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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:14 pm

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tlb wrote:
kzt wrote:An O5 with 20 years of service does not earn the mean US income. A US Navy O5 over 20 earns 104,000/year before allowances and additional pay.

The Mean income in the US is 36,500/year.

I am sure that you meant the "median" income is 36,500 per year. I did try to find the average income, but did not succeed; although the average taxable income for a single person or head of household is easy to find and it is in the same range as the median.
Isn't the salary of an O5 for a given number of years the same across the services (like every pay grade)?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-per-capita

OK, kzt is right on this one. Per capita income in the US is ~40% of an O5 salary. Median income is only slightly lower than the per capita value. However, the variance between Switzerland, a small and very wealthy nation, and China is ~10x. That is Switzerland has a per capita GDP 10 times China. If we use the variance between Luxembourg, US$108,000, and the average per capita GDP of the poorer South American countries and the African countries, about US$2,000; we see about a 50 multiple. For this measure to be an accurate, one must assume that the percentage variance of per capita GDP for Earth now will remain consistent in the Honorverse. Technology will reduce the percentage variance quite a bit but the sheer scale of required investment may well maintain that variance over time.

I think using that multiple of 50 for a per capita GDP percentage variance for the TQ and Silesia compared to the SKM may well be about right as of UH. Any smaller multiple wouldn't support how the SKM could even keep the RMN in shouting distance of the PRN and later of the RHN. I don't see how the SKM could have survived against Haven unless the per capita GDP of the SKM's 3 worlds exceeded Haven's per capita GDP by a multiple of at least 30 through a combination of inefficiency on Haven's part and wealth on the SKM's part. Then toss in the MA and the odds are manageable in the First Havenite War.


Let's recalculate values based on pre Oyster Bay economic activity. Assuming the average population of the SEM outside the Old SKM is 2bn and the per capita GDP of the Old SKM is 50x that of all the other SEM worlds on average; the GDP of the average SEM world outside the Old SKM is 1% of the Old SKM. The SEM GDP then is only ~1.4x the GDP of the Old SKM pre Oyster Bay.

Let's further assume that the developing nations of the SEM grow at a sustained 15% annual rate while the developed worlds grow at a sustained annual rate of 3% measured from the pre-Oyster Bay numbers. The Old SKM numbers will grow massively as it rebuilds then slow down over time. Using that 3% is a good WAG for how the Old SKM can grow between UH and the next mainline book. Assume the SEM adds 10 core Worlds incuding Beowulf and they average per capita GDP of 50% of the Old SKM or the SKM per capita GDP is 2x their average and their average population is equal to the Old SKM's 4bn.

These assumptions generate the following values after 25 years. The developing SEM worlds will have ~30% of the pre-Oyster Bay per capita GDP, the Old SKM will double their per capita GDP and the Core World SEM members will have equaled the pre-Oyster Bay Old SKM per capita GDP. The 40 developing SEM worlds, the 10 Core SEM worlds and the Old SKM will have increased the aggragate SEM GDP to ~25 times the pre-Oyster Bay SKM GDP. The developing SEM worlds will contribute 7 (in aggregate) times the output of the Old SKM and the aggregate Core members will contribute 5 times the Old SKM output.

The only way this is possible is if the SEM is instrumental in building the infrastructure of the ex-Protectorates and the Verge. Every member of the SEM will be building the basic infrstructure packages for those star nations until each under-developed world can be self sustaining in their further development. 25 years is not nearly long enough to accomplish this and so the accelerated per capita GDP growth over that period is very achievable. That accelerated growth comes at the expense of Solarian transstellars, which will be a drag on the SL2.0 Core Worlds for quite some time as they recoup and reallocate their assets over the next 25 years. That and have to fund their new federal government without the Protectorates' contribution any longer.

Relatively, the SEM will get richer and more powerful as the SL2.0 stagnates and the RF may or may not keep up on a per capita basis, but will expand their numbers significantly. None of these calculations even include Haven and the other Grand Alliance members. The RMN then has approximately 4-5 times more volume of space to cover with 25 times the resource base and 30-40 times the population.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:54 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Considering that the RMN has already been patrolling Silesia, the TQ only adds about 3-4 times the volume of space to cover. The extra hulls and personnel can patrol additional GA members in the Verge and ez-protectorates.

I'm pretty sure the RMN is having to station far more ships and personnel in Silesia than then did back when they were just providing anti-piracy patrols (when and where they could).

Before that it was the Silesian Navy's job (poorly done as it was) to provide system security and enforcement of borders. Manticore just sent the odd destroyer or cruiser to trawl for pirates.

So basing manning numbers for Talbott on the historical levels for Silesia seems likely to be wildly off...
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:08 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Considering that the RMN has already been patrolling Silesia, the TQ only adds about 3-4 times the volume of space to cover. The extra hulls and personnel can patrol additional GA members in the Verge and ez-protectorates.

I'm pretty sure the RMN is having to station far more ships and personnel in Silesia than then did back when they were just providing anti-piracy patrols (when and where they could).

Before that it was the Silesian Navy's job (poorly done as it was) to provide system security and enforcement of borders. Manticore just sent the odd destroyer or cruiser to trawl for pirates.

So basing manning numbers for Talbott on the historical levels for Silesia seems likely to be wildly off...

But I am not. I am making a relative comparison between the pre-Oyster Bay and post annexation of Silesia demand on the RMN to that of a future SEM that includes the TQ and some number of Core World members. I haven't worked into the mix a reduced demand for the cessation of the Second Havenite War. I have no clue as to the actual numbers the RMN will require. All I did was to compare the resource base to the volume of space the RMN has to protect. That ratio suggests to me that the cost per capita to support the RMN's future mission will be lower for that future SEM.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:10 pm

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The RMN will be not only patrolling half of Silesia, it will be compleatly taking over ALL of the duties for that half of not only the Confederation navy but that of the individual systems that had any hyperspace capable forces. That would be Confed members and any indepent systems. Granted, RMN is going to make a meaningful effort to bring what it can of the Confederation Navy and independent SDFs into the RMN, but that includes winnowing though all of the above to eliminated those with ties to varioius criminal orignaizations and some that will just be incompentnt.

That's massive compaired to "only" sending various ships out as independent commerce protection roles, particularly anti-piracy. It is also going to be an active presence to back up the administration of both their half and of the oversight of the various planitary governments for two important missions. One is to help set standards and enforce (or be available to enforce ) SEM law in the cluster. Two is that it is going to assist in indentifying and removing various people and organizations from said governments along with criminal activity.

Sure, there are hundres if not thousands of Confed Navy personnel who are honest and, given the opportunity, will do the jobs expected of them under SEM law. Same goes for the politicians and various government employees. But not all of them. It is also going to take carefull yet straight forward handling of both violations and schooling people in the way SEM works and not to fall into the trap of presuming that the old business-as-usual under certain Confed leaders was going to be tolerated.

More ships and people. Even if they do accept into service and use existing Confed and indepent SDF ships in the short term to bolster the hull numbers and coverage, suitably augemented with RMN personal.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:20 pm

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It is going to take a fair amount of time before Manticore starts exporting the goods and equipment to rebuild or just build up the capabilites of either the Verge or Protectorates. At the moment, they are in the the process of bootstrapping themselves back into 1) space stations, 2) obrital manufacturing, 3) training people for said manufacturing, 4) spending a crapload of money paying Beowulf, (and Haven and others) for the things they need to build the things they need and help train essentialy civlians to both operate/run the new bulding of facilites (as well as build it and the new yards) and to start producing a daunting number of thigns from consumer goods to naval hardware and weapons that Manticore used to produce but now needs to import.
Yeah, they do have a very large pool of merchant spacers and merchant marine shipping. That will help since that can- once things start to regularize in trade- they will probably regain a large portion of the carrying business. The thing is, a lot of that trade also used to contain a large component of MMM carrying Manticorian goods outbound and now it is probable that the ships making the runs from the binary system to the Junction are not getting much cargo on the trips out to theJunction and have to fill that capacity only by picking up freight transloaded by the Junction or fill those empty spaces on the routes they are building.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:41 pm

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There are 6 Core Worlds that have had their industrial infrastructure gutted but have not lost the personnel needed to run that infrastructure. That suggests a huge number of potential professional and vocational instructors that are looking for employment. Those Core Worlds will likely not only join the GA but may also join the SEM.

That sort of capacity to teach the Verge and Protectorate worlds about the necessary technology to use the infrastructure waiting to be built will speed up development quite a bit. Between one thing and another scheduling classes from those worlds getting their infrastructure built seems like a wise approach. By the time those 6 Core Worlds have their infrastructure rebuilt, they will have taught a solid cadre to carry on the teaching in those developing worlds.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Theemile   » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:43 am

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PeterZ wrote:There are 6 Core Worlds that have had their industrial infrastructure gutted but have not lost the personnel needed to run that infrastructure. That suggests a huge number of potential professional and vocational instructors that are looking for employment. Those Core Worlds will likely not only join the GA but may also join the SEM.

That sort of capacity to teach the Verge and Protectorate worlds about the necessary technology to use the infrastructure waiting to be built will speed up development quite a bit. Between one thing and another scheduling classes from those worlds getting their infrastructure built seems like a wise approach. By the time those 6 Core Worlds have their infrastructure rebuilt, they will have taught a solid cadre to carry on the teaching in those developing worlds.


Whatever infrastructure Manticore and friends have built to rebuild it's infrastructure will be busy the next few years. If you have a facility manufacturing factory modules , you could be pumping them out at max rate for years to come.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:15 am

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Theemile wrote:
PeterZ wrote:There are 6 Core Worlds that have had their industrial infrastructure gutted but have not lost the personnel needed to run that infrastructure. That suggests a huge number of potential professional and vocational instructors that are looking for employment. Those Core Worlds will likely not only join the GA but may also join the SEM.

That sort of capacity to teach the Verge and Protectorate worlds about the necessary technology to use the infrastructure waiting to be built will speed up development quite a bit. Between one thing and another scheduling classes from those worlds getting their infrastructure built seems like a wise approach. By the time those 6 Core Worlds have their infrastructure rebuilt, they will have taught a solid cadre to carry on the teaching in those developing worlds.


Whatever infrastructure Manticore and friends have built to rebuild it's infrastructure will be busy the next few years. If you have a facility manufacturing factory modules , you could be pumping them out at max rate for years to come.

Ayup. Even after they rebuilt the damage from the war, those facilities will be pumping out factory modules for export. There are many, many developing nations willing to mortgage their futures to buy factory modules of all varieties. That export market is huge and will sustain economic growth for many decades to come. With that market as a core income stream for the SEM developing nations to use as financial leverage, the can afford to expand their infrastructure development very rapidly.

Upon reflection I think many of those out of work industrial workers with a knack for it will make more teaching that returning to their old jobs. Wage inflation in key industrial jobs will be huge in many up and coming regions. Educating enough workers to meet demand will pay handsomely for quite some time because investors will have big incentives to set up those schools. Heck, whoever sells the infrastructure will want to offer a turnkey comprehensive package to developing nations which includes that training.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:24 am

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Do not forget that Manticore was no doubt in the business of exporting factory modules before Oyster Bay and the imposition of Case Lacoon. Not all of those Manticoran freighters that returned were hauling rubber doggy turds from Hong Kong. Given financial realities, I would wager that the ships in transit were probably hauling factory modules with a manufacturing capacity equal to a minimum of 10% of Manticore's pre Oyster Bay level and more likely in excess of 25%. Given a few years of not building new SD(P)s on a massive scale to enable reinvestment, Manticore should be able to rebuild its industrial infrastructure in only a few years.

Of course deploying 8th Fleet to pay a courtesy call to Yeldin could not only neutralize the industrial capacity of an implacable enemy, dismantling that manufacturing capacity and hauling it home to Manticore and Grayson as well as Beawulf would bootstrap reconstruction.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:09 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Do not forget that Manticore was no doubt in the business of exporting factory modules before Oyster Bay and the imposition of Case Lacoon. Not all of those Manticoran freighters that returned were hauling rubber doggy turds from Hong Kong. Given financial realities, I would wager that the ships in transit were probably hauling factory modules with a manufacturing capacity equal to a minimum of 10% of Manticore's pre Oyster Bay level and more likely in excess of 25%. Given a few years of not building new SD(P)s on a massive scale to enable reinvestment, Manticore should be able to rebuild its industrial infrastructure in only a few years.

Of course deploying 8th Fleet to pay a courtesy call to Yeldin could not only neutralize the industrial capacity of an implacable enemy, dismantling that manufacturing capacity and hauling it home to Manticore and Grayson as well as Beawulf would bootstrap reconstruction.

That is a wager that seems unlikely to be correct, but impossible to disprove.

Now that the League is doing whatever it is doing as a result of UH, it also seems unlikely that the GA will do more than whatever it was that they did in UH. No spoilers intended.
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