Honorverse favorite one-liners

ART lessons continue...

“I see. But if we can’t send our wall of battle out to fight their wall of battle, what do we do?”
“Actually, Sir, if I may, I’d like to bring in one of our analysts to present a little additional background before I respond to that question.”

The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”

ART lesson...

Certainly in a shorter time than we can recover. In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”
“You’re joking.”

Captain Gweon CO of the Office of Economic Analysis over at ONI.

Kolokoltsov nodded a bit brusquely.
“In that case, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, the critical point is simply that any extended war with the Manties is going to be an economic as well as an overtly military conflict. At the moment, their technological advantages are overwhelming, but our economic and industrial power is many times as great as theirs, even allowing for their new alliance with the Havenites. The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”
“I beg your pardon?”

I don't understand the fact that these two passages seem to contradict each other. If the League's economic and industrial powers is many times as great as Manticore and Haven combined then how can the first passage be true?

cthia wrote:ART lesson...

Certainly in a shorter time than we can recover. In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”
“You’re joking.”

Captain Gweon CO of the Office of Economic Analysis over at ONI.

Kolokoltsov nodded a bit brusquely.
“In that case, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, the critical point is simply that any extended war with the Manties is going to be an economic as well as an overtly military conflict. At the moment, their technological advantages are overwhelming, but our economic and industrial power is many times as great as theirs, even allowing for their new alliance with the Havenites. The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”
“I beg your pardon?”

I don't understand the fact that these two passages seem to contradict each other. If the League's economic and industrial powers is many times as great as Manticore and Haven combined then how can the first passage be true?

An interesting question! Part of the answer lies in some earlier text and some text in between those two quotes.

"One is that they have access to the Silesian Confederacy and now to the entire Republic of Haven. The latter, in particular, represents an entirely new market for them--one which has been close for the last twenty or thirty T-years. In addition, they have control of the wormholes they've denied to us, which means they can continue to reach markets and trading partners in the Verge and even in the Shell we literally cannot reach."

"I believe those projections are solid. And I'm very much afraid that even they rest on some fairly optimistic assumptions."
. . .
"The two most problematic of those assumptions are that, first, we'll be able to muster the resources on the fedral level to support an ongoing, lengthy, conflict. And, second, that the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough for us to overcome the other side's technological advantages."

So, it appears the prediction is based on a model which assumes that Manticore continues to control access to the wormholes and denies access to the Solarian League, and in which the League has to spend money to close the technology gap, build a new fleet, and engage in a military conflict lasting many years. Given those conditions, the model predicts that Manticore and Haven, with their much wider market reach through the wormhole network and initial technological advantage, will rapidly build an enormous economy while the Solarian economy shrinks. Even then, it would take ten or fifteen years for the Grand Alliance to surpass the League economy.

It is an interesting conclusion.

Thanks SWM, I was beating my head up over that one.

cthia wrote:ART lesson...

Certainly in a shorter time than we can recover. In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”
“You’re joking.”

Captain Gweon CO of the Office of Economic Analysis over at ONI.

Kolokoltsov nodded a bit brusquely.
“In that case, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, the critical point is simply that any extended war with the Manties is going to be an economic as well as an overtly military conflict. At the moment, their technological advantages are overwhelming, but our economic and industrial power is many times as great as theirs, even allowing for their new alliance with the Havenites. The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”
“I beg your pardon?”

I don't understand the fact that these two passages seem to contradict each other. If the League's economic and industrial powers is many times as great as Manticore and Haven combined then how can the first passage be true?

In the first part he is speaking of the economy, the fire that pays for any war effort. Currently the SL's economy is larger, but the GA's is growing, especially because a result of the war is to steal economic influence away from the SL.

The core planets of the SL are economically mature and fully developed, with low economic growth levels, So they will not grow much in the coming years without an economic paradym change. The Protectorates and the Verge are the SL's growth, and these and at risk of being stolen by the GA or just leaving while the SL is distracted elsewhere. Their leaving will take their economies with them and deprive the developed Core worlds of markets, shrinking their economies. Combined with this is the loss of the wormhole network and the Manticoran Merchant Mariine 's Hulls, trade in the SL just ground to a halt and will take years to recover and will never be the same, with Manticore siphoning off economic power withthe wormholes. Overall, the SL's economy will shrink during this period.

On the GA side, many worlds in the GA's influence are under-developed (think Silensia and Talbott, let alone former Haven worlds )- if properly influenced and allowed investment capitol, they can prosper and expand their economies at high rates. Add to that the Manty controlled wormhole network and the massive Mantioran Merchant Marine. Over time, SL shippers will pay the GA premiums to transship goods to GA hulls and use GA controlled wormholes. All of this raises the economic power of the GA

So, the SL will be losing Economic power while the GA will be growing.

The 2nd part speaks about military capability - the SL is behind and needs to catch up. The already advanced economies of the SL can pour enormous amounts into R&D and construction NOW, and given time will catch upto the GA, which cannot afford the same level of investment NOW. (not to mention, the SLN is investing in technologies that they know are already possible, while the GA needs to further push the outer boundaries of science and military capabilities. After the economies flip, the SL's economy will be on a loosing footing, but the SLN, if properly funded and allowed to grow properly, can threaten the GA forces in 5-7 years and hold that threat until the 17-20 year mark.

SWM wrote:ART lesson...

Certainly in a shorter time than we can recover. In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”
“You’re joking.”

Captain Gweon CO of the Office of Economic Analysis over at ONI.

Kolokoltsov nodded a bit brusquely.
“In that case, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, the critical point is simply that any extended war with the Manties is going to be an economic as well as an overtly military conflict. At the moment, their technological advantages are overwhelming, but our economic and industrial power is many times as great as theirs, even allowing for their new alliance with the Havenites. The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.”
“I beg your pardon?”

I don't understand the fact that these two passages seem to contradict each other. If the League's economic and industrial powers is many times as great as Manticore and Haven combined then how can the first passage be true?

An interesting question! Part of the answer lies in some earlier text and some text in between those two quotes.

"One is that they have access to the Silesian Confederacy and now to the entire Republic of Haven. The latter, in particular, represents an entirely new market for them--one which has been close for the last twenty or thirty T-years. In addition, they have control of the wormholes they've denied to us, which means they can continue to reach markets and trading partners in the Verge and even in the Shell we literally cannot reach."

"I believe those projections are solid. And I'm very much afraid that even they rest on some fairly optimistic assumptions."
. . .
"The two most problematic of those assumptions are that, first, we'll be able to muster the resources on the fedral level to support an ongoing, lengthy, conflict. And, second, that the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough for us to overcome the other side's technological advantages."

So, it appears the prediction is based on a model which assumes that Manticore continues to control access to the wormholes and denies access to the Solarian League, and in which the League has to spend money to close the technology gap, build a new fleet, and engage in a military conflict lasting many years. Given those conditions, the model predicts that Manticore and Haven, with their much wider market reach through the wormhole network and initial technological advantage, will rapidly build an enormous economy while the Solarian economy shrinks. Even then, it would take ten or fifteen years for the Grand Alliance to surpass the League economy.

It is an interesting conclusion.

Forgive me for returning to this, but I'm sure I don't have to tell you how answers simply beget questions.

If those analysis, and projections are based on current conditions, it seems that the GA could intensify their position by implementing a trade embargo. They could seize shipments and carriers, especially to the important member states. They could really make the SLN feel the effects and lesson that time limit significantly, from perhaps ten to fifteen years, to maybe five to ten. One obvious drawback to that sort of stance might be the possibility of angering member states resulting in a cohesiveness, reminiscent of the GA, and mimicking what happenes on Earth after the attack on Pearl Harbor, with Yamamoto's quote 'I'm afraid we've awakened a sleeping giant.'

And of course those projections are based on the SLN retaining all of their member states. It seems this begs the GA to assume the correct posture. An opportunity dangles for the GA. I don't know if anyone remembers but Honor's strategy of alienating then courting member states to leave the League was brilliant.

Personally I'd like to see the GA starve the League. Can't get shipments, can't eat. Hunger has a way of sharpening one's focus. I know I am late to this party. Just rambling from the shock of those passages.

And it's good to actually see results from embargos and trade sanctions. I never seem to see any results of those here on Earth. Though I know there must be. Trade sanctions and embargos of the like seem too time dependent to me, unless imposed against small entities.

.

Theemile wrote:
In the first part he is speaking of the economy, the fire that pays for any war effort. Currently the SL's economy is larger, but the GA's is growing, especially because a result of the war is to steal economic influence away from the SL.

The core planets of the SL are economically mature and fully developed, with low economic growth levels, So they will not grow much in the coming years without an economic paradym change. The Protectorates and the Verge are the SL's growth, and these and at risk of being stolen by the GA or just leaving while the SL is distracted elsewhere. Their leaving will take their economies with them and deprive the developed Core worlds of markets, shrinking their economies. Combined with this is the loss of the wormhole network and the Manticoran Merchant Mariine 's Hulls, trade in the SL just ground to a halt and will take years to recover and will never be the same, with Manticore siphoning off economic power withthe wormholes. Overall, the SL's economy will shrink during this period.

On the GA side, many worlds in the GA's influence are under-developed (think Silensia and Talbott, let alone former Haven worlds )- if properly influenced and allowed investment capitol, they can prosper and expand their economies at high rates. Add to that the Manty controlled wormhole network and the massive Mantioran Merchant Marine. Over time, SL shippers will pay the GA premiums to transship goods to GA hulls and use GA controlled wormholes. All of this raises the economic power of the GA

So, the SL will be losing Economic power while the GA will be growing.

The 2nd part speaks about military capability - the SL is behind and needs to catch up. The already advanced economies of the SL can pour enormous amounts into R&D and construction NOW, and given time will catch upto the GA, which cannot afford the same level of investment NOW. (not to mention, the SLN is investing in technologies that they know are already possible, while the GA needs to further push the outer boundaries of science and military capabilities. After the economies flip, the SL's economy will be on a loosing footing, but the SLN, if properly funded and allowed to grow properly, can threaten the GA forces in 5-7 years and hold that threat until the 17-20 year mark.

Thanks for more enlightenment. You know, these discussions clearly point out the importance of our own Presidential advisors. Make the wrong decision and you can not just exacerbate the problem but miss an opportunity as well.

My call would be to blockade the Verge. Shut down all the revenue and trade there.

Again, I know all of you have already discussed this topic. Perhaps I will begin auditing some of the threads to catch up. You know, the practice of sitting in on college courses before enrolling?

Amaroq wrote:I have one from AAC (with a preemptive apology to Rose for any subsequent sobbing that may ensue):

They shouldn't have sent you out with so few ships, Your Grace, he told the light code of HMS Imperator.

Javier Giscard at the Battle of Lovat. Every time I reread that book this line makes me tear up because now I know what's coming. And it's followed by this heart-breaker:

"Eloi—" he began, his voice soft in the hurricane of alarms and devastation.
He never finished her name.

:Sniff:

Get out.

*helpless ugly sobbing*

"I'm already there
Don't make a sound
I'm the beat in your heart
I'm the moonlight shining down
I'm the whisper in the wind
And I'll be there until the end
Can you feel the love that we share
Oh I'm already there..."

roseandheather wrote:

Amaroq wrote:I have one from AAC (with a preemptive apology to Rose for any subsequent sobbing that may ensue):

They shouldn't have sent you out with so few ships, Your Grace, he told the light code of HMS Imperator.

Javier Giscard at the Battle of Lovat. Every time I reread that book this line makes me tear up because now I know what's coming. And it's followed by this heart-breaker:

"Eloi—" he began, his voice soft in the hurricane of alarms and devastation.
He never finished her name.

:Sniff:

Get out.

*helpless ugly sobbing*

"I'm already there
Don't make a sound
I'm the beat in your heart
I'm the moonlight shining down
I'm the whisper in the wind
And I'll be there until the end
Can you feel the love that we share
Oh I'm already there..."

I feel the pain as well. A hidden tragedy is that Eloi— never knew that Javier died with her name on his lips. Felonious tear jerker!

Ok, for you, a moment of silence rose.

About the Solarian economy, isn't most of the planets so heavily wrapped in bureaucratic red tape, bribes, graft and outright theft, that the Net economic power is much lower than the Gross numbers might indicate?