Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Sorry, there are two problems with that argument: "consistently" and "good chunk". The Mannerheim picket of The Twins was neither consistent nor a good chunk of the fleet. It was a squadron of BCs and we know Mannerheim had an outsized Navy, so I expect this means a dozen or two SDs. And it was deployed only around the time the Harvest Joy was expected to transit. The transit was well-publicised, so the MAlign and Mannerheim had enough notice to know to deploy the special squadron, with trustworthy crews. No one is going to transit a wormhole they don't have navigational data for, so there was no danger before the Harvest Joy.

They had to defend it, after all what if it wasn’t publicised and they did the transit unexpectedly? In a middle of a war either Manticore, Haven or Erewhon could have send a ship to do the research with no fanfare at all and if the MA had no heads up you now have a ship that goes into a system, figures out where said system is and comes back and Torch knows which means that the RHN and RMN will also know. Once that Genie is out of the bottle there is no chance of it being put back in.
As for the rest? Mannerheim could have a powerful fleet, but even if they have 20 SD’s and 80 BC’s of their own, people are still going to ask questions where 10% of the BC strength keeps disappearing to. Look at the fleet strength of the RMN in 1905 they has ~200 BC’s and even then someone is bound to notice that they end up missing 4% of their BC’s on a consistent basis. The MA cannot afford to let anyone into their end of the WH so they would have to man the defences as soon as they figured out that they lost Congo and that end of the WH, because they would have to honour the threat that the SEM or the RoH would send an expedition as soon as possible without worrying much about blasting it to anyone and everyone. They cannot assume that whoever goes to survey the WH would give them sufficient time for the news to reach the MA which would give out orders to the MSDF which would have to send ships to the system quickly.

Having 8 BCs disappear for a bit of time is no big deal. You tell the galaxy that it's exercise manoeuvres and you hide the squadron's deployment in an actual, larger exercise of your fleet. Benjamin got away with it twice with the Protector's Own. The crews themselves have to be somewhat trustworthy: as I said, they know about the wormhole and that it is a secret, but they just don't know the real reason why.

All the GA needs to hear is ”secret WH” to pique their interest and if it isn’t in Mannerheim’s territory or is not officially claimed by Mannerheim they can waltz in with 20 or 30 SD(P)’s and CLAC’s. If it is on the other hand claimed by Mannerheim or in their territory I’m sure they can find a discreet way of scouting the system. With the SKM’s history around the MWHJ I would say the words “secret WH” would pique their interest.

But you're right that that third shift impeller tech may brag at a bar and cause the intelligence services to find out what really happened to the Harvest Joy. The problem is only that right now the GA and the SL have no reason to suspect Mannerheim and the RF are connected to the MAlign.

They have no reason to suspect that the RF is connected to the MA but at the same time they have to set up intelligence gathering operations in the RF to figure them out, they are now a dozen potentially medium to heavily industrialized systems with the ability to be a serious problem for the GA if they so choose, plus the GA has to figure out what direction they plan on going because they could help the GA keep the League in check or they could start building an empire in the verge once the SLN pulls out.

You can't do this ad infinitum. If you calculated that 5:50 am was sufficient and added 10 minutes of buffer, why can't they have done the same? If they thought they needed the fleet in 1950, calculated they could get there by starting the ramp up in 1925, so they started in 1915. Seems sufficient to me and aligned with the information we have.

Because I am taking into account my actions and situation 40 minutes in advance, they are trying to determine what the situation will be hundreds of years ahead without a fudge factor into it. Plans that have a length in centuries require more fudge factor, the longer the plan the more wiggle room you have.

True, except they can't have neither 500 SD(P)s nor at the Havenite level. So that's a moot point. They've know about SD(P)s since 1914, but without MDMs, those aren't very useful. The technology they have access to wouldn't make 500 SDs much of a fight against the RMN or RHN. And I maintain I don't think they have 500: at best, I think they have two squadrons.

Jean-Claude Nesbitt might have access to some of the SD(P) designs and technology and probably some of the technological transfer from Erewhon.

Theemile wrote:
The comment was the 12 Lynx APOLLO Forts could take on 250 non-Apollo SD(p)s. The LDs do not have Apollo, nor even full MDMs. Plus, LDs waste massive mass on their Spider drive - something Forts don't do with their tiny beta node wedge, allowing more mass in forts for weapons systems. In a standard Fort vs an LD 1:1 fight, the LD would be at a massive disadvantage.

Besides, all the Planets in Manticore have Apollo forts and Shoals of Apollo missiles, so the LDs would need to neutralize them after the destroy the mobile units.

And if we assume that the LD's are as good as Apollo forts at Lynx like KZT suggested then the RHN just became a bunch of targets.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Despite that being a massive risk. What happens if a flaw is found in them? What happens if the spider drive is detectable by some new technology?

As we've discussed, the decision-making at the innermost core of the Onion is no longer rational.

It's no longer a massive risk, the GA is actively looking for them whether they build useless LD's or nothing at all they wont be much worse off when the GA finds them. They are commited to their design as it is too late for them to change into building something else unless they find complete designs of the SD(P)'s that the RMN is building.

Sigs wrote:

Theemile wrote:
The comment was the 12 Lynx APOLLO Forts could take on 250 non-Apollo SD(p)s. The LDs do not have Apollo, nor even full MDMs. Plus, LDs waste massive mass on their Spider drive - something Forts don't do with their tiny beta node wedge, allowing more mass in forts for weapons systems. In a standard Fort vs an LD 1:1 fight, the LD would be at a massive disadvantage.

Besides, all the Planets in Manticore have Apollo forts and Shoals of Apollo missiles, so the LDs would need to neutralize them after the destroy the mobile units.

And if we assume that the LD's are as good as Apollo forts at Lynx like KZT suggested then the RHN just became a bunch of targets.

But they are not. They don't have the missiles, or the guidance, nor mass for weapons the forts do. As I said, in a classic 1:1 fight - pound for pound, the LD loses. For a 12 Mton Fort and a 12 Mton LD, if they both pop their bubble in weapons range of the other, the Fort will win almost every time - it has more mass devoted to weapons and more weapons designated for the classic battle space. Those Graser torps and their handling equipment are massive and slow - in a strategic sense they great weapons, but in a tactical battle, missiles 100x faster will are mounted in their place on a fort and will shred the MAN ship long before it's Gtorps find a target.

LDs may have assymetric weapons systems which may make them superior to Forts in some regards which we do not know about, but it's like comparing an elite sniper to a heavy machine gunner. The LD will only win if it can choose the battle where it's strengths rule - and right now we don't know if those strengths exist or what they are.

Theemile wrote:The Graser Torp is at least in the 5K ton region - it is a full up Starship fusion reactor (which masses in the 3-5 Kton range), and a CL sized Graser (which masses in the 2-3 Kton Range), plus the spider drive, controls, command, comms, RCS, and structure. It could very likely be in the mass range of an old LAC - 8-12Ktons.

Remember - G Torps are large enough that they could not be carried in a Shark's Pod bay and had to be carried externally - and each 5-6 Mton Shark was limited to carrying 3 Torps externally.

With respect, no. Unless you can show some sort of evidence for that, especially the fusion reactor, you're simply not backed up by the text. Even the oversize Silver Bullet long-endurance graser torpedoes were capacitor-based, and the standard graser torpedoes were said to have endurance nearing that of most navies' (capacitor-based) recon drones - NOT the fusion-powered Ghost Rider drones.

From MoH, the torpedoes were said to be too large to fit inside the Sharks' missile magazines - NOT the pod core. An unknown but probably substantial number of them could have been carried internally at the cost of displacing the missile pods. It's specifically mentioned that the mission planners did not trust the graser torpedoes enough to gamble the entire mission on them, so the pod core was full of pods and not torpedoes.

If graser torpedoes truly were the size of LACs, the broadside of a ship capable of launching any significant number of them would more resemble the side of a carrier rather than a traditional broadside - arrays of one-shot box launchers because no conceivable ship could be big enough to contain the reloading mechanisms needed for three broadsides of them (and we all know RFC's opinion on asymmetric broadsides).

Sigs wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Despite that being a massive risk. What happens if a flaw is found in them? What happens if the spider drive is detectable by some new technology?

As we've discussed, the decision-making at the innermost core of the Onion is no longer rational.

It's no longer a massive risk, the GA is actively looking for them whether they build useless LD's or nothing at all they wont be much worse off when the GA finds them. They are commited to their design as it is too late for them to change into building something else unless they find complete designs of the SD(P)'s that the RMN is building.

Even without text backing it up, the MAlign must be building a massive conventional fleet to back up the LDs. LDs are essentially surprise tactical/strategic weapon systems and are not terribly well suited as defensive units. If you depend on stealth and surprise as your primary weapon, an opponent can force you to attack them by immediately moving on the planet you're defending. They may take some lumps getting there, but they're three times faster than you and once they're in orbit you either have to surrender the planet or close to combat range on their terms rather than your own, through a volume of space certain to be swarming with recon assets.

Theemile wrote:


But they are not. They don't have the missiles, or the guidance, nor mass for weapons the forts do. As I said, in a classic 1:1 fight - pound for pound, the LD loses. For a 12 Mton Fort and a 12 Mton LD, if they both pop their bubble in weapons range of the other, the Fort will win almost every time - it has more mass devoted to weapons and more weapons designated for the classic battle space. Those Graser torps and their handling equipment are massive and slow - in a strategic sense they great weapons, but in a tactical battle, missiles 100x faster will are mounted in their place on a fort and will shred the MAN ship long before it's Gtorps find a target.

LDs may have assymetric weapons systems which may make them superior to Forts in some regards which we do not know about, but it's like comparing an elite sniper to a heavy machine gunner. The LD will only win if it can choose the battle where it's strengths rule - and right now we don't know if those strengths exist or what they are.

kzt wrote:Let's assume the massive ships are as combat effective individually as each of the rather smaller Lynx fortresses. How does that change the equation to you?

I answered a question, I don't think he was implying that the LD's are as combat effective as a fort since we don't know anything about their capabilities other than that they are rather big, kinda slow and one of their potential weapon systems. They could end up being significantly more powerfull than a RMN fort because the MA might have technology that throws the technological edge to them or they could be as combat effective as one of the old Triumphant-Class BB's once their stealth and their weapon's stealth is compromised, we just don't know.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Even without text backing it up, the MAlign must be building a massive conventional fleet to back up the LDs. LDs are essentially surprise tactical/strategic weapon systems and are not terribly well suited as defensive units. If you depend on stealth and surprise as your primary weapon, an opponent can force you to attack them by immediately moving on the planet you're defending. They may take some lumps getting there, but they're three times faster than you and once they're in orbit you either have to surrender the planet or close to combat range on their terms rather than your own, through a volume of space certain to be swarming with recon assets.

I agree with that, but the MA could be arrogant, they couldn't find a way to detect them and made the assumption that since they didn't find something then the GA wont find anything. Or maybe they have pods that are equal to the RHN at least with a substantial conventional core of SD(P)'s and those LD's and Sharks would be used as specialized units where they can use their stealth to their advantage.

Sigs wrote:They had to defend it, after all what if it wasn’t publicised and they did the transit unexpectedly? In a middle of a war either Manticore, Haven or Erewhon could have send a ship to do the research with no fanfare at all and if the MA had no heads up you now have a ship that goes into a system, figures out where said system is and comes back and Torch knows which means that the RHN and RMN will also know. Once that Genie is out of the bottle there is no chance of it being put back in.
As for the rest? Mannerheim could have a powerful fleet, but even if they have 20 SD’s and 80 BC’s of their own, people are still going to ask questions where 10% of the BC strength keeps disappearing to. Look at the fleet strength of the RMN in 1905 they has ~200 BC’s and even then someone is bound to notice that they end up missing 4% of their BC’s on a consistent basis. The MA cannot afford to let anyone into their end of the WH so they would have to man the defences as soon as they figured out that they lost Congo and that end of the WH, because they would have to honour the threat that the SEM or the RoH would send an expedition as soon as possible without worrying much about blasting it to anyone and everyone. They cannot assume that whoever goes to survey the WH would give them sufficient time for the news to reach the MA which would give out orders to the MSDF which would have to send ships to the system quickly.

No one transits a wormhole by accident. The volume of the terminus is minute compared to the WH area itself. And for all we know, it's not about being at the right place, it's also the right vector. They don't spend months or years studying wormholes for no reason.

Before OB, there was no state of war between Manticore, Erewhon, Haven or the Andermani and the MAlign. There was no reason for the research to be rushed or kept a secret. And up until a year before, the entire system was under the control of the Mesan Space Navy anyway. So they did deploy a squadron of BCs once Harvest Joy left Manticore through the Junction to make sure it didn't return. And since it didn't return, now the researchers are even more worried about their data. No transits are expected soon.

There's still a risk that the the Cachat and Zilwicki get wind of the information that the other terminus was picketed. If that happens, then you're right, the GA will conduct the research in secret. I just don't know if they'll attempt a transit: even an SD is vulnerable when doing so. But the risk is minimal and don't forget that Torch is three transits from Darius: first to The Twins, then to Felix, and only from there to Darius.

Sigs wrote:They have no reason to suspect that the RF is connected to the MA but at the same time they have to set up intelligence gathering operations in the RF to figure them out, they are now a dozen potentially medium to heavily industrialized systems with the ability to be a serious problem for the GA if they so choose, plus the GA has to figure out what direction they plan on going because they could help the GA keep the League in check or they could start building an empire in the verge once the SLN pulls out.

Very true.

Sigs wrote:Because I am taking into account my actions and situation 40 minutes in advance, they are trying to determine what the situation will be hundreds of years ahead without a fudge factor into it. Plans that have a length in centuries require more fudge factor, the longer the plan the more wiggle room you have.

They may have stupendous resources to dedicate to the cause, but they aren't infinite. They have to allocate them carefully and they also have to limit the number of people who know about it. Anyway, my argument is simply that they could have planned with a nice, comfortable safety margin and had been executing to it.

Sigs wrote: This means that even if they had only a dozen of them they can go through pretty much any one of the GA's defences save for Manticore, Haven, Beowulf and Grayson and even then it wont be a guarantee. But if they are that powerful all the MA has to do is wait out the GA for a decade, finish off a couple of dozen of them and swoop into the Manticore Home System, crush Home Fleet and split the GA into 3 pieces after the Manticore WH is taken out of the equation. Beowulf/Hypatia cannot give or receive support from anyone else, Haven and Grayson are separated from Beowulf and the Andermani, Erewhon and Maya are separate from everyone else and its game over for the GA.

Well, David did promise they would be combat effective...