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Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry

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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Theemile   » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:14 am

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Sigs wrote:
Theemile wrote:
Actually a single LAC wing will probably handle 98-99% of traditional Pirates. It has enough presence units to cover most interesting locations in a system simultaneously, and support crew and maintenance rotations. A single modern LAC can rip a hole in a classic DD/CL, and a squadron can easily handle most of such ships.

Core worlds and Shell worlds have a lot more industrial power than Grayson in 1900. Grayson had to worry about one other nation with equally crappy technology and equally weak economy. Dozens or hundreds of core/shell systems will present quite the juicy target if they only have a handful of LAC's and CA and bellow. Besides the first independent system to build a significant military it will force their neighbours to do so as well and so on in series because no one will want to be protected by a bunch of light combatants and LAC's when they neighbour is working on their 5th or 6th squadron of SD(P)'s.
These are wealthy systems that wont want to feel exposed if they can help it.


Now, protecting against Commerce Raiders/Foreign Navies, those require the force you are suggesting, they are usually more modern, larger, and better equipped; more importantly, they are willing to take damage to achieve their mission. A wing of 1920 Havenite LACs should be sufficient to destroy a division of 1900 era Battlecruisers handily (whereas a squadron of Shrikes should be able to take a BC on their own.) A thousand or 2 pods will stand off a BC squadron or 2 and give pause to a capital squadron or 2.

That's now in 1923, imagine what it will be like in 1930 or 1935 when you have everyone tripping over themselves to attempt to gain parity the technological edge will close quickly.



A handful of DD/CLs would allow a state to easily patrol beyond it's hyperlimit, a couple more will allow the support of a merchant marine and regional policing duties.
What happens when their neighbour build a squadron of SD(P)'s? What if that neighbour has a score to settle that the SLN was keeping a lid on but no more? We are talking about core and shell worlds which ware used to being protected and secure, we are not talking about verge systems that don't have two pennies to rub together and have to worry about some nickel and dime pirates.



The optimal small navy would probably be as you said, a couple LAC wings, 6 or so DDs, and 1-3 CLs, with a shoal of (Cataphract) missile pods. It would be a tight little, easy to maintain navy, focusing on ease of defense, with slight offensive reach, but little ability for protracted excursions.
So the core worlds that until 1921 were protected by the mighty SLN and its 10,000 SD's would be willing to reduce their defence to only 10 hyper capable ships and a few dozen LAC's?

These are core and shell systems that just saw the SLN try to wipe two member systems industry and a dozen neutrals out of spite, I doubt that they will settle for the smallest navy possible, they might start with a few LAC's and DD's if starting from near scratch but from that point on they will most likely be working feverishly to build up their navy to a sufficient strength.


Sigs, we're discussing a minimal verge navy here, and given the "current" situation in the Honorverse, this takes care of the threat. No verge navy could realistically hold off the SLN or the RMN if their sites are set on you; no matter what you could possibly throw into your defense, such a first tier navy will just steamroll you, by definition. All a Verge nation can do is build a plausible deterrent that would require a 1st tier navy to have to engage with such overwhelming force as to make it difficult and expensive.

You plan for the other 99% of threats you will realistically encounter: policing the system, presence in your territory, detection and deterrence against random light pirates, standing off commerce raiders and assault forces from expected threats, protecting your merchants beyond your space. That's a minimal navy, and for most of the Verge in 1923 pd, what was outlined will do.

In 1935, that might change, and need to be addressed, but my list has much more firepower than ~50% of navies do currently.

Or to put it more bluntly, When you build a house in Ohio, you don't build it to withstand a 7.0 earthquake, or a Cat 5 Hurricane. You don't install AC units capable of cooling your house on a 120 degree day, or heaters and insulation to keep out -50 degree arctic colds. You don't worry about planting plants in your yard that are drought resistant or fire retardant, and you don't build a 10 foot stone wall topped with glass shards and barbed wire around your yard. All those are threats experienced and others build to withstand elsewhere, but those are not treats experienced THERE normally, so no one builds designs for them.

You build to withstand the threats and conditions you can realistically experience. You plan for marginally outside the day to day threats and address them if you can.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Brigade XO   » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:35 pm

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The financing and then accomplishing the rebuilding of the SEM and Grayson industries has a few levels. One is that, until SEM gets it Merchant Marine back into full participation in the trade in the former SL areas etc, the income stream is more or less restricted to the Junction Fees.
Initaly buying what they need as far as equipment to build the equipment (and so forth) plus training up the people to construct the new major planitary space stations--and all that other "orbital" manufacturing or fabricating capacity is going to take time and getting lots of people into it.
Then there is the not insignifcant problem that while the Junction and the MMM had been a major source of revenue, sales, income etc for both SKM and the people who crewed/operated/ran the MMM and related services, a very signifcant amount of the goods carried by the MMM or any other freighter passing through the SEM systems (Manticore and the pre-Talbot termini) was Manticorian manufactured goods and equipment. They were a major exporter as well as what has been shown as the major if not single most significant cargo fleet anywhere. Manticore is going to have to reestablish that export capasity (and sell & transport that stuff) to truly recover
Grayson has a similar problem though they are nowhere close to Manticore in mfg or exports. They were, however, really good at building warships and all the suff the Manticore Aliance needed as part of making, equiping, and supplying ships with widgets and munitions. They also seem to have been gaining ground on building commercial shipping and I presume that their own Merchant Marine was growing, not just they were building ships for Manticorian companie or even outright export freighter market.

Especialy Manticore is going to push really hard to regain any portions of the shipping markets before everybody else (former SL systems, the IAE, ROH etc) gets to the point where they are either building merchant shipping to service their own needs and for hire plus those who would also swing right into buidling for sale.
Manticore may have that large MM and probably most of the crews still avilable but they have to get out there and rebuild the customer base and reestablish themselves on both former and now new routes for shipping before others can step in and take up the vacuums created with Lacoon I & LL
Looking forward to see what RFC come up with for this.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Sigs   » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:40 pm

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Theemile wrote:
Sigs, we're discussing a minimal verge navy here, and given the "current" situation in the Honorverse, this takes care of the threat. No verge navy could realistically hold off the SLN or the RMN if their sites are set on you; no matter what you could possibly throw into your defense, such a first tier navy will just steamroll you, by definition. All a Verge nation can do is build a plausible deterrent that would require a 1st tier navy to have to engage with such overwhelming force as to make it difficult and expensive.

Verge systems can survive with only LAC's in the beginning, SD(P)'s are a long long way off as is anything bigger than LAC's for at least a decade if not more. The problem here is that the verge does not have the financial means to fund their own growth let alone fund the SEM's recovery through purchases. My vision of a verge navy is starting off with a Squadron or two of LAC's manned by GA personnel who would man those ships until naval personnel from the host country could be recruited, trained and returned to their home system to start taking over the operation of those LAC's. Hell they could do on the spot training for the LAC's, solve the immediate need and work from there.

But when we are talking about funding the SEM's recovery along with Beowulfs and Graysons the only systems that need a fleet and can afford to buy said fleet also happen to be core/shell worlds recently independent from the League. They wont have the manpower for a real navy which would mean that the GA would need to help them create a navy and train their personnel, organize their logistics and only then start delivering the ships which would be at least 8-10 years after end of war if not longer. Core worlds can pay for the protection provided courtesy of the Allied Fleet, training assistance, technical assistance and anything else associated with building a fleet from scratch plus upfront cost for the fleet they want. This would be money and resources that would go to rebuilding the GA members who need it, building up Haven's territories and whatever is left would be to help the verge build up their industry and technological base.


You build to withstand the threats and conditions you can realistically experience. You plan for marginally outside the day to day threats and address them if you can.


Newly independant core/shell systems will face different challenges than the newly liberated verge/protectorates. This ultimately means that they will need different levels of defence, also the fact that one depends on Allied charity for their training and ships and the other has the ability to fund the Allied recovery makes a difference.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Sigs   » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:50 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:The financing and then accomplishing the rebuilding of the SEM and Grayson industries has a few levels. One is that, until SEM gets it Merchant Marine back into full participation in the trade in the former SL areas etc, the income stream is more or less restricted to the Junction Fees.
Initaly buying what they need as far as equipment to build the equipment (and so forth) plus training up the people to construct the new major planitary space stations--and all that other "orbital" manufacturing or fabricating capacity is going to take time and getting lots of people into it.
Then there is the not insignifcant problem that while the Junction and the MMM had been a major source of revenue, sales, income etc for both SKM and the people who crewed/operated/ran the MMM and related services, a very signifcant amount of the goods carried by the MMM or any other freighter passing through the SEM systems (Manticore and the pre-Talbot termini) was Manticorian manufactured goods and equipment. They were a major exporter as well as what has been shown as the major if not single most significant cargo fleet anywhere. Manticore is going to have to reestablish that export capasity (and sell & transport that stuff) to truly recover
Grayson has a similar problem though they are nowhere close to Manticore in mfg or exports. They were, however, really good at building warships and all the suff the Manticore Aliance needed as part of making, equiping, and supplying ships with widgets and munitions. They also seem to have been gaining ground on building commercial shipping and I presume that their own Merchant Marine was growing, not just they were building ships for Manticorian companie or even outright export freighter market.

Especialy Manticore is going to push really hard to regain any portions of the shipping markets before everybody else (former SL systems, the IAE, ROH etc) gets to the point where they are either building merchant shipping to service their own needs and for hire plus those who would also swing right into buidling for sale.
Manticore may have that large MM and probably most of the crews still avilable but they have to get out there and rebuild the customer base and reestablish themselves on both former and now new routes for shipping before others can step in and take up the vacuums created with Lacoon I & LL
Looking forward to see what RFC come up with for this.



There are independant systems with their industry destroyed but their trained manpower still intact, they likely wont be as big of a work force individually as Manticore and Grayson had before OB but there are at least 7 systems that can assist the GA by lending workers to Grayson and Manticore in return for rebuilding of their industry. Those neutral systems wont be able to rebuild all by themselvs in a timely manner but if they assist/join the GA they can provide the SEM and Grayson with trained workforce and in return in a few years they will get their industry rebuild and then some.


There are alot of systems in the post war time frame that will be eager to invest and support the GA because they know that being neutral means nothing to the League. Plus there are at least 9 systems that would be wiling to go all in with the GA when they find their names on the list for Bucaneer 2.0. The GA has a lot of options for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson they just have to be willing to use them.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by kzt   » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:18 pm

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Unless you have an actual navy with operational experience with at least multi-squadron level operations you don't have the trained manpower to run a navy. It's like grabbing 300 of us and handing us an Aegis destroyer to run. There are probably a dozen people here who have real-world useful experience, the rest of us, no matter how much skill we might have at our regular jobs, really can't do much for weeks at best.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Brigade XO   » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:40 am

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I don't think that the GA has the people though they may have the interest in helping train the soon to be SDFs of the former League and of the Verge etc worlds.

Firstly, for however poorly the SLN did in this war, it still has a massive amount of people trained (by various standards) who can at least operate existing SLN or SLN export/ surplus ships. That means that all of ships that were in active duty status after the SLN surrendered should be able to deal with what could be termed "local" needs of commerce protection and some fair level of deterent against short term warlordism or just adventurism by gunboat amoung the systems.

Those systems who had any SDF have a leg up on it but those who have something more than a few DDs and a Crusier or two- and crewed by their own experienced people- are going to at least start with a core and enlarge from there.

The SLN still has a massive amount of people. Yes, there is a lot of really poor officers and a lot of incompetent people as measured against the GA. On the other hand, there are also a lot of good, competent and effective people who have survived there even if held back because of politics etc. While Frontier Fleet is at least as affeced by the rest of the troubles in the politics and policies of the SLN, they were at least out doing active naval work actual commerce protection. Also Yes, a large number of the FF people were infected with the whole OFS corruption but there are- we have seen a number- who would be both very happy to be out from under the OFS yoke and who are good naval commanders.

There is also the fact that SLN (especialy the Marines) has apparently drawn a massive amount of its staffing from Verge and beyond systems. Remember that, from what we have been told and shown, a great number of SLN personal seem to think of themselves as members of their home worlds, not just Citizens of the SL. Particulary with the SLN needing to downsize (they are being restrained inside the nominal boarders of the former SL and NOT being alowed to go outside) as they shed people- and possibly they will shrink becuause of the "home system first" perspective, a number will find employment in existing or newly created SDFs of all those systems.

How many of the former SL and Independent systems along with those who were OFS Protectorates (or just had soon to fall politicians because OFS/FF isn't going to be available) are going to be able to fund much of anything beyond a few second (or third) hand ships>

It is possible that the GA can make some money by essentialy renting naval people to these new SDFs but in terms of what matters, doing that would be more focused on bringing these systems into new treaty and trade agreements while trying to improve each local system's attitude on the GA, more particularly Manticore. It's the Harrington Plan....good relations though honest dealing and self interest on both sides.

Besides, producting any version of "Manticore Lite" export versions of warships is going to way down on the manufactureing horizon of SEM just now. First they have to build up to some signifcant level of orbital manufacturing. Perhaps licenseing older LAC variations built at Bolt Hole would work. Manticore is also going to be working at also fostering investment and expansion/improvements in the manufacturing capasity of it's new systems in both Talbot and Silesia. That is truly the only stable and lasting way to both improve those systems while bringing them completely into the SEM political and ecomomic framework. They have to participate in the growth and internalize the attitudes that represent Manticore at it's best.
Besides, that's a lot of workforce and potential that can restart the Manticoreian export machine at the same time it brings the populations into the fold.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Sigs   » Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:27 am

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kzt wrote:Unless you have an actual navy with operational experience with at least multi-squadron level operations you don't have the trained manpower to run a navy. It's like grabbing 300 of us and handing us an Aegis destroyer to run. There are probably a dozen people here who have real-world useful experience, the rest of us, no matter how much skill we might have at our regular jobs, really can't do much for weeks at best.

I'm not suggesting that they pick random civilians from the street put them in a LAC and tell them you are now in the navy operate this ship. They will still need a basic level of training to introduce them to military life and their jobs of running the ships. The On the spot training would be after they get their training they go back home with a cadre of instructors from the GA that lend their experience and training to make them a cohesive unit. If it was a system or two that needed a navy quickly then the GA can provide security while training the personnel in RMN/RHN/GSN/BSDF schools and then placing them in regular navy squadrons for a further 3 or 4 years of on the job training before they are concentrated back in their home system to start taking over their own defence with a much reduced GA training cadre that stays put for support. Since we are talking about dozens if not hundreds of systems being in need of a navy no matter how small corners have to be cut. When you consider that most verge systems will require at most a squadron or two of LACs for immediate security and only over the next couple of decades would they need to expand to DD's, CL's, CA's and higher the initial navy they would need would amount into the low thousands when you account for the support element.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Sigs   » Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:20 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:I don't think that the GA has the people though they may have the interest in helping train the soon to be SDFs of the former League and of the Verge etc worlds.


The verge systems that need between 1-3 squadrons of LAC’s are not going to be that much of a draw on GA resources. In 4 years during the truce the RHN managed to get 48 CLAC’s from bolthole alone, which means that once they went to war and opened production in the rest of the Republic they could have easily build twice that number of CLAC’s in the 3 years of the war. So the RHN could very well have over 120+ CLAC’s even after accounting for the losses during the war. So their deployable LAC number at least 24,000 LAC’s plus likely at least an equal number of LAC’s deployed in the republic(Haven itself, Bolthole and throughout the rest of the republic). With the assumption that Haven alone has somewhere in the neighbourhood of 48,000 LAC’s. That is before we account for the potentially 10,000-15,000 RMN/GSN LAC’s. Deploying 4-8,000 LAC’s to verge systems while at the same time recruiting people from those systems, bringing them back to a central training location and training them. Start from basic training, trade training and then give them intensive 6 month to a year as a formed unit under the command of GA personnel and deploy them back to their home systems. They don’t have to be elite level crews, they have to be just good enough to fight off pirates without killing themselves in the process. Then withdraw everyone but 2 LAC’s crews who will continue training them on site to bring their competence up. Once they deploy they will go as a complete military, 1-2 squadrons of LAC’s, supported by logistics, technicians, admin etc… we are talking about a navy of initially at most 2,000 people operating 8-16 LAC’s and doing only field maintenance.


For the core/shell systems that need a military it will be a bit more complicated but ultimately there are hundreds of thousands of surplus Allied personnel shortly after the GA starts retiring SD’s, forts and the BSDF gets its new SD(P)’s which might reduce their crew needs by 50% or more. When all is added up this would free up significant numbers of Allied personnel which would allow for standing up of training establishments to train shell/core system navies starting with LAC’s all the way up to SD(P)’s. This wont be an overnight job but it will start by giving them a solid foundation in logistics, administration and once the crews are done in combat power. Most core/shell worlds will have customs, search and rescue, policing etc… within their system, basically amalgamate those organizations to form the core of their navy since most core/shell worlds might already be operating LAC’s in many of those non combat roles already.

Firstly, for however poorly the SLN did in this war, it still has a massive amount of people trained (by various standards) who can at least operate existing SLN or SLN export/ surplus ships. That means that all of ships that were in active duty status after the SLN surrendered should be able to deal with what could be termed "local" needs of commerce protection and some fair level of deterent against short term warlordism or just adventurism by gunboat amoung the systems.
How many systems that leave the League would want the SLN protecting them after what the SLN did?

As for the verge that will require a lot of GA oversight which might cause further animosoity with the League. It might be worth it in the short term but it would have to be done right so that it doesn’t cause too much friction between the GA and the League and it doesn’t create an image that the GA is allowing the SLN to go back to its old ways.

Those systems who had any SDF have a leg up on it but those who have something more than a few DDs and a Crusier or two- and crewed by their own experienced people- are going to at least start with a core and enlarge from there.
Most core/shell worlds will start with some form of policing and customs agency, it might not be a lot but if its folded into a navy it will give them something to build a navy around.

The SLN still has a massive amount of people. Yes, there is a lot of really poor officers and a lot of incompetent people as measured against the GA. On the other hand, there are also a lot of good, competent and effective people who have survived there even if held back because of politics etc. While Frontier Fleet is at least as affeced by the rest of the troubles in the politics and policies of the SLN, they were at least out doing active naval work actual commerce protection. Also Yes, a large number of the FF people were infected with the whole OFS corruption but there are- we have seen a number- who would be both very happy to be out from under the OFS yoke and who are good naval commanders.
It is likely that the SLN will start losing people once systems gain independence and that might very well make the difference for many systems when they get even 20,000 SLN members returning to their home system but I don’t know how helpful it would be for FF members to go back to the verge/protectorates and serve in their navies.

There is also the fact that SLN (especialy the Marines) has apparently drawn a massive amount of its staffing from Verge and beyond systems. Remember that, from what we have been told and shown, a great number of SLN personal seem to think of themselves as members of their home worlds, not just Citizens of the SL. Particulary with the SLN needing to downsize (they are being restrained inside the nominal boarders of the former SL and NOT being alowed to go outside) as they shed people- and possibly they will shrink becuause of the "home system first" perspective, a number will find employment in existing or newly created SDFs of all those systems.
The SLN Does not need to downsize, it might lose people whose home systems secede from the League but ultimately the League would want technological parity with the GA but it will still have hundreds of core/shell systems that will demand permanently station forces in their system one way or another.

How many of the former SL and Independent systems along with those who were OFS Protectorates (or just had soon to fall politicians because OFS/FF isn't going to be available) are going to be able to fund much of anything beyond a few second (or third) hand ships>
They don’t need to fund anything right now, they could be donated or sold by the GA to those verse systems with a payment plan that starts in the 1940’s when they would be well on their way to improving their economy. The GA’s survival depends on those verge systems, many of those systems will have immense loyalty to the GA and they will have distrust and outright hatred for the League combined with almost desperate desire to improve their lot. That’s like having 100 or even 500 Graysons, with the massive number of verge systems and the devastation that Manticore, Grayson and Beowulf suffered it will take a while to start bringing them up to standard but ultimately once the GA recovers they can end up with a few hundred very loyal, very motivated allies who will do anything to avoid being enslaved by the League once again. Core/shell systems that are afraid of the League and Verge systems with ties to the GA military and owing their loyalty and independence to the GA might give pause to the League 20,30,40 or 50 years down the line.
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:31 am

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Theemile wrote:Actually a single LAC wing will probably handle 98-99% of traditional Pirates. It has enough presence units to cover most interesting locations in a system simultaneously, and support crew and maintenance rotations. A single modern LAC can rip a hole in a classic DD/CL, and a squadron can easily handle most of such ships.

The average Pirate is a old FG/DD/CL or 2 and runs on margins - they are not directly supported by governments and can not get free repairs or replenishment. Tangling with a warship, any warship, even if they "win", is a loss for them, as their own ship will need to be repaired out of their pockets. And that one missile that was fired - it just cost every member of the pirate crew $3000.
And Pirates can only flourish where a number of things are favorable to them. You can almost think of it like a fire triangle; remove any component (fuel, oxygen, or heat) and the fire dies.

Pirates need:
1) sufficient valuable prey to consistently turn a profit
2) sufficiently safe areas to lay in wait for that prey (normally in normal space in the periphery of star systems)
3) sufficiently non-existent or slow reaction times to enable them to capture and escape with their prey
4) systems willing to turn a blind eye to fencing of the pirated cargo and ships
5) businessmen willing to finance the piracy
6) arms merchants willing to provide ammo and yard maintenance/repair

Take any of those away and piracy in that area will rapidly die. Even a few squadrons of old-style LACs were enough to make 2 & 3 problematic for Pirates. Sure the pirates would almost always be able to run from the LACs. But while running they're not grabbing prey, or having the time to capture ships and cargo.

I suspect that in most of the League systems, even if they don't have much of a SDF, piracy won't be much of an issue because potential pirates will be missing out on the support side of those requirements. That League or Shell worlds; even ones that left the League aren't likely to become havens of support for pirates. And most verge worlds don't get enough traffic to make it cost effective for pirates to try to hunt there even if there's no system defenders to try to chase them off.

Silesia was a special case, the perfect storm of weak corrupt central government, combined with enough economic power to generate sufficient trade to prey upon; topped off with a balance of power of the surrounding systems that kept any of them from stepping in an ending the long festering situation. That combination is probably quite rare in the universe - so most places won't have that kind of piracy problem.

([i]Unless the Malign artificially creates a piracy/covert commerce raiding threat[i] then they don't need to worry about economic viability they just need to produce the fear and concerns about safety that they can then exploit. If they go down that route then systems will need defenses must closer to the anti-raiding levels you discussed)
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Re: Financing the rebuilding of the SKM and Grayson industry
Post by kzt   » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:25 am

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A freighter alone, without 6 million tons of aircars, is worth several billion. So you don't need to consistently turn a profit, you just need to get lucky once. Assume cargo is 1 million aircars you can just about give away for $10,000 each, you have just made 62 billion or so. Assume owner gets half, and divide by the 200 crew. Each gets $155 million.

How many trips are you going to sign up for after that?
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