Remaining holes in SLN intel

Somewhat off-topic:
I want to discuss about the real hole in SLN collective intelligence: why no Admiral had enough sense to see plainly that the Solarian League was ripe for a military coup and to seize the opportunity with both hands. What I mean is that if the Solarian public accepted for centuries to be ruled by unelected bureaucrats, it would hardly bat an eyelid to be ruled by another group of unelected bureaucrats, this time the ones commanding SDs and BCs. After all, this is what SLN Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet are: two additional bureaucracies to the five main ones, but with all the real firepower.

This idea stuck me when I re-read the 2016 revised edition of Edward N. Luttwak's classic "Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook" He defines three preconditions for a military coup to be practicable: a) the political participation must be confined to a small fraction of the population; b) the target state must be substantially independent; c) the target state must have a political center, or, if there are several centers, these must be identifiable, and they must be politically, rather than ethnically, structured. The Solarian League meets all the three conditions !

Think about it: who really supports the Quintet (Kolokoltsov & co):
- The five bureaucracies they lead (including the OFS satraps);
- Some corrupt transstellars;
- Most of the Assembly;
- Many newsies.
- Bueller, Bueller ...

Now, let's say the Solarian CNO simply arrested the Quintet and told the five bureaucracies that the Navy are the new bosses in town or else, who would oppose him ? The answer is nobody of importance. The Solarian ministers could be taken into protective custody by the Navy and threatened with a form of 'Case Buccaneer' on their home planets. A few reporters could be disappeared or shot by 'criminals' in the street to frighten the rest (like Anna Politkovskaia), the transstellars would be told their bribes would be smaller but would go to CNO and other admirals or else their ships would be targeted by 'Case Buccaneer'. The CNO would order the local Frontier Fleet commanders to arrest the OFS satraps and assume their attributes.

The only way to prevent such military coups is to have in place control mechanisms over the armed forces (think Haven's People's Commissioners) combined with a Pretorian Guard hand-picked for its loyalty (think Haven StateSec's SDs and BCs). For example, in the 2016 preface of his book, Luttwak gives the example of Syria, where "even before the civil war now under way, the ruling regime of President Bashar al-Assad already had five separate and competing espionage services", whose main function is to keep their own armed forces under constant scrutiny, and also to run sting operations using agents posing as anti-regime conspirators to rat out disloyal officers and paralyze any would-be coup plotter.

To give another example, in USSR the Communist Party was also paranoid of a military coup and had several precautions against it:
- The screening for communist orthodoxy and political reliability on any officer candidate;
- The direct selection of all flag officers by the Party's Central Committee (or by the Politburo for those with three stars or more) after intense scrutiny on communist orthodoxy and political reliability;
- The personnel 'ethnic mixing and matching' to ensure that no large unit was composed overwhelmingly from one ethnicity (say, Ukrainian) and risked having Nationalist loyalties;
- The presence in Moscow of several NKVD/KGB 'Pretorian Guard' formations, such as the Kremlin Regiment aka UKMK (always a NKVD/KGB function, never an Army one);
- The presence in Moscow of several Army 'Pretorian Guard' formations, such as the 'Kantemirov' Tank Division and the 2nd Guards 'Taman' Motorised Infantry Division.

In USSR there were three additional 'leashes' to keep the army in check:
- Every Army battalion and higher had at least a Peoples' Commissar (replaced by the Political Officer or zampolit during WWII) who reported to the Party's Central Committee;
- Every Army battalion and higher had a 'Special section' headed by a NKVD/KGB officer (these sections were subordinated to a special NKVD branch called SMERSH during WWII);
- Every Army field and flag officer was assigned young female secretaries and telegraphists that were all agents of a third control structure called Peoples' Control or Rabkrin that reported directly to Stalin.

The Quintet has no such external control over SLN, no real power base and no popular legitimacy. A competently planned military coup would wipe them out and it is a miracle no Admiral tried it yet.

A competent SLMC LTC could wipe them all out. And the perfumed princes of the SLN.

Couldn't take over the SL, but could "fix" the government issues.

kzt wrote:A competent SLMC LTC could wipe them all out. And the perfumed princes of the SLN.

Couldn't take over the SL, but could "fix" the government issues.

Going back a book, what was the young lady's rank? The Marine?

As this has not happened, what is the likelihood that there are in fact hidden defense structures against this nonsense?

Hegemon wrote:Somewhat off-topic:
I want to discuss about the real hole in SLN collective intelligence: why no Admiral had enough sense to see plainly that the Solarian League was ripe for a military coup and to seize the opportunity with both hands. What I mean is that if the Solarian public accepted for centuries to be ruled by unelected bureaucrats, it would hardly bat an eyelid to be ruled by another group of unelected bureaucrats, this time the ones commanding SDs and BCs. After all, this is what SLN Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet are: two additional bureaucracies to the five main ones, but with all the real firepower.

This idea stuck me when I re-read the 2016 revised edition of Edward N. Luttwak's classic "Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook" He defines three preconditions for a military coup to be practicable: a) the political participation must be confined to a small fraction of the population; b) the target state must be substantially independent; c) the target state must have a political center, or, if there are several centers, these must be identifiable, and they must be politically, rather than ethnically, structured. The Solarian League meets all the three conditions !

Think about it: who really supports the Quintet (Kolokoltsov & co):
- The five bureaucracies they lead (including the OFS satraps);
- Some corrupt transstellars;
- Most of the Assembly;
- Many newsies.
- Bueller, Bueller ...

Now, let's say the Solarian CNO simply arrested the Quintet and told the five bureaucracies that the Navy are the new bosses in town or else, who would oppose him ? The answer is nobody of importance. The Solarian ministers could be taken into protective custody by the Navy and threatened with a form of 'Case Buccaneer' on their home planets. A few reporters could be disappeared or shot by 'criminals' in the street to frighten the rest (like Anna Politkovskaia), the transstellars would be told their bribes would be smaller but would go to CNO and other admirals or else their ships would be targeted by 'Case Buccaneer'. The CNO would order the local Frontier Fleet commanders to arrest the OFS satraps and assume their attributes.

The only way to prevent such military coups is to have in place control mechanisms over the armed forces (think Haven's People's Commissioners) combined with a Pretorian Guard hand-picked for its loyalty (think Haven StateSec's SDs and BCs). For example, in the 2016 preface of his book, Luttwak gives the example of Syria, where "even before the civil war now under way, the ruling regime of President Bashar al-Assad already had five separate and competing espionage services", whose main function is to keep their own armed forces under constant scrutiny, and also to run sting operations using agents posing as anti-regime conspirators to rat out disloyal officers and paralyze any would-be coup plotter.

To give another example, in USSR the Communist Party was also paranoid of a military coup and had several precautions against it:
- The screening for communist orthodoxy and political reliability on any officer candidate;
- The direct selection of all flag officers by the Party's Central Committee (or by the Politburo for those with three stars or more) after intense scrutiny on communist orthodoxy and political reliability;
- The personnel 'ethnic mixing and matching' to ensure that no large unit was composed overwhelmingly from one ethnicity (say, Ukrainian) and risked having Nationalist loyalties;
- The presence in Moscow of several NKVD/KGB 'Pretorian Guard' formations, such as the Kremlin Regiment aka UKMK (always a NKVD/KGB function, never an Army one);
- The presence in Moscow of several Army 'Pretorian Guard' formations, such as the 'Kantemirov' Tank Division and the 2nd Guards 'Taman' Motorised Infantry Division.

In USSR there were three additional 'leashes' to keep the army in check:
- Every Army battalion and higher had at least a Peoples' Commissar (replaced by the Political Officer or zampolit during WWII) who reported to the Party's Central Committee;
- Every Army battalion and higher had a 'Special section' headed by a NKVD/KGB officer (these sections were subordinated to a special NKVD branch called SMERSH during WWII);
- Every Army field and flag officer was assigned young female secretaries and telegraphists that were all agents of a third control structure called Peoples' Control or Rabkrin that reported directly to Stalin.

The Quintet has no such external control over SLN, no real power base and no popular legitimacy. A competently planned military coup would wipe them out and it is a miracle no Admiral tried it yet.

Very interesting post. The Mandarins were successful in pulling off their own coup, says one of my Romanian friends. So why not?

A mind from Bucuresti wrote:Someone should go about and pull a Theisman on the Mandarins. Bang bang, this is a coup. Effectively the same thing the Mandarins have done themselves. They have instigated their own coup and the entire apparatus of the Solarian League has made the coup so easy by putting every required key into their hands. I'm from Ro, we think in terms of coups.

cthia wrote:Very interesting post. The Mandarins were successful in pulling off their own coup, says one of my Romanian friends. So why not?

A mind from Bucuresti wrote:Someone should go about and pull a Theisman on the Mandarins. Bang bang, this is a coup. Effectively the same thing the Mandarins have done themselves. They have instigated their own coup and the entire apparatus of the Solarian League has made the coup so easy by putting every required key into their hands. I'm from Ro, we think in terms of coups.

Yes, the Mandarins' ascent to power can be called a coup.

My point is that the Solarian League real power structure is built on sand. There are seven illegitimate bureaucracies, but two of them (Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet) have all the firepower aka, you know "the final argument of kings" (to quote the inscription Louis XIV of France ordered on every artillery piece).

The five Mandarins have NO popular power base, and the military power is not under their direct control. The five Mandarins and their bureaucracies can only cajole and bribe opinion leaders and politicians.

The CNO can match that (SLN is very rich, you know) but can also order anyone blown out of space. In the absence of any other checks and balances, this should have already made him by far the most powerful man in the Solarian League.

phillies wrote:

kzt wrote:A competent SLMC LTC could wipe them all out. And the perfumed princes of the SLN.

Couldn't take over the SL, but could "fix" the government issues.

Going back a book, what was the young lady's rank? The Marine?

As this has not happened, what is the likelihood that there are in fact hidden defense structures against this nonsense?

Well, one 'hidden defence' may be the fact that (to paraphrase Michelle Henke) the selection process of SLN flag officers seems to have the stringent requirement of lower than average IQ and common sense .

Seriously, there is one mechanism that worked historically during the Roman Republic and Georgian Britain (and worked well for the Havenite Legislaturists until the Pierre coup): to ensure that the flag officers were from the same class and even from the same families as the leading bureaucrats. There are hints that something like that is at least partially taking place in SLN, but it is not clear if it is due to conscious policy of the Mandarins.
However, there are many cases where such a policy is not enough on its own to prevent military coups followed by harsh military dictatorships. See for example the history of South America from the 19th century until now.

phillies wrote:

kzt wrote:A competent SLMC LTC could wipe them all out. And the perfumed princes of the SLN.

Couldn't take over the SL, but could "fix" the government issues.

Going back a book, what was the young lady's rank? The Marine?

As this has not happened, what is the likelihood that there are in fact hidden defense structures against this nonsense?

Hegemon wrote:Well, one 'hidden defence' may be the fact that (to paraphrase Michelle Henke) the selection process of SLN flag officers seems to have the stringent requirement of lower than average IQ and common sense .

Seriously, there is one mechanism that worked historically during the Roman Republic and Georgian Britain (and worked well for the Havenite Legislaturists until the Pierre coup): to ensure that the flag officers were from the same class and even from the same families as the leading bureaucrats. There are hints that something like that is at least partially taking place in SLN, but it is not clear if it is due to conscious policy of the Mandarins.
However, there are many cases where such a policy is not enough on its own to prevent military coups followed by harsh military dictatorships. See for example the history of South America from the 19th century until now.

Do pardon my bold.

Thus is the impetus behind my thoughts of why Rajani wasn't "properly" replaced. Kingsford's only qualifications, as far as I can glean from textev, is seniority. That certainly shouldn't be the litmus test to pass for that position. God forbid the next senior in line be a Pavel Young, Elvis Santino, Byng or Crandall. It's preposterous. It is why I always thought Kingsford was a temporary cog in the machine.

Do forgive my asking this question, but my memory isn't what it used to be. I think. Not realizing that Rajani was the real power in the League when I read A Rising Thunder...


and the Malign had his testicles in their hands, then why set him up for the kill? Why not keep him around as long as possible? Why eliminate not just your most powerful "contact" but the most powerful man in the League, who you already have by the balls?

The exchanges between Kolokoltsov and Rajani always led me to believe that Kolokoltsov was the real power and that Rajani was a loose canon in control of the navy. Things such as him twisting Article Seven. And statements like "His civilian masters."

It is such a confusing power structure to me.

cthia wrote:Thus is the impetus behind my thoughts of why Rajani wasn't "properly" replaced. Kingsford's only qualifications, as far as I can glean from textev, is seniority. That certainly shouldn't be the litmus test to pass for that position.

Adm Kingsford was second in command/CINC Battle Fleet. He would have been vetted for either or both of those positions -- although the vetting in the SLN would have been primarily political.

Once Rajampet committed suicide, he would have taken command as next in the chain of command. There is textev that he would require an official confirmation hearing before officially becoming the CINC of the SLN. Kolokoltsov told him that, as far as he was concerned that was a mere formality and Kingsford had the job.

I don't know exactly where Adm Kingsford stands as far as seniority, but he got the position of CINC by being the Vice-CINC.

cthia wrote:It is such a confusing power structure to me.

Only because you try to micro-parse things looking for stuff that's not there.

1. Rajani was never the real power in the League. He was the real power in the League Navy. The Navy was not, prior to extremely recent events, anything close to the most important part of the League government.

2. The Mandarins are not his nominal civilian superiors; the nominal SecDef and elected officials are. They control beuracracies that are larger and more important to the League, and so can effectively make Rajani's political superiors issue him orders, but have no direct command authority over him.

Hegemon wrote:Somewhat off-topic:
I want to discuss about the real hole in SLN collective intelligence: why no Admiral had enough sense to see plainly that the Solarian League was ripe for a military coup and to seize the opportunity with both hands. What I mean is that if the Solarian public accepted for centuries to be ruled by unelected bureaucrats, it would hardly bat an eyelid to be ruled by another group of unelected bureaucrats, this time the ones commanding SDs and BCs. After all, this is what SLN Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet are: two additional bureaucracies to the five main ones, but with all the real firepower.

At the current point in the books* the coup would fail because the SLN is NOT even the top dog in the Solarian League. They've fallen behind a number SDFs.

Even if that wasn't the case the Navy doesn't have any ship building capability of its own as far as I can tell. Its not a self-maintaining organization. So you'd need to use the iron fist to get systems to dispense functional, non-trapped ships. Except Battle Fleet has zero experience with doing that, or even anything approaching it.

Frontier Fleet has a little experience with ruling via the iron fist, but they're used to using puppets and much less developed planets. So they might have the skill base to try it, but they have no incentive to work with the jackasses over in Battle Fleet. Why help Battle Fleet with its coup, when they could do the same in their own little areas? As is being done in the Maya sector.

Frontier Fleet can't perform the coup on their own. They don't have anything larger than a battlecruiser, so they have no way to stop Battle Fleet from dusting all their bases. I mean, they could try putting battlecruisers up against all those dreadnoughts, but I don't think it would work.

*Minus the GA. Assume they get suddenly wiped out by say... aliens making a hyperspace bypass. They didn't realize the Haven Sector was inhabited. The aliens are really sorry.

Hegemon wrote:This idea stuck me when I re-read the 2016 revised edition of Edward N. Luttwak's classic "Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook" He defines three preconditions for a military coup to be practicable: a) the political participation must be confined to a small fraction of the population; b) the target state must be substantially independent; c) the target state must have a political center, or, if there are several centers, these must be identifiable, and they must be politically, rather than ethnically, structured. The Solarian League meets all the three conditions !

The Solarian League is actually missing "a" and "c". The political participation is widely distributed, and the political centers are widely distributed. While at a Federal Level its concentrated, the Federal Level isn't really important.

Now what we DO have is Frontier Fleet governors and planetary governments looking to conquer their own little empire. We've seen an example in the Maya sector in the book, and we've heard references to the later in an info dump. So the real question is why hasn't the Solarian League exploded? Answer: Its about too.