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Is the Detweiler Plan off the rails?

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Re: Is the Detweiler Plan off the rails?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:15 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
There were deep raids before Apollo by both Manticore (using the new LAC's and podlayers in Operation Buttercup) and by Haven (the attack on Sidemore and before that Giscard in Silesia).


None were remotely as deep as the Apollo-era raids.
Pretty sure Giscard's raid on Sidemore was at least a couple times deeper than any of Honor's Apollo-era raids. Sidemore was on the far side of Silesia from Haven and was IIRC a couple months sailing time.

I don't think any of Honor's raids exceeded 3 weeks each way. (And while not 100% accurate a look at the honorverse maps seems to show that its close from Trevor's star to the far ends of Haven space than it is to Marsh from the nearest part of Haven's space. So that seems to reinforce the idea that the attempt to crush Honor in detail there was the longest raid of the entire 2nd war)

(Though I don't think the Buttercup attacks could fairly be counted as raids. White Haven's fleet detached enough forces to destroy all naval forces within all the systems he swept through; then hold them under Manticoran control. And he was hitting the major nodal positions and bases as he cut a path towards Haven - not just hit and run raiding against important but under-defended systems like Honor was doing)
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Re: Is the Detweiler Plan off the rails?
Post by kzt   » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:50 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The MAlign planners were probably aware that Manticore was not going to be a walk in the park; everyone else simply looked at a single star system and thought it could never resist a 300-star system entity.

And to be fair, if the Peeps had been willing to make a big roll of the dice at the beginning of the war - instead of letting the Alliance scare them off their normal tactic of overwhelming force hammering the enemy's home system - they almost certainly would have won.

Not sure 'almost certainly' is true, but it certainly had a higher chance than the insane 'strategy' they chose. They might well defeat the RMN, but there is no likely end-game that produces Haven holding Manticore in a long war of attrition. The Manties just end up allied to to Beowulf a few decades earlier, and at much less favorable terms.
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Re: Is the Detweiler Plan off the rails?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:26 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:If they'd crushed Manticore then then none of the other allies whether separately or together could make much of a nuisance of themselves - the Peeps could probably get at least ceasefires from them just for the asking. That'd leave the Peeps time to consolidate their gains, put down any revolts that kicked off while their navy was elsewhere, and fund additional rounds of BLS increases out of the Junction transit fees.


Whether or not that course of events would have worked out better for the MAlign is hard to say. Depends, I guess, on how quickly they'd stir up conflict between Haven and the League, as well as how much Mantie R&D Haven managed to get their hands on after the surrender.


The Junction alone might have funded the BLS for decades, reducing internal pressure. With the technology that they'd acquire from Manticore and without an internal or external pressure, they'd certainly modernise their fleet.

MAlign planners weren't aware of Project Gram and without it, the Detweiler Plan would have been completely on track: with their tentacles already in the PRH government, they could get them to fight the League and then get destroyed in the process.

With Project Gram, assuming Manticore didn't manage to delete the data and escape with it into exile, would have given Haven an edge. How much they'd have continued R&D after winning is unknown. Probably they wouldn't, since it was not in their plans to fight the League and by the time that began, it would be too late to restart.
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