The Two General's Problem

tlb wrote:You are correct in saying that the Malign did more damage in Manticore's home system with Oyster Bay than the Solarian League or Haven accomplished. But it was NOT a win for the Malign, because it did NOT advance the Plan. The attack had to be rushed, because the new link to the Talbott Quadrant brought Manticore too close to Mesa. For all the damage, it did not even tip the balance into Haven's favor in its conflict with Manticore. The result for the Onion was that Houdini had to be rushed.

The Alphas are smart, but not smart enough to make the six hundred year old plan work. Particularly when it can be derailed by the defection of one or two men.

Let's be clear, the Detweilers are peak Alphas and Bardasano was not far behind. But the Bardasano genome also illustrates the problem with the Alphas: members were not culled because of sexual deviancy (that only knocked the rating to Beta from Alpha); but because they displayed too much ruthless ambition, which made them a danger to the Detweilers. No one was allowed to be better than the Detweilers.

Yeah, Oyster Bay was a massive tactical victory.
But it utterly failed to advance the MAlign's stated strategic plan and actually helped Manticore and Haven ally with each other which set the groundwork for the rapid and relatively bloodless defeat of the League. So to that extent it appears to have been a strategic own goal.

Because using the League to set the preconditions for the Renaissance Factor's consolidation of all power was a major milestone on the MAlign's generational plan to gain the upper hand, legalize all genetic uplift, and see the Beowulfian genetic community and its precious rules overthrown.

A plan that was already falling apart; but which Oyster Bay helped irrevocably derail.

So yeah, you need to be pretty smart to develop the tools that enabled Oyster Bay, though given them and a surprise attack you don't need to more than average competence to pull off such a tactical win. But a true genius would look beyond the immediate tactical and weigh on whether or not a tactical win here is actually helpful to the overall goal -- and that's the part that for whatever reason those in charge of the MAlign failed at.

tlb wrote:You are correct in saying that the Malign did more damage in Manticore's home system with Oyster Bay than the Solarian League or Haven accomplished. But it was NOT a win for the Malign, because it did NOT advance the Plan. The attack had to be rushed, because the new link to the Talbott Quadrant brought Manticore too close to Mesa. For all the damage, it did not even tip the balance into Haven's favor in its conflict with Manticore. The result for the Onion was that Houdini had to be rushed.

The Alphas are smart, but not smart enough to make the six hundred year old plan work. Particularly when it can be derailed by the defection of one or two men.

Jonathan_S wrote:Yeah, Oyster Bay was a massive tactical victory.
But it utterly failed to advance the MAlign's stated strategic plan and actually helped Manticore and Haven ally with each other which set the groundwork for the rapid and relatively bloodless defeat of the League. So to that extent it appears to have been a strategic own goal.

Because using the League to set the preconditions for the Renaissance Factor's consolidation of all power was a major milestone on the MAlign's generational plan to gain the upper hand, legalize all genetic uplift, and see the Beowulfian genetic community and its precious rules overthrown.

A plan that was already falling apart; but which Oyster Bay helped irrevocably derail.

So yeah, you need to be pretty smart to develop the tools that enabled Oyster Bay, though given them and a surprise attack you don't need to more than average competence to pull off such a tactical win. But a true genius would look beyond the immediate tactical and weigh on whether or not a tactical win here is actually helpful to the overall goal -- and that's the part that for whatever reason those in charge of the MAlign failed at.

I do not believe that Oyster Bay directly led to the Grand Alliance between Manticore, Grayson and Haven, but there might be an indirect way that it helped.

I would say that the direct cause was the defection of Herlander Simões and the information he brought of the malicious meddling that had led to Haven's descent from a republic to a peoples' dictatorship.

The indirect way was that the Yawata Strike and the looming crisis with the Solarian League, created the pressure to send a diplomatic mission to Haven with the choice of a resolution of the war by either a treaty or conquest. Being offered a peace treaty when the conquest seemed inevitable created enough goodwill, which combined with the new information, to cause Thomas Theisman and Eloise Pritchart to travel to Manticore to cement the peace.

penny wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Why would their on-average-superior intellect make them more prone to developing one particular technology though not another? As I've just posted above, their breakthroughs anywhere except biological sciences have been entirely borne out of brute force. Their new missiles were not new developments, they are copies of what the GA has. They didn't see those developments coming any more than Haven or the League did (I'd argue that the Andermani did see it coming through espionage, but remained quiet about it).

snip

What's more, the Alphas are all full of failings and blind spots. This could be one of them: "we are plenty smart so we don't need smarter computers."

penny wrote:I am shocked at your logic without you at least issuing grains of salt. It is true that their new missiles are reengineered technology. Look how quickly they developed those weapons. And behind the scenes no doubt. But what did they utilize those missiles for?

1. To supply to the SLN to make a fool of themselves w/o the tech leading back to them.

2. In defense of Galton who were simply a cutout and a scapegoat. The MAN were withholding tech from Galton even in defense of it.

So, and I am not saying this is what happened, but I always cautioned my brain against it. The MAN could have reengineered all of their reengineered brute force missiles and tech simply to protect their own tech. They didn’t need to supply the SLN with any of their own tech. In fact, if it was planned, and it was, then it is brilliant of them to reengineer the tech behind the rest of the galaxy’s missiles so quickly, simply to give to the SLN and in defense of Galton. A surefire brilliant way to keep their own tech under wraps. By fighting those battles with tech already out there.

tlb wrote: snip

There is no evidence that they have thinkers better than what can be found in the Honorverse at large (even excluding Honor). The prime evidence for this lack is the failed performance of their six century plan so far. The remaining Detweilers admit there have to be a lot of adjustments. Snip

re-edited

penny wrote:Why is this a common theme??? Many of you judge the success of the Malign’s Alpha program by the flaws in a six centuries old plan??? Come on! Sure, some things went wrong. To me, that simply shows that they are human. Well, still human as of now.

Newsflash: They are Alphas NOT soothsayers.

They don’t have a witch wielding a crystal ball conjuring up images to see into the future! (With the possible exception of Anisimovna whose intelligence shown thus far makes me think she is Honor’s doppelganger.)

Just to attempt a plan that will encompass six centuries is incredible!!! Mind-boggling is what it is! And to have so much of it go RIGHT is even more astonishing. And why did they need to develop the galaxy’s weapons when they utilized various navy’s and their fleets as if they were their own?

Does anyone realize that Alpha intelligence moved entire fleets of other navies around the board like they owned them? The Malign utilized Haven’s navy to attack Manticore. The SLN to attack Manticore. And the RMN to attack Sol and Haven. And you still doubt Alpha intelligence? Where is the need for developing warships and weapons when you can simply commandeer entire fleets of OPN!

Other People’s Navies.

Y’all ain’t gonna like me for this ... but it’s true.

If truth be told, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than the SLN.

If we include all of the truth, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than Haven!

They all lost. But the MA didn’t lose any ships or lives in their “indirect” attacks.

Psychological win.
Attritional win.

And y'all still doubt the level of their intelligence.

Don’t miss the extent of their brilliance. All of this is true, even without Oyster Bay! IOW, simply considering their two “indirect attacks.” Which is the point that I was aiming for.

For an enemy who is said to not possibly have the tonnage for a real war has managed to scrape up enough tonnage to attack the MBS not once. Not twice. But three times! All for the loss of no men no women and no warships.

And they robbed someone else's Peter and Paul to do it!

The MAN raided the cookie jars of the SLN, the GSN the RHN and the RMN.



P.S. Wait! They scraped up the tonnage to attack the SL and Haven as well!

No other Admiralty has even come close to that feat. And I really like Theisman and adored Caparelli.

penny wrote:Don’t miss the extent of their brilliance. All of this is true, even without Oyster Bay! IOW, simply considering their two “indirect attacks.” Which is the point that I was aiming for.

For an enemy who is said to not possibly have the tonnage for a real war has managed to scrape up enough tonnage to attack the MBS not once. Not twice. But three times! All for the loss of no men no women and no warships.

And they robbed someone else's Peter and Paul to do it!

The MAN raided the cookie jars of the SLN, the GSN the RHN and the RMN.

P.S. Wait! They scraped up the tonnage to attack the SL and Haven as well!

No other Admiralty has been able to come close to that feat. And I really like Theisman and adored Caparelli.

Why not also point to the destruction of Beowulf's orbitals, which killed about forty million inhabitants, as additional proof of their brilliance? Is it because it only shows their ruthlessness?

I give them credit for being smart enough to develop unmanned methods of attack (including the bombs in the orbitals) and to use human weakness to engineer wars. But that does not make them the smartest people in the galaxy, just one of the more stealthy. They could create chaos, but not complete their plan.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:Don’t miss the extent of their brilliance. All of this is true, even without Oyster Bay! IOW, simply considering their two “indirect attacks.” Which is the point that I was aiming for.

For an enemy who is said to not possibly have the tonnage for a real war has managed to scrape up enough tonnage to attack the MBS not once. Not twice. But three times! All for the loss of no men no women and no warships.

And they robbed someone else's Peter and Paul to do it!

The MAN raided the cookie jars of the SLN, the GSN the RHN and the RMN.

P.S. Wait! They scraped up the tonnage to attack the SL and Haven as well!

No other Admiralty has been able to come close to that feat. And I really like Theisman and adored Caparelli.

Why not also point to the destruction of Beowulf's orbitals, which killed about forty million inhabitants, as additional proof of their brilliance? Is it because it only shows their ruthlessness?

I give them credit for being smart enough to develop unmanned methods of attack (including the bombs in the orbitals) and to use human weakness to engineer wars. But that does not make them the smartest people in the galaxy, just one of the more stealthy. They could create chaos, but not complete their plan.

Because there are many similar examples to cite. Like getting three destroyers blown out of space as the catalyst for their war. Then getting Byng’s ass blown up. Oh no. I merely thought everyone was able to add the missing footnotes to that logic on their own.

Can’t an enemy be ruthless and brilliant? I mean, we already know they are ruthless. Their genetic research let that cat out of the bag. The MAN pulled off a Pearl Harbor without being attacked for it.


Sun Tzu would definitely be impressed…

Make the enemy destroy themselves.

Sounds like something he’d say anyway.

tlb wrote:Why not also point to the destruction of Beowulf's orbitals, which killed about forty million inhabitants, as additional proof of their brilliance? Is it because it only shows their ruthlessness?

I give them credit for being smart enough to develop unmanned methods of attack (including the bombs in the orbitals) and to use human weakness to engineer wars. But that does not make them the smartest people in the galaxy, just one of the more stealthy. They could create chaos, but not complete their plan.

penny wrote:Because there are many similar examples to cite. Like getting three destroyers blown out of space as the catalyst for their war. Then getting Byng’s ass blown up. Oh no. I merely thought everyone was able to add the missing footnotes to that logic on their own.

Can’t an enemy be ruthless and brilliant? I mean, we already know they are ruthless. Their genetic research let that cat out of the bag. The MAN pulled off a Pearl Harbor without being attacked for it.

Sun Tzu would definitely be impressed…

Make the enemy destroy themselves.

Sounds like something he’d say anyway.

They have been ruthless and smart, but have not achieved brilliance.

You do not need to list every event in the wars that they started, I recognize that they started the wars. So people have died and things were destroyed, but the enemy is as strong as ever! Not what Sun Tzu would have wanted.

Pearl Harbor is a very good analogy for what they accomplished, which was to unite their enemies by making them angry. The Japanese thought that they just had to win one major battle and the US would sue for peace. Now the Detweilers have to reformulate their Plan and hope that the Renaissance Factor does not fall apart in the meantime.

PS: Is the ability to cause chaos why you thought Aldona Anisimovna was as brilliant as Honor?

tlb wrote:I do not believe that Oyster Bay directly led to the Grand Alliance between Manticore, Grayson and Haven, but there might be an indirect way that it helped.

I would say that the direct cause was the defection of Herlander Simões and the information he brought of the malicious meddling that had led to Haven's descent from a republic to a peoples' dictatorship.

I would say it was a necessary condition and thus it was indeed a direct cause. If the attack hadn't happened, Manticore wouldn't have been predisposed to believing a covert actor was manipulating events and possessed unknown, stealth drive technology. Since they had already concluded that, Herlander Simões with confirmation that such an actor was operating out of Mesa and had some corroborating evidence was believed. Likewise, Haven knew they hadn't attacked Manticore, so bringing the evidence to them was a possibility, whereas if OB hadn't happened this might have saved for later.

The indirect way was that the Yawata Strike and the looming crisis with the Solarian League, created the pressure to send a diplomatic mission to Haven with the choice of a resolution of the war by either a treaty or conquest. Being offered a peace treaty when the conquest seemed inevitable created enough goodwill, which combined with the new information, to cause Thomas Theisman and Eloise Pritchart to travel to Manticore to cement the peace.

Minor timeline correction here: the attack happened while Honor was on Haven negotiating the peace. She had no foreknowledge of the Strike.

tlb wrote:I do not believe that Oyster Bay directly led to the Grand Alliance between Manticore, Grayson and Haven, but there might be an indirect way that it helped.

I would say that the direct cause was the defection of Herlander Simões and the information he brought of the malicious meddling that had led to Haven's descent from a republic to a peoples' dictatorship.

The indirect way was that the Yawata Strike and the looming crisis with the Solarian League, created the pressure to send a diplomatic mission to Haven with the choice of a resolution of the war by either a treaty or conquest. Being offered a peace treaty when the conquest seemed inevitable created enough goodwill, which combined with the new information, to cause Thomas Theisman and Eloise Pritchart to travel to Manticore to cement the peace.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I would say it was a necessary condition and thus it was indeed a direct cause. If the attack hadn't happened, Manticore wouldn't have been predisposed to believing a covert actor was manipulating events and possessed unknown, stealth drive technology. Since they had already concluded that, Herlander Simões with confirmation that such an actor was operating out of Mesa and had some corroborating evidence was believed. Likewise, Haven knew they hadn't attacked Manticore, so bringing the evidence to them was a possibility, whereas if OB hadn't happened this might have saved for later.

Minor timeline correction here: the attack happened while Honor was on Haven negotiating the peace. She had no foreknowledge of the Strike.

You are correct about the timeline error, it was only the impending crisis with the Solarian League that caused Honor to be sent on the peace mission.

But I think you are wrong about the Yawata Strike being a necessary condition, since Herlander was accompanied by Zilwicki. Zilwicki is also why it would not have been saved for later, if Honor were still at Haven then the evidence would have been presented to both parties.

If the attack had occurred later, then there might already have been a peace treaty signed. We can have differences over the timing of the Grand Alliance; the Yawata Strike made it certain, but a manipulated SLN might still have faced a united front in its absence.

tlb wrote:Pearl Harbor is a very good analogy for what they accomplished, which was to unite their enemies by making them angry. The Japanese thought that they just had to win one major battle and the US would sue for peace. Now the Detweilers have to reformulate their Plan and hope that the Renaissance Factor does not fall apart in the meantime.

And the worst part is the MAlign pretty much had to have known of that history around Pearl Harbor when they chose to call their surprise attack in time of peace Oyster Bay. So they had to have known about how a tactical success can make a strategic defeat inevitable -- and they did it ANYWAY!

Even if the RF doesn't fall apart with Haven & Manticore united and the League well on its way to reform, the MAlign lost the preconditions they needed for the RF to become the core of the galaxy's power and government. So even if the RF stays coordinated and each member retains every association they've picked up, the plan is still hopelessly derailed and the MAlign will need to back up and try something different. (After their existence has been exposed so people are looking for them and looking for their attempts to influence things)



The really smart thing would have been to abandon the petty personal grievances of the original MAlign and change the laws and perceptions around "genies" by shaping public opinion and other soft power tactics.

The fairly smart thing would have been to realize that the plan wasn't going to work once the Haven sector went through its unexpected Dreadnaught revolutions and disrupted the military power paradigm and pulled back until they had time to adjust their plans, infiltrate any new sleeper families, corrupt players in the new power structures, and revisit their operational plan to shatter the League after the preconditions for that were reestablished. After all they'd been working on this secret plan for over four hundred years; what's an extra several decades to let the new military technology inevitable disseminate to all players.

But no, this generation was "the one" and wasn't willing to step back, do the smart thing, and later a later generation bring the plan to a successful fruition. So they improvised, and scrambled, and made a hash of it. Hardly what you'd expect from true genius.

tlb wrote:Pearl Harbor is a very good analogy for what they accomplished, which was to unite their enemies by making them angry. The Japanese thought that they just had to win one major battle and the US would sue for peace. Now the Detweilers have to reformulate their Plan and hope that the Renaissance Factor does not fall apart in the meantime.

Jonathan_S wrote:And the worst part is the MAlign pretty much had to have known of that history around Pearl Harbor when they chose to call their surprise attack in time of peace Oyster Bay. So they had to have known about how a tactical success can make a strategic defeat inevitable -- and they did it ANYWAY!

I once attended a talk about the movie "2001: a Space Odyssey" and it was claimed that no one realized that the computer name (HAL9000) was one letter shift away from IBM. Although I can understand denying the similarity, no one in the audience completely believed it was not intentional. Still it is entirely possible that this was a joke by the author, without really reflecting the knowledge of the Malign.

PS: Although the Malign were not recognized as being part of the hostilities, it was not done in peacetime. Manticore was already facing a two front war if the League did not back down and Haven did not accept a peace treaty.