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How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?

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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by kzt   » Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:57 pm

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tlb wrote:Hitler included the Jews in the groups that had prevented a victory in WW1. It is true that ant-Semitism existed long before Hitler, but he seized on them as a partial explanation for the defeat.

Germany was probably the least anti-jew Western European country. (Pogrom is a Russian word.) Until Hitler.

A lot of Hitler's hostility was due to the historical involvement of Jewish people in the communist parties. And a bunch of other crazy myths and such, much of which were from Eastern Europe. I'm not sure how much of this was what he actually thought or how much was just finding a convenient villain. Or, for that matter, how much was preexisting in the Nazi party program before the German Army helped him take it over.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Maldorian   » Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:56 pm

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tlb wrote:
Among the variety of reasons for WW2, the yearning of the Germanic people for someone to rip apart the shameful Versailles Treaty was rather high on the list of how the National Socialist German Workers' Party and Adolf Hitler came to power. The hurt feelings and conspiracies also directly fed the anti-Semitism that helped fuel that rise.

If you want to point to the Great Depression as a contributor, that is fine; but it helped the process along, rather than starting something new.


The german people know that they have lost the war, but the point in the Treaty of Versailles what make them upset and open a way for Hitler was, that the Treaty declares, that the war was Germany´s fault and only Germany.

It was NOT Germany, who starts the war, it was Austria. The austrian throne heir was assasinated in Sarajevo / Serbia. Does Austria give the shame the the incompetent body guards? No! The whole country should pay for the live of one men.

Germany was allied with Austria and the stupid german emporer jumped imediatley the side of the austrian emporer and also declare war at serbia.

Serbia was allied with Russia, Russia was allied with France, France was allied with great Britain - Hello world war!

In an documentation about World War One they said, that Austria had the second most incompetent army of the war, only the later joined Italian Army was more incompetent. So, in the end Austria start the war, but Germany had to carry most of the weight of the war at all front lines, because the Austrians couldn´t do their job.

So, another country starts a war and you get all the blame for it. That was more important for the normal people then the high reparation payment and the Army limits in the Treaty of Versailles.

So, for Honorverse, don´t underestimate the Ego of a nation, especially if the media put gasoline into that fire.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by tlb   » Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:05 pm

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tlb wrote:Among the variety of reasons for WW2, the yearning of the Germanic people for someone to rip apart the shameful Versailles Treaty was rather high on the list of how the National Socialist German Workers' Party and Adolf Hitler came to power. The hurt feelings and conspiracies also directly fed the anti-Semitism that helped fuel that rise.

If you want to point to the Great Depression as a contributor, that is fine; but it helped the process along, rather than starting something new.

Maldorian wrote:The german people know that they have lost the war, but the point in the Treaty of Versailles what make them upset and open a way for Hitler was, that the Treaty declares, that the war was Germany´s fault and only Germany.

It was NOT Germany, who starts the war, it was Austria. The austrian throne heir was assasinated in Sarajevo / Serbia. Does Austria give the shame the the incompetent body guards? No! The whole country should pay for the live of one men.

Germany was allied with Austria and the stupid german emporer jumped imediatley the side of the austrian emporer and also declare war at serbia.

Serbia was allied with Russia, Russia was allied with France, France was allied with great Britain - Hello world war!

In an documentation about World War One they said, that Austria had the second most incompetent army of the war, only the later joined Italian Army was more incompetent. So, in the end Austria start the war, but Germany had to carry most of the weight of the war at all front lines, because the Austrians couldn´t do their job.

So, another country starts a war and you get all the blame for it. That was more important for the normal people then the high reparation payment and the Army limits in the Treaty of Versailles.

So, for Honorverse, don´t underestimate the Ego of a nation, especially if the media put gasoline into that fire.

Modern historians say there is enough blame to go around and so do not point specifically at Germany; but there is a case that can be made that Germany bears some extra blame.

After Germany foolishly got out of The League of the Three Emperors (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia), Russia signed a pact with France that enabled French investors to contribute to the modernization of Russia. After a few years, German planners realized that they were now faced with the possibility of a two front war and more importantly the modernization of Russia meant that before many decades the enormous Russian Army would be equipped in a way comparable to their Army. Factions began gossip about the need for a preventative war before parity was achieved, however that would require Austria-Hungary to join in order to counter the disparity in manpower.

Meanwhile Austria-Hungary, a multi-ethnic nation, was having trouble with Serbian dreams of a "reunited" nation. The Austrian Chancellor dreamed of a war with Serbia that would squash those dreams and protect his country from the nationalistic forces that could tear it apart. The problem was that Russia and Serbia shared a Slavic nature and any war might not be limited unless Germany could keep Russia from becoming involved.

Despite provocations and minor conflicts, Kaiser Wilhelm and Archduke Ferdinand (who were friends) had acted to prevent any major war prior to 1914.

With the assassination of the Archduke, the Kaiser would no longer act as a peacemaker because regicide must be punished. Germany gave Austria-Hungary the "blank check" to act against Serbia and may have promised to keep Russia from interfering.

The situation at that point was that Austria-Hungary was hoping for a limited war against Serbia alone. Meanwhile some in the German General Staff felt that this was the time to strike Russia before a two front war became unwinnable.

Now comes the part for which I blame Germany: the General Staff never developed plans to defend on one front and attack on the other; the only plan (which may not have been feasible with WW1 technology) was to go on the offensive on both fronts. When Russia started a partial mobilization (something Germany could not do), Germany felt it had to strike.

In the absence of a German mobilization and strike, Austria-Hungary (which proved incapable of conquering Serbia) would have had to back down and the war would have been limited. But instead the German Army tried to implement its plan: to strike hardest through neutral Belgium, hoping to knock France out of the war and then release units from the Western front to join those in the East to fight Russia.

By attacking France prior to meeting Russia, by violating Belgium neutrality, by telling Austria-Hungary to go to war with Serbia and not to worry about the consequences Germany managed to turn a limited regional conflict into a war across the globe.

PS. When we look on it now, we wonder how people could mess up so badly. We need to keep in mind that these countries did not have large professional foreign services; instead there might just be a handful of people at each location (or not if it was vacation time) trying to communicate over the telegraph, while also trying to get am erratic ruler to make a firm decision. The effort Germany made to keep Russia from getting involved was mainly the Kaiser writing notes to his cousin, the Czar (who had gotten bad advice from him in the Russo-Japanese conflict).
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:58 am

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tlb wrote:The stab in the back conspiracy was never about the Allies nor the Versailles Treaty; the treaty was so punitive that it inspired resentment by itself. The myth of the stab in the back was that Germany still had a chance to win the war, but was sabotaged by communists etc. into accepting the armistice. The army was betrayed by fat cats and war profiteers (and any other group that you might want to demonize). This is "proved" by the war being stopped while the front was still in France.

Hitler included the Jews in the groups that had prevented a victory in WW1. It is true that ant-Semitism existed long before Hitler, but he seized on them as a partial explanation for the defeat.



That's why it doesn't make sense in the context of this argument mainly because the League actually was stabbed in the back by a great number of it's own military officers and civilian leaders but ultimately they would have started the war eventually and promptly lost the war all on their own even without the MA.

What it boils down to is that if the GA keeps to rational and lenient terms the League or whatever is left of the League will spend the next 150 years keeping the SLN down and basically each member heavily fortifying their system.

They might join in the hunt for the MA or more likely sit it out and stay out of the GA's way while rebuilding Sol's economy and building a small but competent military supported by the hundreds of SDF's.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by tlb   » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:07 am

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tlb wrote:The stab in the back conspiracy was never about the Allies nor the Versailles Treaty; the treaty was so punitive that it inspired resentment by itself. The myth of the stab in the back was that Germany still had a chance to win the war, but was sabotaged by communists etc. into accepting the armistice. The army was betrayed by fat cats and war profiteers (and any other group that you might want to demonize). This is "proved" by the war being stopped while the front was still in France.

Hitler included the Jews in the groups that had prevented a victory in WW1. It is true that ant-Semitism existed long before Hitler, but he seized on them as a partial explanation for the defeat.

Sigs wrote:That's why it doesn't make sense in the context of this argument mainly because the League actually was stabbed in the back by a great number of it's own military officers and civilian leaders but ultimately they would have started the war eventually and promptly lost the war all on their own even without the MA.

What it boils down to is that if the GA keeps to rational and lenient terms the League or whatever is left of the League will spend the next 150 years keeping the SLN down and basically each member heavily fortifying their system.

They might join in the hunt for the MA or more likely sit it out and stay out of the GA's way while rebuilding Sol's economy and building a small but competent military supported by the hundreds of SDF's.

You still have it twisted around: you tried to insist that the people of the League would know the truth and try to make things right; the stab in the back conspiracy was used as an analogy to suggest that it was equally probable that the people of the League would refuse to accept the truth of the League's misdeeds and instead project them onto a scapegoat.

Looking instead at the whole story arc: it is figuratively true that both the League and Haven were stabbed in the back by the Malign. They were subverted to create the conditions for a war that was intended to destroy both, leaving the Renaissance Factor to collect the pieces and lead the survivors into a brave new future.

PS. You still have produced no support for your incredible statement that WW2 did not result from the resentments of WW1.
Sigs wrote:At the end of the day World War two did not come about because the Germans felt like they were backstabbed during WW1, it came about because of a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with hurt feelings and conspiracies from the Great War.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Sigs   » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:05 am

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tlb wrote:You still have it twisted around: you tried to insist that the people of the League would know the truth and try to make things right; the stab in the back conspiracy was used as an analogy to suggest that it was equally probable that the people of the League would refuse to accept the truth of the League's misdeeds and instead project them onto a scapegoat.

Any number of 10,000 potential candidates within the League.

Why did the Mandarins attack Cachelot, Hypatia, Maize, Snyder, Waterfall, Golem, Kenniac and Bryant? To Send a message...right? If the Mandarins were sending a message to all the neutrals and the League members as well we can safely assume that the League members were smart enough to catch the meaning of the message especially when members of the real leadership of the League make comments about sending intervention battalions to decapitate a legitimate system government to install a puppet that the Mandarins approve of. Add to that the fact that they instead send 100 BC's and 70 Lighter Combatants to destroy the orbital Infrastructure of a League member while not willing to allow said member to evacuate all of it's citizens from said infrastructure. When people want to send a message and they do it in such an obvious fashion most people tends to believe them.

I am in no way saying that no one in the League will claim something similar to what Went on in Germany, what I am saying is that realistically there would be significantly more people who would see the blame in the League since the League and the SLN made such a public effort to send them the message "Leave the League and we will destroy your industry, economy and kill a lot of your people."

Ultimately I believe in a situation like that the members of the League that remain would make sure that they never again put themselves in a situation where they have no protection for their system against an enemy like the GA and never again give the SLN the power to terrorize the League with warships. I would demand in a situation like that a much reduced SLN which can handle most threats on it's own because it will not require to protect any of the League's members since they will all have their own SDFs. Limit the SLN's power to make war and drag the member systems into a war they don't want to fight but also make the SDF's or part thereof the SLN Reserve. Which would mean in a clearly defined emergency or time of war the League assembly can make laws to mobilize the reserve with the approval of the actual system governments not just their representative in the capital.

The SLN would have the senior leadership and can periodically rotate through the SDF's by mobilizing some for maneuvers but they will never have enough on their own to threaten more than two or three Systems.

My point is that the League members will find who to blame, whether it is the MA, the GA or members of their own government and military but it doesn't matter, the only groups they will fear is the SLN and whoever murdered 50 million people in Beowulf. They will give the SLN enough to deal with some problems, but not enough to deal with any problem without asking for assistance from the SDF's and few member systems will willingly send their SDF's for the SLN's bidding since that would leave them exposed and also cost them money since after all the systems that build those ships will be the one that is paying for them, maintaining them and manning them. In a real emergency the system government would be obligated to assist, in a Raging Justice situation no so much.


PS. You still have produced no support for your incredible statement that WW2 did not result from the resentments of WW1.
It resulted from resentment of the treaty but not the war. They went to war, fought a war and subsequently lost said war. They received a peace treaty they were not happy with and it contributed to the next war just like hundreds of previous wars were started in part because of treaties that were perceived as unjust all throughout history many of them in and around Europe itself. Wars breed resentment because someone usually wins and someone usually loses, in World War 1 that was Germany and their allies. The loss of prestige and the resentment from the Treaty did contribute to World War 2 but it was by no means the dominant reason, there were many factors into play that allowed Hitler and the Nazi's to gain power in the first place, few wars in history have such a simple and straight forward reason for starting, just like the Assassination of the Archduke wasn't the cause of and reason for World War 1 it just happened to be the spark that started the war, if it wasn't the assassination it would have been something else a day, week or even a year later but the situation was such that a war was almost inevitable.

Ultimately anyone that remains in the League would be far to weary of a strong unchecked central government backed by a strong unchecked navy to worry about revenge or lay blame.

The League members as essentially a nation within a nation, the SLN gave them protection and insulated them from the realities outside the League, now for the first time ever they lost that protection and in fact are going to think long and hard what steps they can take to prevent atrocities not so much because they worry about the Verge and Protectorates, but because now they are the target since they cant hide behind the SLN and ignore what is happening past the Hyper limit because the people that insulated them were planning to beat them into submission. Once the systems are fully awake to the new reality their media outlets will rush to provide much anticipated news from the League and beyond and it will not be so easy to control them, when you have a handful of media outlets that control the flow of news to the rest of the League it is a lot easier to manage, when you have 5,000 media outlets from 500 League systems fighting for information it will be a lot harder to control.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by tlb   » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 am

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tlb wrote:PS. You still have produced no support for your incredible statement that WW2 did not result from the resentments of WW1.

Sigs wrote:It resulted from resentment of the treaty but not the war. They went to war, fought a war and subsequently lost said war. They received a peace treaty they were not happy with and it contributed to the next war just like hundreds of previous wars were started in part because of treaties that were perceived as unjust all throughout history many of them in and around Europe itself. Wars breed resentment because someone usually wins and someone usually loses, in World War 1 that was Germany and their allies. The loss of prestige and the resentment from the Treaty did contribute to World War 2 but it was by no means the dominant reason, there were many factors into play that allowed Hitler and the Nazi's to gain power in the first place, few wars in history have such a simple and straight forward reason for starting, just like the Assassination of the Archduke wasn't the cause of and reason for World War 1 it just happened to be the spark that started the war, if it wasn't the assassination it would have been something else a day, week or even a year later but the situation was such that a war was almost inevitable.

Very interesting, but it is somewhat artificial to separate the war from the treaty that ended the war.

Also, it may be true that a war (such as WW1) had a certain historical inevitability. But that still leaves the question open of why the war that started in 1914 was not just another Balkan War, instead of the resultant global conflict. Historical inevitability is not the same thing as strict determinism, there can still be contingent factors. Which might be why we mostly talk about inevitability after the fact, to reassure us that there was nothing that could be done (and it certainly may be true that there really was nothing that could be done). There is a suspicion that those who talk about inevitability before the fact, see an advantage in something happening and are trying to talk it along.
Last edited by tlb on Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by kzt   » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:46 am

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The assumption that the SL has a strong central government is unsupported by any evidence. The SL has a very weak central government that is in charge of nothing that the Leage member states consider important.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:31 pm

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Sigs wrote:
kzt wrote:Well, consider what happens when the next president of Haven gets elected and decides they don't really love Manticore? And the evidence is there are a lot of people in that camp.


By that time the economy of the RHN would be significantly connected that most leaders would think quite hard before they shoot their economy in the head by separating from the GA. Plus you know the whole thing about being on a 600 year old hit list, at this point it is in the best interest for everyone to remain together because like it or not the Republic of Haven has quite a few new enemies and it is so much better if they had the RMN and the GSN as well as the BSDF in support rather than watch them all fall.


Just because the President wont serve another term doesn't mean that an endorsement from her wont make significant problems for any opposition candidates.

I don't think Manticore will take much comfort in that. History isn't short on leaders perfectly willing to shoot their economy in the head by making war on a large or critical trading partner.

You could almost argue that the willingness to cause a major war is almost incompatible with the reasonableness needed to avoid crippling your economy by poor choice of who to go to war against. How reassuring that only someone crazy enough to go to war with Manitcore would be willing to cripple their economy by going to war with Manticore.
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Re: How to downgrade the fleet without upsetting the public?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:17 pm

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tlb wrote:
Relax wrote:I haven't read all of history(I only have one life), but that which I have read, the only war which ENDS, ends when you completely and UTTERLY defeat someone. If you go the "peace half-way compromise, let them keep their "HONOR" " BS, all that happens is the exact same war a few decades later over the exact same issues. When the next power hungry politician rises to power who needs an issue to grab hold of for either their own wealth or power, grabs the existing festering one.

I am not sure that is true. The English and French have fought fiercely over the centuries without ever having one completely defeat the other (post 1066, which was a complete defeat that did not prevent future wars); yet there is no current pressure to fight each other.

If you study the end of WW1, then it becomes evident that some of the German resentment was over how harsh and punitive the treaty conditions were. I am not sure what more needed to be done to qualify as a "completely and UTTER defeat". The terms were so harsh that the victors did not continue to enforce them and in no way were a "peace half-way compromise, let them keep their HONOR" agreement.
And then France was no longer the largest continental power and England switches from fighting her to allying with her against England's former ally Prussia when it coalesced into Germany and looked to dominate Europe (And first England and France teamed up against another of England's Napoleonic allies, Russia, in the Crimean war).

Also neither side of the war of 1812 inflicted an UTTER defeat - yet the US and England never went back to war with each other.


It seems to me that changing the beliefs or national interests can be plenty to avoid going back to war; and UTTERLY defeating an enemy is only one possible way to bring about that change (and it's not guaranteed to)
Last edited by Jonathan_S on Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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