Why were they so foolish?

Theemile wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm still not convinced Jonathan, because there is a lot that would have been implied to unsound Solarian minds.

Gutted defenses also might mean spent missile supplies. (Which actually was almost true). That kind of battle had to eat into Manty stockpiles like Pac-Man smoking pot. Plus their shipyards and ability to replenish them was gone.

So perhaps I'm wrong and the Sols were thinking what I'm thinking. Even though the junction might not have been attacked, the missile supplies of the Forts would have had to be taken and redistributed amongst the navy. Holding onto the planet is more important than the MWJ. Weren't the Fort's missiles usable by the Navy?

Hence my notion that the Forts could have been posturing with an empty gun.

Even if the forts were Winchester (I can see taking some of their supplies - but not all), they still have their energy suites, and there would be minefields and IEWPs deployed to support them. Anything transiting would still have to run the gauntlet of directed energy fire without sidewalls or wedges to defend themselves, while the defenders could sit back beyond 500,000 km where even the heaviest Grasers cannot easily bleed through sidewalls. And if you send singletons, their 8 minutes solo in the emergence lane would cut them to shreds - if you send a max transit of 20 some ships, a few may reach the end of the emergence lane with some combat capability, but it would tie up the wormhole for 17 hours.

Understood. But if the MBS is so much of a barenaked lady it has to strip the Forts missile supply, then perhaps the mines were reallocated as well. Perhaps even the Forts were repositioned nearer the Queen like Rooks on a chessboard. Granted, that was easily checked. But still, it was a moot point because Filareta shouldn't have needed Tsang if he decided to attack.

At any rate, if the surrounding shoals of supporting mines around the junction are redistributed and the Fort's missiles are redistributed, then the Forts, even with their energy batteries, would have to be repositioned.

Too close to the junction and some ships will escape. Too far and all ships would survive. No?

cthia wrote:Understood. But if the MBS is so much of a barenaked lady it has to strip the Forts missile supply, then perhaps the mines were reallocated as well. Perhaps even the Forts were repositioned nearer the Queen like Rooks on a chessboard. Granted, that was easily checked. But still, it was a moot point because Filareta shouldn't have needed Tsang if he decided to attack.

At any rate, if the surrounding shoals of supporting mines around the junction are redistributed and the Fort's missiles are redistributed, then the Forts, even with their energy batteries, would have to be repositioned.

Too close to the junction and some ships will escape. Too far and all ships would survive. No?

The mines are unlikely, IMO, to be moved. They're hard to employ effectively in free space and they're not that useful around a planet against any serious attacker. So those are the defenses most likely to be left at the Junction.

Now it is possible some of the forts themselves might be called back to cover Manticore and Sphynx. We're told they can move, but at under 100g. However even at only 50g, which their grav plates should completely handle, a fort can move itself from the Junction to the planets in around 3 days.

So the Junction defenses might be weakened (fort removed, missiles/pods confiscated and redistributed) but it's unlikely the defenses would be completely removed.


But the truly mind boggling thing is that even though the Mandarins had a lot of time to covertly double-check their assumptions before Raging Justice could arrive they didn't bother. I can see going on unverified assumptions when there's no time; but because the attack had to go the long way while a recon trip could pop through the wormhole there would be no delay in checking their assumptions!

Jonathan_S wrote:But the truly mind boggling thing is that even though the Mandarins had a lot of time to covertly double-check their assumptions before Raging Justice could arrive they didn't bother. I can see going on unverified assumptions when there's no time; but because the attack had to go the long way while a recon trip could pop through the wormhole there would be no delay in checking their assumptions!

It's quite clear that the Mandarins' wishes and Tsang's orders were not the same. So even if the Mandarins had ordered covert assessment, that would not have changed the outcome. And who would they have ordered anyway? The same service that was giving Tsang her orders.

From the excerpts Duckk posted above, the Mandarins would not have seen even the need to gather more intel, because they never intended for Tsang to transit. All that Tsang would need to know she could see with her sensors: the Beowulf terminus and its defences (that the RMN could hide 60 SD(P)s was never in anyone's calculations). Their objective was to get Beowulf to stand in the way and thus cause Beowulf to lose face when the SLN showed restraint.

It was a bluff. A well-informed one, because when Adm. Simpson came back and said that the BSDF would stop them, the BSDF would have to make good on its word.

The only question unanswered here is what happens if the BSDF called Tsang's bluff? What were the Mandarins' contingency orders?

Finally, who changed the orders? Was it Kingsford? Someone in his staff, on the way to Tsang? And back to the OP's question: why was Tsang so stupid?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
It was a bluff. A well-informed one, because when Adm. Simpson came back and said that the BSDF would stop them, the BSDF would have to make good on its word.

The only question unanswered here is what happens if the BSDF called Tsang's bluff? What were the Mandarins' contingency orders?

Finally, who changed the orders? Was it Kingsford? Someone in his staff, on the way to Tsang? And back to the OP's question: why was Tsang so stupid?

Someone in the Naval Side changed the orders- well not so much changed them as issured orders from the CNO as the Mandarins are not writing Naval Orders. Rajampet was still in charge but it could have been under someone else's name at his direction. Remember he had Tsang sequestered at Ganymde when she came back.

Of couse then you have to ask that if she was going to push the BSDF into at least an exchange of fire and was then supposed to transit the wormhole, what happened to her whole sense of duty when "only" 60 RMN SD's dropped stealth and she discovered that both sides had the drop on her.
If she had 30 BSDF SDs to one vector and 60 RMN SDs to another her ability to both attack and defend was what we used to call "compromised". She is supposed to fight her way through BSDF if they stand in the way and then TRANSIT THE WORMHOLE AND GO TO THE SUPPORT OF FILLERTA.
She did not do that. She broke off. Tacticaly that was a very sound move.

What don't we see and what hasn't been talked about? Well there is the little matter of apparently both Beowulf and Manticore knowing that there is this little DB sitting not far off the Junction with impellers hot and waiting for "the word" of an attack on the Manticore Binary System by some 300 wallers. Fillerta shows up, news of that travels across the MBS litteraly faster than light and the Junction goes a bit nuts as merchant shipping starts screaming to be LET ME OUT OF DODGE-THOUGH THE WORMHOLE, along with those who just bail and run for the hyperlimit of the wormhole and get out of the way of any -presumed- other force that would be sent to hit the Junction defences and at least keep them from headding in-system.

So, when Fillerta crosses the hyperlimit into the MBS, and 1st has to make a choice then get's assasinated by the Aligment and the SLN fleet gets crushed buy the now GA fleet......why isn't a DB- actualy more likely at least a DD sent screaming though the Wormhole to the Sigma Draconis terminus and off to Adm Truman (and a DB to Beowulf) to tell her that a State of War now exists between the SLN and SKM (and HAVEN)?

Or has Tsang had enough time to turn tail & run from the combined BSDF/RMN force clearly in control and ready to smash her if she makes any further movement for the terminus?
Or Tsand perhaps just sort of "marches" (at whaever speed and formation would be used to take that posture) to the edge of the terminus hyperlimit and flits back to Sol?

Because when the courier DD arrives within communications range of Truman (and the BSDF) I could see (and it might even be ordered) that Truman might just tell Tsang that " your Admiral Fillerta is dead, your fleet is totaly destroyed or surrenedered and your Navy fired first so get out of my sky or die....you have x minutes. Start acclereating as hard as you can for the hyperlimit. And, yes, I can engage you at xxmil k".

Brigade XO wrote:Someone in the Naval Side changed the orders- well not so much changed them as issured orders from the CNO as the Mandarins are not writing Naval Orders. Rajampet was still in charge but it could have been under someone else's name at his direction. Remember he had Tsang sequestered at Ganymde when she came back.

Can someone confirm who the CNO was at the time Operation Arbaleta (Tsang's arm of Raging Justice) was launched? The OP in this thread suggests it was Kingsford and the fact that Adm. Simpson was his cousin would indicate so. But that's in contrast with Kingsford's character that we've been seeing.

If it was still Rajampet, it's a completely different story.

What don't we see and what hasn't been talked about? Well there is the little matter of apparently both Beowulf and Manticore knowing that there is this little DB sitting not far off the Junction with impellers hot and waiting for "the word" of an attack on the Manticore Binary System by some 300 wallers.

Quick note: 435.

Fillerta shows up, news of that travels across the MBS litteraly faster than light and the Junction goes a bit nuts as merchant shipping starts screaming to be LET ME OUT OF DODGE-THOUGH THE WORMHOLE, along with those who just bail and run for the hyperlimit of the wormhole and get out of the way of any -presumed- other force that would be sent to hit the Junction defences and at least keep them from headding in-system.

We don't actually know that the news was transmitted faster than light to the DB. We don't even know the actual timing between the two sides because the information flow was controlled by Manticore. As I argued in the previous thread we discussed this, it would be very easy for Manticore to withhold the information from any ship at the Junction for an hour or even two. The Hermes buoys were controlled by the RMN and ACS, so they decided when to disclose; light-speed communication would take 7 hours.

The only possibility for FTL is for a ship to come from the inner system via dogleg. That wouldn't be a freighter, they wouldn't dare use the Junction. But a dispatch or news boat might. In a dog leg course implies four hyperspace transitions, which I estimate at the lowest 40 minutes because of the hypergenerators recharging. Plus whatever time it took this ship to reach the Manticore-A hyperlimit.

So, when Fillerta crosses the hyperlimit into the MBS, and 1st has to make a choice then get's assasinated by the Aligment and the SLN fleet gets crushed buy the now GA fleet......why isn't a DB- actualy more likely at least a DD sent screaming though the Wormhole to the Sigma Draconis terminus and off to Adm Truman (and a DB to Beowulf) to tell her that a State of War now exists between the SLN and SKM (and HAVEN)?

Because there were no DDs left to do that. All ships apparently crossed into the hyperlimit and thus surrendered. Remember also that Tourville transited behind them, so they had no easy escape either.

There's also the limiting factor that Filareta didn't know about Tsang! That entire part of the operation was devised after he got his marching orders to sail to Manticore and rightly so because he would have sent word back not to do such a stupid thing.

There might have been another DB in the inner system ready to go to the Junction. In fact, I think that's likely: that must have been how the SLN expected to get the news from Filareta's arrival to the DB that was in the outgoing queue. But the SLN couldn't count on it: after the SLN attacked, the RMN would be in its rights to block SLN boats from transiting.

Unless you meant the RMN would send such a message to Truman. That wasn't necessary. First, Truman knew that Filareta was arriving and knew of Honor and Theisman's plans to trap him. Second, there was no need for a DD, since the RMN does have the Hermes network, so it could get the message from the inner system to the junction in under 7 minutes and can cross the Junction carried by the next ship. And finally, Manticore had already declared that a state of war existed between the Empire and the League.

Because when the courier DD arrives within communications range of Truman (and the BSDF) I could see (and it might even be ordered) that Truman might just tell Tsang that " your Admiral Fillerta is dead, your fleet is totaly destroyed or surrenedered and your Navy fired first so get out of my sky or die....you have x minutes. Start acclereating as hard as you can for the hyperlimit. And, yes, I can engage you at xxmil k".

Tsang would have no reason to believe that and all the reason to disbelieve it.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:We don't actually know that the news was transmitted faster than light to the DB. We don't even know the actual timing between the two sides because the information flow was controlled by Manticore. As I argued in the previous thread we discussed this, it would be very easy for Manticore to withhold the information from any ship at the Junction for an hour or even two. The Hermes buoys were controlled by the RMN and ACS, so they decided when to disclose; light-speed communication would take 7 hours.

The only possibility for FTL is for a ship to come from the inner system via dogleg. That wouldn't be a freighter, they wouldn't dare use the Junction. But a dispatch or news boat might. In a dog leg course implies four hyperspace transitions, which I estimate at the lowest 40 minutes because of the hypergenerators recharging. Plus whatever time it took this ship to reach the Manticore-A hyperlimit.

Confused me for a moment; but are you saying 4 transitions meaning 2 entries and 2 exits? Certainly a dogleg would require that; and don't forget jumps that short would have a high amount of variability; so set your aim points with room to still be safe if you drop out short. (But for a moment I thought you meant 4 hyper segments and couldn't see what the extra 2 were needed for)


Though actually you might not even need to dogleg at all. Seems to me you could clear the Manticore-A hyper limit at any point along the periphery[1] and just jump to an exit point far enough beyond the Junction's hyper limit that even dropping out short still leaves you abreast of or beyond the Junction. Even being off to a side keeps you out of the RZ and such a jump should put you close enough to eliminate most of the radio transmission lag; even if it'd take you a while to motor your ship over to where you could actually use the junction. (But be really sure you don't drop out short of the Junction cause that could easily place you in the RZ; and your ship wouldn't survive that particular mistake)

[1] Doesn't matter if you're inside the RZ because you can safely enter hyper from there; it's only exiting that's deadly

Re: the DB and timings...

Rather than snipping, I thought it more efficient to just type my thoughts... here goes. As we've been told, sensors can pick up the grav signatures of the transition to n-space that are FTL. So even if the SLN dispatch boat is half-blind in terms of the "space sphere", they'd have enough info to focus whatever sensors in the right general direction to detect Filereta's arrival, presumably within moments of the SKM detecting the hyper footprint of so many big ships.

Granted, the DB commander ought to have been a little suspicious when they suddenly were basically given permission to fulfill their mission and trigger Tsang's whatever. Where Tsang and the planner's arrogance shows up is that the DB wasn't ordered / didn't bring at least a limited tactical survey with them. Then again, in the Honorverse as written, we know what happens to alarmist officers because of what happened at New Tuscany, no? AKA don't tell the admiral what he or she doesn't want to hear.

SharkHunter wrote:Re: the DB and timings...

Rather than snipping, I thought it more efficient to just type my thoughts... here goes. As we've been told, sensors can pick up the grav signatures of the transition to n-space that are FTL. So even if the SLN dispatch boat is half-blind in terms of the "space sphere", they'd have enough info to focus whatever sensors in the right general direction to detect Filereta's arrival, presumably within moments of the SKM detecting the hyper footprint of so many big ships.

Granted, the DB commander ought to have been a little suspicious when they suddenly were basically given permission to fulfill their mission and trigger Tsang's whatever. Where Tsang and the planner's arrogance shows up is that the DB wasn't ordered / didn't bring at least a limited tactical survey with them. Then again, in the Honorverse as written, we know what happens to alarmist officers because of what happened at New Tuscany, no? AKA don't tell the admiral what he or she doesn't want to hear.

Problem is even a warship's sensors can only see that hyper emergence signal from less than a lighthour away (and can only see impeller drives from even less range than that). The dinky sensors you could cram on a little DB probably aren't anywhere near as capable as those on an actual warship.

And the DB is out by the Junction, 7 light hours away from Filereta's arrival. It's simply not going to be able see a thing from that arrival using its own sensors.

Jonathan_S wrote:Confused me for a moment; but are you saying 4 transitions meaning 2 entries and 2 exits? Certainly a dogleg would require that; and don't forget jumps that short would have a high amount of variability; so set your aim points with room to still be safe if you drop out short. (But for a moment I thought you meant 4 hyper segments and couldn't see what the extra 2 were needed for)


Though actually you might not even need to dogleg at all. Seems to me you could clear the Manticore-A hyper limit at any point along the periphery[1] and just jump to an exit point far enough beyond the Junction's hyper limit that even dropping out short still leaves you abreast of or beyond the Junction. Even being off to a side keeps you out of the RZ and such a jump should put you close enough to eliminate most of the radio transmission lag; even if it'd take you a while to motor your ship over to where you could actually use the junction. (But be really sure you don't drop out short of the Junction cause that could easily place you in the RZ; and your ship wouldn't survive that particular mistake)

[1] Doesn't matter if you're inside the RZ because you can safely enter hyper from there; it's only exiting that's deadly

Yes, I did mean two sets of translations: from n-space at the hyperlimit to alpha, from alpha to n-space at the mid-point; then again from that point back into alpha and then from alpha back to n-space near the Junction.

The reason for that is the RZ. Unfortunately, the RZ characteristics are still a bit under-defined. It mustn't be completely impossible to transit in and out of it, otherwise -- as I've argued before -- ships would have failed to either enter or exit hyperspace near systems with wormholes for centuries, thereby clearly spelling out "there's a wormhole in this system." The RZ is a cone whose base is the radius of the star's hyperlimit, so it covers nearly 50% of the area immediately outside the hyperlimit, on the plane of the system's ecliptic (which we're also told ships prefer). Ships were translating into and out of hyper in Manticore and Sigma Draconis for a long time without ever noticing this. It would also be a very simple test for any system: make four transitions, 90° apart, and see if one of them exhibits an RZ issue.

Like Felix.

Anyway, regardless of why a dogleg course is necessary, we know it is. When Truman came from Trevor's Star with Third Fleet to succour Home Fleet during the Battle of Manticore, she implemented a dogleg course. This was the direst of circumstances, a Case Zulu. If there's any reason for skipping the dogleg, this would be it. And yet she didn't. (though she also forgot to roll pods, so her judgment at the time was compromised as a result of being hit hard in the head by the Au-Thor's Hammer)

Later, Honor did take Eighth Fleet from the Junction to Manticore-A without a dogleg. She specifically had to ask her navigators to calculate this and they warned her of the dangers and imprecisions. And Adm. Chin accepted without question that Honor would arrive 70 million km away and thus, for all she knew, out of missile range.

With all that, I can say with confidence no civilian ship would take the direct route. It was another case of Case Zulu, but the civilian news or dispatch boat doesn't need to risk the lives of their occupants. The first to break the news would probably be the one closest to the hyper limit anyway, not the one that made the shortest course. Or the one luckiest to find a colleague already in the transit queue at the Junction.

I was thinking in terms of a RMN DD being sent through the Junction to ADM Truman (warship- not as fast as a DB but it would be unmistakable for what it was) and carrying orders for Truman.

Traveling across the Binary System at the the speed of light.....FTL where possible out to the Junction- by RMN ships so depending on what was in transit and range between Manticore to the Junction it woiuld move faster.

Of course, other than telling Truman and Beowulf that 1) SLN had committed an act of war against Manticore (and at least it's new allied partner Haven), what - if anything other than letting Tsang slink home did the Government wish Truman to do. At the very least, notifying Tsang of the destruction or capture and the state of war instigated by the dead Fillerta would be something they might want transmitted though to be sure it would get out it would be better going by Diplomatic Courier at the same time as the various news boats were rushing to file stories.