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Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Sigs   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:19 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Given the technology available at the SLN level available at the time of, say, Monica, it is entirely possible that the Alignment could acquire former SLN ships (as were transfered to Monica) with "modern" weapons and use them to interdict the non-Torch side of the Torch wormhole.
You don't need Spyder drive ships with the Graser Trop level weaponry. You only need hyper capable (and, wormhole capable since you have to get them 1st into the Alighmnet's wormhole network and mover them around in it) ships with even SLN CH or BC range of standard energy and missiles. That you would probably want to add some level of minefields to it is also reasonable but you would have to then provide the people and ship(s) and people plus LACs or equivalent to tend the mines without being hypercapale.

The problem is not the ships themselves, I’m sure that the MA can quetly disappear a few dozen BC’s and CA’s without the SLN realizing especially after the massacre of so many SLN BC’s and escorts at the hands of the GA. Problem is that the MA may not have conventional ships in their inventory which means they may not have crews aside from what they have manning the shark class ships. So then the question becomes wether you mothball some of the Sharks to provide manpower for obsolete SLN ships to guard the WH, assume that the Sharks are capable of picketing the system and use them or keep letting the MSDF picket the system in secret.

The first option means you strip crews away from the training platform for the next generation of warships and worse you lose those crews in terms of training cadre to expand the MAN, an expansion that would be desperately needed if the MAN is to become a fighting force capable of going toe to toe with the GA.

Heck, the Alignment could even broker a deal with Mannerheim to buy several of it's existing if slightly older (which would let them upgrade via Technodyne or similar builder) and put them on the interditction duty. Draw the crews from Darius population and train the up with Mannerheim Naval Officers who are both already knowlable about the role of the Alignment and let this "legacy" force handle the job.
How long do you think it would take to train crews to a reasonable standard? What’s more how suspicious would be for MSDF officers to disappear for a couple of years along with older MSDF ships? The RF will be under a microscope because the GA will try to determine if they are going to be a force of stability to their neighbours or they would be a threat to stability and the GA. The last thing the RF wants is to add suspicious and draw the interest of the GA even more then they normally would, and the disappearance of potentially hundreds of officers and enlisted along with obsolete ships is one way to draw that unwanted attention.


The Alighment can afford to have ten thousand people trained to at least operate and fight the ships from an ambush position. Besides, how many people on board each ship would have to know how to transit a wormhole except that you might need to have some rotation and certainly send supply ships regularly. Emergency communication would by dispatch boat or perhaps DDs.
This would be a long term deployment, they would need to rotate their people through the deployment every 12-18 months, you cant deploy a bunch of ships to picket a system for the next 5-10 years without relief.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Sigs   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:22 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
If The Twins is compromised, they will have to picket Felix in force and risk discovery. And then they'll need to explain why the Renaissance Factor does not want Manticoran ships to go through.


They don't want to incur the wrath of the SLN when they get technological parity. Or they don't particularly trust the GA/RMN, what is the GA going to do? Invade them?
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Sigs   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:35 pm

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kzt wrote:I need a volunteer to go into this woodchipper,

OK, that didn't work, could I have another volunteer?

Hmm, still didn't work, could I...

Any volunteers? No? Ok so you are being voluntold... its the military, people have been send on missions that are extremely risky that could get a lot of people killed, how many examples do we have in the book of people following orders to their deaths in situations where they have little to no chance of survival? In some of those examples the people had little to no chance of victory either like Hypatia? In the battle of Hypatia they had little chance of survival and even slimmer chance of victory but they still went and gave their lives to try and accomplish a mission with very little in the way of chance of success.


Do you think the US military has never had to put people in situations where there is low chance of survival or on the flip side a high chance of death?

If the reward is 1 step closer to finding the MA and preventing tens or hundreds of millions of deaths, risking a few hundred isn't that big of a deal especially if the few hundred are spread equally amongst the GA member navies.

They have no reason to expect that the other end of the WH is heavily fortified because the owners don't have a reason to expect a mass assault. But if the first assault doesn't work fortifying their end of the WH and trying to find the other end some other way is the way to go.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:09 pm

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Something I can't remember: does the inbound lane vector on a wormhole give ANY indication of the direction of the terminus for that bridge of the wormhole?

If it does, then it is possible that you might send a couple of ships out on that vector in hyperspace and stop near any star that is within X distance of the vector. Yeah, you would have to take astronomical observations at each point you came out of hyperspace to see what might be at each star and then hunt around to see if you can find a terminus.
I said a couple of ships because sending one ship and having it run into any kind of blocking force that noticed it's downward transition from hyperspace could be in serious trouble. Even if the GA doesn't know how that Alighment drive works, they have to figure that popping out of hyperspace near a place those ships frequent is likely to draw trouble quickly.
Yes, this approach- if it can be used- is going to take quite a while. Still more survivable than taking that trip through the wormhole.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:35 pm

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Sigs wrote:After the GA has lost tens of millions of people in unprovoked attacks, tens or hundreds of millions of people throughout human space directly or indirectly died because of the MA, I suspect they would be willing to take some risks if it leads them a step closer to the MA's base and industrial power.


That only works if there's a chance of success. The GA, especially both Manticore and Haven, know very well how a wormhole can be protected against transits and what it would take to break through (if anything at all). If they don't think there's even a remote chance of success, they're not going to sanction such an action, even crewed entirely by volunteers.

A crew of rogue volunteers could try it on its own.

Personally, I think the only two ways are to either find Felix by way of digging through intel, or a technological breakthrough.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by kzt   » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:11 pm

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David tossed off a comment in one of the books about how in theory you should be able to go directly from terminus to terminus, bypassing the junction.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:49 am

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kzt wrote:David tossed off a comment in one of the books about how in theory you should be able to go directly from terminus to terminus, bypassing the junction.


Interesting. Where do you see this applied?

It would allow to go straight from The Twins to Darius, but it wouldn't help getting to The Twins nor would it help with the Darius defences...
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Theemile   » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:58 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
kzt wrote:David tossed off a comment in one of the books about how in theory you should be able to go directly from terminus to terminus, bypassing the junction.


Interesting. Where do you see this applied?

It would allow to go straight from The Twins to Darius, but it wouldn't help getting to The Twins nor would it help with the Darius defences...


Note - "in theory".

It does not occur at any junction. But theoretically it should be possible if the "current" models are correct. It just shows how hyperphysicists have an incomplete understanding of the science, and underlines their hesitation when they find something which may lie outside what they expect- like a "killer" wormhole.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by kzt   » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:00 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
kzt wrote:David tossed off a comment in one of the books about how in theory you should be able to go directly from terminus to terminus, bypassing the junction.


Interesting. Where do you see this applied?

It would allow to go straight from The Twins to Darius, but it wouldn't help getting to The Twins nor would it help with the Darius defences...

Not sure, but it’s the only comment I can remember that clearly suggested a breakthrough.

The other more vague stuff was that the MA hyperspace physicists had figured out ‘stuff’ studying the twins system. But David hadn’t ever expanded on that.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:04 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Something I can't remember: does the inbound lane vector on a wormhole give ANY indication of the direction of the terminus for that bridge of the wormhole?
Unfortunately from what I remember RFC saying the entry vector doesn't align with the wormhole direction. (I don't want to go as far as saying there's absolutely no correlation, but any correlation is weak enough that it's effectively useless).

Remember that even after Harvest Joy fully plotted the Manticore side of the Lynx leg of the junction Manticore seemed to have absolutely no idea where it might go. Not even a vauge - "well, based on the angle it's heading broadly towards League space"

If you can't tell the wormhole's bearing well enough to know it's more likely headed towards (than away from) a couple hundred LY wide target that's also your largest source of additional shipping revenue then I don't think there's any chance of using the entry vector information to practically narrow the search space for the other end of the Torch wormhole.
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