The Two General's Problem

penny wrote:

tlb wrote:A few posts ago you (incorrectly) claimed that people did not really know that the Malign existed,

A few quotes ago per that discussion, they did not. Context. They only suspected. Even now they only suspect. Well, maybe they no longer suspect since Galton. But out of all of the governments only the pesky Manticorans “suspected.” What fraction of the galaxy is the MBS?

Mission of Honor wrote:“Your Majesty—Elizabeth—the Mesan Alignment wants both of us destroyed, starting with the Star Empire. I don’t know if it honestly believes the SLN can do the job where you’re concerned, or if it was anticipating we’d do it when we recognized the opportunity it had given us. But it doesn’t really matter. What matters is that this Solarian attack on you is simply one more step in a strategy directed against both of us. So I think something a bit more pointed than simply stopping shooting at each other might be in order.”

A Rising Thunder wrote:I think what they’re really after at this point is leaving you some freedom of maneuver. For that matter, they could even see some situations in which having you available as a third party—a go-between—might make a lot of sense.”
“And it would also leave us free to go after the Mesan Alignment, wouldn’t it?” Rabenstrange observed shrewdly.

A Rising Thunder wrote:Benjamin said harshly. “I don’t know how much information McBryde actually handed Zilwicki and Cachat, or how much substantiation they’ve got for it, but they got one hell of a lot more than we’d want them to have! They’re talking about virus-based nanotech assassinations, the streak drive, and the spider drive, and they’re naming names about something called ‘the Mesan Alignment.’ In fact, they’re busy telling the Manty Parliament—and, I’m sure, the Havenite Congress and all the rest of the fucking galaxy!—all about the Mesan plan to conquer the known universe.

A Rising Thunder wrote:“Let me guess, Captain al-Fanudahi. You’re about to suggest to me that the Manties’ allegations of ‘malign outside influence’ in the form of this Mesan Alignment of theirs was responsible for it?”
“To some extent, yes,” he said, and paused again, watching her expression closely.

penny wrote:

tlb wrote:A few posts ago you (incorrectly) claimed that people did not really know that the Malign existed,

A few quotes ago per that discussion, they did not. Context. They only suspected. Even now they only suspect. Well, maybe they no longer suspect since Galton. But out of all of the governments only the pesky Manticorans “suspected.” What fraction of the galaxy is the MBS?

Jonathan_S wrote:Certainly most random people weren't paying attention. But the key players knew they existed and Manticore was publically calling them out.

Pritchard tells Queen Elizabeth

Mission of Honor wrote:“Your Majesty—Elizabeth—the Mesan Alignment wants both of us destroyed, starting with the Star Empire. I don’t know if it honestly believes the SLN can do the job where you’re concerned, or if it was anticipating we’d do it when we recognized the opportunity it had given us. But it doesn’t really matter. What matters is that this Solarian attack on you is simply one more step in a strategy directed against both of us. So I think something a bit more pointed than simply stopping shooting at each other might be in order.”

The IAN wasn't publicly part of the Grand Alliance specifically to leave them free to go after the Alignment

A Rising Thunder wrote:I think what they’re really after at this point is leaving you some freedom of maneuver. For that matter, they could even see some situations in which having you available as a third party—a go-between—might make a lot of sense.”
“And it would also leave us free to go after the Mesan Alignment, wouldn’t it?” Rabenstrange observed shrewdly.

And Benjamin Detwiler is complaining that the Manties have gone public about them

A Rising Thunder wrote:Benjamin said harshly. “I don’t know how much information McBryde actually handed Zilwicki and Cachat, or how much substantiation they’ve got for it, but they got one hell of a lot more than we’d want them to have! They’re talking about virus-based nanotech assassinations, the streak drive, and the spider drive, and they’re naming names about something called ‘the Mesan Alignment.’ In fact, they’re busy telling the Manty Parliament—and, I’m sure, the Havenite Congress and all the rest of the fucking galaxy!—all about the Mesan plan to conquer the known universe.

And of course al-Fanudahi and his 'Ghost Hunters' have heard about them and think they're likely the bad guys they've been trying to root out

A Rising Thunder wrote:“Let me guess, Captain al-Fanudahi. You’re about to suggest to me that the Manties’ allegations of ‘malign outside influence’ in the form of this Mesan Alignment of theirs was responsible for it?”
“To some extent, yes,” he said, and paused again, watching her expression closely.

So Haven, Manticore, Grayson, Andermani, and the League have all heard of the MAlign and most of them believe they exist and even the effective counter-intel parts of the League seem to think their existence more probable that not. That's quite a lot of the power players who know (or reasonably suspect) they exist.

Now, not everyone in power believes they exist. But Manticore has been sufficiently public in their claims that effectively anybody paying the slightest attention to interstellar relations has at least heard claims of their existence -- and all this well before Michelle shows up at Mesa (much less the later fight at Galton)

tlb wrote:

tlb wrote:He had a yacht, why not leave? He was not needed to press the final button, nor micro-manage the evacuation.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I think the moment the fleet made the hyper translation, it was too late to try and run for it, with the yacht in orbit or close by. It would take too long to get up to it and accelerating away from the planet and the fleet. Henke must have sent destroyers to the other sides of the hyperlimit to try and catch some ships - she had done so at Meyer. Especially ships that were trying to run.

No, if he was going to still get away, he'd have to wait for the dust to settle (after pushing the button on the Final Flourish) and then leave. Irate like any businessman who's been delayed, but not drawing particular attention.

Unless he had a different extraction mechanism. For example, get up to the yacht, accelerate some, then drop the wedges, change course on reaction thrusters, and coast out. Or get out in a pinnace on thrusters while the yacht was accelerating away, but have the yacht comply with the orders to heave to. By the time a destroyer RDVed with the yacht, he'd be long gone and meeting with the extraction ship. Even if the crew is interrogated and confesses that someone left in a pinnace, that is not going to be unusual in the Mesa system: all the Manpower executives who were in orbit must have tried that.

Actually I was thinking that he should not have waited until the fleet arrived, he could have gone when his "sons" left. As I said, he was just a spectator at that point and not needed for the final button push.

Perhaps he was thinking that his time was done and the next generation needed to take over. So he intended to have his burial ceremony like some grandiose modern Viking, surrounded by flames and the unhappy servants slaughtered to serve him in the next world.

But you are right that there were ways to leave later on. There would still be passengers coming and going once things settled.

Jonathan_S wrote:Certainly most random people weren't paying attention. But the key players knew they existed and Manticore was publically calling them out.

Pritchard tells Queen Elizabeth

Mission of Honor wrote:“Your Majesty—Elizabeth—the Mesan Alignment wants both of us destroyed, starting with the Star Empire. I don’t know if it honestly believes the SLN can do the job where you’re concerned, or if it was anticipating we’d do it when we recognized the opportunity it had given us. But it doesn’t really matter. What matters is that this Solarian attack on you is simply one more step in a strategy directed against both of us. So I think something a bit more pointed than simply stopping shooting at each other might be in order.”

The IAN wasn't publicly part of the Grand Alliance specifically to leave them free to go after the Alignment

A Rising Thunder wrote:I think what they’re really after at this point is leaving you some freedom of maneuver. For that matter, they could even see some situations in which having you available as a third party—a go-between—might make a lot of sense.”
“And it would also leave us free to go after the Mesan Alignment, wouldn’t it?” Rabenstrange observed shrewdly.

And Benjamin Detwiler is complaining that the Manties have gone public about them

A Rising Thunder wrote:Benjamin said harshly. “I don’t know how much information McBryde actually handed Zilwicki and Cachat, or how much substantiation they’ve got for it, but they got one hell of a lot more than we’d want them to have! They’re talking about virus-based nanotech assassinations, the streak drive, and the spider drive, and they’re naming names about something called ‘the Mesan Alignment.’ In fact, they’re busy telling the Manty Parliament—and, I’m sure, the Havenite Congress and all the rest of the fucking galaxy!—all about the Mesan plan to conquer the known universe.

And of course al-Fanudahi and his 'Ghost Hunters' have heard about them and think they're likely the bad guys they've been trying to root out

A Rising Thunder wrote:“Let me guess, Captain al-Fanudahi. You’re about to suggest to me that the Manties’ allegations of ‘malign outside influence’ in the form of this Mesan Alignment of theirs was responsible for it?”
“To some extent, yes,” he said, and paused again, watching her expression closely.

So Haven, Manticore, Grayson, Andermani, and the League have all heard of the MAlign and most of them believe they exist and even the effective counter-intel parts of the League seem to think their existence more probable that not. That's quite a lot of the power players who know (or reasonably suspect) they exist.

Now, not everyone in power believes they exist. But Manticore has been sufficiently public in their claims that effectively anybody paying the slightest attention to interstellar relations has at least heard claims of their existence -- and all this well before Michelle shows up at Mesa (much less the later fight at Galton)

penny wrote:But whatever the reason he procrastinated, it is a moot point. And at that point, perhaps he was needed to push the final button. Who else could the head of the Onion trust to commit suicide for the cause? Or trust to remain in position to do so? Or should trust.

Did textev ever say if the button was going to be pushed anyway, even if Detweiler had left with his sons? If so, perhaps Albrecht thought he could not trust a potato to do the job of an Onion.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:But whatever the reason he procrastinated, it is a moot point. And at that point, perhaps he was needed to push the final button. Who else could the head of the Onion trust to commit suicide for the cause? Or trust to remain in position to do so? Or should trust.

Did textev ever say if the button was going to be pushed anyway, even if Detweiler had left with his sons? If so, perhaps Albrecht thought he could not trust a potato to do the job of an Onion.

Was Aldona Anisimovna needed to press the button at New Tuscany? Was any valuable member of the Malign needed to press the button at Beowulf? Was anyone even aware that they would push the button to blow up Admiral Filareta's command deck and fire all the pods at Manticore?

penny wrote:But whatever the reason he procrastinated, it is a moot point. And at that point, perhaps he was needed to push the final button. Who else could the head of the Onion trust to commit suicide for the cause? Or trust to remain in position to do so? Or should trust.

Did textev ever say if the button was going to be pushed anyway, even if Detweiler had left with his sons? If so, perhaps Albrecht thought he could not trust a potato to do the job of an Onion.

tlb wrote:Was Aldona Anisimovna needed to press the button at New Tuscany? Was any valuable member of the Malign needed to press the button at Beowulf? Was anyone even aware that they would push the button to blow up Admiral Filareta's command deck and fire all the pods at Manticore?

penny wrote:Oh, you are being facetious about the compulsion. But that is not the same thing. Compulsion will not work if the infected tool is not in place to do so. Someone has to be “in position” to carry out the programming. For instance, an infected tool had to be on Filareta’s command deck when the time came to push the button. Had he gotten diarrhea and gone to the bathroom, it would have failed. The same for every other case except Beowulf. But even the tool at Beowulf was almost out of position.

In Detweiler’s case he could not count on someone under compulsion always being there. They had a life, and people were not aware that they were under compulsion.

I seriously doubt remote detonation was acceptable with he himself inside most of the time. And the facility was probably too far underground for a signal to reach. Besides, would you like having someone with their finger on the button of explosions all the time if you were in the lab?

penny wrote:Context guys. Until MoH a lot of people still did not believe. They only suspected, as far as the Onion knew. But my post was meant for the 90+ % of the galaxy who did not suspect or believe. Like the entire Solarian League. My statement is saying that Detweiler did not, could not, afford to change the opinions of the other 90+ % of the galaxy from only suspecting to removing all shadow of a doubt. He was trying to deny them a "smoking gun" by only leaving them a smoking hole in the ground.

tlb wrote:Remember the Gaul minders that the evacuees had? One of them would be happy to press the button.

penny wrote:Context guys. Until MoH a lot of people still did not believe. They only suspected, as far as the Onion knew. But my post was meant for the 90+ % of the galaxy who did not suspect or believe. Like the entire Solarian League. My statement is saying that Detweiler did not, could not, afford to change the opinions of the other 90+ % of the galaxy from only suspecting to removing all shadow of a doubt. He was trying to deny them a "smoking gun" by only leaving them a smoking hole in the ground.

Jonathan_S wrote:I'm sorry, I do now see you said "Until MoH a lot of people still did not believe"

I'd missed that because the conversation you were replying to appears to be almost entirely about MoH (or later) events, and so I missed you were talking about earlier instead of about what people believed when planning the attack on Mesa -- when their beliefs might affect the Houdini evacuation.