Haven Victorious

runsforcelery wrote:Part of it was that the (accurate) rumors that Theisman had simply shot Saint-Just out of hand without even a pretense of due process left his escutcheon just a tad tarnished in her eyes . . . and suggested that he wasn't all that different from Saint-Just (and, of course, it was well known that Pritchart had been a leading terrorist, assassin, and murderer before the Pierre Coup and then served the SS as a political commissar).

runsforcelery wrote:snip
That, however, is secondary — if not tertiary — to the fact that all the evidence she possessed told her that there was no significant difference between the Theisman-Pritchart regime and the Pierre-Saint-Just regime. Both had come to power in a violent coup, both of them had ruthlessly eliminated the group previously in power, one of them was a self-confessed terrorist/assassin, and they were currently involved in a four-way (or more) civil war, so it wasn't at all clear for quite a while that they were even going to survive.

runsforcelery wrote:Part of it is that fact that she hated and distrusted all Peeps, and with damned good cause. Part of it was that as has been pointed out she had no idea if the Theisman-Pritchart government was ultimately going to stand or fall.

My point here is that it would never have occurred to her to send a treecat-augmented "fact-finding mission" to Nouveau Paris for a whole bunch of reasons, including the fact that right up until the very verge of Operation Thunderbolt, the treecats wouldn't have been able to communicate very much except "we like these guys" about what they were picking up.

tlb wrote:

GregD wrote:First, let's consider the outlines of a treaty. There's four types of systems that Manticore has conquered:
1: Uninhabited systems with strategic significance that Manticore won't give back
2: Uninhabited systems Manticore's willing to give back once there's no war
3: Inhabited systems Manticore would offer membership to
4: Inhabited systems Manticore does't want

A treaty where Manticore keeps the 1st, gives back the 2nd, the 3rd have a plebiscite with 3 options (perhaps ranked choice voting), & the 4th have a plebiscite with 2 options (stay independent or go back to Haven), plus whatever peace guarantees that Grayson / Harrington need.

Manticore gets sole control over which systems are in group 3, and which are in group 4.

There is one big flaw in your plan right here: how do Honor and Haven get to decide what systems (inhabited or not) that Manticore will want?

fallsfromtrees wrote:You are apparently missing one of the key points in RFC's response. A private diplomatic mission, no matter how successful, would set a precedent that Elizabeth was NOT willing to set. Although it would undermine the current administration, in her view that administration was not going to last forever, and she didn't want the precedent of independent diplomatic missions - which might well be used to undermine the monarchy and a favourable administration - - it might not happen during her reign, but she wasn't going to saddle Roger with that problem decades or centuries later.

Jonathan_S wrote:Edit - I see tlb managed to post a lot of this while I was composing this

Galactic Sapper wrote:I think it would be impractical - for reasons rfc enumerated and some that he didn't - but it would have been karmic justice to send Steadholder Harrington to Haven to negotiate a treaty in the name of every member of the Alliance except Manticore. It would be the mirror image of High Ridge betraying the Alliance by unilaterally accepting St. Just's cease-fire. With the approval of the Crown, the Protector, and the shadow PM, she would have negotiated a treaty that would be in Manticore's best interest as well as everyone else's. Presenting it to the Lords with the ultimatum of "approve this or our allies abandon us" would have toppled High Ridge no matter which option he took. Choosing to approve it would have taken a bit longer but that's about it.

It's an amusing concept, but Haven doesn't seem to get much out of this treaty. Sure the other members of the Alliance (OMoA) sign a peace treaty and take their fleets home (though Grayson is the only really significant one there) but Manticore has enough ships and they've rolled out defensive LAC bases during the ceasefire to continue to occupy all those systems with their fleet alone - so Haven doesn't get control of any the systems back.

I guess the OMoA could schedule plebiscites - but they'd be non-binding on Manticore. So if Manticoran domestic politics don't fall into line and sign on to the treaty then Haven has no obvious further things to give up as an incentive to negotiation. And if they resume war, even against just Manticore, just after singing a treaty that probably looks bad for them -- more reminders of how their previous regimes acted. Plus Grayson at least is going to be nervious about sitting on the sidelines after Haven goes on the offensive since they've been a target of their fleets before and if Manticore falls they know they can't stand on their own. So Haven can't even count on a treaty keeping the OMaA neutral should the RHN be ordered to use military force in an attempt to compel Manticore to agree to the treaty.


As far as I can see it's all downside to Haven. (I guess it might make it slightly harder for Manticore to justify a preemptive military decapitation strike - maybe. But don't put anything past a sufficiently panicked High Ridge)

GregD wrote:First, let's consider the outlines of a treaty. There's four types of systems that Manticore has conquered:
1: Uninhabited systems with strategic significance that Manticore won't give back
2: Uninhabited systems Manticore's willing to give back once there's no war
3: Inhabited systems Manticore would offer membership to
4: Inhabited systems Manticore does't want

A treaty where Manticore keeps the 1st, gives back the 2nd, the 3rd have a plebiscite with 3 options (perhaps ranked choice voting), & the 4th have a plebiscite with 2 options (stay independent or go back to Haven), plus whatever peace guarantees that Grayson / Harrington need.

Manticore gets sole control over which systems are in group 3, and which are in group 4.

tlb wrote:There is one big flaw in your plan right here: how do Honor and Haven get to decide what systems (inhabited or not) that Manticore will want?

GregD wrote:They don't. Manticore makes that decision when it accepts the Treaty.

It's not Haven's business, and it's not Grayson's, as to what planets Manticore makes offers to.

runsforcelery wrote:There are all kinds of reasons for Eloise not to have personally negotiated with or sent a special envoy, outside the High Ridge negotiators, to Haven. Part of it is constitutional, since she would have been stepping on a Parliamentary prerogative to do anything of the sort without the approval and support of the current government (which was High Ridge's). Part of it is that fact that she hated and distrusted all Peeps, and with damned good cause. Part of it was that as has been pointed out she had no idea if the Theisman-Pritchart government was ultimately going to stand or fall. Part of it was that the (accurate) rumors that Theisman had simply shot Saint-Just out of hand without even a pretense of due process left his escutcheon just a tad tarnished in her eyes . . . and suggested that he wasn't all that different from Saint-Just (and, of course, it was well known that Pritchart had been a leading terrorist, assassin, and murderer before the Pierre Coup and then served the SS as a political commissar).

My point here is that it would never have occurred to her to send a treecat-augmented "fact-finding mission" to Nouveau Paris for a whole bunch of reasons, including the fact that right up until the very verge of Operation Thunderbolt, the treecats wouldn't have been able to communicate very much except "we like these guys" about what they were picking up.

That, however, is secondary — if not tertiary — to the fact that all the evidence she possessed told her that there was no significant difference between the Theisman-Pritchart regime and the Pierre-Saint-Just regime. Both had come to power in a violent coup, both of them had ruthlessly eliminated the group previously in power, one of them was a self-confessed terrorist/assassin, and they were currently involved in a four-way (or more) civil war, so it wasn't at all clear for quite a while that they were even going to survive.

Frankly, it didn't matter who they were or how they might differ from the preceding regime(s). I mean, literally, it did not matter, for a bunch of reasons. One was that the Havenite navy was totally out-classed against the RMN. There was no way that any Havenite admiral was going to be stupid enough to go up against the Royal Manticoran Navy when Haven didn't even have podnoughts yet, much less the MDMs to put aboard them, and according to all of her intelligence agencies, that was the case. I mentioned that she had a little of the Manticoran hubris herself, but that's another way of saying that she was guided by the expert analysis of all of her intelligence agencies. And what they were telling her was that Haven had been totally defeated (militarily), whether or not Nouveau Paris had been occupied, and that — judging from the self-evident capabilities of the ships actually engaged in their civil war (bearing in mind that Theisman was deliberately concealing the existence of the SD(P)s being built at Bolthole) — there was no prospect whatsoever of Haven being able to successfully resume hostilities. That's why she was so focused on the domestic front.

tlb wrote:

GregD wrote:First, let's consider the outlines of a treaty. There's four types of systems that Manticore has conquered:
1: Uninhabited systems with strategic significance that Manticore won't give back
2: Uninhabited systems Manticore's willing to give back once there's no war
3: Inhabited systems Manticore would offer membership to
4: Inhabited systems Manticore does't want

A treaty where Manticore keeps the 1st, gives back the 2nd, the 3rd have a plebiscite with 3 options (perhaps ranked choice voting), & the 4th have a plebiscite with 2 options (stay independent or go back to Haven), plus whatever peace guarantees that Grayson / Harrington need.

Manticore gets sole control over which systems are in group 3, and which are in group 4.

tlb wrote:There is one big flaw in your plan right here: how do Honor and Haven get to decide what systems (inhabited or not) that Manticore will want?

GregD wrote:They don't. Manticore makes that decision when it accepts the Treaty.

It's not Haven's business, and it's not Grayson's, as to what planets Manticore makes offers to.

It is Haven's business also, that is part of what Manticore and Haven have to negotiate; which is why that cannot be settled for Manticore by just Harrington and Haven negotiating. Manticore gave up the chance to say take it or else, when they accepted the ceasefire and allowed things to drag on for about 4 years.

A treaty between the allies and Haven cannot be expected to solve all problems between Manticore and Haven.

Remember that lies about the eventual status of the occupied planets is what lead to the resumption of hostilities.

GregD wrote:Which is my point.

Grayson sending Steadholder Harrington to negotiate a peace treaty with Haven is not a "private diplomatic mission". Now, the fact that Steadholder Harrington is also Duchess Harrington, and that SH / DH has had a long talk with the Queen before heading off on the mission, means that any treaty reached will be acceptable to the Queen, and to the people of Manticore, is a nice benefit.

But the Treaty's being negotiated between Grayson and Haven.

The reason for Elizabeth to get on board is that they end of the war destroys her domestic enemies.

1: The fact that Harrington can get a Treaty, when the High Ridge gov't "couldn't", makes that gov't, and everyone associated with it, look bad in the public eye.

2: The end of the war ends a bunch of taxes the HRG was using to buy allies

3: The end of the war means they can't delay elections any longer, which means the San Martin Lords get added. Which means the power center in the Lords gets shifted significantly towards Elizabeth


The point isn't to be kind to those poor Havenites, the point is to eviscerate High Ridge et. al.