cthia wrote:JeffEngel wrote:Given that the Alignment has been set on the destruction of the Solarian League since long before Haven or Manticore were problems, a plan that preserves the League is not part of the bigger scheme. The point isn't to play kingmaker here between the League and GA - the point is to destroy them - particularly the League.
I am consciously assuming the role of the lone opposer in this. High School and College has taught me that the role of the opposer can be quite lonely. But necessary to fuel a debate.
Having said that, I acknowledge that the longstanding plan of the MAlign has been to eradicate the League, and that, due to prolong, many of its members have imbibed the concept from mother's milk and paid it forward. Nevertheless, even the genius that is Detweiler isn't psychic. Their master plan could not have foreseen the rising forces that was to become the GA. Manticore was born of heart, strength of resolve, and a Soul of Steel. You can't predict that. It is compounded now with the forging of the Grand Alliance. Only a clairvoyant could have seen that coming, and Detweiler didn't. (Unless roseandheather is an activated sleeper on Detweiler's payroll.)
Yeah, I don't think she would have gotten behind the Detweiler/chainsaw ship in that case.

What I'm saying is this, IMO, the MAlignment's master plan has to undergo some sort of major revision, lest it die of static cling. It shouldn't hold to its initial target unerringly when a more immediate and dangerous fish has surged out of the shark infested waters, made an overwhelming cannonball of a splash and has ultimately displayed the propensity to hunt in packs (Manticore, Grayson, Haven) - aka the GA.
The League isn't even a danger to the MAlign's profiteering and sex trafficking empire. (As I'm aware.) I gather, they're one of their biggest clients. Regardless, I was far from suggesting that the MAlign had any intentions of preserving the League in their plans, or that they should. I was simply suggesting a more pointed use of an 800 lb gorilla in its death throes.
I think you're counting your gorilla corpses before they're dead there. The League's doomed, because and only because what it would take to save it it is not willing to do: what the outside will do to it is merely the occasion to give it unsurvivable acceptable choices. If it could make peace with Manticore, and/or be woken up to how it can be manipulated and get a responsible government - it would be reborn, stronger and more vibrant than ever. The Alignment coming out of the shadows to its senior leadership is one of the only things that could accomplish that.
It was in error that I meant that the MAlign should come out into the open. I was suggesting that they might reuse those same existing avenues of influence in a more formally planned (and all inclusive - the entire GA), joint military operation. I am assuming that they still have access to standing flunkies in the League (wolves as you refer to them) to move fleets around on a whim, which won't require poking their head out of camouflage any more than their Oyster Bay. (Although I do stand by my thoughts that they wouldn't give a rat's ass about being out in the open if their ultimate plan is achieved. Or when.)
It's going to be a long time before they can be open - pretty much never, really: the cultural memory for the vandals who sacked Rome is long; a conspiracy that brought down the Solarian League will be the devils much longer.
The "wolves" are Manticore, Haven, et al.; the "bison" is the League. It refers to a quote from an early Alignment planner for the use of the former to bring down the latter. It's still in progress - the only things wrong with the plan right now are that (1) the wolves are a lot scarier than they actually need to be for the plan, and (2) the wolves know the vultures (the Alignment) exist and are waiting to feed on the bodies of both.
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." They've managed to fool the League three times now: Byng, Crandall, Filareta. They had to use up Rajampet after the last. They've still got some penetration, but trying to do it a fourth time in a similar way is pushing their luck. If they want to make the case to the SLN leadership that this time is will be different, it either really has to be different (Kingsford's raiding strategy instead of another classic Solarian move like the last three) or they have to reveal too much of their capabilities to firm up Solarian resolve. There's already some Solarian suspicion: pretty firm suspicion among the junior spooks, and some slight ability to consider wild notions among the Mandarins.
If they can manipulate someone operating within the current SLN strategy to do something painful to the GA and step in to make it more painful, they may. That's consistent with the overall plan and goals. But that's not going to be another attack on a home system.
Tools, patsies. Ammunition, really. "Allies" strains the word all out of utility.continued
You're making the Alignment out as if it's got the GA in its sights and the League is just a tool, and therefore a possible ally. It's not. It's the primary target. It always has been. And until most of human civilization is no longer under its aegis, it will continue to be. The Alignment needs its wolves to keep taking down the bison. It needs to remain in the shadows so the League does not suspect it has - or that it even can have - a mortal enemy until it is dead. After that, any other bit players (like Manticore, or Haven, or (oops!) the two of them allied) can be scratched off the map as needed.
I must first point out that the League has already been used as unwitting allies.
Thanks for the vote of confidence in my strategic abilities, but I can't take credit for this one. The MAlign did have the GA in its sights, but only in its constituent form. They were manipulating Haven and Manticore into a mutual war of mass mutilation. The MAlign wants to profit from human trafficking. Neither constituent part of the pre-GA is having it. (We won't even entertain where Grayson would pipe in on the ethics of 'sex slaves.') So the 'holier-than-thous' have to be eliminated, and their plan nearly worked. It certainly has cost all sides - Havenite, Manticoran and Grayson - dearly, in terms of lost lives, loved ones (sorry Rose, me too), government, hardware and credits. But those blown ships, both sides, began to intermix and see the insanity of it all. It echoed back to respective heads of governments and an alliance formed.
Can't take the credit for the concept of using the League as a tool either. Wasn't mine. The MAlign moved Solarian fleets around the board like chess pieces and were hoping to kill two birds with one stone.
What keeps coming to my mind is what happened with the old Havenite regime and their plan to topple Manticore by weakening it with the assassination of King Roger. But what they got in return, because of the same psychic limitation mentioned above, was a young Elizabeth Winton, who turned out to be a Soul of Steel with a warrior treecat on one shoulder, a chip on the other and a grudge on her back. It seems to me that genetically engineered Mensa geniuses of Detweiler fame has to be mindful of making the same mistake. Eliminate the League, yet inherit a more dangerous entity in return. One who are aware of you. Detest all you stand for. Have you in their sights, and are hunting you like hell hounds from the Baskervilles with warrior treecats in tow.
The League is the long term primary target. Agreed. But it's a fire which the MAlign cannot become so unerringly consumed while another more raging fire ignites, burns hotter, and itself consumes them in return for their efforts. They'd be in a worse predicament.
I wouldn't propose that the Alignment should or will ignore the GA. The "alliance" part of that particularly is just awful. But while the Plan has to be adjusted and moreso now nearer its conclusion and with unplanned major things afoot, preserving the League is not acceptable.
Working out how to nail the GA members after the League is gone, in a way that does not give up the Alignment's existence, that's something to work on. So is breaking up that alliance, and anything they can do to compromise the conviction that Zilwicki, Cachat, and Simoes brought back non-fiction from Mesa.
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What the Alignment can do is stay hidden, help Manticore along with the League's destruction, and work to insure that neither it nor Haven are nuclei for a stable order that the Alignment does not control well enough to bring about Detweiler's vision. The biggest priority there, rationally, is staying hidden. Stay hidden, let Manticore fall on its face with these silly stories about a centuries-long conspiracy, let Manticore topple the League, but compromise their ability to be a reconstructive force. This awful alliance with Haven really has to go, for instance - maybe after a little more kicking the League to bits though.
I agree with the essence of this. Let the confrontation between the League and the GA run its course. BUT, then move fleets around the board to punch out the GA as well. The Alignment cannot afford to leave any witnesses or loose ends. Especially loose ends with the means of the GA - who has you in their sights.
Yep, they do need to have things around to kick the GA - later. And they need to have cover for it, so that the League successor states don't take the old "Mesan Conspiracy" stories as validated by that. SLN fleets are not going to be good for that though: there won't be a SLN then, and those fleets would not be able to hack it.
I don't think the GA would have a good and workable time of continuing to attack if a humbled SL leadership came to them, said publicly the GA had been right all along about the Mesan Conspiracy, blamed it and SLN corruption and arrogance for the attacks on them, and worked for genuine constitutional reform of the League. For one, it's hard to keep attacking someone after they've surrendered and be the good guy. For another, you'd have won. The St. Just Coup parallel would only work if you forget that the League would have someone else to blame in this scenario - Mesan conspirators, and regrettably themselves - and more importantly, that there would have been no "pulling a Theisman" in the former case except for Manticore refusing any reasonable peace agreement to end the stupid war. The Grantville Government, by contrast, has a certain experience now for ending war well.
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But if they don't stay hidden, the jig is up. Detweiler's vision would remain the least popular political movement ever, and they wouldn't be in the shadows to make it happen slowly in the long term. They won't have the force to handle the GA - or the League, or the Andermani, maybe not even Erewhon - openly, now or in the foreseeable future. IF they're revealed, the League goes from staggered patsy to awakened giant and could patch things up well enough with Manticore. (And Manticore could actually buy that as a basis for peace - everything would be blamed by all parties on the Alignment, so the Solarian thirst for revenge, its wealth, its R&D establishment, would not be aimed at the SEM but instead at the Alignment.)
I'd sure like to believe in this. After all, I'm a Solarian, living happily here around ole Sol. (I even spent a summer in Chicago.) I'd like to see the League reformed and remain alive and a viable entity. BUT, I fear that that would be a barbed risk taken by the GA, whose ass could get caught on that barb at some point in the future when that 800 lb gorilla is now on steroids. I see a possible parallel, in alloted time to arm - from a truce, afforded the League as did the St. Just truce - afforded the Peeps and a chance to 'get back on balance.' Whether the League consciously plans it or not they are going to find themselves in the same scenario as Haven, trying to feed so many mouths and provide them with an acceptable standard of living, if, their previous brand of milking member states cease. And it will, now that these member states have seen glimmers of hope, in the light, exposed by Manticore. As a result, just like Haven, SL sights will set upon the lucrative wormhole junctions of the GA and it will be right back to their expansionistic business.
The MAlign doesn't have to come out into the open to pull this off. Merely set those wolves you mention loose again, and this time coordinate an attack (with or without League knowledge) to eliminate the GA as well, after the GA has served its usefulness.
We can argue all we want whether or not the League and MAlign would ally themselves. And you all are probably right that they won't. But my entire original post centered around fears that if they were to, the GA would be punched out.
So the Alignment cannot count on the GA refusing peace with a newly sensible League, if the Alignment helps the League get reasonable. (It's already got a reasonable movement forming - it's only that it's too little, too late as things are going.)
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They've built the Lenny D's for a reason, yes. There's no guarantee it's still valid, of course. Originally, they were meant for Oyster Bay, to eliminate the warmaking ability of Haven and Manticore - taking down the wolves after they're done with the bison. But they moved up Oyster Bay while the bison lived; they only hit one of the two parties; they didn't eliminate that warmaking ability.... As much as it hurt Manticore, it bit the Alignment on the butt badly, especially when it gave Manticore the impetus and Haven the opening for a peace agreement, and an alliance once the Alignment was revealed to them.
I really appreciate your thoughts here (even more than the others). I overlooked that the Lennys were originally being built for Oyster Bay. Thanks for pointing that out. But they still could be used on a follow up, more inclusive, let's call it Clam Bake, to do what was originally intended. Which is my entire point. The objective to eliminate the war making threat, that is the GA, still exists. You said it yourself. I think they should strike now and not allow the GA to change their diapers.
They're not done with the wolves yet, and they can't risk substantiating the Simoes et al story. They need to get the wolves' work done before turning on them, and they need to allow time or some reasonable counter-account to mask their involvement in Clam Bake.
Meh. I can't see them getting a Solly fleet out here for "Filareta's Folly 2: We Just Don't Learn", not without giving up the whole plan. They may be able to do things within the current SLN strategy to coordinate with unknowing (and disposable) SLN forces, if it is worth it. But none of that will be Clam Bake or Third Manticore.This was and is my entire point! Punch out Haven and Manticore for real. But because they've lost their initial element of surprise, it might not work this time; unless they could serve up that seafood platter with a twist, of sour lemon, in the form of a follow up Solly fleet used as a misdirection devised to draw GA sensors and preoccupy them.
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What they are supposed to use them for now? It's a good question. There may not be a good answer. One guess - back to the original plan, use them to punch out Haven and Manticore for real this time, if they could get away with it. They can't right now.
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If they can manufacture some sort of story Sollies (or ex-Sollies) would believe for some other party capable of that, then they could blame that party. Maybe manufacture some rogue interstellar with more capability than anyone had guessed and a grudge for Manticore - ooo, maybe Manpower did it! With that fairy tale, their mouthpieces could concede that the GA was partly right all along, but it was just that Manpower itself and its associated companies were a lot crazier and a lot more powerful than anyone had guessed. That last gasp attack on Haven and Manticore - complete with Eridani violations - was clearly the result of some disturbed slavers. It's another pity it happened after the League was thoroughly discredited. Someone should hunt those monsters down and kill them. Our new star nation - we call it the Renaissance Factor - will assume that grave duty. No need to thank us....
In conjunction with the aforementioned.
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The Solarian League, with all its faults, are at least consistent and true to form - institutional arrogance as a symptom of a swollen head from centuries of not only being the biggest bully on the block, but the only bully on the block. Problem with this longstanding, deeply rooted arrogance, is that it has permeated their entire mindset and settled into their bones. It's the kind of institutional arrogance that has to die out. (Like racism.) Which is why, that even though I don't think the Mandarins are stupid per se, institutional arrogance is its own form of stupidity. Which is why I think that the League would jump at the chance to temporarily ally with the MAlignment. That deeply rooted institutional arrogance would most likely see, a much smaller than even the GA bunch of neobarbs, as even a much smaller threat.
"Hey. You know that silly Manticoran fairy tale that parties unknown used you to lose a quarter of Battle Fleet? We're them. We have this new proposal for you...."
No institutional arrogance or bloodthirst makes a person stupid enough to swallow that hook. So you'd have to lie about what you are, well enough that they're not suspicious after all of this so far and also willing to believe that you can make that difference. And you have to be willing to believe that this will both finish off the GA and still have the League fall apart.
I can't buy that combination.