Honorverse ramblings and musings

lyonheart wrote:the GA is the only refuge in the storm, ...

I agree with most of your analysis, but this assertion is just wrong.

Alternatives to the GA exist, and at least one, the Renaissance Factor, is going to actively be seeking "protectorates" and new members.

I'm sure that former league systems and neutrals at risk are going to seek protection from the nearest non-league source. For most of them, there's going to be someone nearer than the GA.

The GA's biggest advantage is Mycroft/Moriarty and "Super-LACs" that can be provided in a "turnkey" defense package from Haven or Beowulf in just a couple of large freighters and a CLAC or two. Mycroft or Moriarty without the LAC element would only require a dozen techs or so to man the command section and an viable system defense can be installed within weeks after the freighters arrive.

It won't take long for something similar to be offered by other manufacturers or built locally by industrially capable systems.

Hi Weird Harold,

You may be right, but there's the time factor.

The GA is here now and the Renaissance Factor has yet to announce itself, a process that will take monthes to percolate through the SL, while the GA is already known and quite capable of making its presence known locally far more quickly, NTM the capture of Mesa may have surprised and delayed its formation ever further, or the clone sons' anger at the loss of their parents may cause them to be too precipitous in their decisions and ultimately ruin the Mesan Alignment, because the GA is already looking for the MAlign's false front guys [from the MoH's conversation between Queen Elizabeth III and Eloise Pritchart] so they may not have the time or position they expected.

I don't think the MAlign planned on the RF leaders being questioned by treecats, their refusal being an obvious red flag.

While the MAlign still has its streak drive db/yachts, thanks to Simoes and the capture of 'Firebrand', the GA should be able to recognize the external telltales so MAlign db's would be wise to avoid all GA controlled wormholes and star systems, which turns message delivery runs from days to weeks if not monthes, and double that for direct return responses etc.

Then there's the potential that during all those weeks and monthes in hyper the intended star system has changed hands.

The db/yacht may self destruct, but that reduces the number of messengers rather faster than I think the MAlign planned on.

The odds of capturing a streak drive db/yacht in UC are long but it could happen, though I'm not holding my breath.

From the snippets it appears the clones are going to make some mistakes which are going to exceed even their father's whoppers.

UC should be "fascinating".

L

Weird Harold wrote:

lyonheart wrote:the GA is the only refuge in the storm, ...

I agree with most of your analysis, but this assertion is just wrong.

Alternatives to the GA exist, and at least one, the Renaissance Factor, is going to actively be seeking "protectorates" and new members.

I'm sure that former league systems and neutrals at risk are going to seek protection from the nearest non-league source. For most of them, there's going to be someone nearer than the GA.

The GA's biggest advantage is Mycroft/Moriarty and "Super-LACs" that can be provided in a "turnkey" defense package from Haven or Beowulf in just a couple of large freighters and a CLAC or two. Mycroft or Moriarty without the LAC element would only require a dozen techs or so to man the command section and an viable system defense can be installed within weeks after the freighters arrive.

It won't take long for something similar to be offered by other manufacturers or built locally by industrially capable systems.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Weird Harold,

You may be right, but there's the time factor.

The GA is here now and the Renaissance Factor has yet to announce itself, a process that will take monthes to percolate through the SL, while the GA is already known and quite capable of making its presence known locally far more quickly, NTM the capture of Mesa may have surprised and delayed its formation ever further, or the clone sons' anger at the loss of their parents may cause them to be too precipitous in their decisions and ultimately ruin the Mesan Alignment, because the GA is already looking for the MAlign's false front guys [from the MoH's conversation between Queen Elizabeth III and Eloise Pritchart] so they may not have the time or position they expected.

I don't think the MAlign planned on the RF leaders being questioned by treecats, their refusal being an obvious red flag.

While the MAlign still has its streak drive db/yachts, thanks to Simoes and the capture of 'Firebrand', the GA should be able to recognize the external telltales so MAlign db's would be wise to avoid all GA controlled wormholes and star systems, which turns message delivery runs from days to weeks if not monthes, and double that for direct return responses etc.

Then there's the potential that during all those weeks and monthes in hyper the intended star system has changed hands.

The db/yacht may self destruct, but that reduces the number of messengers rather faster than I think the MAlign planned on.

The odds of capturing a streak drive db/yacht in UC are long but it could happen, though I'm not holding my breath.

From the snippets it appears the clones are going to make some mistakes which are going to exceed even their father's whoppers.

UC should be "fascinating".

L

Weird Harold wrote:[.

I agree with most of your analysis, but this assertion is just wrong.

Alternatives to the GA exist, and at least one, the Renaissance Factor, is going to actively be seeking "protectorates" and new members.

I'm sure that former league systems and neutrals at risk are going to seek protection from the nearest non-league source. For most of them, there's going to be someone nearer than the GA.

The GA's biggest advantage is Mycroft/Moriarty and "Super-LACs" that can be provided in a "turnkey" defense package from Haven or Beowulf in just a couple of large freighters and a CLAC or two. Mycroft or Moriarty without the LAC element would only require a dozen techs or so to man the command section and an viable system defense can be installed within weeks after the freighters arrive.

It won't take long for something similar to be offered by other manufacturers or built locally by industrially capable systems.

[/quote]

The smart move for the Renaissance group would be to be quiet for a bit. There are a lot of things that can done locally by all the members but it would be simpler to let all the fuss go by them. They might even for a bit stay in the League even if they really have no allegiance to it.

With so many planets going every which way...some leaving, some negotiating new deals, some stalwart with the League, a handful of planets who no one else knows has connections to each other can stay hidden.

After a time it is likely that some sort of peace will be made and the Grand Alliance will stop...presumably some kind of armistice between the GA and the mandarins. At that point the baddies can gradually work their way into expansion. The Dets were willing to wait 500 years to get to this point...why not move more slowly and stand a real chance of winning.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Weird Harold,

You may be right, but there's the time factor.

The GA is here now and the Renaissance Factor has yet to announce itself, a process that will take monthes to percolate through the SL, while the GA is already known and quite capable of making its presence known locally far more quickly, ...

The GA is only "local" near Wormhole Termini they control; which only covers 2/3 of the League perimeter. They aren't "local" to most of the interior of the League or 1/3 of its perimeter. The RF is "local" to 12 points within the League, and will have access to the WH network as soon as they secede and declare neutrality in the dispute with Manticore and the GA.

The Renaissance Factor doesn't have to "Announce Itself" to start expanding. In the initial formation meeting, it was discussed as the targets for the first expansion -- to 24 systems. I understood that first expansion to be 12 separate bilateral expansions before the "formation" of a "mutual defense organization" named the Renaissance Factor.

The RF is planned to appear to coagulate naturally and be the kind of grouping that espouses the same values as the GA. There isn't supposed to be any reason for the GA to interrogate the leadership or even to separate out the 12 (actual) Original Founders from the first 24 members. There may even be 36 or 48 "first members" by the time they get around to "announcing themselves."

So, you've got the RF -- or Proto-RF, if you prefer, to distinguish the pre-announcement version -- doubling with each carefully calculated expansion from 12 "local" areas.

You've got the Judean League which joined en masse and will presumably secede the same way. They may or may not offer mutual protection to neighboring systems and expand.

You've got a couple of other known multi-system groups around the perimeter of the League, and IIRC natural defense groupings/organizations on the "far side" of the League from Beowulf/Manticore. Logically, those will be closer, more "local" options for mutual defense organizations.

The Andermani and Erewhonese both have active military tech bases. Either or both can provide advanced system defense missiles on fairly short notice -- along with ships and other tech with longer lead times.

The effectiveness of non-GA options will vary, of course, but they will be an easier sell than GA-tech because an understandable small innovation will be easier to believe than the "magic missiles" the GA claims to be able to provide. As for LACs, "Super LACs" aren't going to be any more believable than "magic missiles" without a demonstration.

The GA can't upgrade even a significant percentage of League systems and/or protectorates. That tech vacuum will have to be filled by "local" providers or "arms merchants" like Technodyne and others. The RF is just one option for a limited volume of space. The RF does have the advantage of advanced planning, unlike every other option, including the GA.

ldwechsler wrote:[...]

After a time it is likely that some sort of peace will be made and the Grand Alliance will stop...presumably some kind of armistice between the GA and the mandarins. At that point the baddies can gradually work their way into expansion. The Dets were willing to wait 500 years to get to this point...why not move more slowly and stand a real chance of winning.

Doesn't work. The one thing that has changed is - they have some very motivated bloodhounds on their track. Bloodhounds like Manticore, Grayson, Haven, the Andermanis ... in other words, anyone who thinks he has a bone or three to pick with them. They are in the open (or at best under the remnants of a cloak, which got very thin all of a sudden), so, the best way would be to go the whole mile and make the existene of the Renaissance Factor a known fact.

By the way, Haven was very fast very good to predict, which systems would be probable targets for Manticore during the cutworm-raids - there's no reason to assume, they couldn't do something similar concerning the worlds they want to put under a political microscope regarding Malignment-influence.

Eagleeye wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:[...]

After a time it is likely that some sort of peace will be made and the Grand Alliance will stop...presumably some kind of armistice between the GA and the mandarins. At that point the baddies can gradually work their way into expansion. The Dets were willing to wait 500 years to get to this point...why not move more slowly and stand a real chance of winning.

Doesn't work. The one thing that has changed is - they have some very motivated bloodhounds on their track. Bloodhounds like Manticore, Grayson, Haven, the Andermanis ... in other words, anyone who thinks he has a bone or three to pick with them. They are in the open (or at best under the remnants of a cloak, which got very thin all of a sudden), so, the best way would be to go the whole mile and make the existene of the Renaissance Factor a known fact.

By the way, Haven was very fast very good to predict, which systems would be probable targets for Manticore during the cutworm-raids - there's no reason to assume, they couldn't do something similar concerning the worlds they want to put under a political microscope regarding Malignment-influence.

You really do have an Eagleeye! LOL

Sounds like a job for the Boogeyman.

Haven can really make a killing off that algorithm (pun intended). If it wasn't classified! If I were the Manties, I would have asked for that to be put on the table during the forming of the GA. Share all tech. LOL


Btw, Eagleeye. Thanks-a-million for the show of appreciation in your post regarding the transcription of the video snippet. That was very kind of you. It weighed very heavily in my decision to go ahead and punish my nose on the grindstone.

The issue with looking for Malign political influence is that the GA doesn't know what to look for. The real target they need to find is Darius, home of the bio-singularity. If they try to come up with some fancy algorithm to look for shared ideologies with Mesa they'll just get false hits. Hell, Mesa has a bunch of friendly League nations nearby and exactly none of them are part of the RF!

Serious question: what criteria would you use for finding a RF world? What would be the give away? Especially if they don't fix the Henke/Mesa situation and Manticore's reputation gets stained with the blood of millions of innocents.

I can't think of what they would use that wouldn't either produce a metric crapton of false hits, or point them in the exact wrong direction! And we actually know about the RF, their plans, and their structure.

quite possibly a cat wrote:The issue with looking for Malign political influence is that the GA doesn't know what to look for. The real target they need to find is Darius, home of the bio-singularity. If they try to come up with some fancy algorithm to look for shared ideologies with Mesa they'll just get false hits. Hell, Mesa has a bunch of friendly League nations nearby and exactly none of them are part of the RF!

Serious question: what criteria would you use for finding a RF world? What would be the give away? Especially if they don't fix the Henke/Mesa situation and Manticore's reputation gets stained with the blood of millions of innocents.

I can't think of what they would use that wouldn't either produce a metric crapton of false hits, or point them in the exact wrong direction! And we actually know about the RF, their plans, and their structure.

quite possibly a cat wrote:The issue with looking for Malign political influence is that the GA doesn't know what to look for. The real target they need to find is Darius, home of the bio-singularity. If they try to come up with some fancy algorithm to look for shared ideologies with Mesa they'll just get false hits. Hell, Mesa has a bunch of friendly League nations nearby and exactly none of them are part of the RF!

Serious question: what criteria would you use for finding a RF world? What would be the give away? Especially if they don't fix the Henke/Mesa situation and Manticore's reputation gets stained with the blood of millions of innocents.

I can't think of what they would use that wouldn't either produce a metric crapton of false hits, or point them in the exact wrong direction! And we actually know about the RF, their plans, and their structure.

Remember, we are not ONIan, nor do we adequately speak their language.

Paraphrasing the sentiment of Givens, just because you and I can't see the light at the end of the tunnel, doesn't mean she can't. They already have many many data points. Oftentimes you already have the answer, but haven't collated it yet. That's what computers are for. To make sense of the mounds of raw data. Referenced and cross referenced again and again, led by the hand of Givens. Heck, even Harahap was musing about cross referencing data with the professionals and he's a single entity. And as Harahp said, these are professionals. A huge telescope is useless if its pointed in the wrong direction. Yet, don't you hear the sprockets clicking under ONIs scope?

An algorithm of its kind is only as good as the data it is fed. Garbage in, garbage out. Harahap is giving the suspicious minds of ONI some tasty morsels for the AI to chew on.

Givens: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Givens is gonna find that needle in a haystack, by burning down the haystack.

I doubt that the RF's intentions and it's ties with the Alignment will be evident when they publicaly declare their star nation. That will take time to come out; in all likelihood a quite a bit of it...

Don

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I don't think the Renaissance Factor will show itself for a couple of years or so. At the very best, they are going to work with their current local trading partners and set up- if they haven't already- mutual defence treaties but announcing anything such as newly formed two or three system entities would draw the wrath of the SL since these would be obvious potential sources of trouble for the League.
Some of the RF are league members. For them to formalize multi-system unities would be very dangerous given what is about to happen with Beowulf.

I don't recall that the Judean League was a part of the SL, it sounded like it was a collection of systems either in the Verge or beyond it on the other side of the SL from Manticore and the Haven Quadrant.

Those systems which are present RF such of Mannerheim which have a signifcant SDF also need to be reasonably quiet lest they attract too much attention.

Sending SLN commerce raiders to Silesia via hyperspace is primarily going to end up just killing the raiders. Even presuming they understand exactly what the IAE and Manticore did there with the take over and division of systems, they are flying into a school of barracuda because they appear to have no true comprehension of what is there. This may be a large collection of net-barb systems but the IAE has at least the Manti Lite equipment that Erhwon has (somehow SLN has missed or forgotten about Erwhon) and are cleary far superior to the SLN on any 1-1 comparison, probably 1-2 or better between the missle range and certainly with actual combat experience.
Consider that both the IAE and SEM have a relativly heavy naval presence in their respective portions of Silesia as they have been in the process of sorting out all of the corruption, pirates, and "convincing" the systems and their inhabitants that the change of ownership and laws is both real and final. So both pieces will be thicker than usual/expected with patroling warships and reaction forces posted in strategic locations and/or places having difficulty going with the new program.
The IAE is not going be someplace the SLN is going to do well in since they will effectivly be operating as pirates. Dealing with pirates is VERY clear-cut for the IAE just as it has been for Manticore. The Manticore portion of Silesia is probably going to be worse since there is a declared war with the SL and these people will find themselves being engaged on-sight by either IAE or SEM ships.
Then there is the whole logistical challange of SLN ships showing up to raid so far from any SLN base or friendly (or just compliant) system where they can resupply, rearm or get repairs. They might be able to use (after buying or forceing them from the owners) missiles from some of the Silly's systems as they were probably variations of older Solly designs but spair parts are going to be -at best- modifying civilian stuff to fit. It was clear that the SEM area commander had taken up or otherwise removed whatever warships were available in the SEM area of Silesia into SEM service or decommissioned them. And, given the history of the area, that would mean making very sure they or their ciritical/ military parts would be getting sold on the black market.
So, some Solly cruiser shows up and only an older SEM destroyer is in a systems....which will proceed to work at hammering said cruiser from twice the crusier's engagement range with better weapons untill the cruiser either runs away or is compelled to surrender. The damage won't be one sided but the Solly is going to end up in a bad way with any level of combat damage since the only places within at least a couple of hundred lightyears that can repair starships will already occupied by either IAE or SEM warships. Oops. Hope they brought a good contingent of fleet support and repair ships because if they have deminished hyperspace capasity it will be a much longer trip home if they are limping.