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Battle of Manticore

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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by Renegade13   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:10 pm

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Interesting discussion, although I haven't had the time to read every post.

But back to the original question and closely related ones.

Why did 8th Fleet have all the Apollo missiles? Because 8th Fleet had all of the Apollo-capable ships at that time. The decision (right or wrong) had been made to try to keep the offensive pressure up against Haven and make Haven commit more ships to their defensive posture. I recall that the system-defense variant pods were slow in being produced (some kind of production glitch); so that would explain why they weren't available for the BoM.

Part of this deployment posture was based on the belief that Haven would never commit that much of their fleet to an attack on Manticore itself. It was unthinkable - a long-range massive attack? No way, they thought. Over the course of the 20 year Manticore v Haven conflict, battle tactics changed - but the overall strategy changed as well... and some of the possibilities just weren't recognized. The original idea of advancing step by step along a string of planets changed to a 'planet-hopping' strategy that hit the most important locations, but bypassed lesser threats. Even Manticore wasn't really considering striking directly at the Haven capital - they just didn't think that it was possible.

BASED UPON WHAT THEY KNEW (or THOUGHT they knew), the defensive posture that Manticore had before the BoM was both logical and realistic. Just as their precautions and posture before the Oyster Bay attack were logical and realistic as well. You can't prepare for something that you just can't see or imagine... you can only prepare for the threats that you see (and even then, you usually won't have unlimited resources to prepare for).
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:44 pm

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Renegade13 wrote:Interesting discussion, although I haven't had the time to read every post.

But back to the original question and closely related ones.

Why did 8th Fleet have all the Apollo missiles? Because 8th Fleet had all of the Apollo-capable ships at that time. The decision (right or wrong) had been made to try to keep the offensive pressure up against Haven and make Haven commit more ships to their defensive posture. I recall that the system-defense variant pods were slow in being produced (some kind of production glitch); so that would explain why they weren't available for the BoM.

Part of this deployment posture was based on the belief that Haven would never commit that much of their fleet to an attack on Manticore itself. It was unthinkable - a long-range massive attack? No way, they thought. Over the course of the 20 year Manticore v Haven conflict, battle tactics changed - but the overall strategy changed as well... and some of the possibilities just weren't recognized. The original idea of advancing step by step along a string of planets changed to a 'planet-hopping' strategy that hit the most important locations, but bypassed lesser threats. Even Manticore wasn't really considering striking directly at the Haven capital - they just didn't think that it was possible.

BASED UPON WHAT THEY KNEW (or THOUGHT they knew), the defensive posture that Manticore had before the BoM was both logical and realistic. Just as their precautions and posture before the Oyster Bay attack were logical and realistic as well. You can't prepare for something that you just can't see or imagine... you can only prepare for the threats that you see (and even then, you usually won't have unlimited resources to prepare for).

As I understood it, Manticore was poised to strike directly at the Haven capital. And they would have, had not that asshole High Ridge accepted a cease fire from Saint-Just...allowing Bolthole to become a factor. Hell, the war was all but won!

It's another reason that the Manties should have expected the same strategy of Haven.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by hvb   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:05 pm

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I don't unfortunately have exact data on this.

Edit: found a page with a calculator:
(Edit2: now if only I could figure out the volume of a sphere, egat.)

Since either a Mk-16 or a Mk-23 (let along a Havenite MDM or system defense Quad-Drive Missile) idling along at a measly .5c packs about 252 gigaton (acct. the site), I would want to stay way back:

n.b.: I used iron at 8,000 kg/m^3 and volume for 94 metric ton => 2.82 meter diameter.

Striking the ground (not a water impact):

at 158 km (98 mi):

Air Blast:
The air blast will arrive approximately 8.4 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 38500 Pa = 0.385 bars = 5.47 psi
Max wind velocity: 78.7 m/s = 176 mph
Sound Intensity: 92 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description:
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will experience severe cracking and interior partitions will be blown down.
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

n.b.: closer in structure will collapse, further out, they will largely survive.


However, I would consider 'minimum safe distance' to be opposite side of planet, opposite hemisphere ... and standing on the boarding ramp with a pre-paid ticket off the hellhole already in hand. :mrgreen:

Especially if there is more than one leaker, and if they are coming in 'hot'. :shock:

dreamrider wrote:How far out would the blast wave and/or overpressure be lethal to Terran-type mammals?

dreamrider


Dafmeister wrote:
MaxxQ wrote:
Re: The bolded part - your calcs will work fine as a rough estimate for Mk-16 DDMs, but if you want to go with Mk-23 MDMs, you should up the diameter by about 45%. See the Attack Missile Family Portrait in my DeviantArt link in my sig. I *could* give you the exact diameter (to two decimal places), but it's more fun to see people's estimates and see how close they get. :twisted:


Thanks Maxx. I've updated the calculation to go with a diameter of 2.9 metres and changed the mass to 94 tons, which the Honorverse wiki gives for a Mk23 (seems low, given that the DD/CL-weight missiles Fearless was throwing in OBS were described as 70 tons when one of them landed on Sally McBride's leg, but maybe the Mk 23's fusion plant is a lot less dense than the older missile's capacitor rings). That brings the density down to 7.36 g/cm^3, given an impact yield at 0.5c of 'only' 251.786 gigatons.

For those like me who a ghoulish fascination with methods of destruction, the crater caused by such an impact landing at 30 degrees from horizontal to the planet surface would have a depth of 2,368 metres, with an apparent depth from the rim of the rampart around the crater of 2,960 metres (so it's raised a nearly 2,000-foot mountain range around the crater's circumference). The diameter of the crater itself would be 9,470 metres, with an apparent diameter including the rim of 11,838 metres. The ejecta spread would be over 20kms and the impact would displace more than 83 cubic kilometres of rock.
Last edited by hvb on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by BobfromSydney   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:26 pm

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Vince wrote:
kzt wrote:Space is big. Very very big. Let's say I have each pod 10,000 km away from each other pod. I can have a million pods in a million km^3 space. To deliver significant energy to something at 10,000 km away involves truely enormous warheads. And you can stop this with the kind of boring anti-radiation screens that are trivial in the honorverse and are possessed by every little runabout.

This assumes you don't simply put a few thousand LACs in front of the pods and kill the attack missiles with CMs and PDLCs, since if I'm wiling to build, deploy and maintain a million missile pods I probably did other obvious defensive things too, and it's really hard to launch a million attack missiles without taking some significant amount of time.

In real life, yes. But pods in the Honorverse are subject to soft kills.


Considering that the attacker is bringing both their platforms and missile reloads (supply train) across a journey of many light years even if it costs them just one missile to take out 4 or 8 of yours the rate of exchange is acceptable, since their 'quiver' is smaller than yours. At the end of the day the platforms and infrastructure matter more than the missiles. As long as you retain both platforms and infrastructure (or have an acceptable rate of exchange on platforms) if you can force the attackers to retreat you can count it as a victory.

For this reason I think the defending mobile forces should preferentially fire the pre-positioned pods rather than their internal ammo. As long as the attacking force has to keep expending ammo to 'honour' the threat of the pods, they are reducing the potential fire that can be directed against the defender's platforms. Although there are some interesting tricks that can be played using technology like the donkeys, I think that ultimately the attacker is not going to win a battle of 'ammo attrition' against a defender located in heart of it's manufacturing and logistics network.

Keep in mind that missiles in the Honorverse are not entirely fire-and-forget. If the fire control disappears they are much more vulnerable to EW, Countermeasures and Point Defense (CMs and Laser clusters).

Also if the 'attack' (anti-pod) missiles are sent in Ballistic then they themselves are ALSO vulnerable to soft kills, there is no reason why the defender couldn't attempt a 'triple ripple' to take out the majority of the attack missiles and then just destroy the rest with point defense.

The type of battle tactics you are suggesting seem to me to depend on just one question:
Defender missile flight time vs. attacker hyperdrive cycle time. This depends on how far from the pod 'stack' the attacker hypers in. Too close and they will get pasted. Too far and maybe your missiles are less effective.
The defender will probably scramble a couple of destroyer flotillas (or a few BatCruRons) into the alpha bands in order to keep track of the location of the attacker's fleet.
Since the defender has more missiles and far far more LACs, it will be hard for the attacker to keep any eyes in real space for long.


SWM wrote:The L2 point is unstable. Unlike the L4 and L5 points, if you are not very exactly on the L2 point you will inexorably drift away from it. An array of pods placed around the L2 point would scatter within months.


There are only 2 reasons to keep the pods near the planets in the first place. Otherwise doing so is entirely inexcusable.
Reason 1: The pods need a lot of mothering, maintenance and monthly check-ups: refuels and hand-holding. Keeping them near the planets makes servicing the pods more efficient.
Reason 2: You are using planetary (or orbital) fire control facilities to fire the pods.

If Reason 1 is true, then all those pods will be receiving regular visits anyway. No reason why they couldn't also get a helpful tractor assisted nudge when that happens.

Reason 2 doesn't seem relevant to this issue.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by Dafmeister   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:32 pm

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cthia wrote:As I understood it, Manticore was poised to strike directly at the Haven capital. And they would have, had not that asshole High Ridge accepted a cease fire from Saint-Just...allowing Bolthole to become a factor. Hell, the war was all but won!

It's another reason that the Manties should have expected the same strategy of Haven.


Not quite. The planned attack on the Haven system was the culmination of an offensive that began with the taking of Barnett and obliterated every significant Peep position along the way. White Haven was preparing for the attack on the Lovat System, which is less than 50 light years from the Haven System and would be the jumping-off point for the attack on Haven itself, when the cease-fire order came through.

Buttercup was a significant change from the old way of doing things, in the rather than pushing system-by-system White Haven only hit the major points with his main force, leaving other units of older ships to cover his flanks, but it wasn't like Beatrice. The equivalent of Beatrice would have been 8th Fleet opening Operation Buttercup by coming across the alpha wall right on Haven's hyper limit, having bypassed Barnett and everything in between.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 4:26 pm

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BobfromSydney wrote:There are only 2 reasons to keep the pods near the planets in the first place. Otherwise doing so is entirely inexcusable.
Reason 1: The pods need a lot of mothering, maintenance and monthly check-ups: refuels and hand-holding. Keeping them near the planets makes servicing the pods more efficient.
Reason 2: You are using planetary (or orbital) fire control facilities to fire the pods.

If Reason 1 is true, then all those pods will be receiving regular visits anyway. No reason why they couldn't also get a helpful tractor assisted nudge when that happens.

Reason 2 doesn't seem relevant to this issue.

Except that we know Reason 2 is correct.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 4:28 pm

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cthia wrote:As I understood it, Manticore was poised to strike directly at the Haven capital. And they would have, had not that asshole High Ridge accepted a cease fire from Saint-Just...allowing Bolthole to become a factor. Hell, the war was all but won!

It's another reason that the Manties should have expected the same strategy of Haven.

Not quite. Manticore was ready to strike directly at Haven . . . after they first finished one or two more systems between them and the Haven System. They intended to take care of Tequila and maybe some others before moving on Haven. And this was only after having marched through dozens of other systems first.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by George J. Smith   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:35 pm

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cthia wrote:snip
As I understood it, Manticore was poised to strike directly at the Haven capital. And they would have, had not that asshole High Ridge accepted a cease fire from Saint-Just...allowing Bolthole to become a factor. Hell, the war was all but won!
snip

What I don't understand is why 8th fleet didn't continue the offensive and take out Lovatt(sp) and then continue onto Haven, (or at least threaten Haven directly). I'm sure the message that Cromarty, Henke et al had been killed, arrived at Trevor's Star a long time before High Ridge and his cronies met with Elizabeth and then formally took over as the governing party. Not to mention the fact that it would have taken much much longer for the information to reach Saint-Just and then for his dispatch boat to get to Trevor's Star with the offer of a cease-fire. :?: :?:

(Of course then the story plot would have been well and truly truncated, and we would have had fewer books)

T&R
GJS
.
T&R
GJS

A man should live forever, or die in the attempt
Spider Robinson Callahan's Crosstime Saloon (1977) A voice is heard in Ramah
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by Duckk   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:40 pm

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8th Fleet was in the middle of a stand down for maintenance and resupply.
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Re: Battle of Manticore
Post by DarkEnigma   » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:41 pm

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George J. Smith wrote:(Of course then the story plot would have been well and truly truncated, and we would have had fewer books)

T&R
GJS


I think you just answered your own question.
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