rolling pods before rolling ships. Indeed, should have.

At any rate, I don't understand why input from the Admiralty is shunned, since his position should rank him very high on any top ten strategists and tacticians list. Yet, Caparelli offered no tactical advice whatsoever, beyond staying put.

Cthia, forget everything my demented mind said here. The other day I went and pulled an archive copy of the SD card in my phone from 2010, and found the .prc file of the AAC EARC. After finding a modern reader that would read the old format, I found that The chapter with Honor and Kusak reacting to the case Zulu is identical in both versions. It seems my memory of the original got corrupted along the way.

My apologies.

Ok, thanks. Accuracy in reporting seems to be a dying notion. You are to be commended.

Though I'm not so certain I can dismiss my personal belief there was no love loss between the two.

To be fair to Kuzak, who's no longer able to defend herself, she may have been ok with Hamish and Honor's relationship internally. Although, when the scandal untimely hit the fan, human nature would have caused Kuzak to blame an irresponsible Honor for not being discrete, unlike herself.

Moreover, I'd like to know how Kuzak ultimately felt about Hamish. Her unadulterated truth . . . "If there was a possibility of another woman being brought into Hamish's marriage, it should have been me!"

At any rate, it still seems a bit telling that Honor didn't suggest rolling pods before entering the battle.

The perfect murder? "Ouch!"

Umm, Honor did.