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How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?

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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:47 pm

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Dauntless wrote:As there is no immediate (this year) threat, then QE3 and the gov will be under pressure to cut spending naval spending. epically they have to rebuild the yards before they can make any more ships


There is an immediate(right this minute) threat so they should continue with the assumption that they can be attacked by an enemy fleet at any time and make the best arrangements they can to protect their territory and when they find the enemy industrial and military targets take the fight to them. The League in the entire war managed to destroy exactly 3 destroyers before they can defend themselves and managed to kill a total of less than 3,000 Manticorans and destroy another handful of LACs in the entire war, on the other hand the MA managed to destroy all three of Manticore's orbital stations, three of Beowulfs stations along with at least 50,000,000 people from the alliance and that is before we account the destruction of the industry over Grayson or the fact that it looks to Manticore and Haven that the MA manipulated them into a war that killed a whole bunch of their military personnel or the untold millions that died as a result of the MA's manipulation of the League in terms of Operation Bucaneer or all of the verge and protectorates revolts that the MA started to implicate Manticore.


As for the yards? They don't need the yards to build new ships, they have Bolthole to build new ships for the GA to put into service.

The GA does not know why the MA launched all the attacks using covert means, they can guess but at the end of the day someone who spend 600 years planning something probably planned for a fleet of their own as well when one considers that they don't have manpower problems like any other navy might have. The MA might have 5 SD's of their own or they might have 1,000 SD(P)finishing construction, working up or ready to go. The GA cannot make assumptions considering that they know only a fraction of 1% of what the MA is, their plans and their strengths/weaknesses.





now cutting spending does not mean taking the high ride approach of build only LACs and the odd cruiser. it just means they do not need to be building hundreds of SD(P)s on a we need them tomorrow approach.
Manticore has between 120-150 SD(P)'s to protect ~50 systems including Manticore HS, Trevors Star and Beowulf which would all expect/need significant defences. This is before the Grand Fleet component is accounted for as well as all their commitment to protect their new territories. That is in no wat shape or form a legitimate fleet to defend something the size of the SEM. If they don't at least double if not triple their SD(P)'s they will depend on the RHN and GSN to reinforce the RMN in order to protect Manticoran space.

particularly as mentioned above they are going to need a year/2 to get to the point where they can even BUILD a SD(P).
Manticore yards are not required to build Bolthole SD(P)'s.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by munroburton   » Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:35 am

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Sigs wrote:Manticore has between 120-150 SD(P)'s to protect ~50 systems including Manticore HS, Trevors Star and Beowulf which would all expect/need significant defences. This is before the Grand Fleet component is accounted for as well as all their commitment to protect their new territories. That is in no wat shape or form a legitimate fleet to defend something the size of the SEM. If they don't at least double if not triple their SD(P)'s they will depend on the RHN and GSN to reinforce the RMN in order to protect Manticoran space.


I'd quibble with that - they have 120-150 SD(P)s available for power projection. For system defense, they have MK25 pods and standalone Keyhole platforms, plus god knows how many LACs and forts.

It's an opportunity they can't waste. They know the League can't threaten them for the next decade or so, so they have to try and project a less threatening profile("Look, we really didn't try to take you over!") whilst still presenting a very tough nut to crack.

It's a delicate balancing act so that the League does not need to worry too much about being invaded again, but is also reluctant to embark on any revanchist expeditions. Especially as it would need a truly enormous Navy to protect Sol from a wormhole-assisted strike by the Grand Fleet at the same time it dispatched enough ships to defeat the entire GA assembled at Manticore.

Manticore does not have to take sole responsibility for defending Beowulf. That is the Beowulfan Navy's job - and I'm sure they're massively increasing military spending over there, increasing and modernising their fleet to a force comparable with Grayson's.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:17 am

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munroburton wrote:
I'd quibble with that - they have 120-150 SD(P)s available for power projection. For system defense, they have MK25 pods and standalone Keyhole platforms, plus god knows how many LACs and forts.

Fixed defences are great and may lessen the need for large mobile fleets in defence but they do not eliminate the need for a mobile component. Fixed defences need Command platforms which no matter how well hidden and well armoured are still vulnerable once discovered, if someone takes out your command platforms your defensive capabilities become questionable.

It's an opportunity they can't waste. They know the League can't threaten them for the next decade or so, so they have to try and project a less threatening profile("Look, we really didn't try to take you over!") whilst still presenting a very tough nut to crack.
Its all fine to present a less threatening profile so as not to piss off the league over the next decade or two but at the same time it doesent matter what the league will do in 10-20 years if the SEM is not around to see it because they neglected the RMN's SD(P) strength and the MA crushed them in a quick war. How long do you think Haven will stick around before they decide that they don't need to invest their ships to bail out the SEM when the SEM is not interested in defending themselves?

It's a delicate balancing act so that the League does not need to worry too much about being invaded again, but is also reluctant to embark on any revanchist expeditions. Especially as it would need a truly enormous Navy to protect Sol from a wormhole-assisted strike by the Grand Fleet at the same time it dispatched enough ships to defeat the entire GA assembled at Manticore.
Not really, say 500 core/shell worlds remain in the League, if each can support 100 SD(P)'s that is 5000 SD(P)'s, the Leagues industry is still mostly intact except for Sol System so they can still support that fleet size. The SLN wont need to protect each and every system with a massive fleet if all they have to do is hit every WH and destroy the picket and block the terminus from further use to the Grand Fleet hell save for the Manticore WH Junction and a few others the SLN might even capture them all and allow more internal movement while denying it to the GA, whatever junction the SLN cannot completely capture they can block unless the Grand Fleet is interested in WH assault. Once that happens all movement to the GA and from the GA will have to take the long way around

Manticore does not have to take sole responsibility for defending Beowulf. That is the Beowulfan Navy's job - and I'm sure they're massively increasing military spending over there, increasing and modernising their fleet to a force comparable with Grayson's.
The GSN is probably in the neighbourhood of 100-120 SD(P)s all on their own, so the RMN will have 120-150 SD(P)s for defending 50 systems and the GSN and the BSDF would maintain an equal force for only 1 system each?
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by munroburton   » Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:57 pm

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Sigs wrote:Fixed defences are great and may lessen the need for large mobile fleets in defence but they do not eliminate the need for a mobile component. Fixed defences need Command platforms which no matter how well hidden and well armoured are still vulnerable once discovered, if someone takes out your command platforms your defensive capabilities become questionable.

They are retaining a mobile element, not transitioning to pure fixed defense arrangements.

I do not see what makes a 10 or 15 million ton fort incapable of serving as a command platform. At the start of the first Battle of Manticore, it was implied that Caparelli could have taken command of all forces available(but chose not to override D'orville), from the Admiralty's planetside facilities due to the FTL comm network.

Its all fine to present a less threatening profile so as not to piss off the league over the next decade or two but at the same time it doesent matter what the league will do in 10-20 years if the SEM is not around to see it because they neglected the RMN's SD(P) strength and the MA crushed them in a quick war. How long do you think Haven will stick around before they decide that they don't need to invest their ships to bail out the SEM when the SEM is not interested in defending themselves?

What ridiculous arguments. Haven isn't going to abandon the SEM willy-nilly. Nor is Manticore scrapping its entire defenses.

The Alignment does not have the ability to crush Manticore directly or they wouldn't have bothered with Oyster Bay. And they screwed up with that, because Manticore will be focused on doctrines to prevent/mitigate future similar attacks.

Not really, say 500 core/shell worlds remain in the League, if each can support 100 SD(P)'s that is 5000 SD(P)'s, the Leagues industry is still mostly intact except for Sol System so they can still support that fleet size. The SLN wont need to protect each and every system with a massive fleet if all they have to do is hit every WH and destroy the picket and block the terminus from further use to the Grand Fleet hell save for the Manticore WH Junction and a few others the SLN might even capture them all and allow more internal movement while denying it to the GA, whatever junction the SLN cannot completely capture they can block unless the Grand Fleet is interested in WH assault. Once that happens all movement to the GA and from the GA will have to take the long way around

What you just did was demonstrate how, if the League is determined to destroy Manticore in the long term, it cannot be stopped. As wealthy as it is, Manticore can't afford to build the thousands of wallers required to fend the entire League off. They can extract a terrible price, but that's it.

Manticore's two recent victorous wars were only won by temporary tech advantages. The League could catch up in a handful of years, as Haven already proved.

However, I think you're greatly overestimating the rest of the League's willingness to fight to reverse Sol's humiliation. Many of them are probably having second thoughts about allowing the SLN to be so large and so centrally controlled again, given how close it came to being used against them by out-of-control mandarins.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:57 pm

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munroburton wrote:They are retaining a mobile element, not transitioning to pure fixed defense arrangements.

I do not see what makes a 10 or 15 million ton fort incapable of serving as a command platform. At the start of the first Battle of Manticore, it was implied that Caparelli could have taken command of all forces available(but chose not to override D'orville), from the Admiralty's planetside facilities due to the FTL comm network.


So if the System Commander decided to pull the forts from the junction to reinforce one of the planets that would be a go? Forts can act as command posts but forts are still vulnerable because they are still essentially fixed defences, they can move but not too fast and they cannot go to meet the enemy. No body that has fought a war like the war that Manticore and Haven fought will disregard SD(P)'s when planning their defences, SD(P)s might be an offensive weapon but they are also a very good defensive platform as well.

What ridiculous arguments. Haven isn't going to abandon the SEM willy-nilly. Nor is Manticore scrapping its entire defenses.


Manticore has 120 SD(P)'s...150 if we are being generous. Haven already is protecting their Capital plus Bolthole as well as the rest of their territory and providing the bulk of the Grand Fleet since the RMN would not be able to swing more than 20-40 SD(P)'s for service in the Grand Fleet and Grayson cant really swing more than 60-80 if they are feeling very generous. At some point Haven might decide to back off from fronting the defensive forces for a joint effort that Bolthole is bound to become, for a joint fleet that the Grand Fleet is and provide a backup for the RMN when the shit hits the fan. They don't have to abandon Manticore, they just have to make sure to let Manticore know that they will not be providing more then their share and will not be stepping in to defend Manticore if Manticore is not willing to spend resources to defend itself.

The Alignment does not have the ability to crush Manticore directly or they wouldn't have bothered with Oyster Bay. And they screwed up with that, because Manticore will be focused on doctrines to prevent/mitigate future similar attacks.

They don't know that and realistically they cannot make that assumption. If they know that the MA has been planning their rise to power for 600+ years you have to assume they planned to build a fleet as well, and since they likely orchestrated at least a part of the MAnticore-Haven war they were definitely paying attention to the growth in size and tech improvements.

There are any number of reasons why someone would go for Oyster Bay rather than conventional attack chief amongst them would be that if someone showed up and fought an open battle with Manticore that involved 200,300, 400 or 500 SD's/SD(P)'s and crushed the RMN then someone in the League will be bound to notice. Then there were the problems of the RMN now being defeated and the SLN swings in and grabs up the junction and all of the provocations the MA started are now useless. The MA didn't want to conquer the League, they wanted to destroy the League and rebuild it around the RF.






What you just did was demonstrate how, if the League is determined to destroy Manticore in the long term, it cannot be stopped. As wealthy as it is, Manticore can't afford to build the thousands of wallers required to fend the entire League off. They can extract a terrible price, but that's it.
That is future Manticore's problem, current Manticore's problem is finding the MA and beating them so that they can have the chance to worry about the League in the future.

There are ways for the GA to offset the League and their industry but it will take a lot of effort and coordination. Many of the Protectorates and Verge systems would do significantly well with some guidance and industrial support and expertise so that 40 years down the line they can be of use to the GA in stopping any League resurgence. There are a hell of a lot more Verge and Protectorates then there are core and shell systems. Then many core/shell systems that Leave the League will naturally gravitate towards Alliance with the GA or forming alliances/nations with their neighbours.

Manticore's two recent victorous wars were only won by temporary tech advantages. The League could catch up in a handful of years, as Haven already proved.
That is why you invest in any verge/protectorate system which quickly gains stability and get them in your sphere. If the SKM and get Grayson from where they started to where they were in 1920 in such a short period I don't see why the GA cant get a lot of very motivated verge systems a quarter of the way to where Grayson was in 2-3 times the length of time. Same goes for the SEM and the Republic of Haven, they will both be consolidating their positions and increasing their industry from where it is and they will both be heavily motivated to do so as fast as they can.

However, I think you're greatly overestimating the rest of the League's willingness to fight to reverse Sol's humiliation. Many of them are probably having second thoughts about allowing the SLN to be so large and so centrally controlled again, given how close it came to being used against them by out-of-control mandarins.
I think their desire to be protected would outweight their fear of the SLN. They can put in safeguards to prevent the SLN from going bad again. Hell they can create a core fleet that is the SLN and then each member system has its own System defence force that is trained, organized and equiped equal to the SLN and those SDF's could act as the National guard, if there is a war they are mobilized if there is no war those SDF's remain in system hands. The central government would be alot more carefull if they have to answer to a bunch of systems with their own SDF'f that can be federalized and then a portion of the SDF's that are exclusivly under the control of the system in question and cannot be federalized.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by kzt   » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:54 am

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The problem is scale. You can’t divide your fleet up to cover several hundred times as much volume as you were responsible for and do a good, or even marginally acceptable job. You need an order of magnitude more cruiser class ships just as a start, assuming you want to have them see an RMN ship more than once a decade.

And also remember the ratio of three ships being needed to keep one on station.

So if you want to make that kind of promise you’ll need to double at least the naval budget, and seriously cut back on the SD, LACs and other manpower intense designs as you need them to crew your huge number of light vessels.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:58 pm

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Sigs wrote:As for the yards? They don't need the yards to build new ships, they have Bolthole to build new ships for the GA to put into service.
In the extreme short term; sure.

But I can't see Manticore, with their history of naval self-sufficiency, being willing to be completely dependent on allied production of hulls. They're going to feel (and correctly in my opinion) that their medium to long term naval security requires that they rebuild their domestic warship construction capability.

They may not need to ramp it all the way back up to where it was at the peak of the war, but they're going to at the very minimum want to rebuild it to the late pre-war capabilities that King Roger ushered in during his naval buildup. (And the missing production lines will need to be far in excess of what existed back then given the drastic increase in missile usage)


So, yes, despite the existence of Bolthole, I expect Manticore to be sinking a fair bit of their naval budgets into rebuilding domestic yard and supporting manufacturing infrastructure.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Theemile   » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:55 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:In the extreme short term; sure.

But I can't see Manticore, with their history of naval self-sufficiency, being willing to be completely dependent on allied production of hulls. They're going to feel (and correctly in my opinion) that their medium to long term naval security requires that they rebuild their domestic warship construction capability.

They may not need to ramp it all the way back up to where it was at the peak of the war, but they're going to at the very minimum want to rebuild it to the late pre-war capabilities that King Roger ushered in during his naval buildup. (And the missing production lines will need to be far in excess of what existed back then given the drastic increase in missile usage)


So, yes, despite the existence of Bolthole, I expect Manticore to be sinking a fair bit of their naval budgets into rebuilding domestic yard and supporting manufacturing infrastructure.



I suspect that anything coming out of Bolthole will always be a "Havenite" design, with Manticorian technology - either bolted on, or later, integrated into the design. By this, I mean that the design will be a Warlord-D, a Mars-E, or similiar type of design currently under construction, but with Manticorian firecontrol, grasers or whatever can be integrated into the ships.

We will probably see construction broken into multiple tech levels based on where they are in construction.

At first, it will be systems easily integrated into the ships already under construction in a manner that will not interfere with their construction rates. This will probably be broken into several integration groups, so there are multiple consistent ships with similiar or identical loadouts; as the ships are closer to laying down with less of the ship constructed, they will have a higher % of Manty technology added. Ships laid down with Manticorian tech will probably have it more pronounced (Like Beta^2 nodes and ERM tubes), and essentially be a new mark of ship, though they will still have the same basic design as before so as not to interrupt construction flow.

Later, we might see some "clean sheet" designs - but once again I think they will follow Havenite design principles more than Manticorian. But these designs will be optimized for the then state of the art tech, not an old design reworked so it can fire better weapons.

In short, I'm fairly certain that a Nike or Sag-C (or descendant) is never coming out of Bolthole.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:11 pm

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Theemile wrote:I suspect that anything coming out of Bolthole will always be a "Havenite" design, with Manticorian technology - either bolted on, or later, integrated into the design. By this, I mean that the design will be a Warlord-D, a Mars-E, or similiar type of design currently under construction, but with Manticorian firecontrol, grasers or whatever can be integrated into the ships.

We will probably see construction broken into multiple tech levels based on where they are in construction.

At first, it will be systems easily integrated into the ships already under construction in a manner that will not interfere with their construction rates. This will probably be broken into several integration groups, so there are multiple consistent ships with similiar or identical loadouts; as the ships are closer to laying down with less of the ship constructed, they will have a higher % of Manty technology added. Ships laid down with Manticorian tech will probably have it more pronounced (Like Beta^2 nodes and ERM tubes), and essentially be a new mark of ship, though they will still have the same basic design as before so as not to interrupt construction flow.

Later, we might see some "clean sheet" designs - but once again I think they will follow Havenite design principles more than Manticorian. But these designs will be optimized for the then state of the art tech, not an old design reworked so it can fire better weapons.

In short, I'm fairly certain that a Nike or Sag-C (or descendant) is never coming out of Bolthole.

I'm not even sure how much work Bolthole was planning to do on smaller Alliance designs. The only part that was really talked about was for SD(P)s, especially getting Haven and Beowulf their own Apollo capable units. Hulls and basic fittings from Bolthole, Keyhole II, missiles, and other 'fancy' gear from Beowulf using Manticore's designs.

That's probably a bit easier to mix and match than on a design like Nike, or Roland.

Though we haven't heard anything about Haven's cruisers since they revealed their SD(P) & CLAC fleet. So I don't know if those got more competitive or if they're still saddled with last-war single-drive missiles. If they aren't significantly improved then Haven is going to want to get upgraded units built -- but given their lack of long range independent patrolling that's probably not quite as high a priority for them as getting some Apollo SD(P)s of their own.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:40 pm

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kzt wrote:The problem is scale. You can’t divide your fleet up to cover several hundred times as much volume as you were responsible for and do a good, or even marginally acceptable job. You need an order of magnitude more cruiser class ships just as a start, assuming you want to have them see an RMN ship more than once a decade.

And also remember the ratio of three ships being needed to keep one on station.

So if you want to make that kind of promise you’ll need to double at least the naval budget, and seriously cut back on the SD, LACs and other manpower intense designs as you need them to crew your huge number of light vessels.


The RMN does not have to do this alone, as long as all members of the GA carry their weight in regards to fleet then they would have enough. We are not talking about picking thousands of systems and investing at the same time, the GA should pick the most likely to suceed and invest as much as they can in those systems as soon as possible. There are going to be core and shell worlds that will naturaly gravitate towards the GA and they can assist as well.

The goal here is to find the most likely to suceed, give them the best tools that you can as well as assistance in terms of expertise and training and let those systems pull themselvs out of the hole. This wouldent be meant to do everything for each system, this would be intented to give a few systems assistance to start up their recovery. In the mean time all other systems that have any degree of stability and acceptable government would be equiped to at the very least protect themselvs, recruit people from any stable systems and train them in centralized GA training facilities to an acceptable standard, once people are trained they are returned home and the GA donates or sells them export version of the Cimeterre so that they can at least protect themselves from pirates. At some point those systems become capable of expanding their domestic industry on their own with little outside help, with more time and bigger industry they also expand their fleets to protect themselves and their newly build industry. Hell you can give the League reduced rates to any of the WH if they provide industrial and financial assistance to the Verge and Protectorates, but even without them the League and the SLN painted themselves as the bad guys to way too many core and shell worlds and the GA the good guys to way too many core and shell worlds which to me means that a lot of those systems will gravitate to the GA and will be willing to set up trade relations with the Verge and protectorates under the supervision of the GA. A lot of industrial potential would be coming into the GA Sphere of influence, some of which would be willing to help out the Verge.
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